ModelS8794
Member
Why would you not just charge in centralia for 5 or 10 minutes if you were round tripping from Seattle to Portland?
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Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Why would you not just charge in centralia for 5 or 10 minutes if you were round tripping from Seattle to Portland?
Citizen-T
Active Member
A rising tide lifts all ships.
Getting others to take up the EV banner will only help Tesla for a very long time.
Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 4
EVNow
Well-Known Member
May not be enough for my Portland travel. Anyway, that is an example.
Essentially you go to a particular destination and want a quick charge in the city before heading out. May be they can install a supercharger close to the city instead of in the city. But, competition can install dozens of chargers in the city (as well as in between).
wcalvin
Member
But there is a supercharger midday from Seattle to Vancouver BC. Ditto for Portland. Pausing 20 minutes each time through Centralia and Burlington should solve your problem. What am I missing?
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I might want to hit a number of spots in Portland or Vancouver (or San Francisco or LA). So, charging at the nearest charger on the freeway might not be enough (or convenient enough).
Oh no, i do know Infinity. But some people (analysts, and sometimes even here on these forums) talk about the Leaf being a competitor and abot how more advanced it will be by the time Gen3 is out. Now when (not if) Nissan put that technology into an Infinity, that will be real comeptition, I agree. But not as a Nissan, as that brand has different customers. That's all I'm saying.
BTW, while Infinity is sold in Europe as well, I think a Tesla Model S will much sooner become an alternative to the German premium brands in the eye of the welathy consumers. The green aspect, the cool touchscreen interface, the whole coolness factor associated with the brand will really sell it. I think when it comes to premium brands (of any industry), perception, "being seen in it" is equally as important as the actual quality and specs. What brand you choose tells the wo0lrd who you are, I guess.
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I think you made a really good list there, there is just 1 thing I'm missing: chargers.
With a 100k car you can get away with limtied public charging. Just my 2 cents, but i think those who buy a 100k car usually have a garage they can charge in, plus they may have more than 1 car so if they need to take a trip outside the current Supercharger network, they can drive something else. But for people buying a 35k car, that might be their only vehicle, and most of them may not have a garage. Especially in Europe, some may live in a city and park on the street.
Building out the Supercharger network world wide (at least their main markets) may be the most important part of the preparation for Gen3. E.g. there is currently no Supercharger built or planned in the Czech Republic, Slovakia or Hungary. Do you know how many Germans, Austrians and even Dutch do business in our region? It is not unlikely for them to drive here on a regular basys. So even if sales of premium brands is less then in Western Europe, for their main markets it may be of high importance to quickly charge their cars over here for the return trip, or to travel further to their factories in the countriside in these countries.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I'm not sure Tesla could build out a supercharger network that can realistically cover the volume of cars that Gen3 could represent. We are already seeing bottle necks at some superchargers with 15K Models S's, what happens when there are 150K+ Gen3's plus a few more years of S and X production. There will need to be other fast charge options built out by someone other than Tesla. Supercharging may be free for life but Tesla doesn't guarantee that you won't have to wait a long time to use it, and it might be worth your time to seek other charging at other locations, even if you have to pay for it.
Johann Koeber
Happy Owner
Exactly.
SC is free as far as $$$ are involved.
the cost will be time spent
a) waiting for a charge spot to become available
b) charging time
TESLA is adressing b) by faster chargers; this potentially reduces waiting time as well
Battery swap if time is precious.
i'm not sure if SC is for GenIII, and if so will it be free?
SC is free as far as $$$ are involved.
the cost will be time spent
a) waiting for a charge spot to become available
b) charging time
TESLA is adressing b) by faster chargers; this potentially reduces waiting time as well
Battery swap if time is precious.
i'm not sure if SC is for GenIII, and if so will it be free?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
It may be a more expensive option for the Gen3, since the "free" charging is actually paid for upfront in the purchase price of the 85, and is an extra $2-$2.5K option in the 60. Might be a $3-$4K option in the G3, which would somewhat lower demand and pay for extra chargers. Personally I'd be fine with a pay per use supercharger model for the G3 since I'd rarely use it but would like the option occasionally.
I agree that continuing to expand public charging options is important, but more and more of these are becoming available now and that will continue to grow over the 3 years until Gen III deliveries begin. I don't agree that most people buying a 35K car won't have a garage to charge overnight. There are scads of people in small towns and suburbs and even cities who have garages. Even if Tesla has a good competitor in 3 years in that 35K price point, they and the competitor won't be able to produce enough EVs to meet the demand which will be in the millions, even if folks without garages have few local charging options.
ModelS8794
Member
I think this sort of mental calculus is a real barrier to MS style EV adoption, but that barrier is phisically overcome by the supercharger network as currently designed. The psychological barrier, however, will take some longer period to overcome. probably once folks like EVNow see a handful of colleagues or friends using the infrastructure successfully they'll be more willing to internalize the value proposition.
I think he was talking from the european perspective. For the US market I agree with you.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
LOL. We haven't used anything other than Leaf for over 2 years. Your comment just shows lack of appreciation of various scenarios.
I suggest you read threads here where people are complaining about lack of destination chargers.
You are right, I was pointing out the lack of charging infrastructure in Europe, and especially Central and Eastern Europe. I also noted, that even if you consider Western Europe as the current target for Tesla, you have to remember how closly the EU economy is integrated and that there is significant business travel between Western and Eastern Europe, which often involves driving as planes only get you as far as the capital of the smaller countries. (Just trying to add some perspective... I always smile when a US company talks abou doing business in "Europe". What they usually mean is delivering to the UK, Germany, France, and maybe the richer Benelux or Northern states. Of course, the EU alone has 28 countries, with over 500 million people...).
Nevertheless I still think, that for Gen3 we would need many more chargers in the US as well and in cities too. I was watching a "What if..." documentary on Nat Geo the other day about oil disappearing form Earth by tomorrow morning. In that they said abou 50% of the US population lives un the suburbs. So turning that upside down, would you want to exclude the other 50% (in the cities) from Tesla's potential market? Even if you assume, Tesla's Gen3 customers will be the middle class who are more likely to live in the suburbs, that's excluding a lot of people. And even if, as some of you corretly pointed out, Tesla alone could never replace all car manufacturers, you still probably don't want to limit the company's reach to home owners only. (Enter Europe, where living in an apartment and parking on the street is even more common.)
Now, in the same documentary, they also said the US alone has more than 100k petrol stations. Even if we agree that EVs would never need that many as some do charge at home, Tesla could never build a full replacement network on their own. That's why (in another thread) I was arguing for Tesla partnering up with someone or more "someones", large retail or fast food chains. Now they may only provide the IP, blueprints for the SCs, not actual money, but they have to be on top of this. We can't really expect Exxon or Shell knocking on Elon's door, begging him to allow installing SCs on their existing petrol stations, can we?
I find the hardest things about technology is understanding what are linear vs non linear effects and understanding the compounding effect of networks. When I consider gen 3, I don't worry to much about launch - not the likely $45k+ price, the guesstimate of 200 mile range or the charging infrastructure in the us or eu in 2017/2018.
What interests me much, much, much more is the effective price, range and infrastructure in 2023/2024. I think tesla has demonstrated that they know how ride this curve - remember the model S was supposed to do this for 50k, but the lack of complaints is indicative of their success regardless of hitting the bullseye right away. My bet is long pure EV.
Think back 20 years ago. No Internet (hey I had email in '89, so no semantics on web vs Internet please), mobile computing basically non existent (I also had the early compaq "portable" computer to use in 88/89), no widespread use of advanced materials, almost zero recombinant protein therapeutics, no patient level DNA diagnostics... Get the picture?
this is as much of a bet on management teams around a major disruption as anything else.
Who do you think will win? Who is thinking ahead? Who understands this the best? Who can move past their own sacred cows? Who is subject to internal inertia?
Who gets the best talent? Where does that talent have the biggest impact? If you were/ are a hotshot battery or automotive engineer that REALLY believed in EV where would you want to work.?
What interests me much, much, much more is the effective price, range and infrastructure in 2023/2024. I think tesla has demonstrated that they know how ride this curve - remember the model S was supposed to do this for 50k, but the lack of complaints is indicative of their success regardless of hitting the bullseye right away. My bet is long pure EV.
Think back 20 years ago. No Internet (hey I had email in '89, so no semantics on web vs Internet please), mobile computing basically non existent (I also had the early compaq "portable" computer to use in 88/89), no widespread use of advanced materials, almost zero recombinant protein therapeutics, no patient level DNA diagnostics... Get the picture?
this is as much of a bet on management teams around a major disruption as anything else.
Who do you think will win? Who is thinking ahead? Who understands this the best? Who can move past their own sacred cows? Who is subject to internal inertia?
Who gets the best talent? Where does that talent have the biggest impact? If you were/ are a hotshot battery or automotive engineer that REALLY believed in EV where would you want to work.?
ModelS8794
Member
exactly.
i think hotel charging is nearly as important as supercharger rollout. But intra-day charging at destinations, not so much.
This +1000!
Very few people understand that Tesla is ahead of the game now and with JB and Elon at the helm they will still be ahead of the game 10 years from now because TM is attracting the best talent in the technology and car business.
Norse
Active Member
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
I got the email and thought "yeah yeah yeah, safe car, old news," but then I read it and my jaw kept dropping the more I read! A lot more factoids to bludgeon the unbelievers with!!!
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Hotels aren't useful for day trips. Superchargers close to cities might work - but we would want chargers in the city eventually. Competition will have that.
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