Thumper
Active Member
There are loyalty point aggregators like Points.com that could become the front end for charging fees like JHM proposed. When you had consumed one vendors points, you would be moved on to the next point reservoir.
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Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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- elon is an ass investing TSLA
SW2Fiddler
We Are Cognitive Dissidents
I like it, and would add credits from CoinStar (and other) change-counting machines to the mix. Those already lean to giving out vendor "gift card" credit preferentially.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Lest it get lost, I defined and calculated the time of peak ICE in a couple of posts starting here:
Articles/Megaposts by FluxCap - Page 4
In short the ICE apocalypse will likely happen in 2022 - 2024. This will coincide with the time EV reach 5% share of the new car market. The critical questions are when and who will have how much share of the EM market at that time.
Articles/Megaposts by FluxCap - Page 4
In short the ICE apocalypse will likely happen in 2022 - 2024. This will coincide with the time EV reach 5% share of the new car market. The critical questions are when and who will have how much share of the EM market at that time.
jhm
Well-Known Member
WiFi is a really apt analogy.
I'm glad you mentioned parking. I hadn't mentioned it, but in many urban settings parking can be substantially more expensive than charging. So even if charging is free, you still have to cover parking. I believe the parking at Atlantic Station is upwards of $10 whether you use the Supercharger or not. If parking facilities are in a competitive situation, then offering free rewards charging can be an attractive amenity. Frankly, if I'm going to have to pay $120/month when nearby lots go for $65/month, I would expect some charging amenities. So its very much in the interest of parking operators to encourage the development of rewards based charging, otherwise competition may force them to foot the entire bill. Municipal and othe non-competitve parking lot operators may be persuaded by political means to foot the bill for charging. It's a complex and messy situation, but rewards based charging should at improve the economics for any sort of parking operator.
So right now Tesla is picking the lowest hanging fruit. What hotel with $200 rooms and $18 parking would say no to Tesla's Destination Charging program. 40kWh of electricity is a small cost to absorb at those rates. This is using the natural marketing value of charging to create free charging for patrons. To reach a little higher into the tree, I think marketing programs of greater sophistication can pluck out more fruit.
Another point is that I think Tesla should make optimal use of charging for its own marketing benefit. Obviously SC and DC programs are creating substantial marketing value for Tesla. But I think they can go further. In DC locations, they also like to place J1776 chargers for nonTesla vehicles. This is very smart hospitality. The EV owners who use these are potential Tesla conquests. If we take this further, such free charging could be provided at SC locations as well. Say you have 6 SC stalls, add two more J1776 stalls. (This also would provide some overflow for Tesla owners is needed.) Now if controlling the amount of charging at the hospitality stalls is an issue for Tesla, then let's consider a charger that requires authentication for use. The guest could simply register through a smartphone app and get a certain amount of free charging from that and any other Tesla hospitality charger. This is an excellent marketing value for Tesla, not only do they get to create a positive experience with the guest, but they get contact information useful for prospecting. Through the app they can provide marketing material to the prospect and direct them to the website or nearest store. Moreover, they can find out things like what vehicles does the prospect own and for how long, has the prospect ever test driven a Tesla, when might the prospect like to buy their next car, and how might Tesla contact them. When Tesla is trying to sell hundreds of thousands of cars this kind of interactive marketing and lead generation will be an invaluable tool. Automakers spend thousands of dollars per conquest. We really do want Leaf owners hanging out at SC locations dreaming about the day they'll upgrade to Supercharging and Tesla. We want to know when they are in the market and make sure they get a test drive before they buy their next car. And we absolutely want them to rub shoulders with happy Tesla owners because these are our best sales people. All this can happen around positive charging experiences.
BTW, as a statistician, I have worked in direct marketing for many years before going into finance. The interactive marketing opportunities that Tesla has are immense. They are a direct marketer's dream. If Tesla does interactive marketing well, they may need to spend very little on advertising for a very long time.
Just to put costs in perspective, the garage I use in Boston is fairly typical of central parking facilities in that city: daily rates of $32 and monthly at $390. Fortunately competition has forced nearly all the garages to install EV charging (6 stalls in my garage, which are heavily used). At these rates, charging costs are loose change in the sofa for the garages.
chickensevil
Active Member
I'm confused how getting a test drive/ride would be against anyone's investing principles. Why wouldn't you want to know as much about a company and product as possible BEFORE making an investment. Seems to me, given the opportunity you should check out both the roadster and the Model S and in the future Model X and 3. I mean sometimes it isn't practical to do that, but it shouldn't be a bad thing. Owning the product is also a good option because you should know how good or bad the product is. I can understand that owning the car and investing in the company as two different things and that can be a bit much, but how do you invest in only companies in which you in no way touch or use their services or whatever? That seems like a conflict to me because either you are keeping yourself from good products and services or you are investing in crappy companies. If you invested in Amazon would you stop using their website? If you invested in Netflix would you cancel your sub? And some companies are so large that you would just have to stay away from investing in them altogether... Like the major telecoms or oil companies or something like Unilever.
Emphasis mine.
In large cities, parking spots are a premium.
It is quite an exercise to find a parking spot in most locations in Sydney and I would imagine in most busy cities. Scarce parking spots would not work out well with the proposed reward points towards charging spots. The demand for parking availability trumps out the demand for charging availability.
Such dynamics would drive the behaviour of charging at home before going shopping and would devalue these reward programmes, mentioned upthread. The uncertainty of parking availability is so high that the low likelihood of finding free charging spot is not worth the risk. Designated charging spots are likely to be iced in shopping centres, as the penalties for such behaviour are extremely rare. Local shops that have designated parking within shopping centres, for their customers, get these spots regularly taken by other shoppers.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
It's very simple really. Using the product introduces risks of falling in love with the product and clouding objectivity while making decisions. If I paid top dollars for it, then it must be good. A psychological phenomena well observed in the wine industry.
I don't need to try it out to know the spec and read user reviews.
Also, I invest in people. So after throughly analyzing Elon, I went on to find TSLA. Not the other way around. During times of euphoria while I've been right more than 3 times in a row, I need the pessimist inside to shut down the euphoria. During the time when The stock is beaten down, I need the optimist in me to tell me that the time is ripe. Falling in love puts me in the perpetual state of the 2nd stage.
In short, i need the ability to hate the company at a moment's notice. And my investing style is unique to my own personality.
chickensevil
Active Member
I have long tried to follow a similar notion of investing in good management. If you don't or can't trust the heads of the company to have strong direction and ability to execute on a good idea then there is not point. So in the case of Tesla I too invested primarily because of Elon and JB.
But your list of companies that you can invest in while not using their product must be a small number of investments. I can understand if you have trouble making that separation so that is why you try to avoid combining the two, but I personally like to stick to investing in things I know... Which generally means things I use. But then I don't think I really have the issue of separating bad business from a good product and reading the market sentiment. *shrugs*
My best investments have largely been in companies whose products I used.
sundaymorning
Active Member
I was fortunate to come across this forum back in 2012 and a story told by a notable member known as "luvb2b" posted in the "2013 short term price movement" stuck with me till this very day and I wanted to re-share it with you. There were no icon for me to reply in the 2013 thread, so I copied and pasted the exact words of luvb2b below for you to read, it took me about an hour to find this vintage post, but well worth the time. Again, the thoughts and story told through the characters are not my own, they were presented by luvb2b, who got the story through another writer, with a career as an author of numerous books in stocks. I wanted to give the proper credit to that author, so I Googled the individual's name, I believe that author's name is Edwin Lefevre. Please correct me if I am wrong.
So here is the post by Luvb2b, and I quote:
"thought i would share with the board the story of climax motors. one of my favorite reads. the moral holds true today, the story as well. simply change "tesla" to "climax"... ooohhh oohh ohhhooooohh.... i think i just had one. hahahaha.
i sit around and read this story over and over again. it never gets old. in fact, seeing it in tesla motors is just poetic.
excerpted from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
"What do you think I ought to do?"
Old Turkey would cock his head to one side, contemplate his fellow customer with a
fatherly smile, and finally he would say very impressively, "You know, it's a bull
market!"
Time and again I heard him say, "Well, this is a bull market, you know!" as though he
were giving to you a priceless talisman wrapped up in a million-dollar accidentinsurance policy. And of course I did not get his meaning.
One day a fellow named Elmer Harwood rushed into the office, wrote out an order and
gave it to the clerk. Then he rushed over to where Mr. Partridge was listening politely to
John Fanning's story of the time he overheard Keene give an order to one of his brokers
and all that John made was a measly three points on a hundred shares and of course the
stock had to go up twenty-four points in three days right after John sold out. It was at
least the fourth time that John had told him that tale of woe, but old Turkey was smiling
as sympathetically as if it was the first time he heard it.
Well, Elmer made for the old man and, without a word of apology to John Fanning, told
Turkey, "Mr. Partridge, I have just sold my Climax Motors. My people say the market is
entitled to a reaction and that I'll be able to buy it back cheaper. So you'd better do
likewise. That is, if you've still got yours."
Elmer looked suspiciously at the man to whom he had given the original tip to buy. The
amateur, or gratuitous, tipster always thinks he owns the receiver of his tip body and
soul, even before he knows how the tip is going to turn out.
"Yes, Mr. Harwood, I still have it. Of course!" said Turkey gratefully. It was nice of
Elmer to think of the old chap. "Well, now is the time to take your profit and get in again
on the next dip," said Elmer, as if he had just made out the deposit slip for the old man.
Failing to perceive enthusiastic gratitude in the beneficiary's face Elmer went on: "I have
just sold every share I owned!"
From his voice and manner you would have conservatively estimated it at ten thousand
shares. But Mr. Partridge shook his head regretfully and whined, "No! No! I can't do
that!"
"What?" yelled Elmer.
"I simply can't!" said Mr. Partridge. He was in great trouble.
"Didn't I give you the tip to buy it?"
"You did, Mr. Harwood, and I am very grateful to you. Indeed, I am, sir. But "
"Hold on! Let me talk! And didn't that stock go op seven points in ten days? Didn't it?"
"It did, and I am much obliged to you, my dear boy. But I couldn't think of selling that
stock."
"You couldn't?" asked Elmer, beginning to look doubtful himself. It is a habit with most
tip givers to be tip takers.
"No, I couldn't."
"Why not?" And Elmer drew nearer.
"Why, this is a bull market!" The old fellow said it as though he had given a long and
detailed explanation.
"That's all right," said Elmer, looking angry because of his disappointment. "I know this
is a bull market as well as you do. But you'd better slip them that stock of yours and buy
it back on the reaction. You might as well reduce the cost to yourself."
"My dear boy," said old Partridge, in great distress "my dear boy, if I sold that stock now
I'd lose my position; and then where would I be?"
Elmer Harwood threw up his hands, shook his head and walked over to me to get
sympathy: "Can you beat it?" he asked me in a stage whisper. "I ask you "
I didn't say anything. So he went on: "I give him a tip on Climax Motors. He buys five
hundred shares. He's got seven points' profit and I advise him to get out and buy 'em
back on the reaction that's overdue even now. And what does he say when I tell him? He
says that if he sells he'll lose his job. What do you know about that?"
"I beg your pardon, Mr. Harwood; I didn't say I'd lose my job," cut in old Turkey. "I said I'd lose my position. And when you are as old as I am and you've been through as many
booms and panics as I have, you'll know that to lose your position is something nobody
can afford; not even John D. Rockefeller. I hope the stock reacts and that you will be
able to repurchase your line at a substantial concession, sir. But I myself can only trade
in accordance with the experience of many years. I paid a high price for it and I don't
feel like throwing away a second tuition fee. But I am as much obliged to you as if I had
the money in the bank. It's a bull market, you know." And he strutted away, leaving
Elmer dazed.
What old Mr. Partridge said did not mean much to me until I began to think about my
own numerous failures to make as much money as I ought to when I was so right on the
general market. The more I studied the more I realized how wise that old chap was. He
had evidently suffered from the same defect in his young days and knew his own human
weaknesses. He would not lay himself open to a temptation that experience had taught
him was hard to resist and had always proved expensive to him, as it was to me.
I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that
when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, "Well, you know this is a
bull market!" he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual
fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up
the entire market and its trend.
And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after
making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking
that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It
is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull
markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at
exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very
level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched
mine that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight
are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock
operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that
millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the
days of his ignorance."
So here is the post by Luvb2b, and I quote:
"thought i would share with the board the story of climax motors. one of my favorite reads. the moral holds true today, the story as well. simply change "tesla" to "climax"... ooohhh oohh ohhhooooohh.... i think i just had one. hahahaha.
i sit around and read this story over and over again. it never gets old. in fact, seeing it in tesla motors is just poetic.
excerpted from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
"What do you think I ought to do?"
Old Turkey would cock his head to one side, contemplate his fellow customer with a
fatherly smile, and finally he would say very impressively, "You know, it's a bull
market!"
Time and again I heard him say, "Well, this is a bull market, you know!" as though he
were giving to you a priceless talisman wrapped up in a million-dollar accidentinsurance policy. And of course I did not get his meaning.
One day a fellow named Elmer Harwood rushed into the office, wrote out an order and
gave it to the clerk. Then he rushed over to where Mr. Partridge was listening politely to
John Fanning's story of the time he overheard Keene give an order to one of his brokers
and all that John made was a measly three points on a hundred shares and of course the
stock had to go up twenty-four points in three days right after John sold out. It was at
least the fourth time that John had told him that tale of woe, but old Turkey was smiling
as sympathetically as if it was the first time he heard it.
Well, Elmer made for the old man and, without a word of apology to John Fanning, told
Turkey, "Mr. Partridge, I have just sold my Climax Motors. My people say the market is
entitled to a reaction and that I'll be able to buy it back cheaper. So you'd better do
likewise. That is, if you've still got yours."
Elmer looked suspiciously at the man to whom he had given the original tip to buy. The
amateur, or gratuitous, tipster always thinks he owns the receiver of his tip body and
soul, even before he knows how the tip is going to turn out.
"Yes, Mr. Harwood, I still have it. Of course!" said Turkey gratefully. It was nice of
Elmer to think of the old chap. "Well, now is the time to take your profit and get in again
on the next dip," said Elmer, as if he had just made out the deposit slip for the old man.
Failing to perceive enthusiastic gratitude in the beneficiary's face Elmer went on: "I have
just sold every share I owned!"
From his voice and manner you would have conservatively estimated it at ten thousand
shares. But Mr. Partridge shook his head regretfully and whined, "No! No! I can't do
that!"
"What?" yelled Elmer.
"I simply can't!" said Mr. Partridge. He was in great trouble.
"Didn't I give you the tip to buy it?"
"You did, Mr. Harwood, and I am very grateful to you. Indeed, I am, sir. But "
"Hold on! Let me talk! And didn't that stock go op seven points in ten days? Didn't it?"
"It did, and I am much obliged to you, my dear boy. But I couldn't think of selling that
stock."
"You couldn't?" asked Elmer, beginning to look doubtful himself. It is a habit with most
tip givers to be tip takers.
"No, I couldn't."
"Why not?" And Elmer drew nearer.
"Why, this is a bull market!" The old fellow said it as though he had given a long and
detailed explanation.
"That's all right," said Elmer, looking angry because of his disappointment. "I know this
is a bull market as well as you do. But you'd better slip them that stock of yours and buy
it back on the reaction. You might as well reduce the cost to yourself."
"My dear boy," said old Partridge, in great distress "my dear boy, if I sold that stock now
I'd lose my position; and then where would I be?"
Elmer Harwood threw up his hands, shook his head and walked over to me to get
sympathy: "Can you beat it?" he asked me in a stage whisper. "I ask you "
I didn't say anything. So he went on: "I give him a tip on Climax Motors. He buys five
hundred shares. He's got seven points' profit and I advise him to get out and buy 'em
back on the reaction that's overdue even now. And what does he say when I tell him? He
says that if he sells he'll lose his job. What do you know about that?"
"I beg your pardon, Mr. Harwood; I didn't say I'd lose my job," cut in old Turkey. "I said I'd lose my position. And when you are as old as I am and you've been through as many
booms and panics as I have, you'll know that to lose your position is something nobody
can afford; not even John D. Rockefeller. I hope the stock reacts and that you will be
able to repurchase your line at a substantial concession, sir. But I myself can only trade
in accordance with the experience of many years. I paid a high price for it and I don't
feel like throwing away a second tuition fee. But I am as much obliged to you as if I had
the money in the bank. It's a bull market, you know." And he strutted away, leaving
Elmer dazed.
What old Mr. Partridge said did not mean much to me until I began to think about my
own numerous failures to make as much money as I ought to when I was so right on the
general market. The more I studied the more I realized how wise that old chap was. He
had evidently suffered from the same defect in his young days and knew his own human
weaknesses. He would not lay himself open to a temptation that experience had taught
him was hard to resist and had always proved expensive to him, as it was to me.
I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that
when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, "Well, you know this is a
bull market!" he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual
fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up
the entire market and its trend.
And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after
making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking
that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It
is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull
markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at
exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very
level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched
mine that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight
are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock
operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that
millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the
days of his ignorance."
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Ah well, my taste in things are far out of the norm so I do not believe that what I like has mass appeal nor can I completely separate emotions from logic.
Yes you guessed right. My style is focused investment on a few stocks. Internalizing their daily movements so I become one with their natural ebb and flow. I hone my TA indicators to each stock until a specific combination gives me the most amount of statistical advantage and trade/invest base on that. In trading a stock, I use combined strategies of stocks, options, futures and commodities. This style cannot be done with too many stocks in the portfolio. It's the reverse diversification.
jhm said:
Not until there are demand problems with Model 3 or they're supporting a multi-unit L2 charger system that would give them the required support infrastructure. Authentication adds overhead and Tesla is trying to avoid it. The hospitality program is extremely cheap: they supply the chargers and the host does the rest. They want it to be cheap because that will allow them to maximize the number of sites.
Fortunately, I think most of us are sitting on TSLA core positions for the long run. Some do well on the short-term trades, many do not. Those core positions in TSLA should serve us well, though. Thanks for posting.
Thanks for posting sundaymorning, great post.
Agree with the spirit of the post, it is extremely difficult to time the market or to pick the tops and bottoms. Also, the importance of a bull market in making money is qute significant.
Picking when to exit is the hardest part for me. The analysis of my past trades reveals that sitting too long in a profitable position too often eats away at the profits. Most of my exits are late rather than too soon.
It would be fair to say that every trader needs to analyse their own trading history and learn from there which behaviours (mistakes) to manage better.
Same for me. :-( I have to pay more attention to management-side warning signs at companies I own.
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Nope. This is a dead trend.
This is reversing, largely because school districts in the suburbs are getting worse and worse, while those in the inner cities are getting better and better. So "moving to the suburbs" is often a negative move for school quality.
In fact, I can name a family which moved from the Minneapolis suburbs to Minneapolis proper *largely because of public school quality*. While several suburb-livers I know are springing for private schools to stay out of the public school system.
We can discuss why inner-city public schools had a worse reputation than suburban public schools for a while, but the fact is that it's a dated reputation which is no longer reliable. (One hypothesis with massive support is lead poisoning; gasoline lead exposure was much more prevalent in downtowns than in suburbs.)
- - - Updated - - -
Warning: Elon will be selling more stock to raise capital for expansion. So your deduction *does not work*. Suppose, for instance, that Elon doubles the stock outstanding by selling a secondary public offering to raise money for the Gigafactory -- then that would make your stock target ony $2750.
- - - Updated - - -
Maybe Tesla should start poaching execs from Amazon.com, the warehousing / logistics / delivery expert. Or from Alibaba (same business but for Chinese wholesalers).
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Talking about demand - I can not think clear after seeing this: Realist on Twitter: "Shipments of Electric motors from Fukuta to $TSLA , flat despite Dual Motor launch" I predict it is because I am not familiar with the logistics and how it all works.. but again, some times this TeslaAgnostic makes me re-think some things or just be cautious.
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