Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

[Bonken]

More people realise the fact that if you drive a Taxi, then you should choose Tesla.

http://www.rogalandsavis.no/nyheter/article6934348.ece (norwegian)

The article states that they got 2 superchargers for 50 000 dollars a pop, could this really be accurate? as I saw ur earlier statement from that uneducated tesla spokesperson who said 1,4 million?
And if this is true would this be the first confirmed private supercharger?

Edit:
I see now that google translated kroner to dollars so thats probably a standard HPWC they installed...

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Could we not also say that there's never a good time to visit the gas station? I would imagine cab fleets would use supercharger-level charging if possible. Perhaps the cabbie's coffee/smoke break becomes more productive?

They try to avoid breaks. Tough to park in busy areas, for a start.

NYC also has expensive electricity, so they won't have the c/mi advantage they'd have in other cities. Average miles per 12 hour shift is 180 in NYC, so if they only save $1.80 per c/mi, the 45 minute loss of time could be costly. Costs still need to come way down, but it's definitely so ething Tesla should have its eye on. Right now, the Model S price and weight would mean it would likely be better to buy 2 Leafs instead.

 

[JRP3]

A taxi fleet could have a dedicated swap station. Can't beat a 90 second "fill up".

 

[farzyness]

In case it wasn't posted yet - Elon's meet & greet event in Germany

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/22897-11-21-Munich-Tesla-Event-with-Elon-Musk

It looks like Panasonic will be able to supply 1.2k runrate worth of batteries by 2015. This extrapolates to about 63k cars for 2015. Also means there'll be 100k Tesla's roaming around the globe by the middle of 2015. Thoughts on how this changes/solidifies anyone's opinions?

 

[Johann Koeber]

At the munich event yesterday was a model S owner operating it as a taxi. She asked for a limiter to the max speed (to conserve energy). Elon said we might get it with the december update.

 

[StapleGun]

A taxi fleet could have a dedicated swap station. Can't beat a 90 second "fill up".

Exactly. It's difficult to make swap station economics work for the general public right now, but for fleet cars it works out great. Here's some quick math...

ICE

cars	100
miles/day	300
mpg	30
gallons/yr	10.95 million
fuel cost/yr ($3.50/gal.)	$1.28 million

Tesla

cars	100
miles/day	300
mpKwh	2.95
Kwh/yr	3.71 million
fuel cost ($0.13/kwh)	$483,000

So a fleet of 100 cars could save about $800k/year or about $8k per car. The price of a swap station (~$150k) becomes insignificant at this scale and it just comes down to whether the extra price for a car (and an extra battery for each car) can be justified by the $8k/year savings. With the Model S this is reasonably close over an 6-10 year lifespan of the car. With Gen III it will be a no brainer. I fully expect to see Tesla selling (or giving away) private swap stations to customers who purchase large fleets of cars in the future. I would say around 2020 when Gen III production is rolling will be when this becomes an actual thing.

 

[Norse]

The article states that they got 2 superchargers for 50 000 dollars a pop, could this really be accurate? as I saw ur earlier statement from that uneducated tesla spokesperson who said 1,4 million?
And if this is true would this be the first confirmed private supercharger?

Edit:
I see now that google translated kroner to dollars so thats probably a standard HPWC they installed...

Journalist soesnt know the difference, its a "high-speed charger."

Im surprised that we have not heard an announcement of someone buying 100 Teslas and a battery-swapper. If I had the money I would do that.

"- there will be an executive back seat option available in the future. But that will be only 4 seats and not 5."

This is in IMO extremly good news! This will ensure crazy sales in China but also everywhere. Its tight for 3 grownups in the back seat so 4 seat option is great. If they are so small they could fit three in there they could sit in the back anyways. And also if they are seven, buy the X. I will be waiting for this car and I will pay the extra. Great news!!

 

[Lessmog]

Could we not also say that there's never a good time to visit the gas station? I would imagine cab fleets would use supercharger-level charging if possible. Perhaps the cabbie's coffee/smoke break becomes more productive?

OK, silly point: Perhaps the cabbie's smoke break (at the gas station) becomes less destructive?
;-)
Just go smokefree, all round.
/ Sorry

 

[Norse]

More articles in your favourite language guys! (Norwegian)

http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/K...i-den-vanlige-bilen-7346793.html#.UmcGbk1BuUl

Here is some of it in English: http://www.t-systems.es/sobretsystems/the-future-is-coming-sooner-than-you-think/460302

http://www.future-matters.com/Futur...Mediathek_3_files/1003 Best practice Lars.pdf

 

[BornToFly]

@Staplegun
I think your estimate of 30mpg for a taxi is way off. With all the idling, stop and go, and hard accelerations of most taxi drivers, I think they are lucky to get 15-20mpg. This makes the Tesla numbers even better.

 

[TSLAopt]

More articles in your favourite language guys! (Norwegian)

http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/K...i-den-vanlige-bilen-7346793.html#.UmcGbk1BuUl

Here is some of it in English: http://www.t-systems.es/sobretsystems/the-future-is-coming-sooner-than-you-think/460302

http://www.future-matters.com/Futur...Mediathek_3_files/1003 Best practice Lars.pdf

here's a great find on the tesla motors forum of a great German article that just came out translated...the take away I got is that this change to EVs will be like a popcorn effect...

Scientist expects breakthrough for EVs soon - demand for ICEs might collapse massively already by 2016 | Forums | Tesla Motors

 

[Mario Kadastik]

A bit winded, but nevertheless the rare mostly positive SA article on Tesla that actually focuses not just on the Model S production, but the other advantages of Teslas future. Forgot to post yesterday so decided to share today.

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): Tesla: At The Tipping Point, Keep Your Eyes On The Big Picture - Seeking Alpha

 

[Mario Kadastik]

A fairly interesting tidbit discussed here: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/22979-European-Car-of-the-Year-2014

It is true, getting this award would be at least on par with the 99/100 rating on consumer reports, the Motor Treds Car of the Year etc. This is something that for sure is discussed in every countries media in EU and will for sure bring brand and car awareness to the Model S. This will definitely help the demand in EU if it does come and I too am relatively certain that looking at the competition and getting some of the backstory it's a no-brainer. As it seems not everyone reads all threads I thought to point it out here in the long term fundamentals as the results will be announced in March 2014 with the finalists in December this year, which is more long term than short term driver of the fundamentals.

 

[Bonken]

A fairly interesting tidbit discussed here: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/22979-European-Car-of-the-Year-2014

It is true, getting this award would be at least on par with the 99/100 rating on consumer reports, the Motor Treds Car of the Year etc. This is something that for sure is discussed in every countries media in EU and will for sure bring brand and car awareness to the Model S. This will definitely help the demand in EU if it does come and I too am relatively certain that looking at the competition and getting some of the backstory it's a no-brainer. As it seems not everyone reads all threads I thought to point it out here in the long term fundamentals as the results will be announced in March 2014 with the finalists in December this year, which is more long term than short term driver of the fundamentals.

Thanks for sharing this here! It is hard to keep up with all the new threads being created and new topics being discussed so thanks for bringing us up to speed!

 

[GenIIIBuyer]

A fairly interesting tidbit discussed here: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/22979-European-Car-of-the-Year-2014

It is true, getting this award would be at least on par with the 99/100 rating on consumer reports, the Motor Treds Car of the Year etc. This is something that for sure is discussed in every countries media in EU and will for sure bring brand and car awareness to the Model S. This will definitely help the demand in EU if it does come and I too am relatively certain that looking at the competition and getting some of the backstory it's a no-brainer. As it seems not everyone reads all threads I thought to point it out here in the long term fundamentals as the results will be announced in March 2014 with the finalists in December this year, which is more long term than short term driver of the fundamentals.

Thanks for posting that to the Long-Term thread. Another catalyst to look forward to. I can add that a week or so ago I was checking out Tesla's stats on Google Trends, and Hungary was off the charts as the highest region search score at the time. Could be related to this blog there finally getting a Tesla grin. Oslo, Norway is throwing off the City/Region search rankings today. However, google Trends is definitely a great tool to track the spread of interest in the Model S around the globe.

This spring when I started tracking San Francisco and LA were highest search rank, now spreading...

Also, Tesla/Model S has been a "Breakout" search term for about 6 months running.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

UK event info: starting from next quarter UK will have supercharger rollout with most of country covered by end of 2014. Also UK to be first right hand drive country. Seems the whole EU is getting loads of Tesla love in 2014.

 

[DonPedro]

UK event info: starting from next quarter UK will have supercharger rollout with most of country covered by end of 2014. Also UK to be first right hand drive country. Seems the whole EU is getting loads of Tesla love in 2014.

Huh, what? Is there an event in the UK today? How are you getting info from it? What more new?

 

[Mario Kadastik]

London store opening with Elon. Check transportevolve twitter.

 

[DonPedro]

London store opening with Elon. Check transportevolve twitter.

Found it. Liveblog here: http://transportevolved.com/2013/10/24/tesla-uk-store-official-opening/

First mention of Gen4 car! ("even more affordable" - 20:46).

 

[surfside]

First mention of Gen4 car! ("even more affordable" - 20:46).

i think this is huge news as far as long term value goes. this means tesla isn't resigned to be the porsche of EVs; it is going to continue moving down market into more affordable cars. that means competing with the toyota corolla and other more affordable cars, which is a HUGE market.

very exciting stuff :scared:

surfside