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Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Robert.Boston, Feb 24, 2013.

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  1. wdolson

    wdolson Supporting Member

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    I shopped Ford, Buick, and Subaru. I looked at a few others, but quickly crossed them off my list.

    For most EVs there are two customers. The bulk are eco buyers trying to buy a vehicle with the least environmental impact and the rest buy to get some kind of incentive (either by rebate or something like HOV lane access). Tesla is different. It draws in the eco buyers, but it also draws in people who are looking at ICE too.

    I started out looking for an ICE. I work from home and don't drive everyday, but my father in California is getting up there and the company I consult for is also in California so I needed a road trip car. In 2014 we went down to California in my SO's Subaru Impreza which is OK for around town, but it doesn't have enough leg room for long road trips and I was in agony by the time we got back.

    I have long legs and broke my tail bone as a kid. If my legs aren't in a comfortable position on a long drive, my legs start to hurt. So I'm pushed into larger cars or some kind of truck-like vehicle from the get go. I was driving a 24 year old Buick and all I wanted was the same acceleration (7s 0-60), 80% the cargo capacity and 20% better gas mileage in a car big enough for my legs.

    After searching for 6 months, I was surprised to find no ICE or hybrid that would fit that bill. One night I looked at the Model S on a lark and found it not only met all my criteria, it blew all of them away. When I sat in one, I found the seat actually went back further than I needed (very rare). It was substantially more than my target price range ($30K-$40K), but it was so vastly more than anything else out there, I started saving. If the Model 3 had been available, I probably would have gone for it, but this was before the Model 3 reveal.

    My path is a little unusual, but I have come across many people who would never want any other EV than a Tesla. Not long after I found Tesla I had to take a cab ride and the driver had once owned a body shop and was into cars. He ranted about what junk EVs were, but when I mentioned Tesla made a good car he spent the remainder of the drive praising the Model S and said he wanted one (this was before the Model X was in production).

    Bolt, Leaf, i3, etc. buyers usually set out to find an EV and they cross shop all the EVs out there. There are some Tesla buyers who are also cross shopping EVs, but many cross shop cars in the same utility and size bracket regardless of their propulsion source.

    There is an eco car ghetto populated with most EVs and many of the PHEVs. With most you have to give up something significant to get the EV power train (in some cases your dignity). But that isn't the case with Tesla's cars. They compete favorably with ICE and people will cross shop them with ICE cars like I did. Tesla is the only EV outside the EV ghetto.
     
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  2. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  3. wdolson

    wdolson Supporting Member

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    I noted the Model 3 accounted for more than 50% of all plug in car sales in the US last month.
     
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  4. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    And Model 3 accounted for 1.5% of all vehicles sold in the US (cars, SUVs, and light trucks) last month.
     
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  5. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    So, apparently the negative propagandists and short-sellers have managed to drive Elon Musk to madness. Hopefully he will take medical leave immediately.

    It's anyone's guess what the stock will do in the near term. The company doesn't require Musk's personal micromanagement at this point; everything is well in hand, with Jerome Guillen as President of Automotive, delivery issues being resolved, cell production ramping up, and the 4th-best-selling car in the United States. The long term has never been brighter for the company -- Musk's personal long-term future, however, is another matter.
     
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  6. Driver Dave

    Driver Dave Member

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    Elon likes to joke around. Everyone knows that. Relax. It is a good funny joke.

    In the end, the model 3 is a historically great car, it will be wildly successful, easily profitable.

    The fact that Elon poked fun at the SEC (who deserved it in my book) will just be something to laugh about later.

    As in "Remember when people sold their stake in Tesla because of a joke from Elon on twitter?!?"

    Regardless of twitter jokes, Model 3 is going to print money, TSLA long is obvious.
     
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  7. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    Yes. I still think Musk may be resigning or taking a vacation from the CEO job, and he badly needs the break. Unlike some people, I think the company would do fine with Jerome as CEO.
     
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  8. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    I think you're misconstruing what he's doing. His latest series of tweets seem to exude confidence to me, not insanity. Elon always liked to buck the system where he can, a little dig here and there seems quite inline with his normal behavior.
     
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  9. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    Maybe. I know firsthand what years of unremitting stress can do to a person's judgment and temper.

    Musk didn't really have an option for a while, but he has an option now, with SpaceX operating smoothly, with Tesla making enough cars to be profitable, and with Jerome Guillen running Automotive at Tesla. Musk needs to take a break and recover his equilibrium. I actually really want him to. He's already identified that this is going to be the worst time for him personally; he needs to find a way to protect his health.
     
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  10. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    I wonder if taking time away would even be helpful for someone like Elon. The constant thoughts of ways to improve and fix things won't go away. I certainly do hope he can at least get some good nightly rest on a regular basis, that might be vacation enough for him.
     
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  11. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    I suspect Musk's idea of a vacation is designing biospheres for Mars, which would be fine.
     
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  12. aubreymcfato

    aubreymcfato Member

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    Musk is a human like everyone, albeit with a quirky mentality/chemistry/whatever.
    He can't stop his mind spinning, but he longs for emotional relationships like everyone else.
    Without a female companion, he gets very lonely: he's said this multiple times, he's even cried during interviewes.
    Like all humans, he needs others to refuel, to get a sense of purpose.

    I'd hope he take a few days with his 5 sons, who need him like he needs them; he has a loving family, he should leran to tap that affection more often. I want him at the helm of Tesla, but he needs to mature more emotionally, to be able to ask for help. He could just take a few weeks with friends and family, work a little on "small" things (Neuralink, Boring comany), reaad some books, and above all avoid social media.
     
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  13. dc_h

    dc_h Active Member

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    Agreed. I think without a crisis he gets a little bored. He should read up on the latest climate study, maybe go to Flint and spend a month coming up with a holistic solution for the water situation and build a foundation to attack lead poisoning nationally. Maybe the foundation can fund lawsuits against big oil to pay to clean it up and send a little fud their way.
    Anyhow, he needs to redefine himself a bit, coming out of two years of bet the company he seems to have some problem letting go of crisis mode. I think Tesla has built up a mgmt team and Corp structure the last 6 months that should allow him to focus on long term and some occasional special forces role to attack ongoing engineering problems.
     
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  14. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    Do you mean in addition to this?
    flint.PNG
     
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  15. dc_h

    dc_h Active Member

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    Yes. It’s a long term issue affecting a lot of older industrial areas. The govt hasn’t kept focus on the issue. Lead poisoning can cause a significant loss in IQ and increases in anger and aggression. I don’t know what percentage of the population is affected, but if this was an influenza, there’d be an outcry, instead it becomes normalized.
     
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  16. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    Damn near all of the population is affected, just to different degrees. It affects early childhood development, so the exposure when you're age 0-2 is critical.

    The biggest effects are on people who were young children when *leaded gas* was still legal and used. It was the biggest source of lead exposure. It was phased out, but the first and biggest drop happened in 1974. As you get younger birth years than that, you get calmer, smarter people. The peak in the US was in the early 1950s.

    There was more driving in big cities than in the countryside, so more lead exposure.

    Location also matters: proximity to lead smelters or gasoline refineries is worse. Donald Trump, for instance, was in a high-exposure location: a city with a lot of cars, during the rise of lead usage after WWII, near major refineries (in New Jersey, and back then, Queens too).

    The lead from leaded gasoline is still all through the soil, and affecting everyone. Of course, lead paint and lead pipes cause exposure too; just nowhere near as extreme as the quantities from leaded gasoline.

    The work of Rick Nevin covers a lot of this, and Kevin Drum has written several articles about it (including citing studies by other researchers -- it's not just Nevin).

    By the way, this is why Venezuela is collapsing right now. They didn't get rid of leaded gasoline until *2005*, and they used WAY more lead in their gasoline than the US ever did. They have enormous numbers of stupid, angry people due to lead poisoning. Leaded gasoline started in the 1920s, and practically nobody from before that period is alive today. So basically only people under the age of 13, or growing up in extremely remote jungle areas, avoided the brain damage in Venezuela. It won't get better until the current 13-year-olds are adults, and in fact until they dominate the 18-30 age bracket, so it'll be at least 5 and maybe 20 more years before things really get better...
     
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  17. adesai

    adesai Member

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    This quote by Elon Musk I keep coming back to over and over again the past 5 years:

    "In terms of the Internet, it’s like humanity acquiring a collective nervous system. Whereas previously we were more like a collection of cells that communicated by diffusion. With the advent of the Internet, it was suddenly like we got a nervous system."

    I'd say that a lot of these issues were happening consistently throughout human civilization. We're just finding out and surfacing the issues now. Frankly, think Twitter and all sorts of apps via the Internet are wonderful instruments to experiment with understanding the ramifications of this much knowledge about ourselves and the environment around us consistently. Glad to be a part of it this time in human history even though it's tumultuous...and really freaking weird to experience.
     
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  18. Mader Levap

    Mader Levap Member

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    I view it as severe oversimplification. Somehow I doubt leaded gasoline caused economic collapse in Venezuela. Lead poisioning could exarcebate reaction of people to that situation, though.
     
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  19. aubreymcfato

    aubreymcfato Member

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  20. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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