M3 - when should we buy?

[AndrewH]

Hello, All.

My wife and I have agreed to purchase the M3. We’re ready to go. We don’t, however, need the car until the spring of 2020 – I won’t bore you with the reasons.

Perhaps a silly question but please humor me: should we buy now and claim the $1,875 tax credit?

Or wait for March and buy a 2020 model (better resale) but lose the credit?

Other variables – we want white paint which is currently free on the M3 ($2,000 on the Y). Makes us suspicious it might change. Clearly, we like the free AP. What's the level of risk these might change?

 

[whatthe2]

The longer you wait, the more you miss out on the fun of driving it. There will also be pricing, options changes, so if you wait, you could end up better, or worse. Enjoy it now and don't wait for the perfect time, as there is none.

 

[P85_DA]

If you don’t need now .. probably best to wait the tax credit isn’t enough to justify now ..given how much Tesla has been messing with pricing and the changes in tech ..2020 prob better idea

 

[ChrisH]

Hello, All.

My wife and I have agreed to purchase the M3. We’re ready to go. We don’t, however, need the car until the spring of 2020 – I won’t bore you with the reasons.

Perhaps a silly question but please humor me: should we buy now and claim the $1,875 tax credit?

Or wait for March and buy a 2020 model (better resale) but lose the credit?

Other variables – we want white paint which is currently free on the M3 ($2,000 on the Y). Makes us suspicious it might change. Clearly, we like the free AP. What's the level of risk these might change?

Are you looking at SR+ or AWD? Do you guys prefer the 3 over theY?

 

[turtlesz]

If you can turn in your current car/ sell and get the Tesla you can enjoy it today! If you really have 0 use for the car now I say wait. The car will almost certainly get cheaper as it has continued to do so. If you look at the pricing it has gotten cheaper on most trims compared to getting the tax credit. Basic AP became standard, PUP is essentially free for all but was a $5k upcharge before, AWD and battery upgrade prices have dropped, performance package has dropped the most in price. The sleeper P3 was being sold in limited quantities for under 50k 2 weeks ago, that included basic AP. My LR RWD cost more than that. I love the car but I would only buy a Tesla when you are ready to make use of it.

 

[TMThree]

With Tesla, the only correct answer on when to buy is this:

2-4 weeks after you just bought.

Inevitably, after you buy, you'll find out about a new feature or price drop, and you'll be all upset you didn't wait longer. This is normal. Pricing always changes, and you'll be just out of the return period so you can't do anything about it.

So either buy when you can, or wait till 2050, when the best Tesla is finally released. But wait 2 weeks later, cause then it will have even better batteries. Or 2 weeks later cause it now flies. Oh crap, the flying car price just dropped by 20%. Sucker.

 

[TMThree]

If you don’t need now .. probably best to wait the tax credit isn’t enough to justify now ..given how much Tesla has been messing with pricing and the changes in tech ..2020 prob better idea

re: fed rebate... Keep in mind Tesla is not dropping price on the low end models by much, so if he's going for a SR+, it may not help significantly. The low and high end models have very similar production cost, so margins aren't huge to play with on the low end.

If he's going for a higher end car, prices have dropped, but that's to up sell options and get higher average selling prices. You might as well go for performance since it's just 5k more than the AWD!

 

[Kleenerth3]

As you know, as soon as the $3750 left us on 7-1 you saw a big price adjustment and a lot of buyers got a little hurt by that. I think you need to weigh, in order, what's important to you. For me, it was getting rid of a big ICE truck that I needed when I was working. We planned ahead and got solar panels on the roof generating more than we need. If the car you drive is efficient, you can wait. If you have solar like us, you might think a lot sooner. You might wait and hope you can recoup the $1875 maybe if there's another price drop but what else won't be standard? 14-50 HPWC, HomeLink, charger adapters...
We all stand in a little different place from each other and, as you said, there's a lot of variables
If you want my honest opinion?
Buy now and stop delaying the inevitable!
Get another ICE vehicle off the planet.
Jump on the rebate cuz it's still a sure thing.
Quit denying yourself one of the most fun to drive, beautiful cars on or off the planet. The Model 3 isn't going to change any for a while. Note the S and the X. Only the milage is really going to affect the resale value. Whether it's a '19 or '20, not so much.
Oh yeah...
Drive one now and buy it tomorrow
You'll be addicted to being green!!!

Good luck with your buy, whenever that might be.

 

[ucmndd]

Pricing goes down over time on emerging technology and there’s no reason to believe now is a magical exception to that.

You’ll get more for your money next year. Only you can decide if having a car now is worth it.

 

[TMThree]

Pricing goes down over time on emerging technology and there’s no reason to believe now is a magical exception to that.

You’ll get more for your money next year. Only you can decide if having a car now is worth it.

Inflation also makes your dollar go less than it used to. Cars didn't used to average 35k a decade ago.

Also, I looked up this info and they mention the model 3 as a factor for pricing going up.

In the United States, the average selling price for a new light vehicle came to just under 35,250 U.S. dollars in 2018. New light vehicles were about 2.7 percent more expensive in 2018 than they were in 2017. The price increase was mainly driven by a shift away from small and medium-sized cars and towards bigger alternatives such as pickups and sport utility vehicles (SUVs), although the introduction and widespread demand of Tesla’s Model 3 may have been a contributing factor as well.

​

Also keep in mind that as other car companies join in the EV craze, if supplies get tight, prices may skyrocket as companies complete for resources. It's going to be all about who has made long term agreements and planned for expansion properly.

We see commonly see tech prices go up for things like ram and hard drives (due to cell phones demanding more hardware or burning factories preventing manufacturing). Given that an EV's largest cost is the battery, that means pricing can be skewed massively if something unexpected happens.

 

[Watts 4 Me]

I'm just hoping the model Y also drops in price like the M3.

 

[N54TT]

Hello, All.

My wife and I have agreed to purchase the M3. We’re ready to go. We don’t, however, need the car until the spring of 2020 – I won’t bore you with the reasons.

Perhaps a silly question but please humor me: should we buy now and claim the $1,875 tax credit?

Or wait for March and buy a 2020 model (better resale) but lose the credit?

Other variables – we want white paint which is currently free on the M3 ($2,000 on the Y). Makes us suspicious it might change. Clearly, we like the free AP. What's the level of risk these might change?

I would wait if you could...the new M3 is speculated to maybe have the same awd as the M5.

 

[Matt L]

Hello, All.

My wife and I have agreed to purchase the M3. We’re ready to go. We don’t, however, need the car until the spring of 2020 – I won’t bore you with the reasons.

Perhaps a silly question but please humor me: should we buy now and claim the $1,875 tax credit?

Or wait for March and buy a 2020 model (better resale) but lose the credit?

Other variables – we want white paint which is currently free on the M3 ($2,000 on the Y). Makes us suspicious it might change. Clearly, we like the free AP. What's the level of risk these might change?

A year ago.

Seriously, every day you wait is a day you will regret missing out on the best car you will ever own and drive.

 

[ucmndd]

We see commonly see tech prices go up for things like ram and hard drives (due to cell phones demanding more hardware or burning factories preventing manufacturing). Given that an EV's largest cost is the battery, that means pricing can be skewed massively if something unexpected happens.

Momentary demand spikes or supply interruptions are just that - momentary.

RAM and magnetic storage prices go one way over any significant period of time - down, precipitously.

It’s fun to think about far fetched hypotheticals, but I wouldn’t make a purchase decision based on them.

Buying a depreciating asset that you don’t need before you need it isn’t a financial decision, it’s an emotional one. Only the OP can make that decision.

 

[boriszima]

Wait, use that money in some high yield account to earn a little interest. Looking back at resent history, once tax credit goes down, Tesla adjusts prices as well in favor of consumer. But then If your current car consumes tons of gas and gas low MPG, then maybe worth now. I would wait to save on monthly payments and see what some other cool things Tesla adds on by spring 2020. Tesla not only upgrades software but also hardware like HW2.5 to Hw3.0, seats, and other quarks. But you will definitely enjoy it.

 

[timk225]

Hello, All.

My wife and I have agreed to purchase the M3. We’re ready to go. We don’t, however, need the car until the spring of 2020 – I won’t bore you with the reasons.

Other variables – we want white paint which is currently free on the M3 ($2,000 on the Y). Makes us suspicious it might change. Clearly, we like the free AP. What's the level of risk these might change?

No, please. Bore us with the reasons.

White paint may be free now and not free next year. And AP isn't free - it is added and the price was raised. It's a forced "option". Just like when I had to spend an extra $14,000 to get my 3 RWD LR last May because the big battery, glass roof, and fancy interior was the only way to get it. I got lucky and grabbed Base AP for $2000 in the first week of March this year when Tesla had their sale going on.

But buy yours now and get the tax credit, no sense in waiting. Now might be a better deal, who knows what Tesla will do with prices and options by next spring.

 

[animorph]

Normally I'd advise to buy now. Especially after a price decrease. But Spring 2020 is a long way away. That future Model 3 will be a little better. It may be a little cheaper, even without the tax credit. Grabbing the credit has been a waste of dollars so far. So you should be better off waiting. The downside is you give up a year of driving a great car. Up to you.

 

[ngogas]

Life is short. If you can afford it do it now. Enjoy before you can’t.

 

[verystandard]

Hello, All.

My wife and I have agreed to purchase the M3. We’re ready to go. We don’t, however, need the car until the spring of 2020 – I won’t bore you with the reasons.

Perhaps a silly question but please humor me: should we buy now and claim the $1,875 tax credit?

Or wait for March and buy a 2020 model (better resale) but lose the credit?

Other variables – we want white paint which is currently free on the M3 ($2,000 on the Y). Makes us suspicious it might change. Clearly, we like the free AP. What's the level of risk these might change?

Are you plan to use the car as a weekender or daily driver? You mentioned that you don't need the car until spring of 2020 is it because you are driving a car now and you plan to lease return/sell the car by then?

Truth is, the longer you wait, the better deal you will get. (Either the price or better equipment, technology, even possibility is some minor changes) Also by then the second hand market for model 3 will be much more mature and you will have a lot more choices.

Only thing that i can think of buying a car now is "life is short enjoy the car right now".

 

[japhule]

I would invest that money and wait until you're ready. Who knows what updates to the model 3 will have by Spring 2020. Elon has mentioned, for example, that future motors will last 500k-1million miles which would be great for the eventual robotaxi usage.