Model 3 Battery size

[daniel]

I understand what you're saying and, mostly, agree. My post was in response to the poster who made sound like Tesla would intentionally not give the Model 3 as much range as the Model S.

Okay. Of course at this point, all we can do is speculate, and speculation is worth about as much as a bucket of snow in North Dakota in January.

As for someone's earlier comment that someone else was basing a thousands-of-dollars decision on 20 miles, it could be argued that anyone who buys a bigger battery is basing that decision one just one mile. Because one way or another we all have a tipping point at which a bigger battery becomes worth the price: some number of miles where you would upgrade, and some number where you would not. And in the end, there's just one mile separating the north side of that line from the south. The exceptions being the people who will only ever buy the base model no matter what, and the people who will always buy the biggest battery, no matter what. Somewhere, that one mile makes the difference between being worth it, and not.

Would you pay $1,000 extra for one extra mile? Probably not. For two extra miles? For 3? Would you pay $1,000 above the base price for a thousand miles of range? Probably anybody reading this would. Counting one mile at a time, there's got to be one spot where you flip.

 

[pkulak]

My hope is that we haven't heard anything from Elon on ranges because he can't afford to cannibalize Model S sales. Sure, he doesn't care if people choose the 3 over the S when they are both available, but having S sales tank right now would be a disaster. As far as I'm concerned, the longer it takes for any word on range, the more likely it is that 300+ will be an option, and for far less than any 100-kWh model S that you can buy right now.

 

[dsvick]

My hope is that we haven't heard anything from Elon on ranges because he can't afford to cannibalize Model S sales. Sure, he doesn't care if people choose the 3 over the S when they are both available, but having S sales tank right now would be a disaster. As far as I'm concerned, the longer it takes for any word on range, the more likely it is that 300+ will be an option, and for far less than any 100-kWh model S that you can buy right now.

Tesla isn't worried at all about Model 3 sales taking away from the S or X. Some estimates have current Model 3 reservations at about 600,000 and Model S and X sales are just fine, in fact, they're better than ever.

Same as with any other manufacturer that has similar models, there are plenty of things to differentiate them and dozens of reason why people get one over the other. Sure there are people that could go either way but, for the most part, people will choose one over the other. Either due to size, appointments, perceived status, body style, or any combination of them. The Toyota Corolla and Camry are very similar and yet both keep showing up on top 10 sales lists. Neither one is tanking because the other exists.

 

[Incredulocious]

Tesla isn't worried at all about Model 3 sales taking away from the S or X. Some estimates have current Model 3 reservations at about 600,000 and Model S and X sales are just fine, in fact, they're better than ever.

I agree with pkulak. You argue that Model S and X sales are just fine (and "better than ever") and that's good. They need to remain that way. If they were to reveal something about the 3 that would reduce S and X sales before the 3 comes out, that would not be good. I believe that is what pkulak was saying.

 

[JeffK]

I agree with pkulak. You argue that Model S and X sales are just fine (and "better than ever") and that's good. They need to remain that way. If they were to reveal something about the 3 that would reduce S and X sales before the 3 comes out, that would not be good. I believe that is what pkulak was saying.

I'm fairly positive if they announced something awesome for the Model 3 that it's be available for the Model S/X shortly if not the same day.

 

[daniel]

I'm fairly positive if they announced something awesome for the Model 3 that it's be available for the Model S/X shortly if not the same day.

I agree. The Model 3 is lighter, but also smaller. So it will get better range per kWh but will have room for fewer batteries. If they offer, say, a 400-mile version of the Model 3 due to improved batteries, the Model S will get the same batteries at the same time, and will likely become available in a 400-mile version at the same time as the Model 3.

My guess is that the bigger, more expensive Model S will always have slightly better or more features or have them sooner than the Model 3. I can live with that because the S is just too big a car for me so I will settle for a step down in order to have a smaller car. Also, in the same vein, the Model 3 needs to be less expensive than the Model S, so the 3 will never be as fancy or as luxurious. Two cars, two sizes, two price levels, two levels of luxury, will insure that the 3 doesn't take sales away from the S.

 

[aronth5]

Tesla isn't worried at all about Model 3 sales taking away from the S or X. Some estimates have current Model 3 reservations at about 600,000 and Model S and X sales are just fine, in fact, they're better than ever....
.

I think you're right long term. What Tesla may be worried about though are cancellations and buyers holding off on buying a Model S between now and the end of the year. If that happens cash is affected and that could be a problem. I think they are walking a fairly delicate line on how much information to share and when should they announce it. My guess is we will still be complaining about the lack of details especially related to pricing options after the next reveal.

 

[Model 3]

If they offer, say, a 400-mile version of the Model 3 due to improved batteries, the Model S will get the same batteries at the same time, and will likely become available in a 400-mile version at the same time as the Model 3.

Normally I would agree with you, except:
- Elon has said that this 100kWh battery they are currently making for Model S+X is the best they could make - assumed "with the current cells". So to give TMS+X any more range they need the new 21-70 cells they are producing at GF-I
- All 21-70 cells currently produced at GF-I is targeted stationary batteries (PowerWall+PowerPack).
- In Q2 this year it would start producing 21-70 cells for Model 3.
- They will not be able to deliver 21-70 cells to TMS+X before they get more then enough cells produced for all the PowerWall+PowerPack+TM3 that they could make. If that depends on GF-I, it will probably not be available to TMS+X until late this year or sometime next year.

They could - and probably does - get Panasonic to also produce the new cells in Asia, but when that can be done and in what quantities is unknown. But I'm sure that also will take some time. So no, I don't think they will be able to deliver more then the current 100kWh battery pack to TMS+X until after they have started deliveries of the Model 3 (if it is not delayed). And at least not by the time they publishes the ranges for Model 3.

But of course - if they are planning on a 400+ miles range on the Model 3, they may delay the introduction of that range/battery pack until they are ready to deliver the same to the Gen-II cars. Then they can sell a new Model 3 to the customers that already had received their "top of the line" cars that no longer is "top of the line". Win-Win for Tesla-Tesla

 

[Troy]

Most likely scenario is 55 and 75 kWh versions. I'm 100% sure the base model will be 55 kWh and 90% sure the largest battery will be 75 kWh. There is 10% chance it will be 80 kWh. There is 0% chance the largest battery will be anything other than 75 or 80 kWh. Even the Model 3 75D will have at least 300 miles EPA rated range based on my detailed calculations here, earlier in this thread.

 

[aronth5]

Most likely scenario is 55 and 75 kWh versions. I'm 100% sure the base model will be 55 kWh and 90% sure the largest battery will be 75 kWh. There is 10% chance it will be 80 kWh. There is 0% chance the largest battery will be anything other than 75 or 80 kWh. Even the Model 3 75D will have at least 300 miles EPA rated range based on my detailed calculations here, earlier in this thread.

Would you mind sharing your inside source on the 55 kWh battery since that is the only way anyone could be 100% sure!

 

[Troy]

Would you mind sharing your inside source on the 55 kWh battery since that is the only way anyone could be 100% sure!

Hi. The source is Jeff Evanson from Tesla. You can find the details here. Also, my range calculations (here) show that the Model 3 55 would have more than 215 miles EPA rated range which is the number they gave during the reveal event.

 

[Model 3]

I'm 100% sure the base model will be 55 kWh and 90% sure the largest battery will be 75 kWh.

I basically agree with you here, except I see a chance that they will "up" the battery a bit now after GM has shown their cars, and go for 60/80kWh packs instead.

Mind you - as we have seen on the 100kWh pack they seems to be in a change for how they names the models/battery packs. As known earlier that the number they gave the battery pack/car model was an "optimistic" rating, like 85 kWh with only around 77kWh or something usable. The 100kWh battery pack is from what I have read actually bigger then 100kWh and you have almost 100kWh usable in this. So they may actually have a ~60kWh pack and call it 55, or a ~65kWh pack and call it 60.

 

[daniel]

Normally I would agree with you, except:
- Elon has said that this 100kWh battery they are currently making for Model S+X is the best they could make - assumed "with the current cells". So to give TMS+X any more range they need the new 21-70 cells they are producing at GF-I
- All 21-70 cells currently produced at GF-I is targeted stationary batteries (PowerWall+PowerPack).
- In Q2 this year it would start producing 21-70 cells for Model 3.
- They will not be able to deliver 21-70 cells to TMS+X before they get more then enough cells produced for all the PowerWall+PowerPack+TM3 that they could make. If that depends on GF-I, it will probably not be available to TMS+X until late this year or sometime next year.

They could - and probably does - get Panasonic to also produce the new cells in Asia, but when that can be done and in what quantities is unknown. But I'm sure that also will take some time. So no, I don't think they will be able to deliver more then the current 100kWh battery pack to TMS+X until after they have started deliveries of the Model 3 (if it is not delayed). And at least not by the time they publishes the ranges for Model 3.

But of course - if they are planning on a 400+ miles range on the Model 3, they may delay the introduction of that range/battery pack until they are ready to deliver the same to the Gen-II cars. Then they can sell a new Model 3 to the customers that already had received their "top of the line" cars that no longer is "top of the line". Win-Win for Tesla-Tesla

If that's the case, about battery availability (and I don't doubt you) then I predict that the Model 3 gets the older style batteries and a possible 400-mile Model 3 would wait for a future model year. In tech, whether computers, cell phones, or cars, each model is more powerful than the one before. If you buy your Model 3 a year after I buy mine, you're going to have a better car, possibly with greater range. But I'll have had my car to drive a year sooner. That's the trade-off. Have the computer or phone or car a year sooner, or wait a year for a better one. And a year after that there'll be a still better one.

I predict the Model S will always get the latest and best tech, and the Model 3 will get it at the same time or later.

Would you mind sharing your inside source on the 55 kWh battery since that is the only way anyone could be 100% sure!

Not quite true. A person can be 100% sure and still be wrong. It happens all the time.

 

[aronth5]

Not quite true. A person can be 100% sure and still be wrong. It happens all the time.

Daniel... Your right of course!

 

[timk225]

The base battery will be 60 because the 3 HAS to have more base range than the Chevy Bolt. It simply must, it doesn't matter if it is even only 1 mile.

 

[Topher]

A person can't be 100% sure. Mathematically impossible.

Thank you kindly.

 

[Model 3]

... then I predict that the Model 3 gets the older style batteries ...

No. As I said, the new cells targeted Model 3 production will start in Q2 this year. So all Model 3 will get the new cells in their battery packs. That is at least what Elon/J.B./Tesla is saying.

... and a possible 400-mile Model 3 would wait for a future model year.

That was just my speculation, but it is an actually possibility. At least if it is as some here speculate that Tesla not will allow Model 3 to have a better range then the Gen-II cars, even for a few month. But I'm not so sure about that.

... and yes, I agree that you in that case would have been able to use your car for a year or so (+/-) before the new and better battery is available.

 

[daniel]

A person can't be 100% sure. Mathematically impossible.

Thank you kindly.

You neglect to consider the irrationality of the human mind. Humans can believe two mutually exclusive things. Mathematically, such things cannot both be true, but people believe them all the time. A rational person cannot be 100% sure of anything, but there are few if any rational people in the world. In the field of religion, e.g., many believers are 100% sure of the "truth" of their beliefs, even though they cannot all be right, since their beliefs often include the belief that the others are wrong.

Certainty is not a mathematical object. Certainty is a state of mind, and the mind is a complex, convoluted, and irrational biological mechanism. A wise person recognizes that certainty is a treacherous thing, but wisdom is in short supply, as demonstrated by the conduct of human affairs throughout history and continuing to this day.

 

[Topher]

You neglect to consider the irrationality of the human mind.

No I don't. I person can be wrong about being 100% sure, just as they can be wrong about having x-ray vision. It doesn't make the x-ray vision nor the surety real. We know what it would take for a person to have x-ray vision, just as we know what it would take for a person to be 100% sure. Those requisites don't exist in humans.

Thank you kindly.

 

[S3XY]

A person can't be 100% sure. Mathematically impossible.

Thank you kindly.

Well, I'm 100% sure that this isn't true. I'm also 100% sure of my name and that 2+2=4.