Model 3 - LR AWD Waiting Room

[jaschrbob]

TLDR; Not all orders are created equally. The list of base configuration orders takes longer to get through than the list of upgraded configuration orders. East coast orders go out at the beginning of the quarter, and west coast orders go out at the end. When watching people get VINs, it's important to keep this stuff in mind so that you're comparing apples to apples.



Everyone should keep in mind that there are two configuration categories; base and upgraded. Today's base order EDD is November 2022 to February 2023 (120-210 days) while the upgraded order EDD is September 2022 to December 2022 (60-180 days).

Compare that to the deliveries today, which were ordered roughly 100 days ago for base configurations and 80 for upgraded configurations. The gap in delivery times between categories is only going to grow, assuming Tesla is at all accurate with their ballpark numbers at time of order. They know how many cars they can make, and how many orders they have, so it should be a pretty straightforward process.

Folks should also keep in mind that there are two delivery waves coming out of Fremont; east coast and west coast. East coast is batched up in big rail shipments that go to Chicago, Illinois and Birmingham, Alabama during the first two months of a quarter. From there, they're delivered on trucks. West coast is put straight onto trucks from the factory during the final month of a quarter. East coast goes out first because of the big logistical headache while west coast goes out at the end of the quarter to pack in as many quick deliveries as possible.

So where am I going with this? When watching activity here about VIN assignment and vehicle deliveries, you have to compare both your category of configuration as well as your location in the country.

If you're on the west coast with a base configuration order and see someone on the east coast with a base configuration order that was placed on the same day you ordered, you can hope to see a VIN at the end of that quarter. Right? East coast at the beginning of the quarter, then west coast at the end, with orders being processed more or less in sequence for the same category of configuration.

If you're on the west coast with a base configuration order and see someone with your order date but with an upgraded configuration getting a VIN at the end of the quarter, what should you expect? To be delayed to the end of the following quarter. Your order didn't make the cut for the current quarter because they only got as far as the upgraded configurations. Your order will go out in the next batch of base configurations for the west coast.

A final disclaimer here. There are lots of exceptions, but the great majority of orders do follow these 'rules'. Here are some exception scenarios:

Cars may arrive at a destination and not get delivered to the customer for one reason or another. Tesla will try to find someone who wants that car, which might grant a VIN out of the blue to someone nearby, despite the fact that the person might only have been waiting a short time.

Cars may get delivered to west coast destinations at the beginning of the quarter simply because the stars aligned. Tesla can always make a delivery to the west coast. It's the east coast that's the big logistical nightmare.

Cars may get delivered to someone with a base configuration in advance of other orders because the stars aligned a different way. Tesla may want to fill a truck going to Mt. Kisco New York and they've got a spot open. They could put an upgraded order on the truck or they could put a base order for someone who has been waiting a much longer time. So they fill that one base configuration order to include it in the shipment and fill out the truck. Wham. Some lucky person in Mt. Kisco gets a VIN while everyone else with base configuration orders on the same day is left scratching their heads why they didn't get one.

Thanks for the info

JB47394​

...do you consider AZ west coast in these scenarios?

​

 

[ColoradoMike]

Well after seeing lots of people get deliveries on orders that were placed later than mine, I was hopeful that I'd have a VIN assigned soon since my DD was 7/2-8/6...
Didn't happen, woke up this morning to another pushback of the delivery date. Now it's 7/18-8/16. What's up with this system of order fulfillment? I guess I understand the CA push at end of quarter for quick deliveries and padding the numbers, but this seems to go beyond that...
Any thoughts?

M3LR/MSM/BLACK/AERO/NO FSD, OD 3/20/22, ODD 6/9-7/25, DD2 6/11-7/18, DD3 7/18-8/29, DD4 7/2-8/6, DD5 7/18-8/16
Chandler, AZ

@jaschrbob we have similar order dates and the exact same config. My OD was 3/26. I trimmed my signature down but at one point in time I got slipped to Aug 27-Oct 22 but that I believe is a "glitch" that sometimes happens. My initial EDD was Jul 9-Aug 20 and it is pretty close to what I have now.

The explanation that @JB47394 is pretty much what I thought and have read here.

We just have to be patient.

On a side note, spent 10 hours yesterday installing the Tesla Wall charger. What a royal pain in the butt! Not the wall charger itself but the way I had to run it as cleanly as possible in my garage. With the help of my neighbor we managed to get the 6/3 romex where it needed to be. Long story for another day but all in all I am happy.

Yes, I will hear the comments....we elected to go with the wall charger and yes I know it would have been easier to run separate strands, but I already had a 50' coil of 6/3 romex so we went with that. HOWEVER, in retrospect (slaps forehead) we could have saved a ton of time by doing it another way.

Its all good though because both my neighbor and I love doing projects!

 

[7BaconTacos]

Graduated yesterday! Was supposed to pick up Monday, but got delayed due to logistics issues. Took delivery 12 days after switching from LR to P. Car didn't ride as rough as I thought it would, so it's a win. Will probably still end up going to 18 or 19 inch set-up because these tires are a liability waiting to happen. Wife was nauseous after the first launch, then made me go to IKEA, where I got nauseous.

Nice!
We love making excuses to go out to ikea. Its hard to justify most of the time though. Would be nice if they put one in closer than Schaumburg. Did you use the chargers they have there? If you didnt know they have a bank of Chargepoint chargers on the right side of the building. Not free but its still nice to have as an option.

Also if you are going to get tint done, I am getting mine done at Fade to Black out in Crown Point and will be ready for pickup on Saturday. I will report back with my experience. He quoted $625 for 20% front/back/sides in ceramic. Back is all one piece.

 

[jaschrbob]

@jaschrbob we have similar order dates and the exact same config. My OD was 3/26. I trimmed my signature down but at one point in time I got slipped to Aug 27-Oct 22 but that I believe is a "glitch" that sometimes happens. My initial EDD was Jul 9-Aug 20 and it is pretty close to what I have now.

The explanation that @JB47394 is pretty much what I thought and have read here.

We just have to be patient.

On a side note, spent 10 hours yesterday installing the Tesla Wall charger. What a royal pain in the butt! Not the wall charger itself but the way I had to run it as cleanly as possible in my garage. With the help of my neighbor we managed to get the 6/3 romex where it needed to be. Long story for another day but all in all I am happy.

Yes, I will hear the comments....we elected to go with the wall charger and yes I know it would have been easier to run separate strands, but I already had a 50' coil of 6/3 romex so we went with that. HOWEVER, in retrospect (slaps forehead) we could have saved a ton of time by doing it another way.

Its all good though because both my neighbor and I love doing projects!

ColoradoMike GO AV'S! I'm originally from CO (first 33 years) and my sons and grandkids are still there, my family had season tickets from 1995-1996 season thru 2005, so we got so see some great hockey. Glad they are back!
My ODD 6/9-7/25 so I'm firmly in that and I hope that this mornings push out is just temporary...
Good luck!

 

[dgoodlan]

Nice!
We love making excuses to go out to ikea. Its hard to justify most of the time though. Would be nice if they put one in closer than Schaumburg. Did you use the chargers they have there? If you didnt know they have a bank of Chargepoint chargers on the right side of the building. Not free but its still nice to have as an option.

Also if you are going to get tint done, I am getting mine done at Fade to Black out in Crown Point and will be ready for pickup on Saturday. I will report back with my experience. He quoted $625 for 20% front/back/sides in ceramic. Back is all one piece.

I did see the chargers but was still pretty much fully charged so I passed. It is nice that so many places in that area are equipped with ev charging.

That's where I have gotten my cars tinted at, I love them. Definitely let me know how the experience goes with the Tesla! I am hoping to schedule mine for next week or the week following!

 

[gators918]

Final payment can only be made in the app by ACH transfer by linking your bank account with Plaid, you can’t charge it to a card. Otherwise you can bring a cashiers check to delivery day or some might accept a personal check depending on amount. Ask the delivery team at your local pickup location to confirm.

How do you get free charging?

TLDR; Not all orders are created equally. The list of base configuration orders takes longer to get through than the list of upgraded configuration orders. East coast orders go out at the beginning of the quarter, and west coast orders go out at the end. When watching people get VINs, it's important to keep this stuff in mind so that you're comparing apples to apples.



Everyone should keep in mind that there are two configuration categories; base and upgraded. Today's base order EDD is November 2022 to February 2023 (120-210 days) while the upgraded order EDD is September 2022 to December 2022 (60-180 days).

Compare that to the deliveries today, which were ordered roughly 100 days ago for base configurations and 80 for upgraded configurations. The gap in delivery times between categories is only going to grow, assuming Tesla is at all accurate with their ballpark numbers at time of order. They know how many cars they can make, and how many orders they have, so it should be a pretty straightforward process.

Folks should also keep in mind that there are two delivery waves coming out of Fremont; east coast and west coast. East coast is batched up in big rail shipments that go to Chicago, Illinois and Birmingham, Alabama during the first two months of a quarter. From there, they're delivered on trucks. West coast is put straight onto trucks from the factory during the final month of a quarter. East coast goes out first because of the big logistical headache while west coast goes out at the end of the quarter to pack in as many quick deliveries as possible.

So where am I going with this? When watching activity here about VIN assignment and vehicle deliveries, you have to compare both your category of configuration as well as your location in the country.

If you're on the west coast with a base configuration order and see someone on the east coast with a base configuration order that was placed on the same day you ordered, you can hope to see a VIN at the end of that quarter. Right? East coast at the beginning of the quarter, then west coast at the end, with orders being processed more or less in sequence for the same category of configuration.

If you're on the west coast with a base configuration order and see someone with your order date but with an upgraded configuration getting a VIN at the end of the quarter, what should you expect? To be delayed to the end of the following quarter. Your order didn't make the cut for the current quarter because they only got as far as the upgraded configurations. Your order will go out in the next batch of base configurations for the west coast.

A final disclaimer here. There are lots of exceptions, but the great majority of orders do follow these 'rules'. Here are some exception scenarios:

Cars may arrive at a destination and not get delivered to the customer for one reason or another. Tesla will try to find someone who wants that car, which might grant a VIN out of the blue to someone nearby, despite the fact that the person might only have been waiting a short time.

Cars may get delivered to west coast destinations at the beginning of the quarter simply because the stars aligned. Tesla can always make a delivery to the west coast. It's the east coast that's the big logistical nightmare.

Cars may get delivered to someone with a base configuration in advance of other orders because the stars aligned a different way. Tesla may want to fill a truck going to Mt. Kisco New York and they've got a spot open. They could put an upgraded order on the truck or they could put a base order for someone who has been waiting a much longer time. So they fill that one base configuration order to include it in the shipment and fill out the truck. Wham. Some lucky person in Mt. Kisco gets a VIN while everyone else with base configuration orders on the same day is left scratching their heads why they didn't get one.

JB, Thanks for taking the time to share such a detailed report of EDD's. Patiently waiting on the east coast!

 

[JB47394]

...do you consider AZ west coast in these scenarios?

Yes. If a location is closer by truck to Fremont than it is to Chicago, Illinois or Birmingham, Alabama, then it will receive deliveries direct from Fremont, making it "west coast". I did some scatter plots of data a while back and in those I defined west coast as CA, WA, OR, NV, AZ, ID, MT, WY, CO, and NM.

 

[ColoradoMike]

ColoradoMike GO AV'S! I'm originally from CO (first 33 years) and my sons and grandkids are still there, my family had season tickets from 1995-1996 season thru 2005, so we got so see some great hockey. Glad they are back!
My ODD 6/9-7/25 so I'm firmly in that and I hope that this mornings push out is just temporary...
Good luck!

Awesome! I am a transplant....MASSHOLE on my end but happened to attend a "school for wayward boys" back in the 80s up against the mountains in COS. LOL!

I have had season tix for the Falcons for years but when COVID happened I canceled. Not a big deal but COLLEGE hockey is incredible here in Colorado between the CC TIGERS, USAFA FALCONS, and the EVIL DU PIONEERS.....very fun!

Lets see how our our deliveries happen!

I declined one back in May. It was a "one off" where a customer declined the delivery and I was next in line. Not a great experience. I believe that when our VIN comes up we should be good to go. Just pay close attention to things....take a look at what I experienced in May. Not a big deal but pay attention to the small/not so small things....

Model 3 - LR AWD Waiting Room

Yes! If you’ve considered AB you need AB. It makes this car as fast as the RWD R8 that’s $150k. That’s fast. Think I might do it myself right when I get the car so I can tell the wife it was part of the purchase ;)

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Patrick Jarin]

You and Patrick Jarin make me less optimistic to get my delivery date earlier than my EDD. Heres hoping I get lucky. I believe we have the exact same cars. My EDD has only moved once though to what it currently is, august 13th to sep 17th. I had another EDD before but I don't remember what it was, just like a week later.

Well nothing has changed for me as of today. I am expecting 120 days or more before I get my car. I’m pretty sure I will get another push back once I get a little closer to my EDD

 

[Mythbredor]

Well nothing has changed for me as of today. I am expecting 120 days or more before I get my car. I’m pretty sure I will get another push back once I get a little closer to my EDD

I'll be rooting for you. In the mean time I'm trying to find somewhere in NC to get my M3 tinted when I get it... eventually. Some places are quoting 1000-1100 which is way too much.

 

[Andrometer4]

Awesome! I am a transplant....MASSHOLE on my end but happened to attend a "school for wayward boys" back in the 80s up against the mountains in COS. LOL!

I have had season tix for the Falcons for years but when COVID happened I canceled. Not a big deal but COLLEGE hockey is incredible here in Colorado between the CC TIGERS, USAFA FALCONS, and the EVIL DU PIONEERS.....very fun!

Lets see how our our deliveries happen!

I declined one back in May. It was a "one off" where a customer declined the delivery and I was next in line. Not a great experience. I believe that when our VIN comes up we should be good to go. Just pay close attention to things....take a look at what I experienced in May. Not a big deal but pay attention to the small/not so small things....

Model 3 - LR AWD Waiting Room

Yes! If you’ve considered AB you need AB. It makes this car as fast as the RWD R8 that’s $150k. That’s fast. Think I might do it myself right when I get the car so I can tell the wife it was part of the purchase ;)

teslamotorsclub.com

Wow! I just looked at your pics from the declined delivery. Who the hell painted that one? Almost enough to make me re-consider my choice of color.

 

[jpaychek]

Graduation Day! Actually yesterday, but I'm glad it is over with. 103 days OD to DD. VIN 2781xx. Matrix, Michelin, mobile connector with NEMA 5-15 plug and J1772 adapter. 7 miles on the odometer. My experience was good, no issues. The location was not very busy, only a few people ahead of me. It is a small parking lot and there were maybe 15-20 vehicles awaiting delivery. A mixture of Model Y's and 3's. Saw a Model S Plaid which was probably an employee car. Took my checklists but ended up only using my eyes to look for anything that stood out. What appeared to be scratches on the front left turn signal lens cover turned out to be dried glue from a protective covering and was cleaned by a detail guy. The SA was helpful and since I told him I was familiar with the setup, he basically left me to my own devices. Spent a fairly long time Creating profiles, updating Control settings, installing my cupholder insert, armrest and console trays, etc.

Bought the keyfob prior to delivery, but the SA and I were unable to authenticate it to the car at the time. I was able to do it when I got home. It works perfectly to unlock/lock car, open frunk and open/close trunk. Also bought a silicone fob pocket that securely holds and protects the fob. Has imprinted buttons that make it easy to identify the functions. Included pics of Tuxmat floor mats I bought and the keyfob holder. The floor mats have a lot of coverage and provide a premium look, I think. They are expensive, but I wanted to splurge and get good quality.

Comfortable seats and the autopilot calibrated after maybe 20 minutes. I also felt the light vibration in the steering wheel for lane assist when getting too close to the lane markers. Smooth ride on smooth highway portions, but definitely a firm ride over bumps, small potholes, rough roadways. Tight steering in Standard mode. Note: I saw the AB (Acceleration Boost) in the upgrade portion of the app and considered it but will wait until I get tired of the already rocket acceleration. Can't justify 2K right now, but down the road...

Using wall charger at home is great. Took an hour to charge 63 miles driven. Out of curiosity, I left the car unplugged overnight to see how much battery drain and it lost 9 miles (4%) out of 286 miles when charged to 80%. I had left Sentry Mode on and some other items, so I will play around with setting to maximize drainage, but plan to keep the car plugged in when not in use.

I also took off the Aero covers and installed Tesla's Wheel Cap Kit 2.0. I know they will take a bit of a hit on mileage, but I like the look so far and will change back to Aero's for longer trips.

All in all, a joy to drive and absolutely worth the wait! I would not have had the knowledge or confidence to be able to arrive at the SC, assess the condition, create and adjust the settings and feel very comfortable about the entire process without all of the help, insight and guidance from each of you on this forum. Special thanks to the "senior members" who were there before me and had already "been there, done that". Of course, I'll stick around to answer any questions and provide support as I am able. Hang in there, you will be glad you did!

 

[ColoradoMike]

Wow! I just looked at your pics from the declined delivery. Who the hell painted that one? Almost enough to make me re-consider my choice of color.

Tesla.

I don't believe it is a widespread issue but you can drill through that thread I posted.

That "decline" was something out of the ordinary I hope. Someone declined the car and we were "next up" for taking it.

I do not believe it is a paint issue for every MSM color. What I do have a "hunch" on is that it was declined previously and we were next in line to take delivery.

So that is all I can say because it is OUR opinion on that specific car that came with a weird "out of cycle" VIN that came to CO.

 

[095179005]

Well after seeing lots of people get deliveries on orders that were placed later than mine, I was hopeful that I'd have a VIN assigned soon since my DD was 7/2-8/6...
Didn't happen, woke up this morning to another pushback of the delivery date. Now it's 7/18-8/16. What's up with this system of order fulfillment? I guess I understand the CA push at end of quarter for quick deliveries and padding the numbers, but this seems to go beyond that...
Any thoughts?

M3LR/MSM/BLACK/AERO/NO FSD, OD 3/20/22, ODD 6/9-7/25, DD2 6/11-7/18, DD3 7/18-8/29, DD4 7/2-8/6, DD5 7/18-8/16
Chandler, AZ

Maybe expectations should shift for (new) orders - from 90 days to 120 days?
Tesla is still accepting orders so all that demand for EVs is funneled to them for anyone who is willing to pay or doesn't want to wait +9 months.

 

[Nfletcher]

Maybe expectations should shift for (new) orders - from 90 days to 120 days?
Tesla is still accepting orders so all that demand for EVs is funneled to them for anyone who is willing to pay or doesn't want to wait +9 months.

Yes expectations of 90 days should be relinquished. There are still mid March orders hanging around. I’m an April 3 order and my 90 days is very near and I’m looking at another month to delivery.

 

[toady911]

Whelp I made it. Car is great - have all the goodies and very happy with it. Had a small little paint bubble and have already set the appointment to get it fixed. Hang in there folks- it’s totally worth it.

 

[Manoj-M3LR]

Graduated over the weekend! Vin to delivery took only 4 days and felt so rushed. VIN 295XXX. Came with matrix headlights, Michelin tyres and mobile charging kit included. The car came with 52% charge. Picked up at the factory and had no physical paperwork to sign during pick up. Inspected the car for 2.5 hours at the factory and could find only 1 minor issue for which I opened a ticket. They also forgot to give me floor mats and I had to find someone to get it for me. They took close to an hour to give it to me. Already drove the car 300 miles and it’s such an amazing car to drive! Can’t wait to take it out on road trips! Good luck to everyone waiting for your cars!

 

[phaheem]

Graduation Day! Actually yesterday, but I'm glad it is over with. 103 days OD to DD. VIN 2781xx. Matrix, Michelin, mobile connector with NEMA 5-15 plug and J1772 adapter. 7 miles on the odometer. My experience was good, no issues. The location was not very busy, only a few people ahead of me. It is a small parking lot and there were maybe 15-20 vehicles awaiting delivery. A mixture of Model Y's and 3's. Saw a Model S Plaid which was probably an employee car. Took my checklists but ended up only using my eyes to look for anything that stood out. What appeared to be scratches on the front left turn signal lens cover turned out to be dried glue from a protective covering and was cleaned by a detail guy. The SA was helpful and since I told him I was familiar with the setup, he basically left me to my own devices. Spent a fairly long time Creating profiles, updating Control settings, installing my cupholder insert, armrest and console trays, etc.

Bought the keyfob prior to delivery, but the SA and I were unable to authenticate it to the car at the time. I was able to do it when I got home. It works perfectly to unlock/lock car, open frunk and open/close trunk. Also bought a silicone fob pocket that securely holds and protects the fob. Has imprinted buttons that make it easy to identify the functions. Included pics of Tuxmat floor mats I bought and the keyfob holder. The floor mats have a lot of coverage and provide a premium look, I think. They are expensive, but I wanted to splurge and get good quality.

Comfortable seats and the autopilot calibrated after maybe 20 minutes. I also felt the light vibration in the steering wheel for lane assist when getting too close to the lane markers. Smooth ride on smooth highway portions, but definitely a firm ride over bumps, small potholes, rough roadways. Tight steering in Standard mode. Note: I saw the AB (Acceleration Boost) in the upgrade portion of the app and considered it but will wait until I get tired of the already rocket acceleration. Can't justify 2K right now, but down the road...

Using wall charger at home is great. Took an hour to charge 63 miles driven. Out of curiosity, I left the car unplugged overnight to see how much battery drain and it lost 9 miles (4%) out of 286 miles when charged to 80%. I had left Sentry Mode on and some other items, so I will play around with setting to maximize drainage, but plan to keep the car plugged in when not in use.

I also took off the Aero covers and installed Tesla's Wheel Cap Kit 2.0. I know they will take a bit of a hit on mileage, but I like the look so far and will change back to Aero's for longer trips.

All in all, a joy to drive and absolutely worth the wait! I would not have had the knowledge or confidence to be able to arrive at the SC, assess the condition, create and adjust the settings and feel very comfortable about the entire process without all of the help, insight and guidance from each of you on this forum. Special thanks to the "senior members" who were there before me and had already "been there, done that". Of course, I'll stick around to answer any questions and provide support as I am able. Hang in there, you will be glad you did!

The aero wheels with the cap kit look so good. The caps really change the whole look of the wheel

 

[phaheem]

Graduated over the weekend! Vin to delivery took only 4 days and felt so rushed. VIN 295XXX. Came with matrix headlights, Michelin tyres and mobile charging kit included. The car came with 52% charge. Picked up at the factory and had no physical paperwork to sign during pick up. Inspected the car for 2.5 hours at the factory and could find only 1 minor issue for which I opened a ticket. They also forgot to give me floor mats and I had to find someone to get it for me. They took close to an hour to give it to me. Already drove the car 300 miles and it’s such an amazing car to drive! Can’t wait to take it out on road trips! Good luck to everyone waiting for your cars!

Tesla’s blue paint is one of the best shades of blue on any car. (Behind interlagos blue and Laguna seca blue on the E46 M3, and the electron blue pearl on the EM1 civic Si)

 

[jaschrbob]

Maybe expectations should shift for (new) orders - from 90 days to 120 days?
Tesla is still accepting orders so all that demand for EVs is funneled to them for anyone who is willing to pay or doesn't want to wait +9 months.

Yea, I'm at 101 days right now and the 120 day point would put me right at 7/18 with my present EDD of 7/18-8/15...and still within my ODD of 6/9-7/25.
Hope springs eternal!