Model 3 lifespan?

[Msjulie]

Curious....what can one do with that laptop these days?

Ok it's probably not 24 years old but it's close - it's an old Toshiba which runs a CNC (DOS) program to drive a CNC machine my dad made and it all works perfect. There are the challenges of getting the files from his 2015 Macbook, where he creates the coding files, to the old thing but amazingly enough it fires up and runs just fine.

For the dozen or wooden signs he makes (hobby) in a year, nothing else is needed. At this point, it's almost a challenge to see how long it will go...

Outside the communications bits, one would hope the drive components and controllers would have a good long life.. doubtful the 60+ years or so of the Porsche 356 coupe I saw yesterday but hopefully more than a modern smart phone dumped in just a couple

 

[StealthP3D]

As we all know, when people have issues they yell the loudest. That does not make it a scientific survey - far from it.

Not only do people with problems yell the loudest, but forums like this are also guilty of amplifying issues in two primary ways:

1) People with an issue are far more likely to go to a forum than the multitudes without the issue.

2) These forums have literally thousands of low post count aliases who are fake Tesla owners. Sure, the forum owners try to delete fake accounts but they have to identify them first which can be a daunting task. These aliases are created by troll farms whose goal is to dissuade Tesla purchases by curious potential Tesla buyers who are browsing the forums prior to purchase. Because privacy is such a big deal these days, it's very difficult to very that people are who they say they are. Also, there may not be much incentive to delete suspect accounts when more accounts equal more advertising revenue.

As I type this, I am looking at a Toyota ad to win a free "Western Washington ROAD TRIP". I live in Western Washington. The right side of the ad says "Click to get a free trade-in value now!". This ad tells me a number of things;

A) Toyota knows they compete with Tesla for purchasers of new vehicles and they are targeting people specifically interested in a new Tesla. This makes sense because Toyota is popular with buyers looking for reliable vehicles with low servicing costs.

B) Toyota targets its advertising dollars in a sophisticated manner, customizing the ad to be most effective for each state of the country.

C) Toyota finds it useful to spend considerable money advertising dollars on a Tesla forum because they know people visit Tesla forums before they purchase a Tesla.

D) Advertising on a Tesla forum works and is worth the money they spend on it (or they wouldn't bother).

I hope the owners of this site don't take offense at me for pointing out what should be plainly obvious or think I'm criticizing them for taking money from Toyota, a company trying to prevent you from buying a Tesla, because I recognize it costs real time and money to run a site like this and that money needs to come from somewhere. I certainly don't expect it to come from the pockets of the site owners out of the goodness of their hearts.

Rather, my point is, Toyota, and other companies, know that people visit auto forums before deciding who to give their money to. It doesn't take many negative stories to create a negative impression in the minds of unsophisticated buyers of a brand. That is all it takes to convert a Tesla sale into a Toyota sale (for example). Giving a potential new car buyer a negative feeling about a competitor is more valuable than all the positive advertising money can buy. Because that consumer is going to buy a car, it's just a matter of which car it's going to support.

Talk of EV's running on coal, batteries requiring toxic mining, Tesla's being shoddily built or having a short lifespan all play into the hands of traditional automakers, suppliers for traditional automakers, dealerships of traditional automakers and those with a stake in the continuing demand for oil and gas. These competing interests recognize this fact and don't stop at the little ad banners you see at the top and bottom of every page. These competing interests would have to be more principled than they are to stay out of the body of the forums because negative advertising is even more effective than positive advertising. This is how real issues that are not endemic to the Model 3 are amplified to make them appear endemic. You can identify who these people are because they will often try to transfer the faults of early Model S Tesla's to Model 3, a car that is a new clean-sheet design that shares almost nothing with the Model S. In fact, Tesla is now upgrading the Model S and X with technology originally deployed in the Model 3.

 

[StealthP3D]

I’m all for saving the planet but whether I drive my Model 3 for the next 25 years or I drive it five years and then sell it to someone else who drives it for its remaining useful life I’m not sure how the planet would be any worse off. By keeping it for 25 years I’m preventing someone else from being able to enjoy it and possibly forcing them to have to buy a new one by making my used one unavailable.

Exactly! The used car market is HUGE and plenty of people are waiting for "affordable" Teslas. I'm looking forward to seeing old Model 3's on the road after they have become "road warriors". Yes, like all cars they will eventually be perforated by rust, have multiple scratches, dents and other warts, their range might be 75% of new but they will still be relatively quick, silent and efficient.

A new version of "Mad Max" will emerge, one where the future won't be as dark and foreboding. Instead of people driving old V-8's and fighting for the products produced by crude refineries, people will be cruising around in silent EV's and charging them from solar panels during the middle of the day while they rest their bodies in the shade of the unrelenting sun. Personally, I think every parking lot should be shaded by solar panels like this:

This last one is an artists rendition of a plan for parking at Tuscan's airport. I think they could work on increasing the percentage of cover but the design is interesting to me because it looks like it might be designed to have a small robot on tracks continuously and slowly cruising along the tracks and polishing the surface clean to keep production high.

The future is coming but powerful and disgusting interests are actively working to slow it down while continuously complaining about government incentives for solar. It's time to talk about all the incentives we continue to give to oil companies. This is rarely mentioned but oil is the most subsidized industry on the face of the earth. In a society that is portrayed as being intelligent, it's inexcusable.

 

[ammulder]

It may be that a new network standard will come out that is incompatible with our current software and and at point we will lose internet access.

Yeah, this is the sort of thing I'd most worry about. 2G networks are being retired, and today's 2G coverage is nothing like it once was. How long until 4G coverage is retired, and none of the current Teslas can get online any more? Hopefully a while, but I'd think sooner than 20 years. Sure, the cars will still drive fine, but if the navigation doesn't work and the app can't connect to the car unless it's on WiFi, that'll sting.

I'm sure the computers will keep changing. In a decade we might expect the state of the art to be what? I have to think it'll be cheaper to use a relatively current part instead of keeping a whole fab around to print 10yo parts. At some point, the AP/FSD/Easter Egg programmers will all move on to platforms that take advantage of the latest and greatest chips and features, and it will be way too much hassle to support 7 generations of computer hardware going back 10 or 20 years, so I expect the oldest platforms to stop getting regular updates.

So hopefully if these kind of things happen, we can get the parts replaced with more current ones (as with, we expect, HW3). At some cost, but if it "makes the experience new again" it will presumably be worth it. So long as there's a way to keep it current, I'll be happy.

For what it's worth, my 20yo Lexus had plenty of issues other than the engine/transmission. The AC leaked coolant so it needed either a big-bucks fix or way more frequent refills than a new car. Once a leak onto the alternator caused it to fail -- not that a Tesla needs an alternator, but there are still fluids and I assume something could still leak onto electronics and cause problems. I had various suspension problems, the ABS sensors got worn down to the point that the ABS kicked in at the wrong times, once they said an engine mount was going bad, and so on. I don't expect a Tesla to be completely immune to maintenance.

I will say I was shocked by whoever said that a handful of repairs on the long-term car cost $18K. I was grudgingly used to paying $2K/year at inspection time to keep the Lexus going, but if a Tesla fix runs $6K or $10K a pop, even if less frequent there will be a bit of sticker shock.

 

[ecarfan]

Moderator note: several posts sent to snippiness because of rudeness.

On TMC civility is not an option, it is a requirement. Thank you.

 

[timk225]

.

Model 3 is already nearly three years old.

Where did you learn to math? The oldest 3's are 1-1/2 years old except for the very few that got out in 2017.

 

[alexGS]

Where did you learn to math? The oldest 3's are 1-1/2 years old except for the very few that got out in 2017.

I meant the design age, obviously not the age of individual vehicles (as you can buy a new one today). Reservations for the Model 3 started in 2016, so that’s when the design was ‘new’. Referring to the thread title, I think the lifespan of the model (before it is replaced by a new model) will be measured from 2016 through to when the replacement model is announced. Somewhere between five and ten years, I reckon.

-Alex

 

[Hiline]

I also tend to think model 3 as a computer with parts. After say 3 years, on can upgrade CUP/RAM (MCU/FSD), then add better suspension like RAM, and other items. (Comparison is not a good analogy) I kept my last car for 11 years and now average car is about 12 years old The average age of cars on America's roads went up again, report says - Roadshow since i guess car prices are going up compared to income (completely different topic). So i expect Model 3 to last me about a decade. Hopefully most expensive parts will be tires.

This is an interesting thought. Do we know which computer components for a Model 3 are replaceable?

 

[dmurphy]

This is an interesting thought. Do we know which computer components for a Model 3 are replaceable?

All of them. It just depends how deep you want to go to do it. Some components easier than others.

But both the two main computers (Autopilot and Infotainment) are easily replaced. In fact, they are sandwiched into a single unit. And even more to the point, Tesla’s already done one swap program for early FSD purchasers.