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Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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- elon is an ass investing TSLA
StapleGun
Member
I really want to see the video of this event so I can read more into this statement. Is he claiming that they'll expand production beyond NUMMI before even starting to build Gen III? That would be huge!
Yeah, I was wondering how to interpret that statement as well.
I found this (horrible quality) video from the event, but it cuts out before he comes to the production question: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fsI2ToCGo-A
In that quote, something else stood out for me. When I took the factory tour during Teslive the phrase they were still using was "we're only using 1/10th of the factory". Now they're saying "1/4 of the factory". That's a pretty significant jump in space usage in NUMMI terms.
hmm, not sure what to make of the 1/4 usage statement... Could mean they are gearing up for 100k + production capability for 2014. Asking everyone in London, Germany, and China to Oder ASAP or wait 5 months could generate some serious demand for next year.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
EM said in an interview with a german news paper sales in germany for 2015 are expected to be about 10.000 per year (similar to 200 cars per week already mentioned before):
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-eyes-annual-sales-10-115007790.html
Given a total annual sales of about 3.000.000 cars in germany, this is still only a small fraction.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-eyes-annual-sales-10-115007790.html
Given a total annual sales of about 3.000.000 cars in germany, this is still only a small fraction.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
A newspaper article in german "Manager Magazin" with Mr. Guillen from Tesla has headline "Tesla intensely seeking for new employees":
Elektroauto-Pionier: Tesla sucht händeringend Leute in Europa - manager magazin online - Nachrichten - Unternehmen
I had a look at the Tesla web page and there is almost 1.000 open positions worldwide.
How fast does this company want to grow in the next quarters?!
Elektroauto-Pionier: Tesla sucht händeringend Leute in Europa - manager magazin online - Nachrichten - Unternehmen
I had a look at the Tesla web page and there is almost 1.000 open positions worldwide.
How fast does this company want to grow in the next quarters?!
I think that Tesla could sell 75,000 units (worldwide) of the Tesla Model S alone in 2016.
The last car to get a 99/100 from consumer reports was the 2007 Lexus LS, and according to Wikipedia, the Lexus LS sold 71,760 units worldwide in 2007. True, it was the same year as the model year, but the Model S requires mass adoption before it would be able to sell huge volumes of cars, so a likely prediction might be 2015-2016.
The last car to get a 99/100 from consumer reports was the 2007 Lexus LS, and according to Wikipedia, the Lexus LS sold 71,760 units worldwide in 2007. True, it was the same year as the model year, but the Model S requires mass adoption before it would be able to sell huge volumes of cars, so a likely prediction might be 2015-2016.
That factory used to make 10,000 cars per week when it was NUMMI, and significantly less automated than it currently is. I don't think they're using anywhere near 20% of it for actual production... maybe storage.
Hot off the press, surprisingly from Seeking Alpha!:
Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): Tesla's Path To A Conservative $500 Per Share - Seeking Alpha
Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): Tesla's Path To A Conservative $500 Per Share - Seeking Alpha
OK nice to see. However, If we have another red day today with TSLA then it is time to ask SA to start writing negative articles again. Seems the stock price moves in an inverse pattern to SA content.
hockeythug
Active Member
Is the author confusing the $35,000 price range gen3 with Tesla dropping the price on the Modle S?
Also, was a ETA given for right hand drive models of the S? I remember hearing something about it a couple months ago.
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The numbers he uses are very rough/ballpark all over the article. With the $55k he may have been trying to state an average price of per car sold (Gen 3, Model S, X average).. but not sure. $20k profit on $55k is 36%.. sounds high for an average. Sounds like AAPL, and perhaps someday Tesla could pull in those type of profits down the road.
RationalOptimist
Member
I think he was misled by a mistranscription of Elon's quote. He said compelling "car" not compelling "COGS". The author literally took a $20k gross margin, added it to $35k "COGS" to get a $55k car with 36% gross margin. Bizarre. We should discount this piece. On the other hand, today's battery announcement is fantastic.
Panasonic Announcement
PANASONIC AND TESLA REACH AGREEMENT TO EXPAND SUPPLY OF AUTOMOTIVE-GRADE BATTERY CELLS | Press Releases | Tesla Motors
"2 billion cells over the course of four years"
How many cars does this translate to? Thus, what growth rate can we expect?
Forbes, DB are putting it at 300K to 330K cars. But they are using current cell counts per car as it is. But aren't batteries supposed to get efficient every passing year?
Does this deserve a separate thread?
PANASONIC AND TESLA REACH AGREEMENT TO EXPAND SUPPLY OF AUTOMOTIVE-GRADE BATTERY CELLS | Press Releases | Tesla Motors
"2 billion cells over the course of four years"
How many cars does this translate to? Thus, what growth rate can we expect?
Forbes, DB are putting it at 300K to 330K cars. But they are using current cell counts per car as it is. But aren't batteries supposed to get efficient every passing year?
Does this deserve a separate thread?
Citizen-T
Active Member
See the cost per kWh thread. They are discussing this very aspect of it (number of cells).
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