Model 3 lifespan?

[MrBadger]

Genuine question, but some may not like me asking depending on the reality...

Too early to have anything specific on the table, but a number of threads such as Model 3 vs Civic and other sources is making me think about long term ownership of Tesla vehicles, in particular Model 3 that I have on order.

I normally keep my cars for a very long time. The family car that Model 3 is replacing is 12+ years old, and still young at 150k miles apart from couple of springs, 12v battery, fuel pump, fuel injectors [recall], parking sensor [warranty but recurring theme], lazy air con and proper servicing. My previous car was 14+ years old and apart from a 12v battery, blocked windscreen washer and frayed brake light wire, didn't need anything doing to it other than the scheduled services. I am sure that my current car will not fare so well, but thats another story.

So in general, cars are getting more complex and reliant on non user serviceable parts. Long gone are the days of me doing 100% of the work needed to keep car on road, including full mechanical rebuilds and quite a bit of body work - welding never up to much...

Based upon real world experiences with older models, service trips etc rather than car is designed to last 1 million miles (which is very different to lasting 200k miles and 20 years), what are peoples thoughts on expecting a Model 3 to still being a usable car by the time it gets to 15 years old? Yes, mechanically it should be relatively simple compared to a more traditional car and I'm fairly confident on battery. But on other hand, so much relies on tech and Tesla themselves.

Stories of cars becoming unrepairable/scrap due to replacement electronic parts not being available not long after it runs out of warranty does not fill me with optimism. But my options are limited in the 300+ mile BEV category. Outright purchase, rather than lease etc. so we don't have the option on swapping every 3 or 4 years.

 

[brkaus]

I’m not worried about a 15 year model 3. Sure, things will fail. There are enough on the road that used parts will be available and there is already a small community that is repairing / modifying the electronics side. I can only assume that will continue to grow.

Not much different from other brands these days. BMW requires a computer to pair a new 12v battery for example.

 

[YusufT]

Like any other car, the older and more milage it gets the more issues with start to pop up. No one can tell you for Model 3 specifically how reliable the car is that far out because it’s a new model. However, there’s an X that has a *sugar* ton of miles on it and only maintenance it needed was a replacement of left and right axle shaft at 215k miles and rear brakes at 260k and spent a total of $18k (should be cheaper for Model 3)

Link:350,000 Miles In A Tesla Model X = Just $18,000 In Maintenance!! | CleanTechnica

Electric vehicles have less parts to maintain (less moving parts than an ICE), and I believe Model 3 will do much better than the X with higher milage so I think you’re good to go.

 

[MrBadger]

In UK, we probably do not have quite the same communities as in US. My excellent local mechanic would certainly have access to the sort of stuff that would be needed to diagnose and service a BMW. But he might not have with a Tesla - other thread going on about lack of service manuals which whilst were available online, I don't know what sort of access to diagnostic info he would have? Obviously talking 4 years down the line when car out of warranty.

 

[YusufT]

In UK, we probably do not have quite the same communities as in US. My excellent local mechanic would certainly have access to the sort of stuff that would be needed to diagnose and service a BMW. But he might not have with a Tesla - other thread going on about lack of service manuals which whilst were available online, I don't know what sort of access to diagnostic info he would have? Obviously talking 4 years down the line when car out of warranty.

Tesla has a DIY page Do It Yourself - Model 3

There are Tesla approved shops you can take it to I believe and I’m sure they will expand the numbers in a couple years.

I believe electric cars are the best for that long of ownership. Less maintainable and gas savings for all those years!

 

[MrBadger]

Thanks for the link. Unfortunately here in UK, after a few seconds it gets redirected to a far less useful set of GB orientated links... But good to hear that some of the info is there even now. Early days for Model 3 in UK.

 

[alexGS]

I think this is like asking “how long does an iPhone last?”

If you bought an iPhone 6 in 2014, resisted the temptation to buy the 6S in 2015, weren’t impressed enough to buy the 7 in 2016, and finally bought the X in 2017, you then put a new battery in the 6 and sold it. The life for you was three years. The next guy might get another year out of it before they drop it, break the screen, and can’t be bothered.

Model 3 is already nearly three years old. There will be cheaper versions on the market once the Chinese factory gets underway, and there’s the Model Y on the horizon. Let’s expect a life of three years and then you can move on to something better... just like with the iPhone

BTW my Model 3 is scheduled to arrive in August. I’d like the service manual for help with ripping apart the car in October, probably to solve some irritating rattle or fit sound-deadening etc. - but who really knows.

I had a gorgeous 16-year-old Alfa Romeo Gtv that I lovingly cared for, polished the original paintwork to perfection, replaced the faded badges, changed the bump stops and gear oil, stainless steel exhaust, rechromed the engine’s inlet pipes, under 50,000km/30,000 miles on the clock, it was like new. One day someone drove through a stop-sign at speed, hit my Gtv and wrote the car off (it would cost three times its value to repair; insurance cheerfully paid the trivial market value; no repair shop would touch it). Couldn’t buy another for the price; nothing available. Big argument on what ‘market value’ means. It’s the reality of cars these days. I learned never to become too attached to them... now I see them as a temporary appliance.

-Alex

 

[StealthP3D]

Think of the value of a fossil car today that's 15 years old with 225,000-250,000 miles. By this time it's probably getting 15% less MPG, it's polluting more, it might have a little exhaust leaking into the cabin, it might leave a little drip of oil where it's parked (those oil spots are not from new cars), the engine is probably not as quiet or as powerful as it was when new, and it can leave you stranded at any moment even if it had been mostly reliable for the last 15 years. It's probably worth less than $2,000 in today's world and, 15 years down the road, might very well be more of a liability than an asset (zero value).

A Model 3 with 225,000 miles might have had one brake job and needed the shock absorbers (dampers) replaced once but it will still be clean, quiet and smooth with excellent efficiency. There will be no danger of carbon monoxide seeping into the cabin, you will not smell the sweet, sticky smell of antifreeze when you turn on the heater and it will not be leaving drips of motor oil wherever you park it. I guarantee it will be worth a lot more than a 15-year-old fossil car.

 

[alexGS]

A Model 3 with 225,000 miles might have had one brake job and needed the shock absorbers (dampers) replaced once but it will still be clean, quiet and smooth with excellent efficiency. There will be no danger of carbon monoxide seeping into the cabin, you will not smell the sweet, sticky smell of antifreeze when you turn on the heater and it will not be leaving drips of motor oil wherever you park it. I guarantee it will be worth a lot more than a 15-year-old fossil car.

I want to agree with this too - hopefully we can also add “being a now-rare example of one of Tesla’s early models”...

I suppose what’s daunting is that there are so many unknowns at this stage - we really need to revisit this thought at the five and ten year mark to see how things are tracking. For example, if rectifier/inverter packs start dropping like flies, it might become a whole new ballgame for aftermarket repairs (“is your car still on the original inverter? Better get that changed before it lets you down somewhere...”) I think Tesla are offering an 8-year powertrain warranty, which is reassuring.

Your “15-yr-old 225,000 mile fossil car” example was an interesting contrast. My 16-yr-old 30,000 mile car was basically a Concours example pampered all its life and only driven in the dry etc.; but ultimately, less than 25 years old and therefore not seen as a classic by many. And worth so little, despite everything working perfectly. If only it had survived a few more years. If only I hadn’t driven it that day for the first time in weeks...

I’m buying my Model 3 to use every day and I’d wager that most examples will be. Hence, your comparison with a 225,000 mile car is perfectly valid. It will be interesting to see how it turns out.

-Alex

 

[ewoodrick]

I believe that Elon indicated a few months back that the battery/car was trending at around 300,000 miles. But seemed to indicate that the Model Y would, like the Semi, hit closer to 1,000,000 miles useful life.

 

[OCR1]

I won’t be driving my Model 3 in fifteen years. Technology changes too rapidly and I will want to drive a car with the latest technology well before then. The Model 3 is a computer on wheels. Who is still using a fifteen year old computer?

 

[DJVoorhees]

I too keep my cars forever. My model 3 is replacing a 2002 Chevy Avalanche when my trans started giving me trouble at 190k miles. I'm going to replace the trans on the Avalanche because I still want/need a truck.

My wife and I were talking just last night - I was telling her the model 3 is likely a 3-5 year car tops for us in my opinion. As the electronics start going, and they will - the car will be very expensive to fix out of warranty.

Just my opinion, eventually Tesla will also stop updating the cars and go to a planned obsolescence model, like a clothes dryer or television. Look at the older model S's with their flash drive/MCU issues. 3-5k to replace out of warranty and they WILL ALL go bad eventually, there is no way a flash storage unit will last more than 5-6 years if you drive the car even a moderate amount, this is not disputable.

I understood this when buying my Model 3 so I'm not complaining, just conversing.

 

[OCR1]

There is a TMC member selling his used Model S for parts because he has determined that he can get more money by taking it apart and selling individual parts of the car than anyone would pay for an older high mileage S as a whole car.

 

[DJVoorhees]

There is a TMC member selling his used Model S for parts because he has determined that he can get more money by taking it apart and selling individual parts of the car than anyone would pay for an older high mileage S as a whole car.

Wow - really? The S's are still pulling in some decent money on EBAY, at least 30-35k. I'd be shocked if parting it out was worth that much, especially considering time and effort, shipping, etc etc.

 

[MrBadger]

Totally disagree with the analogy.

A car should get you from A to B reliably and safely. A to B today is the same as A to B was 50 years and will be in 15 years time.

A computer should allow you to do task A reliably and in a timely manner. The problem is task A 15 years ago was completely different to task A now and we have no idea what it will be in 15 years time. But yes. I have a 8 year old Mac that performs the complex tasks I set it now just as well as it performed the same complex tasks 8 years ago.

Changing cars like people change their phones or computers is part of the reason why this planet is in the mess it is in the first place. I had hoped that BEV’s would be a good thing meaning they would last longer. But sounds like they may just be seen like the throw away items that already blight this world.

My attitude may go against consumerism, but it will allow consumers to consume for longer. Not sure if people will be bothered to help save the planet for the younger generations if it’s not going to do any good. Yes, my generation and earlier were part of the problem, but many got wise and want to sort out the mess we got ourselves into. Hence, finally being in the position to get a BEV to replace our main car.

 

[tashtibet]

my TM3 is 1 year & 1 month old and my cost so far is $ 0, my company has free charging & tire rotations are free= I never had experience like this owning any car. Moreover, ICE vehicles are completely rip off!

 

[DJVoorhees]

My attitude may go against consumerism, but it will allow consumers to consume for longer. Not sure if people will be bothered to help save the planet for the younger generations if it’s not going to do any good. Yes, my generation and earlier were part of the problem, but many got wise and want to sort out the mess we got ourselves into. Hence, finally being in the position to get a BEV to replace our main car.

Tesla's and EV don't save anything and in reality the US and Europe cant either. Ever see the way India, Asia, and Latin America are polluting the planet in a wholesale manner, no way we can offset that with EV's. With that said, it sounds like you like the idea of not burning gasoline to get where you want to go, which is valid and a great thing - I like it too.

Also - please realize that computer components generally have a life span of years, not decades - these cars are basically giant computers.

 

[insaneoctane]

I sure hope these cars last.... I've put almost 30K miles in 13 months of ownership and I don't see that slowing down! I would like this car to last me 10 years like my last 3 cars did....

 

[StealthP3D]

WoW! A lot of anti-EV interests posting here today. They infiltrate every corner of the Internet with their anti-EV nonsense. Don't be fooled by their negative and misleading comments. Their job is to create Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt about upgrading from fossil fuel cars (and all their related expenses) to cleaner, more sustainable EV's.

Study after study has proven beyond any reasonable doubt that EV's are more sustainable and cleaner (and they are viable today). I know, I have two of them and would never go back to old gasoline cars. Electric cars are more reliable, better for health and the environment, more fun to drive and they don't blow toxic gasses in your face and in your garage.

Ignore all the FUD. These are the representatives of dinosaurs with oil interests. Old people who want more of your money. Car dealerships who want to change your oil, replace your transmission fluid, and generally rip you off. Oil companies who want to keep pumping the black gold out of the ground to make them wealthy.

 

[StealthP3D]

Also - please realize that computer components generally have a life span of years, not decades - these cars are basically giant computers.

BS - I still boot up my 24-year-old American made laptop from time to time and it's never needed ANY service or repair. Every modern car has multiple computers in it that are required for the car to do anything. If what you said were true, even fossil cars would be complete junk in 10 years. Solid state is very reliable. That's why we migrated to it from vacuum tubes. If high-quality electronic, solid-state components make it through the initial factory burn-in, 99.9% of them will continue to work perfectly for decades.