I’m starting to thing
@AlanSubie4Life has the right theory of “luck of the draw”
To be clear, I think there are certainly things you can do (like always charge to 50% or something and never discharge below 30%) which will presumably eventually confuse the BMS. And I also believe there are things you can do that are known to be abusive to the battery (nothing that you have described above would qualify). But I guess my claim is that I think that while the BMS confusion stuff could impact estimates temporarily, it seems to me there is no avoiding the overall capacity loss trend that corresponds to your battery, even if BMS confusion is layered on top. And my feeling is that specific behavior is somewhat "luck of the draw."
Note: First range drop was at about 5,000 mi
I'm really liking this theory about this "hidden degradation" initially, because it fits all the data:
1) BMS readbacks don't fit the expectation (charging constant * rated miles) when "full" energies (as per SMT, TM-Spy or whatever) would result in rated miles available higher than the EPA rating. (264rmi for the LEMR for example is 62.6kWh but that's not what the EPA document says, and probably the CAN bus would read a larger value on a brand-new LEMR car.)
2) The CAN bus readbacks on AWDs clearly show that energies start relatively close to Tesla's result from the EPA test.
3) Most people don't report degradation (at least on MR and LR AWD) right away. There is nearly invariably a delay before people see capacity loss.
4) Physically, we know that actually lithium ion batteries are expected to degrade fastest when they are new. Then the capacity loss slows down (a lot). This isn't what we're seeing, though, so I suspect this initial degradation is hidden.
So I think what happened to you in those first few thousand miles is that you lost ~1kWh of energy (went from 63.5kWh available to about 62.5kWh). It just didn't show up due to Tesla's manipulations of the numbers to make things look unchanged.
I still don't understand exactly how Tesla hides this extra degradation initially, but it would not be hard to do (there are several ways to manage it via modification of the constants, etc.). It could be detected, but would require careful trip meter tracking over time.
It doesn't matter though - I think the 30% warranty would apply to the energy relative to the EPA number (and your initial available energy) - not relative to initial rated miles. So in the case of the MR it would kick in around 63.5*0.7 = 44.45kWh. We know that would be at about 188 rated miles. (Not 0.7*264 = 185 rated miles). That would certainly be my argument anyway, in the unlikely event that you have to use that warranty.
My guess is this capacity loss is going to slow way down for most people once they reach 12-18 months of ownership, so warranty claims will be rare (I hope!).