Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Market politics

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
Learn why we have two parties.

Duverger's law - Wikipedia

At the moment the only way to have a third party is for it to be regionally-based -- in an area where one of the two "major" parties basically doesn't exist.

You want to fix the problem at its root, you have to fix the underlying political system -- advocate for proportional representation. (Actually, approval voting would probably help too.)

Until we do that, then you have to accept that we will have two parties. If you don't like either of the existing parties, the only way to change this is to support the less-bad party until the worse party is *completely marginalized*, rendered so unimportant that we have only *one* party. At that point, there is room for a second party to arise. (This happened early in US history! The Federalists were marginalized. After a period of one-party rule, the Democratic-Republicans split into Whigs and Democrats.)

Caution, however, that in the attempt to eliminate one of the parties and create a period of one-party rule -- so that a second party can arise -- you must NOT support a party which will try to abolish democracy. Because then you'll never get a chance for the new second party to arise. The current Republicans are absolutely trying to abolish democracy, from stealing the election in 2000, to their repeated lawsuits to try to force gerrymandering on Arizona and Pennsylvania even after the voters (in Arizona) and the courts (in Pennsylvania) told them to stop gerrymandering, to their attempts to prevent citizens from voting with bogus paperwork requirements.

The conclusion, for practical people like me, is:
1 -- if the best-polling two candidates in the election are a Democrat and a Republican, vote for the Democrat, always.
2 -- if the best-polling two candidates are a corporate Democrat and a Democrat who supports electoral reform (ending gerrymandering, proportional representation, etc.), support the electoral reform candidate.
3 -- keep trying to raise awareness of Duverger's Law.

I’m largely of the same mind. I’ve long been politically closer aligned to what I consider conservative values and initially registered as Republican. I’ve changed that in recent years and pretty consistently vote for Democrats on the national level, as the Republican Party has seemingly lost its mind. I now tend to skew towards the Libertarian party, but with little hope of them becoming a viable party(even outside the normal roadblocks for 3rd parties to rise, they need to deal with some of their own internal issues, particularly in terms of needing ideological purity).
 
One of the biggest problems with 3rd parties is they tend to be ideologically extreme and an in depth examination of their ideas in the real world tends to show their ideas are unworkable. The Republican Party has become this way too.

The Democrats have their ideals too but are the only party left in the US trying to live in reality.
 
I've had a lot of skepticism about male inadequacy for a long time even though my cocktail party gambit never registered except for women in the crowd. I used to say, "Freud got it wrong, men suffer from clitoral envy."

The problem of low male self-image is even worse than I thought.

Scientists create mice - CNN
One of the greatest advantages of being a old men is that we only have to adapt to these changes for a short while ;-)
 
I've had a lot of skepticism about male inadequacy for a long time even though my cocktail party gambit never registered except for women in the crowd. I used to say, "Freud got it wrong, men suffer from clitoral envy."

The problem of low male self-image is even worse than I thought.

Scientists create mice - CNN

Considering how many male cross-dressers I've known, you may have a point.

Joseph Campbell was a renown expert on mythology and I would claim the Psychology from those myths. He was a college professor, wrote a number of books, but it probably best known for the series he did with Bill Moyers just before his death, The Power Of Myth.

He talked about how children become adults and made the point that biology turns girls into women. They suddenly wake up one day with proof they can produce the next generation. For boys, the road to becoming an adult is less defined. He made the point that this is why most cultures developed rituals that were rites of passage for boys. He pointed out for boys of his generation, it was having to go into the military and fight a war (in his case WW II).

Without something forcing boys to grow up they end up perpetual children. Contrast the last two residents of the White House. Whatever you think of their politics, one is definitely an adult, and the other is a perpetual child.

As for making mice with two female parents, genetically it is more stable. In the human genome the Y chromosome is the least stable. All other chromosomes are paired, one from each parent, so if a chromosome gets damaged, the body can repair by taking the corresponding genes from the paired chromosome, but the Y chromosome is a unicorn. It isn't paired with anything, so if it gets damaged, it can't repair.

In DNA testing the chromosome that changes the fastest is the Y chromosome and the one that changes the slowest is the mitochondrial DNA which only comes from the mother's line.

I have seen speculation that male humans are going extinct because of the rate that the Y chromosome changes, but that doesn't make complete sense to me. It would be the case for any animal with Y chromosomes, including fish, birds, as well as other mammals. And even some of the more advanced mammals have been around for millions of years. Much longer than homo sapien sapiens.

I've been meaning to ask my friend who is a biologist/geneticist (though her thing is plant genetics), but I only see her once a year and forgot the last time I saw her.
 
I have seen speculation that male humans are going extinct because of the rate that the Y chromosome changes, but that doesn't make complete sense to me. It would be the case for any animal with Y chromosomes, including fish, birds, as well as other mammals. And even some of the more advanced mammals have been around for millions of years. Much longer than homo sapien sapiens.

I've been meaning to ask my friend who is a biologist/geneticist (though her thing is plant genetics), but I only see her once a year and forgot the last time I saw her.

Because of that Y variability does that mean men are the source of genetic mutation? Lionel Tiger and Robin Fox argue in The Imperial Animal, we males are very good at killing.
 
Looking ahead, what do people think the US mid-term Elections will do to the market as a whole (if anything) and to TSLA specifically. Earnings are around the same time.

Likely outcomes (in order of probability highest to lowest)

- Democrats take the House, don't take the Senate
- Democrats take the House and Senate
- Republicans hold the House and Senate
 
Any Democrat gain is a good thing from an environmental perspective and that plays well for TSLA. If the brakes can be put on any attempt to remove federal tax credits for EVs you have to say that's a positive.

Those of us over the other side of the pond are watching and praying that Dems can make big inroads, and eventually bring the US back together. That Reps and Dems never seem to work together for the good of the country is a shame.

Sadly we seem to be taking the same route.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Wooloomooloo
Any Democrat gain is a good thing from an environmental perspective and that plays well for TSLA. If the brakes can be put on any attempt to remove federal tax credits for EVs you have to say that's a positive.

Those of us over the other side of the pond are watching and praying that Dems can make big inroads, and eventually bring the US back together. That Reps and Dems never seem to work together for the good of the country is a shame.

Sadly we seem to be taking the same route.
I think the key issue for Tesla is whether Democratic gains in Congress can be sufficient to curb the damage that Trump is doing to trade relations. In particular, the trade war with China is materially adverse to Tesla.

In my view, whether we have an extension of EV tax credits is quite nearly immaterial to Tesla's performance.
 
I think the key issue for Tesla is whether Democratic gains in Congress can be sufficient to curb the damage that Trump is doing to trade relations. In particular, the trade war with China is materially adverse to Tesla.

In my view, whether we have an extension of EV tax credits is quite nearly immaterial to Tesla's performance.

I don’t agree. Trump is acting like any other leader in the world whose primary interest is to protect jobs/industries for their home country. He’s not wrong to renegotiate treaties.

You think Merkel/Xi/Macron/Abe doesn’t do same?
 
Any Democrat gain is a good thing from an environmental perspective and that plays well for TSLA. If the brakes can be put on any attempt to remove federal tax credits for EVs you have to say that's a positive.

Those of us over the other side of the pond are watching and praying that Dems can make big inroads, and eventually bring the US back together. That Reps and Dems never seem to work together for the good of the country is a shame.

Sadly we seem to be taking the same route.

upload_2018-10-16_15-18-43.png



upload_2018-10-16_15-19-9.png

That said... don't be so sure that the loss of the tax credits is a bad thing. Remember that they're about to start working against Tesla, as Tesla's credits will decline but its competitors credits will remain the same. The credit design has also been flawed from the beginning - not just the per-manufacturer phaseout design, but the fact that buyers have to have $7500 in tax liability to make full use of it, and they don't get the money immediately.

I'd say that the options are, from best to worst:

1) Reform / renewal of EV incentives
2) Total repeal of EV incentives (potential side effect: increasing the odds of #1 in the future)
3) No change to the current incentives.

I'd also say that even more valuable to Tesla would be a new government loan program. If they could get high-dollar loans at low interest rates, that would be the bees knees. :) Also valuable would be large utility contracts, with favourable prepayment terms that would allow them to fund scaling up battery production in order to meet the contracts' needs.
 
I don’t agree. Trump is acting like any other leader in the world whose primary interest is to protect jobs/industries for their home country. He’s not wrong to renegotiate treaties.

You think Merkel/Xi/Macron/Abe doesn’t do same?
I am not going to get pulled into a political debate here. This is not the place. Please restrain your comments to focus on what is material to Tesla shareholders.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Zythryn
Looking ahead, what do people think the US mid-term Elections will do to the market as a whole (if anything) and to TSLA specifically. Earnings are around the same time.

Likely outcomes (in order of probability highest to lowest)

- Democrats take the House, don't take the Senate
- Democrats take the House and Senate
- Republicans hold the House and Senate

1. Down slightly
2. Down substantially
3. Natural market ups and downs. We’re due for a correction btw.
 
  • Disagree
Reactions: JRP3
Looking ahead, what do people think the US mid-term Elections will do to the market as a whole (if anything) and to TSLA specifically. Earnings are around the same time.

Likely outcomes (in order of probability highest to lowest)

- Democrats take the House, don't take the Senate
- Democrats take the House and Senate
- Republicans hold the House and Senate

Mod: Please move to market politics.
 
I am not going to get pulled into a political debate here. This is not the place. Please restrain your comments to focus on what is material to Tesla shareholders.

I think the repatriation of overseas earnings was good for Tesla and many other companies. We are either going to have an economic war with China or a real one. They steal everything and violate almost every agreement made. It's in Tesla's interest to crack down on China's behavior BEFORE they build a factory in their country.
 
  • Like
Reactions: X Fan
Hey this is Belgium where things never get resolved - the Flemish in the north will blame the lazy Wallonians in the south, who will in turn claim the Flemish stole all their money from the old days. In the end they'll both agree that in fact it's the fault of Brussels and eventually blame the European Commission.

Net result, nothing will get done.

Are they also called Republicans and Democrats and the Eu is Trump?

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.
 
I don’t agree. Trump is acting like any other leader in the world whose primary interest is to protect jobs/industries for their home country. He’s not wrong to renegotiate treaties.

You think Merkel/Xi/Macron/Abe doesn’t do same?

As a German citizen I can confirm that our Chancellor Merkel does not renegotiate treaties in order to protect jobs/industries in our home country.

With regards to auto production and sales I believe that stable and free markets benefit everybody including jobs and industries.

IMHO The current trade negotiations are a loose - loose situation for all parties. Without starting a politic discussion here I tried but do not understand your assumption that its good to renegotiate treaties. I believe the US does suffer the most from the development.

I did reply to your post because it has an impact on Tesla too but with all respect do not understand the reasoning that renegotiating treaties is not wrong.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.