Losing enthusiasm for Model 3

[SomeJoe7777]

It is true that the majority of the public will not pay more for an EV than they'd have to pay for an equivalent ICE car.

That statement is true only with the assumption that the buyer considers the value of the ICE car and the value of the EV to be equivalent at the same price. Whether that is the case now, or whether that is the case in the future is debatable.

Why did consumers switch from cassette tapes to CDs? CDs were quite a bit more expensive and the CD players were a lot more expensive. They also didn't have portable models at first, and the ones that did come out were far bigger and bulkier than the venerable Walkman. On paper, this didn't look good for CD sales. But the audio quality, the random access to the songs, and uninterrupted play (no flipping the tape over) resulted in a better audio listening experience.

When the public moves to the opinion that the EV's driving and ownership experience is superior, then it can easily command a higher price.

 

[daniel]

That statement is true only with the assumption that the buyer considers the value of the ICE car and the value of the EV to be equivalent at the same price. Whether that is the case now, or whether that is the case in the future is debatable.

Why did consumers switch from cassette tapes to CDs? CDs were quite a bit more expensive and the CD players were a lot more expensive. They also didn't have portable models at first, and the ones that did come out were far bigger and bulkier than the venerable Walkman. On paper, this didn't look good for CD sales. But the audio quality, the random access to the songs, and uninterrupted play (no flipping the tape over) resulted in a better audio listening experience.

When the public moves to the opinion that the EV's driving and ownership experience is superior, then it can easily command a higher price.

"That statement is true only with the assumption that the buyer considers the value of the ICE car and the value of the EV to be equivalent at the same price."

The general car-buying public today do not consider electric propulsion to be an advantage. That's why "only" half a million people signed up for the Model 3, rather than five million. When we're asking how price (or a tax credit) will affect sales, your opinion, and my opinion, of the value of electric propulsion is not what matters. What matters is the general public's opinion. And just as it took several years for the general public to accept the Prius, so it will take several years for the general public to accept EVs. Only, EVs will take longer because there are some real drawbacks, mainly the cost of batteries and the infancy of the national charging network.

And this is okay because it will also take time for manufacturers to tool up to meet increased demand. Witness how much difficulty Tesla is having getting production numbers up to try to meet the demand for Model 3.

 

[206er]

Uh, we apples-to-apples compared buying a new Model 3 to leasing new ICE alternatives in the $35k-$40k range and found that the 3 really wasn't competitive for us.

Also interesting to note that our best insurance quote for the 3, from Geico, had the Model 3 coming in at almost $35 more per month than our ILX. Any of the ICE SUVs we've looked at have been between $40 (XC60) - $120 (CR-V) less than the ILX per month.

I wonder if Metromile's plug in device will present any problems for the 3... seems like a few folks have had issues with it not working on their Ss.

 

[steven415]

If it weren't for the tax credit, i would not get a Tesla. And i say this as a line stander on 3/31, a fan of Elon and an (former) investor.

I would've gladly spend 40K on a new car with 7.5k tax credit on this EV. Now that it's about 55000 (with tax), i'm not seeing as much value as I like and this is the most i'll ever spend on a depreciating asset.

I would hope Tesla turn into a Toyota or Honda type company (value and reliability) . But right now it does not seem like it and I am second guessing myself how much i'm willingly to pay for this T badge.

If i'm spending 55K on a car, should it last me 10+ years?
Following this forum has made me doubt that Teslas can last 10+ years. (as a result i actually pulled out of the stock due to all the horror stories of the 3 needing to go to service)

Or should i spend 30K on a civic/Camry/accord/CRV/RAV4 because I know those last 10+ years.

That's what causing me to lose my enthusiasm.

 

[Darren Donovan]

That statement is true only with the assumption that the buyer considers the value of the ICE car and the value of the EV to be equivalent at the same price. Whether that is the case now, or whether that is the case in the future is debatable.

Why did consumers switch from cassette tapes to CDs? CDs were quite a bit more expensive and the CD players were a lot more expensive. They also didn't have portable models at first, and the ones that did come out were far bigger and bulkier than the venerable Walkman. On paper, this didn't look good for CD sales. But the audio quality, the random access to the songs, and uninterrupted play (no flipping the tape over) resulted in a better audio listening experience.

When the public moves to the opinion that the EV's driving and ownership experience is superior, then it can easily command a higher price.

I was one of the early adopter for CD, but the cost difference between consumer electronics vs. automobiles is huge. Therein lies the problem. The average person in the US can't just go out and grab a mythical $35K Model 3, let a lone the close to $50K version.

 

[TT97]

I wonder if Metromile's plug in device will present any problems for the 3... seems like a few folks have had issues with it not working on their Ss.

As the 3 has no OBD port, MetroMile will likely have problems with the car.

 

[N5329K]

If it weren't for the tax credit, i would not get a Tesla. And i say this as a line stander on 3/31, a fan of Elon and an (former) investor.

I would've gladly spend 40K on a new car with 7.5k tax credit on this EV. Now that it's about 55000 (with tax), i'm not seeing as much value as I like and this is the most i'll ever spend on a depreciating asset.

I would hope Tesla turn into a Toyota or Honda type company (value and reliability) . But right now it does not seem like it and I am second guessing myself how much i'm willingly to pay for this T badge.

If i'm spending 55K on a car, should it last me 10+ years?
Following this forum has made me doubt that Teslas can last 10+ years. (as a result i actually pulled out of the stock due to all the horror stories of the 3 needing to go to service)

Or should i spend 30K on a civic/Camry/accord/CRV/RAV4 because I know those last 10+ years.

That's what causing me to lose my enthusiasm.

I think you might ask yourself, "How long has my personal computer lasted?" Even with OTA updates (which also come to your computer), this might be a hint to how long Model 3 will continue to do what you need and want it to do.
Robin

 

[seattlite2004]

Over the weekend, my 180k, 06 Prius got the dreaded P0A80, "Replace Hybrid Battery Pack". I found out first hand that the car isn't really driveable with an unhealthy or dead battery pack...didn't know this when I got the car back in 06. Its probably gonna be my last Toyota Hybrid cuz of this "feature".

I'm an in-line reservation holder and I need to get another car...I'm not getting a new battery pack. I need a new car today...so what do I do...I "just' bought a Bolt Premiere Trim. Before tax rebates..about $36.5 before other fees. I'll probably keep the reservation so that I'll be in the "front" of the config line for the AWD or performance model...if I don't like what I see...I'll cancel.

Interesting to note that most if not all the Bolt buyers were Mod 3 reservation holders..per the sales reps. Also interesting to find a DC fast charging station at the dealerships (most Chevy dealers have them), and are free to use during business hours.

 

[N5329K]

Over the weekend, my 180k, 06 Prius got the dreaded P0A80, "Replace Hybrid Battery Pack". I found out first hand that the car isn't really driveable with an unhealthy or dead battery pack...didn't know this when I got the car back in 06. Its probably gonna be my last Toyota Hybrid cuz of this "feature".

I'm an in-line reservation holder and I need to get another car...I'm not getting a new battery pack. I need a new car today...so what do I do...I "just' bought a Bolt Premiere Trim. Before tax rebates..about $36.5 before other fees. I'll probably keep the reservation so that I'll be in the "front" of the config line for the AWD or performance model...if I don't like what I see...I'll cancel.

Interesting to note that most if not all the Bolt buyers were Mod 3 reservation holders..per the sales reps. Also interesting to find a DC fast charging station at the dealerships (most Chevy dealers have them), and are free to use during business hours.

I replaced the main battery on my Gen 1 Prius when it looked like Model 3 was going to take too long to appear. It wasn't a huge deal, and not all that expensive (the dealership had nothing to do with the job). Runs like a new car again.
Robin

 

[tmoz]

Used Priuses can be had for $5000. If they last you 2 or 3 years, that buys you time.

 

[daniel]

If i'm spending 55K on a car, should it last me 10+ years?

I think that's a reasonable expectation. My Tesla Roadster is now at about three months shy of seven years, and it still running fine, no apparent degradation of the battery pack. I'm selling it because now I have the Model 3. I expect my Model 3 to last well over ten years, though I expect to replace it when FSD comes out, as I expect that to work better with hardware that takes the latest software into account.

Following this forum has made me doubt that Teslas can last 10+ years. (as a result i actually pulled out of the stock due to all the horror stories of the 3 needing to go to service)

As has been noted elsewhere, everybody with a problem will post. The folks without problems seldom do. What percentage of Model 3 have had serious problems? I do think waiting a year is a good idea for folks who are averse to any risk at all.

 

[Stirfelt]

Seattlelite2004 - I hope you don't think an ICE vehicle will be drivable with a dead or dying engine? Back in my youth, the ICE would keep running until it was dead .... modern engines have so many sensors, monitors and pollution controls, they will shut themselves off even if the mechanical aspects (crank, pistons, cams) of the engine are still functioning.

I owned a 2010 Prius, and the Service Manager was a close friend. He told me (this was back in 2015) that the local Toyota Dealership had not experienced a single failed battery on the 3rd generation Prius. He said the few battery failures that had occurred were all on 2nd generation Prius.
Since 2015, I have owned a Toyota Avalon hybrid, and I have been unable to detect any issues what-so-ever with the hybrid system.

I suspect the secret is good battery management. I've been told the Prius maintains the hybrid battery between 20% and 80% charge.
I've come to believe the same will be true with the Tesla battery. I've read several post that warn against a 100% charge .... unless you are on a trip and will drive off immediately.

 

[tmoz]

Seattlelite2004 - I hope you don't think an ICE vehicle will be drivable with a dead or dying engine? Back in my youth, the ICE would keep running until it was dead .... modern engines have so many sensors, monitors and pollution controls, they will shut themselves off even if the mechanical aspects (crank, pistons, cams) of the engine are still functioning.

I owned a 2010 Prius, and the Service Manager was a close friend. He told me (this was back in 2015) that the local Toyota Dealership had not experienced a single failed battery on the 3rd generation Prius. He said the few battery failures that had occurred were all on 2nd generation Prius.
Since 2015, I have owned a Toyota Avalon hybrid, and I have been unable to detect any issues what-so-ever with the hybrid system.

I suspect the secret is good battery management. I've been told the Prius maintains the hybrid battery between 20% and 80% charge.
I've come to believe the same will be true with the Tesla battery. I've read several post that warn against a 100% charge .... unless you are on a trip and will drive off immediately.

Back in the day, I felt like I won the jackpot when the car actually started when I turned the key. So those old faithful rugged cars of old, weren't always so faithful.

 

[sreams]

Uh, we apples-to-apples compared buying a new Model 3 to leasing new ICE alternatives in the $35k-$40k range and found that the 3 really wasn't competitive for us.

Also interesting to note that our best insurance quote for the 3, from Geico, had the Model 3 coming in at almost $35 more per month than our ILX. Any of the ICE SUVs we've looked at have been between $40 (XC60) - $120 (CR-V) less than the ILX per month.

I wonder if Metromile's plug in device will present any problems for the 3... seems like a few folks have had issues with it not working on their Ss.

Did you factor everything in? My situation has me saving $1K/yr on fuel by owning a Model 3. So... initial price $49K. After Federal credit, CA rebate, SMUD rebate, and Federal EVSE credit, that drops to $37,800. If I keep the car for 10 years, fuel savings drop it again to $27,800. And that doesn't consider potential maintenance savings.

If the argument is that you wouldn't keep a car for 10 years... I think the simplicity of an EV encourages long ownership, unlike an ICE where there is so much more (mechanically) to break.

 

[seattlite2004]

Seattlelite2004 - I hope you don't think an ICE vehicle will be drivable with a dead or dying engine? Back in my youth, the ICE would keep running until it was dead .... modern engines have so many sensors, monitors and pollution controls, they will shut themselves off even if the mechanical aspects (crank, pistons, cams) of the engine are still functioning.

I owned a 2010 Prius, and the Service Manager was a close friend. He told me (this was back in 2015) that the local Toyota Dealership had not experienced a single failed battery on the 3rd generation Prius. He said the few battery failures that had occurred were all on 2nd generation Prius.
Since 2015, I have owned a Toyota Avalon hybrid, and I have been unable to detect any issues what-so-ever with the hybrid system.

I suspect the secret is good battery management. I've been told the Prius maintains the hybrid battery between 20% and 80% charge.
I've come to believe the same will be true with the Tesla battery. I've read several post that warn against a 100% charge .... unless you are on a trip and will drive off immediately.

I'm still skeptacle....We'll see what happens to those 3rd/4th gen batts after 10 years and >150k miles.

The Prius engine and electric motor were fine...will probably last several K more miles...it's the batt(s) that failed.

 

[steven415]

I think you might ask yourself, "How long has my personal computer lasted?" Even with OTA updates (which also come to your computer), this might be a hint to how long Model 3 will continue to do what you need and want it to do.
Robin

My computer cost nowhere near 55,000 and i usually rebuild my computers every 4-5 years. Tesla isn't known for lasting forever like a honda or toyota yet. But i do believe it's better than Mercedes, GM, and Ford cars.

I think that's a reasonable expectation. My Tesla Roadster is now at about three months shy of seven years, and it still running fine, no apparent degradation of the battery pack. I'm selling it because now I have the Model 3. I expect my Model 3 to last well over ten years, though I expect to replace it when FSD comes out, as I expect that to work better with hardware that takes the latest software into account.

As has been noted elsewhere, everybody with a problem will post. The folks without problems seldom do. What percentage of Model 3 have had serious problems? I do think waiting a year is a good idea for folks who are averse to any risk at all.

My guess of model 3 problems is about 10%, whether it be minor or major. 10% of model 3 owners will need to go to a service center. (At least all VINs up to 9000s). I would love for tesla to release info about this to their shareholders... only one can hope.

 

[daniel]

My computer cost nowhere near 55,000 and i usually rebuild my computers every 4-5 years. Tesla isn't known for lasting forever like a honda or toyota yet. But i do believe it's better than Mercedes, GM, and Ford cars.



My guess of model 3 problems is about 10%, whether it be minor or major. 10% of model 3 owners will need to go to a service center. (At least all VINs up to 9000s). I would love for tesla to release info about this to their shareholders... only one can hope.

I don't think it's valid to lump minor problems with major. For me the important number is How many cars (or rather, what percentage) become non-functional and require service outside of regular maintenance visits. Both my Civic and my Prius have required service other than scheduled maintenance, but never outside of regular maintenance visits. That is, I go in for the regular service and they tell me, your gnubnub needs replacing.

In almost seven years, my Roadster became non-functional once and needed a special visit from the ranger to replace one of the shift buttons. Other than that, a few things had to be done at the same time as regular service. And the TPMS failed when the batteries ran out, which required service, but the car remained functional.

How many times per thousand car-years will a Model 3 become non-functional and require service before it can be driven? That's the bottom line for reliability.

Your guess that 10% of Model 3 owners will have to get service, if you mean in the lifetime of the car, sounds better than almost any other car you can buy today. If you mean each year, then I'd ask for evidence, because I don't think you have any. We just don't know.

There are folks who are cautious and will want to wait to see how reliable the car is before they buy it. That is a very reasonable stance. There are other folks who are willing to take the risk in order to drive this wonderful car now rather than waiting. I'm in that category. If I lose the car-quality lottery I will regret my decision. <Knock on wood!> This car has taken me a couple of weeks to really get used to, and now that I am, I really like it.

 

[djplong]

If it weren't for the expiring (eventually) $7500 credit, I most likely would have waited for the AWD Model 3. But my Camry is starting to have problems as I'm now over 298,000 miles. I'm failing my emissions inspection and, to pass, it will require me to buy my FOURTH $1000 catalytic convertor (my car has two so this will be two complete changes in the 11.5 years I've owned this car, bought it when it had about 70,000 miles on it).

Other than that, my Camry has only once truly failed me (snapped a belt so no water pump or alternator). Now it's got a number of parts failing, NONE of which even EXIST on an ICE. It's enough to make me willing to take a chance on a '3' because even a bad '3' is better than a 'good' ICE.

This will be the most expensive depreciating 'thing' I've ever bought. But I keep cars until the wheels fall off and I'm hoping the shorter-term financial pain of a new and high car payment pays off in the long run.

 

[206er]

Did you factor everything in? My situation has me saving $1K/yr on fuel by owning a Model 3. So... initial price $49K. After Federal credit, CA rebate, SMUD rebate, and Federal EVSE credit, that drops to $37,800. If I keep the car for 10 years, fuel savings drop it again to $27,800. And that doesn't consider potential maintenance savings.

If the argument is that you wouldn't keep a car for 10 years... I think the simplicity of an EV encourages long ownership, unlike an ICE where there is so much more (mechanically) to break.

Well, we considered as much as possible... but coming from a Honda/Acura background has meant that our maintenance costs have been like $150-$200 per year (only oil changes really) and there are no great EV incentives in WA State (measly sales tax exemption on the first $32k of an EV will probably expire well before the first $35k Model 3 is ever delivered in WA). We've always been a 1 car family, and never been without our car for more than around an hour for service.

So, latest/last delivery delay pushing $35k estimate to early 2019, no real state incentives & likely loss of the full $7,500 federal tax credit by the time the car would be delivered, questions about quality/reliability and actual maintenance costs, sky high quotes to install a 15-40 outlet in our garage (lowest of 4 bids was around $1k), not being wowed by a $49k Model 3 after spending a few hours with one, and uncertainty about actually saving on fuel costs (Seattle electricity rates aren't cheap or expensive, but sadly gas has and will probably continue to hover around $3/gallon) all kinda made cancelling and looking into other options for $35-$40k a better choice for us. Plus, we can lease and upgrade to something else in 3 years whereas we'd have to buy the Model 3 since no leasing option is on the table.

 

[daniel]

... not being wowed by a $49k Model 3 after spending a few hours with one..

It has taken me close to three weeks to really start to become comfortable with my Model 3. After the first week I was wondering if I'd made a mistake. Near the two-week mark I was thinking I really like the Roadster better. Now, at three weeks I'm really confident that I made the right choice.

I generally have a similar experience whenever I get a new computer.

Given your circumstances, I think you made the right choice for you. The car is definitely not for everyone, and Honda makes excellent cars. I'm happy that I gave it a chance, though, because for me, I think it's going to turn out to be the best car I've ever had, and better as I really get the hang of it and they make some improvements in the software.