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Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 30, 2017.

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  1. SunCatcher

    SunCatcher Member

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    Watch out... VW is coming!
    VW= Vapor Ware... Virtual Wagon...

    Not... Very Worried

    As Elon is fond of saying; "Powerpoint Presentations are a lot easier to produce than cars".
     
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  2. montefuego

    montefuego Member

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    Thanks for the welcome! Appreciate the thoughts. Nonetheless, it seems to me that the Jag is somewhat of a threat to the Model X. As for the 'S', my previous car, before my Model S, was a Boxster, and I think when Porsche's Mission E comes out, it will be a formidable threat to the Model S, assuming it is not upgraded before then. The 15 min charging--does it reduce the life of the battery, or did the Europeans figure out a way to avoid that--is a big deal if you go on long road trips. One 40 min stop is fine--eat lunch-- but when the second one rolls around that is a real downer. And the ergonomics and 'sexiness' of the Porsche is not to be underestimated. I think the Model S was based on the Panamera anyway. This is Porsche's reply.
    The disappointing ramp seems for sure the bigger, more immediate issue. Where you guys get info on that, is there another site I can look at?
    Anyway, all the best to you and I'm glad to be the neophyte in the community.
     
  3. Esme Es Mejor

    Esme Es Mejor Member

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    I think the cars at the Geneva Show aren’t competing for the 1% of the market that has already gone electric, they’re competing for the 99% that will go electric over the next 5-15 years.
     
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  4. montefuego

    montefuego Member

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    Well said, thank you!
     
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  5. Richgoogol

    Richgoogol Member

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    Tsk tsk tsk, haven't you heard? All the Tesla Kills are awaiting for the perfect opportunity to strike. They have millions of cars built already and ready to be delivered to "potential" customers. It's just hidden in their warehouses at the moment. Just when Tesla is able to increase their production exponentially, these Tesla Killers will flood the market with these fully assembled, overachieving cars and completely obliterate Tesla in blind sight. Don't you ever doubt their magical powers! And please don't embarrass yourself again by being a Tesla shareholder without knowing these "facts". :rolleyes:
     
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  6. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    One thing that is positive about Porsche, Jag and other high end getting into the EV race is that it will solidify the future of EVs as the most desirable cars to own and drive. Tesla has already transformed the image of an EV from a glorified golf cart to high performance. But when there is serious EV competition in the high end space, all ICE vehicles will begin to lose their luster. That's the demand side.

    On the supply side, the supply chain for EVs will also heat up. Auto parts makers will put more effort into competing in the EV market. This will benefit Tesla as the will have more opportunities to outsource parts they're not interested in making internally. This will free up Tesla to focus design and manufacturing resource where they can add the most value. This could improve scale up of production, enabling Tesla to bring more models to market quicker.
     
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  7. jackbowers

    jackbowers Jack Bowers

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    A likely result of the high-tension tug-of-war between the longs and the shorts. Tesla is efficiently priced due to its large short-position, but the S&P Index Committee has refused to add it to the S&P 500, so it lacks the liquidity that most S&P 500 stocks have. Which means it can be pushed around a lot on seemingly minor news and rumors. Interestingly, any strategy that tries to profit from this will tend to boost liquidity, making the stock more stable.
     
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  8. elasalle

    elasalle driVIN(188xx) it !!

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    Max Pain for tomorrow is 340 ..
     
  9. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    How did Jeff Bezos accumulate $130B ?

    And Bill Gates $100B?
     
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  10. SteveG3

    SteveG3 Active Member

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    fwiw, montefuego, I shared my thoughts on this topic a week ago today on the general thread (see below). I agree with you that some of the downward move in the stock might be a reaction to what's been shown by other automakers the past week, but, if so, a not very informed and irrational reaction.

    "When it comes to the idea of "competition," whether Jaguar, GM, BMW, etc., it makes an enormous difference to recognize that

    - other automakers reaching the point that they produce EVs that are as attractive as Teslas (which we are nearing, at least on some metrics)

    is not the same as

    - other automakers producing EVs as attractive as Teslas at volumes that impact Tesla's blistering growth in unit sales and revenues.

    The latter, I don't see happening for at least a decade.

    This is not to say smaller portions of the market, i.e., where the Model S sits, wont see growth curtailed by other automakers vehicles sooner... but, overall Tesla unit and revenue growth has a tremendous amount of runway before what other automakers do will make a difference. Outside of China, I'm very confident under 25% of new vehicles sold in 2025 will be 200+ mile range EVs. The incumbents would rather sell ICE, and it looks like they'll broaden that to selling plenty of ICE plug-in hybrids over time as laws give them no choice, but, near universally, the last thing they want to do is open wide the spigot of long range pure EVs. The incumbents effective ability to act as if an oligopoly and not supply the product that consumers will prefer surely within a few years, is one of Tesla's massive moats."


    General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable
     
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  11. MTL_HABS1909

    MTL_HABS1909 Member

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    If anything, seeing the specs IPace has with a 90kwh battery just made me that much more confident that Tesla is way ahead of the “competition”.
     
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  12. Richgoogol

    Richgoogol Member

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    tsla-8k_20180307.htm
    This is causing the SP to drop over 1.5% at one point after market. Not sure how this news will be taken tomorrow. No reasons given and no replacements being announced whatsoever.
     
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  13. Reciprocity

    Reciprocity Active Member

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    Shorts love that kind of ambiguity. Apparently, they made a role for this guy so maybe he wasnt all that necessary to replace. Maybe accounting will now report to Elon.
     
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  14. Curt Renz

    Curt Renz Active Member

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    You're probably right. The position was apparently created while SolarCity was being acquired and Tesla needed someone with experience in the accounting for solar panel installations. Such expertise may no longer be needed. Perhaps Branderiz found working under the CFO or Elon to be difficult, or he's seeking a more high profile position in the solar industry.

    After-hours traders often react impulsively to what is really much ado about nothing.
     
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  15. jschwefel

    jschwefel VIN#1249

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    I have to admit that the Jaguar iPace and Porsche MissionE vehicles look awesome, and I expect them to be production constrained for some time. Once these cars hit the market though, how will Jaguar or Porsche ever sell another ICE vehicle? I have to believe only an ill or mis-informed person would opt to buy an ICE Porsche if the MissionE is available. And if they have to wait, they might as well buy a Tesla. This will be quite the dilemma for ICE manufacturers who still believe EVs are a niche market and have limited ability to ramp production. I’m anxious to see how all this plays out, but I’d rather be in on team TSLA for this next round.
     
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  16. Skryll

    Skryll Member

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    Three reasons gearheads will like non-electric:
    - lighter and thus nimble around corners
    - more manual control of raw power, utilizing shifting skills etc instead of having the computer figure it out for you
    - smells, sounds and vibrations they love

    Not for me at all but the market will be there.
     
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  17. kbM3

    kbM3 Member

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    Elon or JB said that 350 kW charging at present has too many trade offs. I don’t know more detail than that. I would wait for judgment til Porsche releases full specs, base features, option pricing...

    I’m not sure about that. My impression is that at least some of the traditional auto manufacturers all see the electric vehicle market as a niche one in which they need to compete.

    GM just thought let’s come out with the first long range affordable EV to grab our slice of the EV market when they released the Bolt. Jaguar has gone to great lengths to compare themselves to the model X.

    I really think their hopes and dreams are that the transition to full EV will be very slow.
     
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  18. nesgoomba

    nesgoomba Member

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    200-250 is a possibility here. I will wait until then to slam it. At this time, there are too many bad news for Tesla.
     
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  19. ggies07

    ggies07 Supporting Member

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    Well if Tesla doesnt figure out how to get this model 3 ramp-up going, then they wont need to worry.....
     
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  20. bdy0627

    bdy0627 Active Member

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    Maybe you should short it to profit from the huge drop you are expecting?
     
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