OP..
I live in a city called Temecula, in CA, and Commute to Oceanside CA which is in San Diego. I live in Southern California, so I feel my weather experience is close "enough" to yours. We both have pretty temperate winters, for example.
I have a model 3 performance, not a short range, so its not quite apples to apples. I have a 75-76 mile daily commute to work and back. I picked the car up december 4th. During the month of december and january, my 75-76 "actual" mile commute took somewhere of 90-120 miles of "range" from the car. As it has warmed up, my 75 mile commute takes about 80 miles "range".
On rainy days, my same commute can take 120 or even 130 miles of range, depending on if I use the climate control or not. During dec / jan, I was commuting to work with the climate control system off most days, trying to make sure I understood what was happening with my mileage / range etc.... the same things most new EV drivers go through.
I figured out that rain really effects range for example, even if you dont have climate control on. I figured out that higher speeds REALLY do a number on range. The freeway by me has a speed limit of 70 MPH.. and when traffic allows, the actual speed of traffic is around 80. Sometimes its 80 MPH on that freeway, and sometimes its 15 MPH.
With your commute, and your child, and your work schedule, I would imagine the LAST thing you would want to do would be to stop on the way home with son in tow. I would imagine your work does not stop when you get home, either.
Even if you could reliably make it "most of the time" without charging, you would be cutting it very close, and cycling the battery from almost full to almost empty every single day.
The SR car is the wrong car for you You will end up hating it, if you have to stop at a super charger 2-3 days a week and still charge when you get home. What about stops at the store on the way home for example? You will be eyeballing that range meter every day, and it will likely cause you anxiety.
If you want the savings of driving an EV and want a Tesla, here is another vote to look for a 1 year old one Long Range RWD or AWD. It likely wouldnt be 10k more.
You are likely looking at an extra 30 minute total time spent charging during the winter.. and you are talking about taking this car to 200k miles. You ARE going to lose range over time, all batteries do. The longer you drive this car, the more time you will spend charging on your way home. I say 30 extra minutes because even if you only need 15 minutes of charge, you have to GET to the super charger, park in a stall, plug in, charge, unplug, and get back on the road. That makes a 15 minute super charge more like 20-25 actual minutes spent.
Do you want to get home 1/2 hour later than you do right now, pretty much every day during the winter, and when it rains, and when its cold? Do you want to be constantly staring at the range gauge, and unlike most EV owners, actually have something to be worried about? Do you want to be stuck in traffic, and think "wow I better turn off the climate control, or I will have to detour to the supercharger".
I dont see this working for 200k miles, not with the short range car. Look for a demo model 3 from tesla or a used AWD or RWD one. I dont know you obviously, I just feel for you and your commute, and dont see this ending well, ESPECIALLY considering you are talking about driving it "to 200k miles".
