Lucid Air & Faraday Future FF 91 - will we see Model S Gen 2 by 2018?

[calisnow]

Okay I'm going on record - I believe we will see the second generation Model S before year end 2018. I predict that while it may not go full Chinese execu-barge it will be larger inside with a larger, reclining back seat (perhaps an extended wheelbase option) - and that it will equal or surpass the interior visual "wow" factor of Lucid and FF.

Yes I know that both Lucid and FF may never see the light of day but my money says FF get an injection of cash after CES and at least one of these two cars sees production in the U.S.

By 2018? Maybe not but they have unveiled what they claim are final production versions of their car - Tesla will respond. I can't see Musk letting these upstarts steal the glory of the Model S.

The question is - how soon?

 

[croman]

Tesla is selling 20k+ Model S units per quarter. Why change something that is clearly in high demand based on speculation? They can keep doing iterative improvements without revamping the entire car. I know you are proposing some iterative improvements but changing the wheelbase would be redoing the entire car from the ground up and require new crash testing. Seems like a lot for a car company that is struggling to deliver AP2 to customers and release the Model 3.

 

[freeewilly]

I also believe Tesla will release second generation model s design in 2018, not because of any reason you mentioned. MS was first delivered in 2012, doesn't matter how much we like the current design, it's been 6 years. Most luxury vehicles redesign every 7-8 years.

Second reason is 2170 battery, it dramatically reduce the cost and probably won't be installed in current version of MS. After Model 3 is fully in production, I believe the design and engineer team will start working on the next MS with 2170 battery.

 

[habanero69]

I also believe Tesla will release second generation model s design in 2018, not because of any reason you mentioned. MS was first delivered in 2012, doesn't matter how much we like the current design, it's been 6 years. Most luxury vehicles redesign every 7-8 years.

Second reason is 2170 battery, it dramatically reduce the cost and probably won't be installed in current version of MS. After Model 3 is fully in production, I believe the design and engineer team will start working on the next MS with 2170 battery.

Is it totally out of the realm that a battery pack w/2170 cells could not be put into the current S/X? Obviously some charging software/hardware/cooling may be required to accommodate, but size wise, any reason it could not?

 

[democappy]

Tesla is selling 20k+ Model S units per quarter. Why change something that is clearly in high demand based on speculation? They can keep doing iterative improvements without revamping the entire car. I know you are proposing some iterative improvements but changing the wheelbase would be redoing the entire car from the ground up and require new crash testing. Seems like a lot for a car company that is struggling to deliver AP2 to customers and release the Model 3.

This would match my thoughts. Model 3 and AP2 have to be the focus right now. They are just way more important to the long-term vision. I also just can't take Lucid or FF seriously yet anyway. I can't imagine they are causing Tesla to make design choices. Why would you change something people are buying a lot of because someone introduced a product that as far as I can tell is not even causing much excitement in the very niche segment they are shooting for.

 

[calisnow]

...After Model 3 is fully in production, I believe the design and engineer team will start working on the next MS with 2170 battery.

How do we know there are not multiple design and engineering teams working on different lines simultaneously? Tesla is growing leaps and bounds - cars are planned in advance - if they even plan to have a second generation Model S on the road by 2019 they must be working on it right now internally.

This would match my thoughts. Model 3 and AP2 have to be the focus right now. They are just way more important to the long-term vision. I also just can't take Lucid or FF seriously yet anyway. I can't imagine they are causing Tesla to make design choices. Why would you change something people are buying a lot of because someone introduced a product that as far as I can tell is not even causing much excitement in the very niche segment they are shooting for.

By this logic Musk would never have introduced the Model S in the first place. Also by your logic you assume Tesla only has resources to design one car at a time - when in fact we know they were working on the Model 3 at the same time as the X. AFA we know the Model 3 major design elements were finished months ago in any case. They are growing by leaps and bounds - and to me it would seem very unlikely that they do *not* have multiple engineering teams at this point working on automotive designs the public has never even heard about - like the second gen Model S.

 

[democappy]

By this logic Musk would never have introduced the Model S in the first place. Also by your logic you assume Tesla only has resources to design one car at a time - when in fact we know they were working on the Model 3 at the same time as the X. AFA we know the Model 3 major design elements were finished months ago in any case. They are growing by leaps and bounds - and to me it would seem very unlikely that they do *not* have multiple engineering teams at this point working on automotive designs the public has never even heard about - like the second gen Model S.

I don't think my logic has anything to do with originally building the model S. They built the roadster so they could build the model S so they could build the model 3. FF's proto type is closer in lifecycle stage to the roadster in terms of actual sales potential in my opinion, but maybe it won't be as ridiculously overpriced as I think. I am not saying they are not working on revisions to the model S. I am just saying FF is not scaring them into switch gears and do new design revamps. I don't see FF taking more than a very tiny sliver of the S market even if Tesla does nothing.

 

[James Anders]

2018 they will be focused on the Model Y, trucks, etc.

 

[strider]

By this logic Musk would never have introduced the Model S in the first place. Also by your logic you assume Tesla only has resources to design one car at a time - when in fact we know they were working on the Model 3 at the same time as the X. AFA we know the Model 3 major design elements were finished months ago in any case. They are growing by leaps and bounds - and to me it would seem very unlikely that they do *not* have multiple engineering teams at this point working on automotive designs the public has never even heard about - like the second gen Model S.

Not true. Roadster sales were declining towards the end and they were ordering a lot of spec cars to meet minimum numbers from Lotus.

That said I agree with you about the design teams but w/ Tesla the problem has always been execution. So yeah, the design of MS 2.0 could be done but there's NO WAY they can implement it in the midst of Model 3. They're trying to grow production capacity by 10X for Pete's sake! There is zero time to spend on the MS/X production lines until M3 is WELL out the door. Just AP2 caused them to miss their Q4 and 2016 delivery targets. An even greater refresh will take even more resources. I wouldn't expect any significant MS/X changes until 2020 (obviously, we can argue about the definition of significant).

 

[WarpedOne]

MS just had a midlife face-lift. This by definition comes in the middle of model lifetime.
It was introduced in 2012, face-lifted in 2016 hence in should see 2020 mostly unchanged with some new options and color removals.
In 2020 we can expect a Model S gen2 - a ground-up rework of skateboard and chassis.
Current MX will probably have a shorter life as it will get the new skate-board soon after MS2, say in 2021.