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Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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- elon is an ass investing TSLA
A new article (dated March 4, 2014) on SA with an optimistic long-term view of how Tesla's business model could evolve in future years in addition to what Adam Jonas described in the Morgan Stanley report last week.
The two main ideas are 1) "Tesla Inside" (similar idea to "Intel Inside"), and 2) Supercharger network ecosystem and its profit potential.
Here is the article:
Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) news: Tesla: An Investment Based On Optionality And The Genius Of Elon Musk - Seeking Alpha
The two main ideas are 1) "Tesla Inside" (similar idea to "Intel Inside"), and 2) Supercharger network ecosystem and its profit potential.
Here is the article:
Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) news: Tesla: An Investment Based On Optionality And The Genius Of Elon Musk - Seeking Alpha
[FONT="]This is a excerpt from the last 10-K of Tesla (Link):[/FONT]
Stationary Energy Storage Applications
In 2013, we developed stationary energy storage products for use in homes, commercial sites and utilities. The applications for these battery systems include backup power, peak demand reduction, demand response and wholesale electric market services. We plan to ramp sales of these products in 2014.
I wasnt even aware of the fact that the energy storage products were already in production in 2013.
Stationary Energy Storage Applications
In 2013, we developed stationary energy storage products for use in homes, commercial sites and utilities. The applications for these battery systems include backup power, peak demand reduction, demand response and wholesale electric market services. We plan to ramp sales of these products in 2014.
I wasnt even aware of the fact that the energy storage products were already in production in 2013.
Probably referring to this:
http://www.solarcity.com/residential/energy-storage.aspx
I think it is a pilot program that is not offered to everybody.
I talked to SolarCity about that battery storage product. They are somewhat vague about its availability and price (note: I am located in the San Francisco area). They are crystal clear that they will only sell it as part of a PV system that they sell and install. They will not sell that storage product separately. I was very disappointed to learn that.
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(please don't shoot the messenger)
Is European demand in a bad state? Look at this guy's comments, he is making bold statements that European demand is bad:
Logical Thought's Comments on TSLA: Tesla Motors - Seeking Alpha
"Here, I'll help you out on that one: the sales are reported every month (despite Tesla's best efforts to hide them): http://bit.ly/1gjm3qj
You can define "demand" however you want, but the only definition that counts is how many are sold, and that number is now unquestionably DECLINING in Europe now that the car has had eight or so months of availability, and it clearly isn't that Europe can't be supplied because some people in the U.S. are apparently now getting delivery dates within THREE WEEKS of confirming their orders: http://bit.ly/1n9VNrA "
"You're kidding, right? Have you seen Germany, France, Italy, Spain Holland, Sweden and Belgium? Among all of them combined, Tesla sold fewer than 150 cars last month."
Is this all true? There are many European members here. Maybe they can confirm or invalidate these statements..
Is European demand in a bad state? Look at this guy's comments, he is making bold statements that European demand is bad:
Logical Thought's Comments on TSLA: Tesla Motors - Seeking Alpha
"Here, I'll help you out on that one: the sales are reported every month (despite Tesla's best efforts to hide them): http://bit.ly/1gjm3qj
You can define "demand" however you want, but the only definition that counts is how many are sold, and that number is now unquestionably DECLINING in Europe now that the car has had eight or so months of availability, and it clearly isn't that Europe can't be supplied because some people in the U.S. are apparently now getting delivery dates within THREE WEEKS of confirming their orders: http://bit.ly/1n9VNrA "
"You're kidding, right? Have you seen Germany, France, Italy, Spain Holland, Sweden and Belgium? Among all of them combined, Tesla sold fewer than 150 cars last month."
Is this all true? There are many European members here. Maybe they can confirm or invalidate these statements..
Norse
Active Member
Next time you quote 'Logical Thought' I will be shooting the messenger.
That guy is short TSLA and doing anything he can to find negatives where they don't exist.
Yes, I know he has been short Tesla since a while. Nevertheless I think it's important to see what the other side is saying and see if we can easily refute them. If so, all the more power to us (longs).
Norse's response makes it clear that there is no demand issue. Anyone know the status on European charging issues?
I believe that Europe ships in waves, so it'd be fairly easy to cherry pick a given month and say sales are increasing or decreasing.
Tesla keeps expanding shipments to new countries faster than they're able to ramp up production, so for a while it'll be fairly easy to point to almost any country that had shipments last quarter and say the sales there have gone down...because new countries that have no sales history are sucking up the production.
Tesla keeps expanding shipments to new countries faster than they're able to ramp up production, so for a while it'll be fairly easy to point to almost any country that had shipments last quarter and say the sales there have gone down...because new countries that have no sales history are sucking up the production.
Supply does not equal demand.
Tesla is production constrained; someone has to make a calculated decision as to which market each car is sent to: North America, Europe, or China. I do not think it's reasonable to suppose that Tesla is allocating shipments in exact proportion to current order flows.
Tesla is production constrained; someone has to make a calculated decision as to which market each car is sent to: North America, Europe, or China. I do not think it's reasonable to suppose that Tesla is allocating shipments in exact proportion to current order flows.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Though Elon did stress how important Germany was, you'd think more vehicles would be allocated there if the demand were high.
Could have been that they held off or delayed a lot of German deliveries until they got the charging issue fixed in Germany or until Elon was happy with the final tune-up they are giving German cars for the autobahn.
Elon had indicated he wanted to test the limits on demand for the S in 2014. I think part of the reason for delay in the Model X introduction is that there is surprising demand for the S that can not be met. As long as the battery packs are the limiting factor TM is supply constrained only.
I would like to believe that. Just to put some perspective, here is Elon's exact words in the Q4 conference call.
"Well, we -- I think there's probably work to do in a number of locations in Europe, mostly because we still have to sort out a number of charging issues. Because the -- even though the EU is sort of 1 market economically. It's certainly not one market from an electricity standpoint. So we're sorting through a number of charging issues over there. And I think that's what's slowing down our [indiscernible] temporarily, but we feel confident about addressing those in the very near term and expect that the sales will do -- will pick up quite a bit over in Europe." - From here
I don't see any threads discussing this. It would be nice to know the status.
The date of this video interview of Elon Musk from Germany was approx. Nov 1, 2013:
Tesla-Chef Elon Musk im Interview - Frontal 21 - ZDFmediathek - ZDF Mediathek
In the interview Elon Musk said he suspect Germany may have underlying Model S demand of 15,000 units per year. Elon explained that he is optimistic about demand from Germany because Germany has the second largest Roadster owners behind U.S.A.
IMO Tesla is still very much: 1) battery cell and production constrained, 2) channels are still being filled, cars in tranit, 3) Europe, China, etc are just getting started with Model S.
Actually, most drivers in the world, including USA drivers, still have never heard of Tesla.
Tesla-Chef Elon Musk im Interview - Frontal 21 - ZDFmediathek - ZDF Mediathek
In the interview Elon Musk said he suspect Germany may have underlying Model S demand of 15,000 units per year. Elon explained that he is optimistic about demand from Germany because Germany has the second largest Roadster owners behind U.S.A.
IMO Tesla is still very much: 1) battery cell and production constrained, 2) channels are still being filled, cars in tranit, 3) Europe, China, etc are just getting started with Model S.
Actually, most drivers in the world, including USA drivers, still have never heard of Tesla.
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wishing_for_S
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New Chevy Volt
Gas 2 | Bridging the gap between green heads and gear heads.
I have a hard time believing Chevy could pull off a 200 mi range in 2016. What do you think?
Gas 2 | Bridging the gap between green heads and gear heads.
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