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Model 3 100 kWh battery and Ludicrous Mode [speculation about future developments]

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I am aware but once you put some sticky tires on then we might find the limits of the stock brakes and whether they can provide enough stopping power to even lock up a set of sticky tires.

Unless your tires are made from unobtainable, they can.

Plenty of folks have put the stickiest street legal tires available on RWD, AWD, and P3D- cars and had no trouble engaging ABS with the stock brakes.

I agree brakes can change the "feel" of the car, they just won't shorten how many feet it takes to stop in a single emergency stop... nor will if you took 7, 8, or 9 seconds to get to 100 depending which trim of 3 you were accelerating with change how many feet it takes to stop either.
 
If Tesla popped in a new version of the Model 3 that had a 100kwh battery pack, it may not make every model 3 obsolete, but it would really annoy enough current owners (especially those who bought in 2019) that Tesla would lose an enormous amount of customer loyalty.

From what I see with Tesla, they will/could do it anyway. But 2nd or 3rd Tesla owners are what Tesla needs to survive. Within a year or two, the competition will be at Tesla’s heels, and Tesla needs to sell new cars to an already established core customer base. Tesla has a marginal reputation now from delivery flakiness - they don’t need to hurt their reputation any further.

They’d have to do it for the Model Y also, and potentially change a bunch of those pre-orders.

But you never know with Tesla do you?
 
If Tesla popped in a new version of the Model 3 that had a 100kwh battery pack, it may not make every model 3 obsolete, but it would really annoy enough current owners (especially those who bought in 2019) that Tesla would lose an enormous amount of customer loyalty.

From what I see with Tesla, they will/could do it anyway. But 2nd or 3rd Tesla owners are what Tesla needs to survive. Within a year or two, the competition will be at Tesla’s heels, and Tesla needs to sell new cars to an already established core customer base. Tesla has a marginal reputation now from delivery flakiness - they don’t need to hurt their reputation any further.

They’d have to do it for the Model Y also, and potentially change a bunch of those pre-orders.

But you never know with Tesla do you?

By your logic you don't want Tesla to get better and introduce better versions of things because that would make previous owners mad. Do you know how absurd that sounds?

There is something to be said about the timing of price changes and such, but a strong disagree with regards to halting progress.
 
If Tesla popped in a new version of the Model 3 that had a 100kwh battery pack, it may not make every model 3 obsolete, but it would really annoy enough current owners (especially those who bought in 2019) that Tesla would lose an enormous amount of customer loyalty.

Like S60 owners who got mad when the S70 came out... or both got mad when The S75 came out...and everyone got mad when the S90 and S100 came out?

Nope.


Within a year or two, the competition will be at Tesla’s heels

Really?

Sure doesn't look like it right now.

All competition with specs announced to be on the market next 1-2 years are well behind current Tesla range/specs- and/or production targets are going to be like 10-20 times lower than Teslas.
 
By your logic you don't want Tesla to get better and introduce better versions of things because that would make previous owners mad. Do you know how absurd that sounds?

There is something to be said about the timing of price changes and such, but a strong disagree with regards to halting progress.
No, this is a business opinion - not personal. Frankly I do not personally care.

(IMO) Tesla as a company is acting too much like a business with a start-up mentality. To make changes left and right are not good to develop a strong business presence. And whether they like it or not, Tesla is in the big leagues now.

It would be as if Apple jumped from an iPhone 4 to an iPhone 8. You rattle your consumer base. With companies like GM, Ford, Volkswagen, etc. working hard to take Tesla off the map - Tesla needs to keep it's past and future customers loyal and happy. No way is Tesla going to take over the EV market without that base.

I'm not talking enthusiasts (like here), but mainstream consumers who are and will buy bEVs as a personal decision based on what the company and its products are perceived to be. Tesla would have to introduce a new battery pack in the Model Y, and will look flaky if they have to restructure everything at this point. People, in general, do not like too much change - too quickly. Not everyone wants to be part of the future right away.

Like S60 owners who got mad when the S70 came out... or both got mad when The S75 came out...and everyone got mad when the S90 and S100 came out?
The Model S (and x) were niche market products for enthusiasts or for people with deep pockets who just wanted something different. Most of the people I know with Model Ss are financially endowed to the point where they do not feel any bit of a lighter wallet from having bought one. The car goes away, they just buy another one. (funny, but I am the first person I know of that purchased a Model 3).

All competition with specs announced to be on the market next 1-2 years are well behind current Tesla range/specs- and/or production targets are going to be like 10-20 times lower than Teslas.

Agreed - in part, anyway. But any large company that "assumes" that it's competition is weak is in serious trouble. You never sit there and assume "company Y" will never pose a threat to you. Perhaps not a year or two, but eventually there will be competition. There is serious money looking to dominate the EV market. You always look behind you and see who is a possible threat. Do you really think that these companies do not realize that ICE cars are dead at some point not too far in the future? Their futures are on the line too.

Tesla's biggest weakness is that it is still struggling to do basic things, like build and deliver cars without a major spectacle, etc. Future customers are going to look at car companies that they can feel safe with as a non-enthusiast. These people just want to make ends meet - and do not want to "bet" on the future of the manufacturer of the car they buy. It's very different than the people here.
 
No, this is a business opinion - not personal. Frankly I do not personally care.

(IMO) Tesla as a company is acting too much like a business with a start-up mentality. To make changes left and right are not good to develop a strong business presence. And whether they like it or not, Tesla is in the big leagues now.

It would be as if Apple jumped from an iPhone 4 to an iPhone 8. You rattle your consumer base. With companies like GM, Ford, Volkswagen, etc. working hard to take Tesla off the map - Tesla needs to keep it's past and future customers loyal and happy. No way is Tesla going to take over the EV market without that base.

I'm not talking enthusiasts (like here), but mainstream consumers who are and will buy bEVs as a personal decision based on what the company and its products are perceived to be. Tesla would have to introduce a new battery pack in the Model Y, and will look flaky if they have to restructure everything at this point. People, in general, do not like too much change - too quickly. Not everyone wants to be part of the future right away.

That is a fallacious example and you know it. First of all a hypothetical 100kWh Model 3 is not at all like going from the iPhone 4 to the iPhone 8. You're trying to compare a potential single generation jump (where the only change is likely the battery + maybe the motors/speed) with 4+ generation jump with iPhone, where a lot more was added (more cameras, TouchID/FaceID, better screens, etc).. A Model 3 with a larger battery pack is nowhere as extreme as moving to the next gen (or 2 or 3) iPhone.

Also the example is absurd because Apple has not themselves done anything crazy like that.

Tesla's biggest weakness is that it is still struggling to do basic things, like build and deliver cars without a major spectacle, etc. Future customers are going to look at car companies that they can feel safe with as a non-enthusiast. These people just want to make ends meet - and do not want to "bet" on the future of the manufacturer of the car they buy. It's very different than the people here.

I agree with this to an extent, but do not conflate the need to innovate with the need to be able to deliver on customer experience. While I agree they need to do better on basic execution, the crazy innovation that you think will make existing people mad are actually bringing in new people still. Until the market is saturated I think it is in Tesla's best interest to continue to innovate and push boundaries.
 
The Model 3 you decide to buy on a given day is what you decided to buy. You would’ve been happy with the range, performance, etc at the time, otherwise you wouldn’t have bought it.

Another version coming out might affect your residuals but it doesn’t change what you bought or the decision making process that went into it. It still travels for the same distance and at the same acceleration as the day before a new model is announced.

In terms of technology generally, especially something like EVs which is rapidly improving, expecting things to stay still so you can enjoy some perceived higher retained value or exclusivity or whatever seems counter productive, to everyone.
 
It's very possible. We've already been seeing the results of incremental density updates.

Detailed buried in this post:

Thread by @jpr007: "TESLA PANASONIC BATTERIES - UPDATE 20191130 There have been a number of interesting developments taking place at GF1 over the last six month […]"

About two years ago 4,416 cells of 2170 size were require to build a 75 kWh Model 3 battery pack, as illustrated by a Jack Rickard teardown of a used Model 3 in June 2018

This rates each cell at 16.98 Wh each of useable capacity

14. Today we estimate that Tesla can build a 75 kWh Model 3 battery pack with 4,067 cells

This rates each cell at 18.44 Wh each, for a +8.6% improvement in useable cell capacity​
4067 / 96 doesn't compute. So it's just bunch of pseudo random numbers.
 
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4067 / 96 doesn't compute. So it's just bunch of pseudo random numbers.


yeah if you read the details there's a LOT of guesses in their math, and some more that're at best educated guesses based on expected # of cells made in the future split among expected total amount of storage capacity produced in the future (and not necessarily the same future dates)

None of which changes the fact Tesla remains battery constrained so even if they can build an LR battery with fewer cells, those extra ones would go into ANOTHER car they otherwise lack enough cells to build at all, rather than bumping capacity on the existing car.

The link also notes they're currently looking at maybe enough extra cells for 15-20k model Y cars a quarter right now. Which is probably fine for the VERY initial couple months of ramp up/launch.... but woefully inadequate for expected demand given it's supposedly gonna be higher than the 3 which they're making 100k+ per quarter.

So any extra capacity/cells they DO come up with are going to be going into Ys, not larger 3 batteries.
 
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The Model 3 you decide to buy on a given day is what you decided to buy. You would’ve been happy with the range, performance, etc at the time, otherwise you wouldn’t have bought it.

Another version coming out might affect your residuals but it doesn’t change what you bought or the decision making process that went into it. It still travels for the same distance and at the same acceleration as the day before a new model is announced.

In terms of technology generally, especially something like EVs which is rapidly improving, expecting things to stay still so you can enjoy some perceived higher retained value or exclusivity or whatever seems counter productive, to everyone.

Agree with this. If the new battery was introduced Jan 1, I’d be happy for the new owners, and still enjoy my one week old car. Trying to catch a technology wave and always have the “best” is a fools errand.

Personally, 200-300 miles is way more than enough for my daily needs, so a larger battery (with more weight and probably at a higher cost) serves no practical purpose, except to say I have a bigger battery, lol.

How many buyers need more range? I rather see increases in efficiency and weight reduction than double stacking batteries. That seems like a lazy solution that isn’t worth the added complexity and cost to most buyers, IMO.

Are there really that many people regularly driving 500+ miles in a car without stopping? Highly doubt it. That’s way out on the fringe.
 
None of which changes the fact Tesla remains battery constrained so even if they can build an LR battery with fewer cells, those extra ones would go into ANOTHER car they otherwise lack enough cells to build at all, rather than bumping capacity on the existing car.

Don't say that like its a bad thing. If they are able to shave out 8% of the battery cells from a pack, that's a nice savings in weight.
 
How many buyers need more range? I rather see increases in efficiency and weight reduction than double stacking batteries. That seems like a lazy solution that isn’t worth the added complexity and cost to most buyers, IMO.

Are there really that many people regularly driving 500+ miles in a car without stopping? Highly doubt it. That’s way out on the fringe.


Average american drives roughly 10 or 30 miles a day depending if you want to use mean or median for the measurement... so yeah even dead of winter in an SR there's PLENTY more than enough range for nearly everyones normal use.

And given the aforementioned constraints on production (ie Tesla couldn't replace even 5% of new cars sold in the US each year because they're physically incapable of building that many cars due to among other things lack of batteries) the fact they might be missing out on the tiny fringe of car buyers who "need" 400-500 miles of range on a single charge routinely isn't really costing them anything.
 
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I think it’s hilarious that P- owners care if track mode is enabled, but don’t want to pay for the P+ upgrades that would be beneficial to actual track use, which track mode was designed for...

For people who like to autocross, it is basically no significant additional cost other than an extra set of wheels. And that buys you a quality set of tires for daily driving, leaving you with MXM4s for barely passable but workable winter use.

Regarding battery sizing:
Does anyone know what the wheelbase of the Model Y is? Same as Model 3? I wonder if the battery will be packaged a little more densely in that car? I feel like to get to 300 mile range vs. 322 or so for the Model 3, you might need a little more than the existing 79kWh usable (nominal 75kWh I guess) battery on Model 3. The aero hit seems a little larger than 10%. But only part of the rating is highway of course. So maybe the promised range for Model Y adds up with the same wheelbase and battery size? Thoughts? Just wondering if we can draw conclusions on denser packaging from what we know...
 
So the only benefit to a 400+ mile range is the occasional long distance trip. Maybe it will cut down your charging time by 10 minutes, or eliminate one extra stop on a very long trip.

Just not worth worrying about.

It's like flying in business class on a long flight: Definitely pricey, and definitely so worth it :D I'm open to getting S or 3 plaid or whatever comes first with ludicrous and +400 miles ;)
 
It's like flying in business class on a long flight: Definitely pricey, and definitely so worth it :D I'm open to getting S or 3 plaid or whatever comes first with ludicrous and +400 miles ;)

Right. Of course when that comes out you’ll say you’re waiting for the +500 mile vehicle with Photon speed Mode...

You’ve been around since 2016, what Tesla model have you owned?