Might the new battery tech be worthy of a new vehicle order delay

[closdeben]

I realize they're two years out and that two years is uncertain but they have great potential of higher range, lower cost, perhaps lighter weight. The benefits were substantial and across the board. Barring immediate vehicle needs it would be a shame to purchase a new Tesla of any model to have the new batteries provide large across-the-board benefits for the not too distant future (or current) models.

Even the Lucid Air Grand Touring model at under 100k is at least worth considering. It also appears to have range and room and charge speed benefits. I'm taking the question a bit sideways on the Lucid topic but both give me at least temporary pause placing a new order.

We sold our Model 3 just prior to Covid in plans to get a Y but soon discovered our driving needs were super low so held off the order. Over the past six months the choice is at least a little less clear. Curious what others think of the future options. I know it's long and there will always be new features tempting an upgrade. The Model Y isn't in Lucid price territory but isn't cheap either. Other than the wait, what's your perspective ?

 

[theothertom]

Depends on how old you are and what your patience level is. I'm old and don't have much patience, so I ordered now. There'll always be something new around he corner. IMO, Tesla and others are making incremental improvements. A solid state battery will be the next big thing.

 

[WADan]

I realize they're two years out and that two years is uncertain but they have great potential of higher range, lower cost, perhaps lighter weight. The benefits were substantial and across the board. Barring immediate vehicle needs it would be a shame to purchase a new Tesla of any model to have the new batteries provide large across-the-board benefits for the not too distant future (or current) models.

Even the Lucid Air Grand Touring model at under 100k is at least worth considering. It also appears to have range and room and charge speed benefits. I'm taking the question a bit sideways on the Lucid topic but both give me at least temporary pause placing a new order.

We sold our Model 3 just prior to Covid in plans to get a Y but soon discovered our driving needs were super low so held off the order. Over the past six months the choice is at least a little less clear. Curious what others think of the future options. I know it's long and there will always be new features tempting an upgrade. The Model Y isn't in Lucid price territory but isn't cheap either. Other than the wait, what's your perspective ?

 

[WADan]

I also waited for the Battery day before putting in my order. I think if and when the new battery is available, there will be just enough for the production of the truck and the semi for a while. Elon has stated that different types of battery will be used for different requirements. For example, smaller cars (the new model 2) will probably use those made by CATL in China.

 

[everydaychris]

Its tough. Similiar situation but I realized the MY is already good enough. I was considering leasing as well but we would be driving the MY the most and would most def go over the 15 k a year

 

[patmurphey]

The new batteries are going into the Cyber Truck and Semi (and Model S Plaid and Roadster, maybe), first. It might be quite a while afterward that production will be robust enough to move to Model Y in Texas.

 

[rypalmer]

The new batteries are going into the Cyber Truck and Semi (and Model S Plaid and Roadster, maybe), first. It might be quite a while afterward that production will be robust enough to move to Model Y in Texas.

I think if you consider the need to downplay advancements that are coming within 2-4 years, you have to assume Elon actively downplayed the promise of battery day as it relates to existing high volume cars (3 and Y). So I would not take his comments that "it will be CT and Semi that get the new tech first" at face value at all.

I think the more likely scenario is that Model Y was structured with this big change in mind (battery as structure, with new cells) but they realized the new cell line would not be ready in time and had to proceed with existing battery tech. In which case, pivoting to the new tech will just involve swapping the battery mounts and battery for something more integral to the vehicle. The bigger the improvements in range, cost, capital efficiency, etc, the bigger the rush to roll these improvements out to their mass market vehicles.

For that reason, I'll be waiting on the Model Y purchase, as much as it hurts to do so.

 

[Brandon#]

The new Panasonic 2170 batteries are supposed to have a 5% improvement in energy density and go into production this month. I haven’t seen any current news regarding this though.

Panasonic boosts energy density, trims cobalt in new 2170 battery cell for Tesla – TechCrunch

 

[theothertom]

The new Panasonic 2170 batteries are supposed to have a 5% improvement in energy density and go into production this month. I haven’t seen any current news regarding this though.

Panasonic boosts energy density, trims cobalt in new 2170 battery cell for Tesla – TechCrunch

I wonder when these will start making their way into the model 3/Y

 

[zecar]

I wonder when these will start making their way into the model 3/Y

Tesla can just choose to use fewer cells

 

[theothertom]

Tesla can just choose to use fewer cells

True, and they might do that. But it might be easier to use the same number of cells because the manufacturing process is set up for that. I don't know exactly how they would leave some spaces empty.

 

[drotto25]

I doubt they will hit the MY or M3 anytime in the near future. Both cars are successful, and work as advertised. The new battery size may need a level of design changes and cost that is not justifiable in a successful car. Your average consumer is unlikely to demand rhe change or possibly even see the difference. Plus look at both the S and the X which are still using an even earlier cell.

On the other hand, given the size, weight, and promises of Musk, if the Semi and CT do not use the new cell, they stand a chance of falling short if what has been promised. So they may be tied to the success of the new battery, unlike the MY.

 

[patmurphey]

Just refer to this chart. It gives aclue to the current plan:

 

[user212_nr]

I realize they're two years out and that two years is uncertain but they have great potential of higher range, lower cost, perhaps lighter weight.

Do you need the higher range for something? I would expect that the specs of the car in terms of range will end up similar to where they are today. It sounds to me like you are getting too far into a "bigger numbers are better" mentality and causing yourself a lot of FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt).

Sure, the cars will be cheaper in 2 years, 100%. You will also save money and you will have the interest on that money in addition to the lower price. You can buy the same car that you would have bought, only on the used market as 2-years old.

Depends on how old you are and what your patience level is. I'm old and don't have much patience, so I ordered now. There'll always be something new around he corner.

Exactly.

We sold our Model 3 just prior to Covid in plans to get a Y but soon discovered our driving needs were super low so held off the order.

I kept my model 3 through COVID and I'm happy to have driven it to Walmart twice a day when there was nothing to do.

Driving a nice car isn't really about how many miles that you put on it. If you can't afford it or would rather save your $ it is perfectly sensible.

 

[drotto25]

Tesla has pretty much confirmed that the new batteries are about 2 to 3 years away and will be used in the Cybertruck, Semi, and S plaid first. So I suspect it will be many years before the Y and 3 see the new cells.

 

[FredMertz]

There will never be a time where something new and better isn't 2 years away. Think of it as more like a tech product than a car.

 

[closdeben]

The greater range would help. We're 3+ hours away from the next big town over a mountain range so any extra range is a plus. I The 3 had enough range but if there was an option available for more, I'd consider the upgrade. And yes, I realize that future improvements are always out there. Who doesn't ? I didn't sell the 3 due to covid, just delayed buying a Y.

Good to know about the new cells being dedicated for the truck. My worry was partially around how steeply a Y might depreciate if a 25k 3 (or Y) were available in a few years time. The Lucid is steeply priced and not for sale so not really a fair comparison (and not that attractive to my eyes) but that extra range and space have some appeal. I'm glad Tesla will at least have some competition. Seems like everyone will benefit.

Now if Tesla were to announce a minivan, I'd definitely wait. Even the Y is a squeeze for 5.

 

[closdeben]

Just saw: Tesla Model Y from Giga Berlin will utilize 4680 cells and structural battery pack

Indicates LFP 4680 cells will trickle down to Fremont factory as well but seemed destined specifically for medium range cars. Not sure the reason but appears that for long range customers like myself, may not happen.

 

[WADan]

Just saw: Tesla Model Y from Giga Berlin will utilize 4680 cells and structural battery pack

Indicates LFP 4680 cells will trickle down to Fremont factory as well but seemed destined specifically for medium range cars. Not sure the reason but appears that for long range customers like myself, may not happen.

Elon also said it will be 2 years out!

 

[mark95476]

Model S Plaid will get the new 4680 batteries first. Expect all Model S to get these new batteries afterwards.

I find it unusual that the Lucid Air is mentioned. They definitely don't have anything significantly new for battery tech (2170). They do have an optional larger (~115 kWh) pack that comes with a very high price. The Lucid SUV proto is more-or-less TBD.

Y is expected to be very high volume so Tesla will need high throughput (big factory) on the 4680 batteries.