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March 15th Model Y Reveal

Discussion in 'Model Y' started by Loxoli, Mar 2, 2019.

  1. Loxoli

    Loxoli New Member

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    Since we are less than 2 weeks out from Musk’s suggested March 15th unveil date for the Model Y, is it safe to say that this is not going forward?

    We’ve had no word on this for a while, although Tesla is no stranger to surprises. What do you think?
     
  2. Plan B

    Plan B Active Member

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    It going to look like a small X, just like the 3 looks like a small S.
     
  3. NeverFollow

    NeverFollow Active Member

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    I imagine that some people should receive invitations in advance,
    so they will be able to make flight and hotel reservations with enough notice.
     
  4. commasign

    commasign TeslaAdviceBlog.com

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    No Model Y unveiling anytime soon. Tesla is focused on selling Model 3 at high volumes. Unveiling Model Y now would only hurt sales of Model 3. More likely it’ll be unveiled just shortly before production begins.
     
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  5. 11thIndian

    11thIndian Member

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    I’m always curious why people keep positing this theory.

    If you need an SUV you’re not going to buy a sedan just cause you can get it now; and if you don’t need an SUV you’re not going to wait to buy something you don’t want once it unveiled.

    The Osborne Effect doesn’t apply here. It only applies when the product being unveiled replaces the one the company is currently selling (and is substantively better in some way). Mid-sized SUVs and Sedans are two very distinct segments of the auto market.

    Ultimately, Tesla is going to be selling both these vehicles within less than a year, and their relative demand is going to be what it is. Pushing the unveil out by a couple of months doesn’t gain them anything. Especially now that the most affordable Model 3 is out the door and Fremont is going to be at max capacity pumping them out for the foreseeable future.
     
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  6. commasign

    commasign TeslaAdviceBlog.com

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    Three of my most recent referrals actually did buy a Model 3 even though they actually wanted a Model Y. Combination of the full tax credit as well extensive demonstration of the storage space and excellent visibility convinced them that Model 3 was "good enough" for their needs. But they all definitely plan to get a Model Y too.
     
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  7. 11thIndian

    11thIndian Member

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    So in a best case scenario Tesla sells two cars to customers. Medium case someone buys a Model 3 and then sells it to buy a Model Y in a year or so. In a worst case a small percentage differ a purchase for a year while other customers (either the giant backlog of reservations who've been waiting for the Base M3 or new customers who are seeing them everywhere now and find out you can get one for $35K with at least $2K in incentives thru the rest of this year) take their place.

    I'm still not seeing a big motivation to hold off on the unveil for any substantive period of time. If they're going to start manufacturing early next year- then the longer they wait the more chance a prototype image will leak while they tool up. Tesla loves to "surprise and delight" like Apple. They won't take the chance of waiting too long an having the unveil blown.
     
  8. outdoors

    outdoors Not so well known

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    tin can see ^
    Almost me exactly to a T. Needed a car for a child in couple years. Why not just drive a 3 now. Safe car, goes about as far as my S. Ordering a Y for just hopefully perfect timing with maybe a bit more range.

    From the tire kickers I know and talk to. The Honda and Toyota Corolla owners. They really want this 35k car. Trade up in car brand and image for sure. Just wonder if they are going to bite. Maybe a little turbulence with how this was all done in the last couple days. I think we will know pretty quickly how the consumer took the news.
     
  9. commasign

    commasign TeslaAdviceBlog.com

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    True. Not opposed to an early unveil, but just seems like they are razor focused on cutting costs and ramping production for Model 3. Also, Tesla has never been on time with volume production of new cars. Would assume at least an additional 6-12 months on top of Tesla’s guidance on Model Y production.
     
  10. 11thIndian

    11thIndian Member

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    At least as it relates to the Model 3, they started production (as limited as it was) when they said they were going to start- the ramp was just longer and slower. Model 3 was unveiled March 31 2016. They started production (as announced) June 2017. They reached 5000/wk production run rate by June of 2018, about 6 months later than they wanted.

    We'll have to see when they say they're actually going to start production at the unveil, but considering the 76% parts crossover, I can't help but be optimistic that the scale of the S Curve will be tighter. I wouldn't quite call this a Model 3 variant, but it's not far off.

    And honestly I'm just being selfish. Shortly before the Model 3 was released was when I first starting paying attention to Teslas. At that point the Model Y was already being rumoured, and I knew it was the one I wanted to wait for to replace our family SUV. We're SO CLOSE now- over 3 years later, I'm just really jazzed to finally see this thing.

    The only other thing to take into account is that there's way more EV SUV competition coming up this year- Tesla unveiling the Model Y, allowing reservations and giving a production timeline, could well keep customers from buying a Kona, Niro, or competing mid-market SUV coming out this year.
     
  11. commasign

    commasign TeslaAdviceBlog.com

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    Well, I was wrong. Model Y unveiling March 14!
     
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  12. TheLocNar

    TheLocNar Member

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  13. 11thIndian

    11thIndian Member

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    I'm not gonna say it... Cause I'm just so happy!

    I think this really will benefit everyone. After the 14th people can make an informed choice on whether to wait or not. Those who choose to wait for the Model Y free up production space for those who really want a Model 3.

    Gosh darn it I CAN'T WAIT!
     
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  14. deonb

    deonb Supporting Member

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    Wait, didn't you just lost the $35000 Model 3 bet as well this week? (Had to donate?). This is not your week - stay away from Casinos :).
     
  15. NeverFollow

    NeverFollow Active Member

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    TESLA - S E X Y .jpg
     
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  16. deonb

    deonb Supporting Member

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    It will be 10% bigger than the Model 3:

    upload_2019-3-3_14-44-52.png
     
  17. commasign

    commasign TeslaAdviceBlog.com

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    Lol, I actually won that bet. Wasn’t as sure about Model Y so probably would not have bet on the unveiling.
     
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  18. ucmndd

    ucmndd Active Member

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    Nope, that was me. Commasign was the big winner. ;)
     
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  19. spurs10

    spurs10 Member

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    No way I am there early adapter ever again after all the price drop with model 3
     
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  20. TheLocNar

    TheLocNar Member

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    Wonder if there will be a performance Model Y. That would be pretty sweet!
     

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