Major 2021 Model X refresh pending [Update: Unveiled January 27, 2021]

[jcmiles]

I'm amazed Tesla has the amount of control over data leaks that they do.
My 2009 Mazda5 3-row minivan is hanging in there but needs all new struts. I don't want to put any more money into it so I need to buy a new car around March 2021.
I was hoping to wait until 2022 when the VW ID7 Kombi and Rivian R1S arrive so I could choose between the 3 but its not going to happen.
I am happy to support Tesla though as I think they're an amazing company. I just want a horizontal screen and fold-flat 6-seat option if possible by March . . .

 

[msm859]

Isn't it the same in the U.S.: before you can deduct any Dollar from your tax relevant income, it has TO BE SPENT?

So different tax systems/handlings allow for more or less (all / any) of your expenses to be deductible. But you've got to SPEND.

In the US certain vehicles i.e. trucks and SUV's with a GVWR over 6000 lbs are eligible for "bonus depreciation" which basically means you can depreciate the full costs in the first year (based on percentage of business use). So if you buy a Tesla X for $100k and use it 80% for business, that year you can deduct $80k off your gross income.

 

[46&2]

deduct $80k off your gross income

Yes, that means you won't pay tax on these 80k. That is nice. But you spent 100k for a car.

This makes the car virtually cheaper - but that's all. You still spent, in fact. Without the car, you would pay tax for an income of 80k, and have the rest in you wallet. Or another car.

 

[DoctorVenkman]

Yes, that means you won't pay tax on these 80k. That is nice. But you spent 100k for a car.

This makes the car virtually cheaper - but that's all. You still spent, in fact. Without the car, you would pay tax for an income of 80k, and have the rest in you wallet. Or another car.

I don't think anyone is debating that it still costs money to buy the car... the point is that a $80k deduction can reduce your tax liability by like $30-40k depending on your circumstances. So in effect the $100k model X costs the same as a $60k Model Y with no depreciation deduction.

 

[46&2]

Yes that's what I understand now: if another, nominally cheaper car won't entitle you to such a deduction, this makes the X cheaper. Got it! An effect of the on/off price barrier

 

[JamesBrown]

I don't think anyone is debating that it still costs money to buy the car... the point is that a $80k deduction can reduce your tax liability by like $30-40k depending on your circumstances. So in effect the $100k model X costs the same as a $60k Model Y with no depreciation deduction.

I am not sure there are any scenarios where it could reach 40k reduction in tax liability, it maxes out around 36k for companies with profits over 600k. More realistic reduction is around 28-30k for incomes in the 150-200k range. Impossible to assign and exact value as everyone's situation is vastly different. Either way, your general point is 100% correct. It can be very beneficial to certain people.

 

[DIL]

My MS lease gets returned on March 20th, to be replaced by a Model X. Placing order on January 10th. Will I hit the refresh jackpot?

 

[46&2]

Cool anyway to get the "upgrade to a X Performance" for free when being about to buy a car in the range for 30k less...

 

[Jetpad]

If it turns out this really is a Model X refresh this time, as soon as it is officially announced, I think there will be a big backlog of orders placed. What establishes the position in line? Is it when you make the initial reservation or when you've completed all of the online paperwork? I'm wondering if doing a reservation now helps any if I'm still going to wait until I know for sure that refresh is happening to complete all the paperwork.

 

[skybluecgreen]

If it turns out this really is a Model X refresh this time, as soon as it is officially announced, I think there will be a big backlog of orders placed. What establishes the position in line? Is it when you make the initial reservation or when you've completed all of the online paperwork? I'm wondering if doing a reservation now helps any if I'm still going to wait until I know for sure that refresh is happening to complete all the paperwork.

I ordered Dec 7. From my order page:

'Estimated Delivery: February 15 - March 15

We will reach out to you to schedule your delivery date. Delivery time frame is based on order date, profile submission, delivery location and vehicle configuration.'

So order date does matter but it is not the only factor. Your risk in ordering now is a $100 non-refundable deposit. With that you establish the order date, lock in the price for the car and FSD. In Europe the X price increased for the March delivery batch: Tesla increases prices on next EU batch of Model S and Model X —sparking refresh rumors - Electrek

A November reservation holder in the UK said he will still get the old price:
Model X Next Refresh

 

[msm859]

I am not sure there are any scenarios where it could reach 40k reduction in tax liability, it maxes out around 36k for companies with profits over 600k. More realistic reduction is around 28-30k for incomes in the 150-200k range. Impossible to assign and exact value as everyone's situation is vastly different. Either way, your general point is 100% correct. It can be very beneficial to certain people.

Perhaps not 50%. but if you are self employed you can easily save 15% fica + 22% fed + 8% state = 45% Of course you have average and marginal tax rates which complicates the true savings somewhat.

 

[Wilber]

Kim Java just published a youtube video on this issue. She thinks it is likely the refresh means 4680 batteries and that the FWDs are replaced by normal doors. and she explains why Tesla would do that. makes sense to me:

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Kim Java just published a youtube video on this issue. She thinks it is likely the refresh means 4680 batteries and that the FWDs are replaced by normal doors. and she explains why Tesla would do that. makes sense to me:

I just farted. It had an opinion too

 

[wdolson]

Kim Java just published a youtube video on this issue. She thinks it is likely the refresh means 4680 batteries and that the FWDs are replaced by normal doors. and she explains why Tesla would do that. makes sense to me:

The production of 4680s is not enough for any production vehicle right now and I strongly doubt the standard S and X will get them until they show up in a number of other vehicles first. Replacing the FWDs with standard doors is such a big change they would not be able to hide it. For one thing it would probably require a new series of crash tests. The entire structure of the car would have to change.

I would not be surprised if there are some minor changes to the S/X when production resumes, but the shutdown is much more inline with maintenance on the production line than a major refresh.

 

[henderrj]

The production of 4680s is not enough for any production vehicle right now and I strongly doubt the standard S and X will get them until they show up in a number of other vehicles first. Replacing the FWDs with standard doors is such a big change they would not be able to hide it. For one thing it would probably require a new series of crash tests. The entire structure of the car would have to change.

I would not be surprised if there are some minor changes to the S/X when production resumes, but the shutdown is much more inline with maintenance on the production line than a major refresh.

Definitely agree. I think almost all the changes will be internal. Probably to the interior of the car, and to the chemistry of the cells. (I see no need to change the exterior, body shape.) I do think we'll see a decent increase in range, but because they've improved the chemistry as they've been saying all along.

I do believe the possibility exists that the battery pack shape might change to some degree, not so much because they'll use the new cells as because they'll make a pack shape that can use them once the supply is available. I think they're going to offer both for some time once they do get to the new structure. There's really nothing wrong with the 18650 shape, just not as good as the new. No point in throwing away all that equipment that they make them with! Of course, they could just drop back to using them for the power packs and power walls.

I think it's a pretty long shot for them to use the new cell size, but I'd sure like to see it! Just not that much of a betting man.

 

[46&2]

She thinks it is likely the refresh means 4680 batteries and that the FWDs are replaced by normal doors.

And *I think* she missed the additional changes Tesla makes by increasing the towing capacity so the Model X can tow the heavier hanger needed to carry the free SpaceShip that comes with every Model X delivered between March 42nd and Feb. -69 * e ^ (i pi) th.

 

[TLLMRRJ]

What if they kept the FWDs, but made them manual instead of automatic? Then you (and Tesla) would get most of the good without the bad.

 

[seuzi_ev]

I heard the same, the cancelation of model x form my sales ten days ago with tag "rumor". Driving the second x since dec. 29th and I'm happy with,

 

[tonoboon]

If no FWDs , What different from Model Y ?

 

[JamesBrown]

If no FWDs , What different from Model Y ?

Better interior and can fit 7 people comfortably.