Market politics

[Intl Professor]

The Buddhist take is similar, characteristically emphasizing personal responsibility. The "original sin" is because of personal behavior in a past life. My wife earns "boon" through prayer and meditation ameliorating that sin by earning "merit," she says. Then that most desirable one, gives me a hug and nuzzles in my ear, "I can share with you the 'boon,' the monk tells me on youtube."

I suffer such elder abuse.

 

[EVNow]

- Democrats take the House, don't take the Senate
- Democrats take the House and Senate
- Republicans hold the House and Senate

Couple of thoughts on this. But before that - there was an interesting comment from a "short" on Reuters.

Market will like a split congress - apparently because nothing gets done, which is "stability" that market likes.

Shorts like volatility - so they prefer to have Republicans hold control of both chambers.

Now, my thoughts. First in short/medium time.
1. If as expected house flips to Dems and Republicans hold the senate with may be increase of one : Market continues as is - may be a little rally as the uncertainty is over.
2. If house flips to Dems - but Senate result is uncertain (because of close races or runoffs) - I expect downturn, as this increases uncertainty.
3. If Dems control both chambers - I expect downturn, as this would mean more clashes with Trump.
4. If Republicans hold both chambers - I expect a rally, as this would mean more tax cuts.

In the longer term, I expect a bearish market & recession before 2020. Republican presidents always bring recession (I think because of lax regulatory environment, businesses (esp finance) takes too many risks).

 

[EVNow]

The Buddhist take is similar, characteristically emphasizing personal responsibility.

This is the common belief of all the religions that originated in the Indian subcontinent - Hinduism, Budhdhism etc. This idea comes originally from Vedic times.

Karma - Wikipedia

 

[Intl Professor]

Two points. I've been worried that Republican shenanigans will adversely effect the upcoming midterm elections, plus I believe what may save us is the obvious anger of women and their willingness to take action on a variety of fronts. These will be the historical themes explaining what is at stake for our potential as a democracy. As usual Thomas Edsall has a marvelous essay summarizing a variety of research on the question today in the New York Times which adroitly skirts (no pun intended) the dangers of sexism.

Opinion | The Gender War, 2018 Edition

 

[bhtooefr]

From Market Action:

Oh PLEASE!

We are NOT on the brink of a civil war. Can't stand by and listen to that drivel without comment. We have two political parties that continue to struggle for power just like they have for the last 100+ years. Like it or not, it is the way the American political system works. The party in power tries to stay there and the party not in power screams, yells, calls fowl every chance they get to regain the power. Both sides of the isle have done it for decades. It's nothing new. I would guess you probably didn't live through the sixties. We are nowhere near civil war.

Continue with your regularly scheduled market watch.

Dan

The fact that the party receiving *fewer* votes has gotten into power repeatedly (2000 Presidential selection, 2016 Presidential election, many years in the Senate, many years in the House) is also making a lot of people really upset. Minority rule tends to amplify people's grievances, because it starts to seem like they *can't* be addressed at the ballot box. When the majority votes for one government, and the other guys get in, the majority understandably starts talking about civil disobedience and the illegitimacy of the govnrment.

Also worth noting that we have a president that's practicing stochastic terrorism with his base (Vox), multiple (NYT) attempts (Guardian) to erase entire classes of people from protection and recognition both in the US and worldwide, bombs sent to prominent Democrats and the media this past week (CNN), growing income inequality (CNBC), open political violence in the streets (WaPo)...

I've personally seen where some people on the far left - especially marginalized people - have softening attitudes towards firearms ownership, seeing the writing on the wall, and seeing that most armed populations are not going to be on their side (with how police and armed forces tend to defend fascists more than their victims).

There's been plenty of people on the right salivating for gun season to open on marginalized people that get in their way, stoked by a decades-long agitprop campaign.

This country is a powder keg about to go off.

 

[wdolson]

From Market Action:





Also worth noting that we have a president that's practicing stochastic terrorism with his base (Vox), multiple (NYT) attempts (Guardian) to erase entire classes of people from protection and recognition both in the US and worldwide, bombs sent to prominent Democrats and the media this past week (CNN), growing income inequality (CNBC), open political violence in the streets (WaPo)...

I've personally seen where some people on the far left - especially marginalized people - have softening attitudes towards firearms ownership, seeing the writing on the wall, and seeing that most armed populations are not going to be on their side (with how police and armed forces tend to defend fascists more than their victims).

There's been plenty of people on the right salivating for gun season to open on marginalized people that get in their way, stoked by a decades-long agitprop campaign.

This country is a powder keg about to go off.

This country is close to if not as divided as it was on the eve of the Civil War. The difference this time is the boundaries are not as geographical as they were then.

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

Love seeing this on one of the popular news sites....

View attachment 339561

If the Democrats get both houses they will extend the $7,500 ev tax credit and or rebate but the stock market over all will probably tank.

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

If the Democrats get both houses they will extend the $7,500 ev tax credit and or rebate but the stock market over all will probably tank.

I wanted to start a new discussion about this subject but I don't know how to.

 

[neroden]

Wait, who do I vote for to end corruption??

Obviously not the Democrats or the Republicans...

Reform Democrats, if you want the honest answer. You have to pick the right Democrat in the primaries (and there isn't always a reformer in the primary). Theoretically, there could be Reform Republicans too, and there used to be, but I haven't seen one in over 20 years (I suspect the blatant election theft of 2000 caused them to all leave the party).

Definitely don't vote for anyone who runs on both the Democratic and Republican lines and then votes with whichever party bribes him more. I refer, of course, to Simcha Felder.

 

[Jayjs20]

You know what, I'll say it.

I'm no fan of Trump. But these past few months, I do understand how his supporters feel about the media.

 

[neroden]

Right, except the ones who receive the kicks may be different from the ones inflicting the damage because they believed stupid fairy tales (see Brexit, or 1930's Germany, or today's climate denialists). At least in the market, a win feels like a win every time for the actual actors (not to mention the losses...).

Absolutely right. In the age of monarchies, the king who created disaster often died peacefully of old age, and his heirs were the ones who got overthrown and executed.

Dick Cheney will probably die peacefully of old age. Reagan already has, dammit.

 

[neroden]

You know what, I'll say it.

I'm no fan of Trump. But these past few months, I do understand how his supporters feel about the media.

...if you'd been paying attention a little earlier, you would have realized that left-wingers have been furious with the media for a lot longer than that. Since they smeared Al Gore nonstop for the entire 2000 campaign season while ignoring absolutely every piece of disturbing news which came out about cocaine-using, draft-dodging, former alcoholic, secret-society member, failed & bailed-out "businessman" George W Bush.

Entire websites were started to counteract the media bias at that time. Dozens. One of them was actually founded by a former right-wing propagandist who felt guilty about how much damage he'd done -- that one is called "Media Matters".

 

[phil0909]

Reform Democrats, if you want the honest answer. You have to pick the right Democrat in the primaries (and there isn't always a reformer in the primary). Theoretically, there could be Reform Republicans too, and there used to be, but I haven't seen one in over 20 years (I suspect the blatant election theft of 2000 caused them to all leave the party).

Definitely don't vote for anyone who runs on both the Democratic and Republican lines and then votes with whichever party bribes him more. I refer, of course, to Simcha Felder.

The Donald must be considered a reform Republican. Clearly he's not a traditional one!

I will watch out for Simche, though - thanks for the warning!

 

[gilscales]

Dick Cheney will probably die peacefully of old age. Reagan already has, dammit.

This is DANGEROUS TALK and it is contributing to why BOTH SIDES of the aisle cannot see compromises and only wish ill will on each other which in turn can and has led to acts of violence against one another, I personally have tried to have dialog with others that quickly leads to diatribe (myself as well I admit it) but I never wish ill will on anyone and I will have to watch what I say here and everywhere moving forward if I am to practice what I preach.

 

[Jayjs20]

...if you'd been paying attention a little earlier, you would have realized that left-wingers have been furious with the media for a lot longer than that. Since they smeared Al Gore nonstop for the entire 2000 campaign season while ignoring absolutely every piece of disturbing news which came out about cocaine-using, draft-dodging, former alcoholic, secret-society member, failed & bailed-out "businessman" George W Bush.

Entire websites were started to counteract the media bias at that time. Dozens. One of them was actually founded by a former right-wing propagandist who felt guilty about how much damage he'd done -- that one is called "Media Matters".

Sorry old man, but I was a youngin' back in those days. Only thing I knew about politics back then was that Clinton and Doe had to hold hands in order to transfer long protein strings. Though that bit of trivia about Media Matters is interesting.

 

[neroden]

Sorry old man, but I was a youngin' back in those days. Only thing I knew about politics back then was that Clinton and Doe had to hold hands in order to transfer long protein strings. Though that bit of trivia about Media Matters is interesting.

Yeah, David Brock was a professional right-wing slander-and-libel spreader. He became sick at heart over what he'd been doing, "found Jesus" and created Media Matters to try to counteract all the vicious lies being put out by his former associates. Basically all it does is fact-check, and it's actually quite good at it.

It's a pity most younger people don't realize that the 2000 election was stolen by the Republican Party flying in a bunch of guys in suits to incite a riot in Miami in order to prevent people's votes from being counted. It was big news at the time. The Florida Supreme Court ordered all the votes to be counted, and then five traitors to the Republic squatting on the Supreme Court ordered that the votes not be counted (two of these traitors had family working on the Bush campaign).

Since then the Republican Party has only gotten more hostile to the idea of democracy. At this point I will simply bluntly say it: the Republican Party leadership hates democracy and hates free & fair elections.

Here's another history lesson.

The Reagan administration sold weapons to the mullahs in Iran for profit (which was illegal), which was funneled to right-wing terrorists (the "Contras") in Nicaragua (which was also illegal). The primary people involved, Oliver North and John Poindexter, were convicted. and then the crooks that Reagan and Nixon had put on the Supreme Court invented new legal doctrines to let them out of jail.

George W. Bush appointed Dick Cheney to find a vice-Presidential candidate; Dick Cheney chose himself, and Bush was dumb enough to go along with it. After being placed into power, Cheney appointed the criminal Poindexter to run the "Total Information Awareness" program, which was the program to illegally and unconstitutionally spy on all Americans without warrants. (Still going on.)

Let's not mince words here. These people -- much of the Republican leadership -- were and are traitors who should have been tried, convicted, and executed. Every time they get away with another one of these acts of war against the United States, they embolden the next set of traitors.

Grassroots Republicans, by contrast, are just chumps. Plenty of Germans in the 1920s/1930s voted for Hitler because they didn't believe he was that bad, and hey, he had an economic plan.

 

[Off Shore]

Yeah, David Brock was a professional right-wing slander-and-libel spreader. He became sick at heart over what he'd been doing, "found Jesus" and created Media Matters to try to counteract all the vicious lies being put out by his former associates. Basically all it does is fact-check, and it's actually quite good at it.

It's a pity most younger people don't realize that the 2000 election was stolen by the Republican Party flying in a bunch of guys in suits to incite a riot in Miami in order to prevent people's votes from being counted. It was big news at the time. The Florida Supreme Court ordered all the votes to be counted, and then five traitors to the Republic squatting on the Supreme Court ordered that the votes not be counted (two of these traitors had family working on the Bush campaign).

Since then the Republican Party has only gotten more hostile to the idea of democracy. At this point I will simply bluntly say it: the Republican Party leadership hates democracy and hates free & fair elections.

Here's another history lesson.

The Reagan administration sold weapons to the mullahs in Iran for profit (which was illegal), which was funneled to right-wing terrorists (the "Contras") in Nicaragua (which was also illegal). The primary people involved, Oliver North and John Poindexter, were convicted. and then the crooks that Reagan and Nixon had put on the Supreme Court invented new legal doctrines to let them out of jail.

George W. Bush appointed Dick Cheney to find a vice-Presidential candidate; Dick Cheney chose himself, and Bush was dumb enough to go along with it. After being placed into power, Cheney appointed the criminal Poindexter to run the "Total Information Awareness" program, which was the program to illegally and unconstitutionally spy on all Americans without warrants. (Still going on.)

Let's not mince words here. These people -- much of the Republican leadership -- were and are traitors who should have been tried, convicted, and executed. Every time they get away with another one of these acts of war against the United States, they embolden the next set of traitors.

Grassroots Republicans, by contrast, are just chumps. Plenty of Germans in the 1920s/1930s voted for Hitler because they didn't believe he was that bad, and hey, he had an economic plan.

executed ==> life in prison, otherwise agree 100%

 

[S'toon]

(After the Republicans *flew in a group of rioters in Brooks Brothers suits* to stop the vote counting.)

One of those rioters was a guy by the name of Brett Kavanaugh.

 

[AZRI11]

Absolutely right. In the age of monarchies, the king who created disaster often died peacefully of old age, and his heirs were the ones who got overthrown and executed.

Dick Cheney will probably die peacefully of old age. Reagan already has, dammit.

In Saddam's case his kids were killed. And then he was executed. Why can't it happen like that all the time.

 

[JRP3]

This is DANGEROUS TALK

It's not, and I think you misconstrue the meaning. He's simply pointing out that those who commit crimes against humanity at the highest level often get away with no consequences.