Losing enthusiasm for Model 3

[david_42]

I was one of the early adopter for CD, but the cost difference between consumer electronics vs. automobiles is huge. Therein lies the problem. The average person in the US can't just go out and grab a mythical $35K Model 3, let a lone the close to $50K version.

The average price of a new "lightweight vehicle" in the USA in 2017 is over $36k, which is out of the range for most people. On the other hand, most people can afford to buy a 3-4 year old car for $20k that will run another five years without serious problems. And the bulk of cars sales are in the used market. Six of the nine vehicles I've owned have been used. My new cars have run $2k (1972), $11k (1989) and $34k (2004) and I'm having a difficult time justifying $50k+ to replace a $6k Kia that has no problems.

Only time will tell if a Model 3 will have a strong resale market. The Model S and X have done well from that standpoint. The Leaf has been a disaster for people buying new, because the lack of thermal management for the battery meant very short life expectancy and I suspect people are projecting that onto other EV.

 

[Carotene]

I really like this thread. Real folks with real budgets expressing completely valid concerns/reservations about a big (to me) purchase. I posted earlier in this thread about life priorities including kids' expenses and kitchen remodel. Caught some sarcasm by another poster for that one

Anyway, I just reserved a M3 rental through turo.com for this weekend. It's even got EAP! It's worth the $200 and change to have 24hrs of one-on-one time with the car. I'm deciding this weekend how to move forward on this decision.

 

[daniel]

I really like this thread. Real folks with real budgets expressing completely valid concerns/reservations about a big (to me) purchase. I posted earlier in this thread about life priorities including kids' expenses and kitchen remodel. Caught some sarcasm by another poster for that one

Anyway, I just reserved a M3 rental through turo.com for this weekend. It's even got EAP! It's worth the $200 and change to have 24hrs of one-on-one time with the car. I'm deciding this weekend how to move forward on this decision.

I'd have done that if I'd had the opportunity. I suspect it would have made me cancel, or at least postpone my purchase. My first week with the car was disappointing, until I got the feel of it.

 

[TEG]

A friend loaned me his model 3 for a few days... I didn't cancel my reservation even though there were some things that were concerning. They were outweighed by all the great things.
My enthusiasm has been dropping just due to the uncertainty and delays mostly. Running out of stamina to keep the enthusiasm going... This is a marathon.

 

[EVNow]

Or should i spend 30K on a civic/Camry/accord/CRV/RAV4 because I know those last 10+ years.

To me a fossil fuel car that last 10+ years spewing toxic chemicals into the air we all breath is a bug - not a feature

 

[Gtosnipey]

I know I'm probably going to get plenty of blowback on this post, but I don't really care. I admit that I was very excited and passionate when I originally put in my deposit online night of the reveal in 2016. That was now nearly two years ago. Since then, GM has brought a full-fledged long-range EV to market, and seems to have no shortage of them available. Yes, I know comparing the Bolt and Model 3 is an apples and oranges comparison. I get it.

Secondly, we're nowhere near the $35,000 real-world price that was promised, and it looks like it's going to be a long time until that's the case.

Thirdly, the Model 3 will soon no longer be the only game in town in terms of a reasonably affordable long-range (200+ mile) EV. It ceased to be that when the Bolt came out. At this point, I'm not asking for a refund, but I'm honestly not sure what I'm going to do when I finally do get my configuration invite. At this point, I'm not in critical need of a third vehicle in the household. I sold one of my other ICE cars in anticipation of the Model 3, in retrospect, somewhat naïvely thinking I would get it "any day now."

Now, I see announcements of the Hyundai Kona EV and Kia Niro EV. Both of those would fit my needs fine, and I find them more aesthetically pleasing that the somewhat awkward-looking Bolt. However, even my initial revulsion to the Bolt's styling has subdued somewhat. I no longer "hate" it. I still think it's awkward-looking, but I'm to the point where I'd consider it as a daily driver, regardless of styling.

I know none of the vehicles I've mentioned have that status or performance of the Model 3. But I'm to the point where I no longer care about having the "newest, shiniest" thing on the road. If I wanted that, I should have stood in line first day, which I didn't. But considering all of the quality issues I've heard about on the early-run models, I'm not sure I would have wanted one. I'm going to give it until mid-summer 2018 to see if I get my invite. If August '18 comes and goes and still no invite, at that point, I think I'm probably going to ask for my money back.

I'm still a believer in Tesla's mission and what Elon is doing advancing technology in multiple industries. However, I think his showmanship gets him in trouble sometimes in terms of over-promising and under-delivering. I wish he'd be a little more realistic in the timeline goals he announces.

I'm so glad you wrote this article. I debated doing the same for the last, I would say 2 months but knew what type of responses and replies would come. When I put my deposit down I was thrilled and riding the Model 3 hype train. Since the 2016 reveal and my day 1 preorder I have been losing steam. Especially with the recent delays to production pushing the dates further and further out.

I also agree with the pricing as you mentioned, we have the mandatory long range which I want, and the premium features, putting me after taxes and delivery at $54,000 (my estimates based on 8.1% Nevada tax and delivery fee). I know a longer range and premium features cost more, I don't know I just had an idea that $35,000 was going to be closer to the price I could get my day one pre-order for. Not all of us are Tesla Model S, owners or can afford $1,100 - $1,400 monthly car payments.

I'm not asking for a refund either, and have no intent on getting a Bolt, but again am just deflated. I still enjoy Tesla as a brand, I went to see the Model 3 in the showroom last week here in Vegas and it looks nice..... I don't know, I guess we will see if this Mar-May date sticks and I get the invite. Just wanted to chime in that I too am having all of the same feelings. Lets hope we get some good news soon!

 

[tmoz]

My son wants to get a model 3, so he looked at the trade in value for his 2010 prius that has 120K on it.
$5K. The car is still working perfectly fine. 55 mpg. Still on the 1st set of brakes. Minor stuff isn't breaking like on most Chevy's we've had in the past. That delta is just too wide to cross. Gonna have to wait until the car dies. But then the though is, Heck, buy a used Prius for 5K and get another 5 yrs out of it.

 

[AlanSqB]

Or should i spend 30K on a civic/Camry/accord/CRV/RAV4 because I know those last 10+ years.

Honda Clarity $7.5k credit. Prius Prime $4.5k credit.

You didn’t mention Chevy, but both of their plug ins have a $7.5k credit.

There are options.

 

[seattlite2004]

Honda Clarity $7.5k credit. Prius Prime $4.5k credit.

You didn’t mention Chevy, but both of their plug ins have a $7.5k credit.

There are options.

After my 06 Prius died....I thought really hard on the Clarity Plug-in. I got to fondle the Touring edition at a recent car show and I really liked the interior styling, fit and finish. It's got much more rear seat room than the Volt and it has a pretty cool adaptive cruise control...down to a stop. I setup an appointment at a local Honda dealer using the Costco buying program, but the night before the meet...I double check the exterior dimensions...the Clarity was just a few inches shorter than a Model S...about 18 in longer than the 06 Prius. The Clarity was too big for me...so I decided to pass and "just" get a Bolt. That 7K discount off MSRP on the Bolt Premiere was too compelling.

 

[geometro]

After my 06 Prius died....I thought really hard on the Clarity Plug-in. I got to fondle the Touring edition at a recent car show and I really liked the interior styling, fit and finish. It's got much more rear seat room than the Volt and it has a pretty cool adaptive cruise control...down to a stop. I setup an appointment at a local Honda dealer using the Costco buying program, but the night before the meet...I double check the exterior dimensions...the Clarity was just a few inches shorter than a Model S...about 18 in longer than the 06 Prius. The Clarity was too big for me...so I decided to pass and "just" get a Bolt. That 7K discount off MSRP on the Bolt Premiere was too compelling.

Was this a recent purchase? I’m going for a test drive this weekend, but haven’t even started looking at prices.
How do you like the Bolt?

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

Over the weekend, my 180k, 06 Prius got the dreaded P0A80, "Replace Hybrid Battery Pack". I found out first hand that the car isn't really driveable with an unhealthy or dead battery pack...didn't know this when I got the car back in 06. Its probably gonna be my last Toyota Hybrid cuz of this "feature".

I'm an in-line reservation holder and I need to get another car...I'm not getting a new battery pack. I need a new car today...so what do I do...I "just' bought a Bolt Premiere Trim. Before tax rebates..about $36.5 before other fees. I'll probably keep the reservation so that I'll be in the "front" of the config line for the AWD or performance model...if I don't like what I see...I'll cancel.

Interesting to note that most if not all the Bolt buyers were Mod 3 reservation holders..per the sales reps. Also interesting to find a DC fast charging station at the dealerships (most Chevy dealers have them), and are free to use during business hours.

Noooooo!!!! Well, not really. I can see why you would choose to buy a new car if they didn't have a spare they could drive. At the same time, if you were able to shop around, replacing the whole pack should be about $1000 (newer/low mile salvage pack) to $2000 (lower dealer price after core charge), plus tax, labor, etc, and should keep the car going for another 100k+ miles.

There's also replacing the module that went sideways, but I wouldn't recommend that unless you're doing the labor yourself because an older pack will probably have more modules fail in the near future, and the cost of labor will eventually exceed the cost of a newer salvage or new pack. I'm fairly handy, and have done that 4 times in the last 3.5 years with my old Prius, and it's the least expensive option by a mile ($30-$50 per used module on eh4y), but it's a pain and takes about 6 hours. It's not the end of the world, but it is annoying. There is one more option that I haven't tried, which is to re-hydrate the battery modules.

Re-hydrating the battery modules.

Not many people have tried it because a new or lightly used battery will easily do another 100k+ miles for $1k-$2k (DIY install), but if it works it would be ideal because I could pull a battery, test/re-hydrate the modules, replace any that are still weak after re-hydrating, and hopefully have at least a few years of driving without problems instead of having to replace another failed module every 9 months or so.

 

[daniel]

My son wants to get a model 3, so he looked at the trade in value for his 2010 prius that has 120K on it.
$5K. The car is still working perfectly fine. 55 mpg. Still on the 1st set of brakes. Minor stuff isn't breaking like on most Chevy's we've had in the past. That delta is just too wide to cross. Gonna have to wait until the car dies. But then the though is, Heck, buy a used Prius for 5K and get another 5 yrs out of it.

A used car will always be more economical transportation than a new car. And not everybody can afford a new car. If your son gets that used Prius and gets another five years out of it, there will be 5-year-old Model 3's on the market, probably not as low as $5K, but probably affordable if he wants to kick the gas habit and go electric.

For electric cars to go truly mainstream one of two things has to happen, in addition to the inevitable build-up of charging infrastructure: either batteries have to come way down in cost, or the price of gasoline (currently heavily subsidized both directly and by dumping the enormous externalities of pollution and carbon onto the general public) has to go up. If gas were sold at its true cost, EVs would be competitive now.

Anyway, not everyone can afford an EV, and a used Prius is a good interim car until the Model 3 has been around long enough to be available on the used market.

 

[N5329K]

I can see why you would choose to buy a new car if they didn't have a spare they could drive. At the same time, if you were able to shop around, replacing the whole pack should be about $1000 (newer/low mile salvage pack) to $2000 (lower dealer price after core charge), plus tax, labor, etc, and should keep the car going for another 100k+ miles.

$2400 for a Gen 1 pack. I had two modules go south (they were oozing green crud). I didn't think just replacing those two bad ones was a great idea. Two years in, the new pack works fine.
Robin

 

[AlanSqB]

After my 06 Prius died....I thought really hard on the Clarity Plug-in. I got to fondle the Touring edition at a recent car show and I really liked the interior styling, fit and finish. It's got much more rear seat room than the Volt and it has a pretty cool adaptive cruise control...down to a stop. I setup an appointment at a local Honda dealer using the Costco buying program, but the night before the meet...I double check the exterior dimensions...the Clarity was just a few inches shorter than a Model S...about 18 in longer than the 06 Prius. The Clarity was too big for me...so I decided to pass and "just" get a Bolt. That 7K discount off MSRP on the Bolt Premiere was too compelling.

Yeah, it’s a pretty big car. Having come from a number of smaller cars, I’m enjoying the “luxury” feel. However, if you live in the city your handle is from, I absolutely understand the size concern. I visit there quite often and try to always get the smallest rental car I can for trips when I rent. More often I just try to use public transport. The Clarity would not be fun to try to park in town.

 

[geometro]

Anyone still here, or did you all get swept up in the flood of invites?

 

[TEG]

What more is there to say... I keep reloading my reservation page multiple times per day (for the past 5 months), but still just shows the same of Mar-May.

I keep thinking back to the months wasted of refreshing during the Nov-Jan window, and the Dec-Feb window. I am stuck on a treadmill.

 

[vinnie97]

^I'm feeling guilty now, as mine finally arrived.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

What more is there to say... I keep reloading my reservation page multiple times per day (for the past 5 months), but still just shows the same of Mar-May.

I keep thinking back to the months wasted of refreshing during the Nov-Jan window, and the Dec-Feb window. I am stuck on a treadmill.

Get a dog...or a girlfriend...or a hobby...something. LOL!

Dan

 

[TEG]

A wife, two kids, and a cat still can't pry my hands away from the reload button.

Hobby? Does 19K posts here count?

 

[voip-ninja]

A wife, two kids, and a cat still can't pry my hands away from the reload button.

Hobby? Does 19K posts here count?

Dude, it's just a car.