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Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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- elon is an ass investing TSLA
NigelM
Recovering Member
Mod Notes:
Some posts went here - Presidential-power-(or-the-lack-of-it)-over-energy-policy
The whole devils advocate position went here - Devils-advocating
(Feel free to ignore that second one if you wish, I just want to avoid it escalating into a discussion on whether someone is just short or is trolling.)
Let's get this thread back on track. It's an investor discussion and the subject is "Long Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors". :smile:
- - - Updated - - -
We do our best, but that's largely up to the members. :wink: Anyway, I've cleaned up so we can get back OT now.
Some posts went here - Presidential-power-(or-the-lack-of-it)-over-energy-policy
The whole devils advocate position went here - Devils-advocating
(Feel free to ignore that second one if you wish, I just want to avoid it escalating into a discussion on whether someone is just short or is trolling.)
Let's get this thread back on track. It's an investor discussion and the subject is "Long Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors". :smile:
- - - Updated - - -
We do our best, but that's largely up to the members. :wink: Anyway, I've cleaned up so we can get back OT now.
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Norse
Active Member
kevin99
Member
Who wants to be the 100,000th person to sign the petition?
View attachment 24918
Only 1,000 left to go. Will be hit by end of the day.
BTW, anyone has the complete list of petitions ever reach 100,000? I want to compare this for historical significance!!
View attachment 24918
Only 1,000 left to go. Will be hit by end of the day.
BTW, anyone has the complete list of petitions ever reach 100,000? I want to compare this for historical significance!!
Norse
Active Member
Words of HABIT
Active Member
I Believe!
What has changed for TM since my first post of February 3rd, 2013 (below captioned)? Only for the better. TM share price of $50, $100 or $150 is irrelevant at this stage. I believe EVs are better vehicles than ICE and we are at the cusp of this transformation. I believe TM will be a big player in the EV market. I also believe it will take many years. Be patient. Invest wisely by spreading your risk. Do your own detailed research from wide variety of sources. Don't invest what you can't afford to lose. Enjoy Life. Sleep well.
"TM is still in its infancy and prone to dramatic swings in share price over the most trivial of affairs.
What we know:
Fact: Battery cost will reduce, its size decrease and performance improved year over year (y-o-y), on a much greater scale than advancements over ICE.
Fact: Economies of scale will decrease TM manufacturing price y-o-y.
Fact: Supercharge stations and other electric source fill up stations will increase y-o-y
Fact: Most of my friends have never heard of Tesla or TM (I am a professional Project Manager). With greater recognition comes greater opportunity. No Dave, it's not a fish.
Fact: Expanding global reach will increase y.o.y.
Prediction: The price of Oil will continue to rise.
Prediction: Model X will outsell the Model S, by replacing all the SUV ICE >$100 fill ups at the pump. Some would rather spend that money on a nice meal with the family (not everyone enjoys eating in their car).
Prediction: TM will be profitable in 2013 with 20k production.
Prediction: Model X in 2014, Gen.III in 2016
The rest is noise.
Sit back, turn off Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance and enjoy life and those around you. The Tesla training wheels have just come off. This is a long term hold for 2016 horizon. Tesla is the future, and the future is coming whether we like it or not. I Believe!"
What has changed for TM since my first post of February 3rd, 2013 (below captioned)? Only for the better. TM share price of $50, $100 or $150 is irrelevant at this stage. I believe EVs are better vehicles than ICE and we are at the cusp of this transformation. I believe TM will be a big player in the EV market. I also believe it will take many years. Be patient. Invest wisely by spreading your risk. Do your own detailed research from wide variety of sources. Don't invest what you can't afford to lose. Enjoy Life. Sleep well.
"TM is still in its infancy and prone to dramatic swings in share price over the most trivial of affairs.
What we know:
Fact: Battery cost will reduce, its size decrease and performance improved year over year (y-o-y), on a much greater scale than advancements over ICE.
Fact: Economies of scale will decrease TM manufacturing price y-o-y.
Fact: Supercharge stations and other electric source fill up stations will increase y-o-y
Fact: Most of my friends have never heard of Tesla or TM (I am a professional Project Manager). With greater recognition comes greater opportunity. No Dave, it's not a fish.
Fact: Expanding global reach will increase y.o.y.
Prediction: The price of Oil will continue to rise.
Prediction: Model X will outsell the Model S, by replacing all the SUV ICE >$100 fill ups at the pump. Some would rather spend that money on a nice meal with the family (not everyone enjoys eating in their car).
Prediction: TM will be profitable in 2013 with 20k production.
Prediction: Model X in 2014, Gen.III in 2016
The rest is noise.
Sit back, turn off Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance and enjoy life and those around you. The Tesla training wheels have just come off. This is a long term hold for 2016 horizon. Tesla is the future, and the future is coming whether we like it or not. I Believe!"
kevin99
Member
With so much enthusiasm from overwhelmingly positive sentiment in the forum, I am starting to concern how to grasp the longer term of TSLA price.
The run-up of July is a surprise to me. Before entering July, I was under the impression of Q2 is so-so, so let's hope the TSLA does not have a major pull back.
Instead it is another 30%(or more?) run-up for July.
Back in June, I felt I am in sync with the price movement. I deeply believed the $92.8 price of secondary offering is a solid resistance point, a bottom price I can base on to trade. When TSLA got close to $90-$95 range, I did not hesitate a bit to pull off some trades and won big.
Now I have to admit I am a bit lost. Though I am pleasantly surprised by the strength of TSLA, I couldn't fathom quite clearly what drives the rise. Obviously TSLA has been enjoying remarkable favorable daily press and media exposure, which to a large extent drives the stock. However all of that can be fickle and the sentiment could reverse. I am looking for the next line of resistance/bottom price, a solid price that back up by hard evidence. E.g, the $92.8 price is backed by hard evidence: the big money thinks $92.8 is a good price and jump in.
I don't have any justification to name one. Some may say two digits vs three digits is a psychological barrier but I don't want to risk money with this kind of pseudo argument. So what is your bottom price and justification?
Obviously there are many investors just buy-and-forget, and that is all good.
This is for those who care about hedging, i.e. if you buy puts, at what strike you would buy? and those who are interested in capturing major pull back: when you will put the trigger adding more?
The run-up of July is a surprise to me. Before entering July, I was under the impression of Q2 is so-so, so let's hope the TSLA does not have a major pull back.
Instead it is another 30%(or more?) run-up for July.
Back in June, I felt I am in sync with the price movement. I deeply believed the $92.8 price of secondary offering is a solid resistance point, a bottom price I can base on to trade. When TSLA got close to $90-$95 range, I did not hesitate a bit to pull off some trades and won big.
Now I have to admit I am a bit lost. Though I am pleasantly surprised by the strength of TSLA, I couldn't fathom quite clearly what drives the rise. Obviously TSLA has been enjoying remarkable favorable daily press and media exposure, which to a large extent drives the stock. However all of that can be fickle and the sentiment could reverse. I am looking for the next line of resistance/bottom price, a solid price that back up by hard evidence. E.g, the $92.8 price is backed by hard evidence: the big money thinks $92.8 is a good price and jump in.
I don't have any justification to name one. Some may say two digits vs three digits is a psychological barrier but I don't want to risk money with this kind of pseudo argument. So what is your bottom price and justification?
Obviously there are many investors just buy-and-forget, and that is all good.
This is for those who care about hedging, i.e. if you buy puts, at what strike you would buy? and those who are interested in capturing major pull back: when you will put the trigger adding more?
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Most analysts still publicly think Tesla is and will always be a niche player. However, most analysts have indirectly hinted that if Tesla can sell 500,000 - 1 million vehicles annually in the future, and effectively manage costs, the stock is worth $500-$1500.
I don't think there is too much enthusiasm priced into the stock. I do agree the stock could correct sharply like it did when Goldman Sachs urged caution, due to a pause in momentum, however I think it will rebound very quickly due to buyers who see the perma bull case. The stock is trading based on enthusiasm, and the high probability that Tesla will report a massive earnings beat, however, and the momentum can be paused by any negative reports from credible sources. I expect a steep correction to happen eventually, since nothing can go up every day without profit taking eventually kicking in, especially when some people are up 400% - 1000%.
I don't think there is too much enthusiasm priced into the stock. I do agree the stock could correct sharply like it did when Goldman Sachs urged caution, due to a pause in momentum, however I think it will rebound very quickly due to buyers who see the perma bull case. The stock is trading based on enthusiasm, and the high probability that Tesla will report a massive earnings beat, however, and the momentum can be paused by any negative reports from credible sources. I expect a steep correction to happen eventually, since nothing can go up every day without profit taking eventually kicking in, especially when some people are up 400% - 1000%.
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Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
As far as long term goes...buy and hold! It does not matter what the current price is. It will be much more in a few years. I don't think that is your question, though.
kevin99
Member
I kind of agree the sky is limit for TSLA. It is still early in the historical run.
However when the stock runs up so fast and furious, one has to ponder how far it will fall, if any. So the question what do you think the bottom price would be for TSLA. We know it did dip below $110 briefly, would that be it?
However when the stock runs up so fast and furious, one has to ponder how far it will fall, if any. So the question what do you think the bottom price would be for TSLA. We know it did dip below $110 briefly, would that be it?
deonb
Active Member
Acmykguy
Member
Ok let me throw this into the mix. If you did see there were some price increases and unbundling of options from the standard configurations. Why would they raise prices so much?
A). Because demand is so great they can get the prices that they are now currently which will increase margins.
B) or because the demand isn't there and therefor they need to generate more revenue per car to increase profit.
Either way, how would each one of these effect or "telegraph" about 2Q results?
A). Because demand is so great they can get the prices that they are now currently which will increase margins.
B) or because the demand isn't there and therefor they need to generate more revenue per car to increase profit.
Either way, how would each one of these effect or "telegraph" about 2Q results?
Effect of price increases.
There are other threads that talk about the fact that Tesla has introduced a bunch of new/old/unbundled options. The bottom line is that a Model S configured like our Sig P85 is now something like $10k more expensive (I haven't bothered to actually add it up). Someone said a fully-optioned car is $132k. Anyway, that's just background for what I wanted to discuss.
I think this is enormously good for Tesla the company. Clearly the Model S is worth more than people were paying for it, otherwise this move would be suicide. "The value of a thing is what that thing will bring." So it will improve the gross margin on the average sale. That will be reflected in the profit, and so on.
The potential downside is of course reduced sales. But I'm not worried about that. They're about to open two new huge markets, in Europe and China, and at the moment they seem to be constrained by production, not demand. Also the "viral effect" of seeing Model Ss pop up everywhere is, I think, increasing demand in their existing market (North America). What demand there is doesn't seem very price-sensitive; less than 3% of customers went for the 40kWh Model S.
But why not just, or also, increase production? Well, at TESLIVE Elon mentioned battery supply issues. Maybe they literally can't increase production to the level of, say, running a full second shift. There's no point building electric cars without batteries. Maximizing profit on the ones they can build makes a lot of sense. Anyway, it leaves more room for Gen III based platforms to be optioned up too.
Long term, then, I think the effective price increase is great for the business. Go Tesla!
Oh, and it increases the resale price of ours, too! Not that there's a snowball's chance of us selling it in any near future.
There are other threads that talk about the fact that Tesla has introduced a bunch of new/old/unbundled options. The bottom line is that a Model S configured like our Sig P85 is now something like $10k more expensive (I haven't bothered to actually add it up). Someone said a fully-optioned car is $132k. Anyway, that's just background for what I wanted to discuss.
I think this is enormously good for Tesla the company. Clearly the Model S is worth more than people were paying for it, otherwise this move would be suicide. "The value of a thing is what that thing will bring." So it will improve the gross margin on the average sale. That will be reflected in the profit, and so on.
The potential downside is of course reduced sales. But I'm not worried about that. They're about to open two new huge markets, in Europe and China, and at the moment they seem to be constrained by production, not demand. Also the "viral effect" of seeing Model Ss pop up everywhere is, I think, increasing demand in their existing market (North America). What demand there is doesn't seem very price-sensitive; less than 3% of customers went for the 40kWh Model S.
But why not just, or also, increase production? Well, at TESLIVE Elon mentioned battery supply issues. Maybe they literally can't increase production to the level of, say, running a full second shift. There's no point building electric cars without batteries. Maximizing profit on the ones they can build makes a lot of sense. Anyway, it leaves more room for Gen III based platforms to be optioned up too.
Long term, then, I think the effective price increase is great for the business. Go Tesla!
Oh, and it increases the resale price of ours, too! Not that there's a snowball's chance of us selling it in any near future.
kevin99
Member
I am just a bit confused why discussion of config price increase come to this thread? I do remember seeing them somewhere, perhaps in the short-term thread?
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
Acmykguy
Member
Hi Kevin, I brought this up because it directly effects the long term profit, sales, and demand of the car(s). The economics of raising or lowering the sale price of them effects many aspects of the balance sheet as well as the income statement. Not trying to ruffle feathers.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
It's clearly "A" (IMO) since Tesla clearly is production constrained. Per other comments, this is a good thing and its part of their master plan for getting to 25% GM without the ZEV credits.
In interms of TSLAs Long Term price potential, one thing that has giving me a lot of confidence is the CEO stock compensation plan.
The last of ten milestones is producing 300k cars and at that level the market cap of TSLA based on the plan is $43B. Currently, the market cap is $16B. So, basically the stock will need to triple for Elon to realize the tenth milestone.
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