Market politics

[wdolson]

Surprised you think Harris has shown to be the best when polls do not reflect that, not did her debate performance. Also surprised you still think Biden a good choice with all his displayed weakness, who is also slipping in the polls.

I'm talking about who I think would do the best job, not who would be most electable or anything like that.

One primary poll showed a dead heat between Biden, Warren, and Sanders. Monmouth is a high quality poll (A+ rating by fivethirtyeight), but it's still an outlier. He leads in all other recent primary polls. But the primary polls are not a good measure of electability. They are just measures of who the Democrats like and say nothing about whether independents will go for them or if they can draw any Republicans.

Just about every national poll of possible head to head match ups Biden gets the biggest win. In individual state polls Biden gets the largest margin in every state that counts. Whether you can get 51% or 90% in California is irrelevant, polls show Biden can win in Ohio and nobody else can. That may change, but that's the reality today.

The most active Democrats tend to be much more liberal than even the core of Democratic voters and definitely more liberal than the country as a whole. If the Democrats want to take as much of the center as possible, they need to nominate a moderate. That's why Biden polls the best. He's not scary to the center-right and a number of the other Democrats are.

 

[Intl Professor]

Thomas Edsall has an extraordinarily long, even for him, essay which gets interesting toward the end when he points to an objective survey about people’s motivations

Opinion | We Aren’t Seeing White Support for Trump for What It Is

Here’s a piece of what I found most interesting.

“Christopher D. DeSante, a political scientist at Indiana University, and Candis W. Smith, a political scientist at Penn State, have explored the use of new tools to measure racial attitudes. In “How Racial Empathy Moderates White Identity and Racial Resentment” and “Fear, Institutionalized Racism, and Empathy: The Underlying Dimensions of Whites’ Racial Attitudes,” the authors have come up with what they call a “four-Item FIRE Scale” with FIRE an acronym for Fear, Institutionalized Racism and Empathy.”


And then he concludes, in part:

“This may well prove to be a base-vs.-base election, but even so the outcome may lie in the hands of the substantial proportion of the electorate that is undecided — 7 percent according to Pew. And if Democrats want to give themselves the best shot of getting Trump out of the White House, it is toward these voters that they must make concerted efforts at pragmatic diplomacy and persuasion — and show a new level of empathy.”

 

[Intl Professor]

I'm talking about who I think would do the best job, not who would be most electable or anything like that.

One primary poll showed a dead heat between Biden, Warren, and Sanders. Monmouth is a high quality poll (A+ rating by fivethirtyeight), but it's still an outlier. He leads in all other recent primary polls. But the primary polls are not a good measure of electability. They are just measures of who the Democrats like and say nothing about whether independents will go for them or if they can draw any Republicans.

Just about every national poll of possible head to head match ups Biden gets the biggest win. In individual state polls Biden gets the largest margin in every state that counts. Whether you can get 51% or 90% in California is irrelevant, polls show Biden can win in Ohio and nobody else can. That may change, but that's the reality today.

The most active Democrats tend to be much more liberal than even the core of Democratic voters and definitely more liberal than the country as a whole. If the Democrats want to take as much of the center as possible, they need to nominate a moderate. That's why Biden polls the best. He's not scary to the center-right and a number of the other Democrats are.

The top of the ticket must be a woman. Female voters are riled the most. Biden voters not so much. It's early, too early by far, but Warren is showing she is a debater and an organizer. She has created an executive agency, got it approved in the legislature, and run it for a time, so she even has executive experience. Her forte, almost her profession, has been building and defending the middle class. She has tons of energy and has thought about what to do and how to do it more than any other candidate. Wait until we are closer to Iowa and New Hampshire. She has one negative: Pocahontas. I'm sure she'll get the Native American vote. That is just the monkey in the cage throwing excrement.

In debating Trump she could get us all laughing as she proves Darwin's critics so wrong. Can't imagine anyone more stressful for Trump than being ridiculed by a cute, cuddly, grandma Harvard Law professor. He might have a heart attack on stage! Too many McDonalds, named after him, of course.

 

[JRP3]

If the Democrats want to take as much of the center as possible, they need to nominate a moderate. That's why Biden polls the best. He's not scary to the center-right and a number of the other Democrats are.

Have you learned nothing from the 2016 results? Center doesn't work.

 

[JRP3]

Bernie Sanders:

Has been beating Trump in polls for 3+ years

Most popular among young voters

Most popular with independents

Draws massive crowds wherever he goes

Immune to "Crooked Hillary" type attacks

Is the obvious "electability" candidate

John Iadarola on Twitter

 

[Darkfox021]

Have you learned nothing from the 2016 results? Center doesn't work.

My god, I hope most Democrats don't share this vision. You have to nominate someone capable of winning, another 4 years will be devastating.

Hillary didn't lose because she was center, she lost because she is Clinton.

 

[JRP3]

Enough people wanted change that we ended up with Trump. People still want change. Corporate Dems like Biden don't offer that.

 

[JRP3]

“America will never be a socialist country," President Trump vowed in his last State of the Union address, a line he has repeated to crowds at his rallies. The sentiment has been echoed by other conservative politicians, who often frame the choice as “socialism vs. freedom.”

That old-fashioned red-baiting approach, familiar to those of us who lived through the Cold War, doesn’t seem to be working these days. A Harris poll from earlier this year found 40% of Americans claiming they would rather live in a socialist country than a capitalist one, which echoes a Pew poll in which 42% of Americans (including 65% of black Americans and 52% of Latinos) said they have a “positive impression” of socialism.

The level of interest in socialism represents deep skepticism that our current, consumer-fueled capitalist system is equipped to tackle big questions like climate change, crumbling roads and bridges, inadequate health care and the stunning levels of economic inequality that have left so many families homeless, broke, bankrupt or under-employed.

Let’s talk about socialism: The term has largely lost its power to scare, and that’s a good thing

 

[Intl Professor]

The charitable assessment of Biden is he is not a leader, he’s a follower. He reflected well the mainstream consensus of that time. But times change so the record is contradictory. He’s fumbling now by being forced to change with no compelling original thinking for what should become.

It is amusing but tragic to see how the powerful are so frightened of Sanders/Warren and the Squad. They are controversial because they touch what needed to be touched and has been for decades in the case of Sanders. They are controversial because they want meaningful change. That is a risk which worries establishment Dems. Change might happen, oh dear, what about the money?, many worry. Get over it. The fear of the establishment is confirmation of the need for more change in the right direction, that’s why they are establishment.

Continuing on the present course makes climate change harder—criminal charges for the likes of Kochs, —mandatory sale and confiscation of all assault weapons,—war with Canada over white immigration quotas, yada, yada. Change now or pitchforks soon.

What will eventually shake out with Democrats in power will roughly be within the consensus of the voters (about 70%), and with the general public maybe an even higher percentage. There will always be quibbling over the specifics. Get over them. What is it Dylan said…? So change into a progressive future. What's so wrong about progress when we face death or extinction from many causes?

If you want to be conservative, think Iroquois.

 

[Unpilot]

How anyone can be a "undecided voter is very perplexing to me. Sure one can be independent but undecided??
I am talking about trump of course. To not have decided he is unfit for office is something I am not able to understand.

His supporters will not waver I suppose. So there is what...30-35 percent. But how does he pull anymore from the other 70%?

 

[wdolson]

The top of the ticket must be a woman. Female voters are riled the most. Biden voters not so much. It's early, too early by far, but Warren is showing she is a debater and an organizer. She has created an executive agency, got it approved in the legislature, and run it for a time, so she even has executive experience. Her forte, almost her profession, has been building and defending the middle class. She has tons of energy and has thought about what to do and how to do it more than any other candidate. Wait until we are closer to Iowa and New Hampshire. She has one negative: Pocahontas. I'm sure she'll get the Native American vote. That is just the monkey in the cage throwing excrement.

In debating Trump she could get us all laughing as she proves Darwin's critics so wrong. Can't imagine anyone more stressful for Trump than being ridiculed by a cute, cuddly, grandma Harvard Law professor. He might have a heart attack on stage! Too many McDonalds, named after him, of course.

You don't need to motivate people to vote who are already motivated, you need to motivate people who aren't. Women are motivated to vote against Trump, but those who aren't motivated to vote for anyone right now are more male than female. A fair number of those people might be drawn in by a good woman candidate, but the wrong female candidate will drive them off. On the other hand a larger percentage of women will crawl over broken glass to vote for anyone who isn't Trump.

Don't make Trump's mistake and double down on the base. Expand to a larger audience.

Have you learned nothing from the 2016 results? Center doesn't work.

Than why did Bill Clinton win in 1992 and 1996 and Obama win in 2008 and 2012. Obama and Hillary Clinton were so close on policy they could have written the other's campaign material. History has quite a few candidates from further from the center or people who were successfully cast as being extremists who lost by large margins: Goldwater, Humphrey, McGovern, and Dukakis come to mind.

Hillary didn't lose because she was a centrist. She lost because she was Hillary. A large percentage of men find Hillary Clinton annoying and that drove enough to not vote or vote third party in 2016. Warren can get a bit school teacher sometimes and I think that turns some people off.

How anyone can be a "undecided voter is very perplexing to me. Sure one can be independent but undecided??
I am talking about trump of course. To not have decided he is unfit for office is something I am not able to understand.

His supporters will not waver I suppose. So there is what...30-35 percent. But how does he pull anymore from the other 70%?

I think most of the undecideds have come to the conclusion they really don't like Trump, but they are waiting and seeing what comes out of the Democratic primaries. They don't want to see an extreme right wing nut job replaced by who they think could be an extreme left wing nut job. Now nobody on the Democratic side is as nutty as Trump, but to right leaning voters who don't like Trump but are still infected with memes of the Democrats come from the dark side are hinky.

Trump has a some life long Republicans thinking about abandoning an organization they have been thoughtless followers of for decades. They have been indoctrinated for the last 2 1/2 decades with ideas that Democrats don't represent different ideas but they are evil monsters who will destroy the country if they get power. If they are thinking of jumping ship, they are in a state of cognitive dissonance. They don't quite believe the memes anymore, but they still color their thinking.

To these people a well known centrist is going to be more attractive than an unknown or someone who is talking about some pretty extreme changes to the system.

I have company from around the county here this week. One lives in Florida, another in Alabama, and a third in Eastern Washington. All are 100% opposed to Trump and all are life long left of center to extreme lefties, but their stories about politics where they live are very different from here in the Portland area. People are not comfortable with Trump in a lot of these areas, but they aren't all that enthused by ideas touted by Warren and Sanders.

The friend from Alabama drives a truck for Walmart and the changes to the per diem rates for truck drivers under the new tax law was terrible on their taxes. My friend paid $10K more in taxes for 2018 than usual. His fellow truck drivers are very upset and a lot have quit or retired early (though there are other reasons driving them out too). But truck drivers are often conservative (my friend keeps his mouth shut about politics at work) and they are conflicted about the Republicans right now.

 

[winfield100]

Having lived through all of them
“History has quite a few candidates from further from the center or people who were successfully cast as being extremists who lost by large margins: Goldwater, Humphrey, McGovern, and Dukakis come to mind.”

Goldwater was a “nuke ‘em till they glow” regarding Vietnam extreme hawk. 10, 9, 8, ... daisy ad terrified us. (Whether or not it happened. TW3 (that was the week that was)
LBJ was sneaky.

 

[JRP3]

Than why did Bill Clinton win in 1992 and 1996 and Obama win in 2008 and 2012.

It's not 1992/2012 any longer. A lot of people were angry that Obama ended up being much more establishment than expected. People who were against Obama care are now clamoring for Medicare for all. Times have changed.

 

[wdolson]

Having lived through all of them
“History has quite a few candidates from further from the center or people who were successfully cast as being extremists who lost by large margins: Goldwater, Humphrey, McGovern, and Dukakis come to mind.”

Goldwater was a “nuke ‘em till they glow” regarding Vietnam extreme hawk. 10, 9, 8, ... daisy ad terrified us. (Whether or not it happened. TW3 (that was the week that was)
LBJ was sneaky.

LBJ was already in a strong position because Goldwater was more extreme right than Eisenhower was, but the daisy commercial put the last nail in the coffin. Lee Atwater and then Carl Rove did good jobs of casting every Democrat they faced as a left wing nut job or just plain silly. Some unforced errors like Dukakis in the tank didn't help.

It's not 1992/2012 any longer. A lot of people were angry that Obama ended up being much more establishment than expected. People who were against Obama care are now clamoring for Medicare for all. Times have changed.

The vocal Democrats right now are far left, but the party as a whole is much more centrist. The Independents are mostly independent because they don't like either party. Some are to the left of the Democratic party, but the bulk are centrists who think the Democrats are too far left.

The Democratic Electorate on Twitter Is Not the Actual Democratic Electorate
Opinion | What Happened to America’s Political Center of Gravity?

If the Democrats believe the Twitter Democrats speak for everyone opposed to Trump, they will either lose or their victory will be very short lived.

I just finished reading the sequel to American Nations by Colin Woodward. It's called American Character and was written in 2015. It focuses on the way the different American cultures have interacted throughout American history. He has a prescription in the last chapter for how one party could dominate American politics. He doubted the Republicans could do it because they were too calcified by the time he wrote the book, but he said if the Democrats realize what the interior west and Appalachia want and modify their message to appeal to that and the coasts, they could control both houses of Congress, most state legislatures, and the presidency for a generation or more.

What holds together the Republican coalition is libertarianism. The Deep South, Appalachia, and the interior West are all libertarian, but different types. The Deep South has conned Appalachia and the interior West into thinking they believe the same thing, but they don't. The Deep South believes in economic libertarianism with a very weak federal government and socially they are very authoritarian. The interior West are social libertarians, but are not so anti-government, but don't like too much government interference. Appalachia is very independent and don't like anyone telling them what to do. They are a bit opinionated about what they believe socially, but at the end of the day they would be happy with social libertarianism if nobody was telling them how to think.

Over the last couple of decades the Democrats have turned a couple of interior West states blue: Colorado and Nevada. New Mexico is part interior West, but it's heavy El Norte (old northern Mexico culture) dominates and they are solidly in the Democrat's camp. Montana and Arizona are wavering now.

The more moderate Democrats are pretty much in the interior West's values now, they just need to sell it right. If the Democratic coalition can win over a bigger chunk of the interior West and keep it as well as keep the existing coalition, they have a lock on the Senate and the House until they go too far and part of the coalition is wooed away.

The bulk of the American public is slow to accept big changes. Especially now. The change the left wing of the Democratic party needs to be slow walked or the center will bolt back to whatever the right becomes after Trump. Moving to the left is needed right now and it can be done, but especially at first it needs to be slow walked to keep from scaring the new members of the coalition who need to be recruited to make it happen.

 

[Intl Professor]

The center of the Democratic Party has moved left. I'm not at all sure Warren is left of where the voters are and she's no Hillary on any measure. What about like-ability?

 

[dmunjal]

The Democratic candidate cannot win without the black vote. Some might argue that Hillary lost because much of the black vote stayed home. Right now, Joe Biden has the majority of it. If he drops out, who will get that vote? I don't know if Warren or even Sanders will get it. Harris would be the most likely candidate and is the DNC favorite.

 

[JRP3]

You really think the black vote is going to shift to Trump? Unlikely, to say the least.

 

[dmunjal]

You really think the black vote is going to shift to Trump? Unlikely, to say the least.

Not at all. That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying they will just stay home.

Here's what happened in Wisconsin with the black vote in 2016.

Many in Milwaukee Neighborhood Didn’t Vote — and Don’t Regret It

 

[EVNow]

The Democratic candidate cannot win without the black vote. Some might argue that Hillary lost because much of the black vote stayed home. Right now, Joe Biden has the majority of it. If he drops out, who will get that vote? I don't know if Warren or even Sanders will get it. Harris would be the most likely candidate and is the DNC favorite.

Bernie has the most diverse base - 51% of his supporters are POC (vs 44% for Biden).

Every black Biden vote will shift to who ever is the nominee. The people who are unlikely to vote in general are usually not even part of the primary polling.

BTW, Biden is not getting many of the Obama-Trump voters (~15M). Not many of the Obama voters who didn't vote either (~7M).

 

[JRP3]

Not at all. That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying they will just stay home.

Here's what happened in Wisconsin with the black vote in 2016.

Many in Milwaukee Neighborhood Didn’t Vote — and Don’t Regret It

From your link:

“Give us loans, or a 401(k),” he said, trimming the mustache of Steve Stricklin, a firefighter from the neighborhood. His biggest issue was health insurance. Mr. Fleming lost his coverage after his divorce three years ago and has struggled to find a policy he could afford. He finally found one, which starts Monday but costs too much at $300 a month.
“Ain’t none of this been working,” he said. He did not vote.

There are candidates directly addressing their concerns, and they aren't Biden.