FWIW Elon has started using "1 million households" instead of "top 1%", and "10 million households" instead of "top 10%".
Interesting.
The Model S is an aspirational vehicle, meaning people are trying to afford one, so it's a > 1% vehicle at a 1% price.
Any calculation has to include global markets. Tesla doesn't have to get 20k US model S sales.
If the batteries prove themselves it will open up the limo/high-end taxi market further.
Physical improvements will allow Tesla to get some repeat sales.
Tesla has the Model X coming, which shares significant components with the Model S.
Tesla is aiming to be a grid storage and back-up business and that can add a revenue stream and allow them easily to sell battery upgrades.
They have sales of the drivetrain to Toyota and MB to bring in extra income
They earn more on ZEV credits for their first sales.
They are earning CA carbon credits.
They are likely to improve production and lower unit manufacturing costs.
A large part of the cost is the battery and the cell costs should continue to fall.
I think Tesla has plenty of ways in which they can live with delays of Gen 3, even if US model S sales fall off to 800-1000 per month.