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Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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- elon is an ass investing TSLA
As long as Musk talks about the GF, has good excuses for Model X, and shows nice photographs of the Model 3, the stock will go back up to $280.
Correct. Yay.
... and with good reason, since there is a track record of follow-through.
Just invested in more TSLA. At today's price it's a bargain. I started buying a few years ago, though long after it broke $100. I plan on holding on to it for many years. I think short term investing is almost always a poor strategy.
Ever heard of massive sarcasm?
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Tesla is crashing back to earth like every massively unprofitable, underperforming bubble stock.
Was this an example of that?
Oh. I guess not then.
Sarcasm works best, it seems to me, when delivered with some hint that way. And a dash of humour won't go amiss either. I haven't followed your persona closely enough to catch such a drift on a mere few words.
You may take that as constructive critisism if you like. :wink:
I actually believe this will happen within the next 6 months. But if not, that's fine as well. I have to say that the timing of your short position has been very good. Hope you don't wait too long to cash in. Maybe take some off the table along the way?
Eventually Tesla will get the Model X ramp going, and they have plenty of orders, so its simply a matter of getting the cars produced.
They are still producing and selling a lot of cars. Worst case scenario they either have to hold back a little on the timing of their growth, or do another investment round. Neither is the end of the world.
I would love to buy in around $100 to lower my cost basis. Maybe that is not impossible after all? I doubt it will happen, but its not out of the realm of possibility.
I'm sorry, but that made me laugh out loud. No one can answer that question, only predictions based on a future yet to occur. This thread along with the blind faith price targets thread is a good place to start. A lot of long-term scenarios are discussed in the short-term thread as well.
Blind Faith Price Targets
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016
You can also search for the 2015 short-term thread. I would recommend reading the quarterly shareholder letters and listening to the quarterly conference calls, as well as watching some of Elon Musk's and JB Straubel's videos on youtube. Long-term, Tesla has the potential to be the world's most valuable company or go bankrupt.
Welcome.
Haha, you may be right. In any case, it was worth delaying the cleaning that I would have otherwise spent that time (and this time) on.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Gotta love some of the post over at the short term thread. Once short term traders make the wrong bet they start to blame everyone up to the CEO; of course they blame everyone but themselves. It's a hard learned lesson when trades don't go your way, but I've said it before-short term are for gamblers. Sentiments change quickly and in a matter of minutes a positive or negative note can blossom out of thin air. It's in your judgement to either weather the storm, cut your loses or join he bears and Fudsters.. Plan accordingly folks. The story of this company hasn't changed. I've been wrong on many occasions, but guess what? I can afford to be wrong as I have a long term plan.
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Actually it's priceless. And depending upon your assumptions that can mean either of two extremes and anything in between.
Regarding the long term outlook for Tesla:
Here in Norway, diesel cars were just banned from county roads in Oslo on particularly polluted days. Diesel cars comprise approximately 45% of the cars in Oslo or 127k cars. Plus you have a lot of commuters. We're probably only talking about less than 5 days a year, but still, I think this will really affect diesel sales, for the benefit of gasoline and electric cars. People generally want cars they can drive whenever they want.
Here in Norway, diesel cars were just banned from county roads in Oslo on particularly polluted days. Diesel cars comprise approximately 45% of the cars in Oslo or 127k cars. Plus you have a lot of commuters. We're probably only talking about less than 5 days a year, but still, I think this will really affect diesel sales, for the benefit of gasoline and electric cars. People generally want cars they can drive whenever they want.
I've said this before, but regarding the long-term outlook for Tesla:
The strong points:
-- The cars are great and will keep selling very well
-- Electric cars are just better than gasmobiles and will take over the world
-- I am not worried about technological 'teething issues'; even replacing 20,000 drivetrains will not cost that much really
-- Tesla has built up a fearsomely valuable brand and will keep leading in electric cars if they don't trash the brand
-- Tesla is way ahead of everyone else on several key design points
-- Tesla is way ahead of everyone else on the supply chain for electric cars
The weak point is the "soft side" of the company: communications and service
-- External communications are bad: unreliable and unhelpful
-- Internal communications are terrible; left hand doesn't know what right hand is doing; probably creates external communications problems
-- Legal department doesn't seem to do its research
-- Software department seems to be a black hole which never says anything to the service centers
-- Service has lots of individual good people but corporate policies are all over the place
-- Bait-and-switch on ranger service
-- Insufficient geographic coverage of service centers, creating entire regions of the country where people will either not buy the cars or be angry about lack of service
Elon's an engineer. He needs to hire someone with a complementary and completely different skill set (communications major or humanities major) as Chief Communications Officer, focusing first on internal communications, but also with the power to veto sudden external policy changes or press releases which have a likelihood of damaging Tesla's reputation. At the risk of sex-stereotyping, probably a woman. If he doesn't figure out how important this is, it could be very bad for the company.
This is not investment advice. Take of it what you will.
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It's worth the future earnings, computed for each year, added up, (possibly plus the long-term steady value of capital) and discounted to the present day by the effective interest rate of your default alternative investment of choice. It's up to you to figure out what those future numbers are!
The strong points:
-- The cars are great and will keep selling very well
-- Electric cars are just better than gasmobiles and will take over the world
-- I am not worried about technological 'teething issues'; even replacing 20,000 drivetrains will not cost that much really
-- Tesla has built up a fearsomely valuable brand and will keep leading in electric cars if they don't trash the brand
-- Tesla is way ahead of everyone else on several key design points
-- Tesla is way ahead of everyone else on the supply chain for electric cars
The weak point is the "soft side" of the company: communications and service
-- External communications are bad: unreliable and unhelpful
-- Internal communications are terrible; left hand doesn't know what right hand is doing; probably creates external communications problems
-- Legal department doesn't seem to do its research
-- Software department seems to be a black hole which never says anything to the service centers
-- Service has lots of individual good people but corporate policies are all over the place
-- Bait-and-switch on ranger service
-- Insufficient geographic coverage of service centers, creating entire regions of the country where people will either not buy the cars or be angry about lack of service
Elon's an engineer. He needs to hire someone with a complementary and completely different skill set (communications major or humanities major) as Chief Communications Officer, focusing first on internal communications, but also with the power to veto sudden external policy changes or press releases which have a likelihood of damaging Tesla's reputation. At the risk of sex-stereotyping, probably a woman. If he doesn't figure out how important this is, it could be very bad for the company.
This is not investment advice. Take of it what you will.
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It's worth the future earnings, computed for each year, added up, (possibly plus the long-term steady value of capital) and discounted to the present day by the effective interest rate of your default alternative investment of choice. It's up to you to figure out what those future numbers are!
GAAP vs Non-GAAP question:
I understand that Non-GAAP accounts for all revenue realized for that period, while GAAP financing is force to spread out the leased figures over a longer period of time. (Feel free to correct this understanding if I'm wrong, as I'm just learning this part of things.)
The question is, are the number of vehicles delivered per quarter representative of all vehicles (Non-GAAP style) or all non-leased deliveries only (GAAP style)?
Let me also mention the reason for my questions. I'm trying to track the figures (like many here) and there were about 11,580 vehicles delivered in Q3 of 2015... with a GAAP revenue of $937m and Non-GAAP revenue of $1,244m. In that report it also stated there were 494 vehicles leased. So, what is the accurate ASP (average sales price)?
Would it be:
$937m/11,580 = $80.9k
$937m/(11,580-494) = $84.5k
$1,244m/11,580 = $107.4k
$1,244m/(11,580+494) = $103k
Another reason I'm asking is because this could change the real number of vehicles produced (if the last option above).
Thank you.
I understand that Non-GAAP accounts for all revenue realized for that period, while GAAP financing is force to spread out the leased figures over a longer period of time. (Feel free to correct this understanding if I'm wrong, as I'm just learning this part of things.)
The question is, are the number of vehicles delivered per quarter representative of all vehicles (Non-GAAP style) or all non-leased deliveries only (GAAP style)?
Let me also mention the reason for my questions. I'm trying to track the figures (like many here) and there were about 11,580 vehicles delivered in Q3 of 2015... with a GAAP revenue of $937m and Non-GAAP revenue of $1,244m. In that report it also stated there were 494 vehicles leased. So, what is the accurate ASP (average sales price)?
Would it be:
$937m/11,580 = $80.9k
$937m/(11,580-494) = $84.5k
$1,244m/11,580 = $107.4k
$1,244m/(11,580+494) = $103k
Another reason I'm asking is because this could change the real number of vehicles produced (if the last option above).
Thank you.
I made a comment yesterday on a thread that I started in July last year, Long TSLA, but bearish next six months. The title of that thread is now outdated and there's not much traffic on the thread either so I'm moving the comment here. Per below, the key question for me in the next 6-12 months is the durability of Model S demand. Any feedback on thoughts below appreciated.
@uselesslogin -- Good timing! I was just considering updating this post. Because of valuation, my bias for the next six months and beyond is now positive (though I would not say that I'm loading up, but I'm interested in feedback from others on this thread per my questions below). Assuming the company was profitable so that stock option dilution would be calculated into the fully diluted count, I think Tesla has about 147-148 million shares out. At $176, that's a $26 billion cap. If the stock fell another 30% from here, it would be valued at $18 billion. I think $18 billion would be a very compelling value for Tesla right now. Even with a scary, unanticipated hiccup on S sales, the company should get to $8-$10 billion revenue run rate in the next couple of years with lots of growth potential thereafter. Less than 2x sales for a company with very good prospects for profitable growth long term certainly seems like a compelling value. In short, there is still potentially downside from here near term, but I think that downside is in the 30% range (not 50%+ which is where I think we were six months ago).
Per @uselesslogin's comments above, I certainly did not get the reasons exactly right six months ago, but I don't think I was entirely off either. Together with a high valuation, my biggest concern was a temporary flattening or softening of model S sales in the shadow of the model X promotion and introduction (particularly given that even a successful X launched would result in low margins on those sales temporarily). This obviously did not happen as Model S sales were extremely robust in the second half of the year. At the same time, I don't think the concern was entirely unfounded as I think this is the reason that the company launched its very successful referral program in the fall -- it decided it needed to pull a demand lever and I think it's reasonable to guess that concern the X launch might negatively impact S sales had something to do with it.
From a fundamental standpoint, I think S sales growth in the next six months is still the key variable. The delay in the X ramp means that we are only somewhat farther along than where we were six months ago, just with a better valuation on the stock. Tesla needs continued robust S sales to support the profitability and cash flow of the company in the next six months. On demand outlook for Model S near term, I simply don't have a lot of conviction, but I'm curious as to the opinions of others on this forum. On the one hand, the response to the summer/fall referral program was pretty awesome (as was demand in Europe). On the other hand, the fact that Tesla came out with an enhanced financing deal recently seems like they are still pulling levers to ensure consistent demand and I'd rather see evidence of strong demand without the need to pull levers. We'll know more after the conference call next week for sure. But again, I'm curious as to what others think about the demand picture for the model S (next 6 months to a year).
@uselesslogin -- Good timing! I was just considering updating this post. Because of valuation, my bias for the next six months and beyond is now positive (though I would not say that I'm loading up, but I'm interested in feedback from others on this thread per my questions below). Assuming the company was profitable so that stock option dilution would be calculated into the fully diluted count, I think Tesla has about 147-148 million shares out. At $176, that's a $26 billion cap. If the stock fell another 30% from here, it would be valued at $18 billion. I think $18 billion would be a very compelling value for Tesla right now. Even with a scary, unanticipated hiccup on S sales, the company should get to $8-$10 billion revenue run rate in the next couple of years with lots of growth potential thereafter. Less than 2x sales for a company with very good prospects for profitable growth long term certainly seems like a compelling value. In short, there is still potentially downside from here near term, but I think that downside is in the 30% range (not 50%+ which is where I think we were six months ago).
Per @uselesslogin's comments above, I certainly did not get the reasons exactly right six months ago, but I don't think I was entirely off either. Together with a high valuation, my biggest concern was a temporary flattening or softening of model S sales in the shadow of the model X promotion and introduction (particularly given that even a successful X launched would result in low margins on those sales temporarily). This obviously did not happen as Model S sales were extremely robust in the second half of the year. At the same time, I don't think the concern was entirely unfounded as I think this is the reason that the company launched its very successful referral program in the fall -- it decided it needed to pull a demand lever and I think it's reasonable to guess that concern the X launch might negatively impact S sales had something to do with it.
From a fundamental standpoint, I think S sales growth in the next six months is still the key variable. The delay in the X ramp means that we are only somewhat farther along than where we were six months ago, just with a better valuation on the stock. Tesla needs continued robust S sales to support the profitability and cash flow of the company in the next six months. On demand outlook for Model S near term, I simply don't have a lot of conviction, but I'm curious as to the opinions of others on this forum. On the one hand, the response to the summer/fall referral program was pretty awesome (as was demand in Europe). On the other hand, the fact that Tesla came out with an enhanced financing deal recently seems like they are still pulling levers to ensure consistent demand and I'd rather see evidence of strong demand without the need to pull levers. We'll know more after the conference call next week for sure. But again, I'm curious as to what others think about the demand picture for the model S (next 6 months to a year).
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