I'm really impressed with what you bring to this thread, especially your work on party history, which I avoided in 30 plus years teaching Govt 1. And I'm slowly coming closer to worrying about winning, especially after reading the Edsall piece.
You didn't say this, and perhaps you do not think the mere selection of a woman at the top of the ticket was just appealing to the base. There's some evidence Republican women in the suburbs are breaking loose from their party. That is the kind of salami tactics many advocate are needed for victory. A woman at the top would have a better chance. At least Joe Biden is out on that effort.
Thinking very crudely but honestly we have to consider what I guess is now called identity politics. Elsewhere there is good evidence both the older black vote and the younger will support whoever the Dems nominate but their concerns must be addressed. That suggests a VP choice. My first choice would be Mayor Pete. Objectively as a gay man he has faced some of the shame of being an "other" as have blacks, but not as systematic, widespread, and embedded deeply in our institutions, of course. Besides, being white the tag is not obvious. There might be some peeling off of the Republican male vote with that choice. (I wouldn't make that choice for that reason, I'm just blown away by the way he performs in interviews.) Of course he has a severe and direct problem as Mayor with his own nightmare of police and triggers so he may have fatal problems politically. If Warren at the top that leaves another minority pick and Harris would be out. I know the argument is sexist as hell but two women in the top places will be considered by some either brilliant or too much at once. Most of the women I know would wonder at an all female ticket. (See how ambiguity can thread the needle.
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Any of the other choices of males of color would aid the ticket. My safer number two choice would be Booker. My candor here has probably raised so much fur I should quit rather than fall lower. But it would help whoever ends at the top if they award their competitors with cabinet positions—announced soonest—and campaigned with them. (Anyone need more staff?) Booker, Castro, Harris would be great AGs. I think Andrew Yang would be a great science advisor or head of an office of technology assessment or director of OMB.
The Dems have a very deep bench. They are also fighting for policies approved by a super-majority of public opinion opposite a party distinguished for fighting against and reversing progress. That should count for something.
