For those waiting here that don't feel like scouring the forums for information about how to interpret estimated delivery date (EDD), here is a summary of what I have found while looking for the past couple weeks:
- Your place in line might not be reserved until after you complete the initial document request after your order is placed.
- Your EDD will probably start out with a range similar to what was claimed when you placed your order, e.g. 4-6 weeks out.
- At some point your EDD window will start regularly shrinking down, probably at a rate of one or two days shrink per day that passes.
- Once your EDD window shrinks to about a 7 day period, you will probably get your VIN soon.
Here is a summary of how my EDD changed each day until I got my VIN:
Tesla M3P Red with White Interior, lease financing, destination: Ohio.
Date | Estimated Delivery Date
Jul 30, 2021 | Aug 20 - Sep 9 - Order Placed
Aug 4, 2021 | Aug 22 - Sep 11
Aug 6, 2021 | Aug 20 - Sep 9
Aug 7, 2021 | Aug 22 - Sep 9
Aug 10, 2021 | Aug 23 - Sep 10
Aug 11, 2021 | Aug 24 - Sep 9
Aug 12, 2021 | Aug 25 - Sep 9
Aug 13, 2021 | Aug 26 - Sep 7
Aug 14, 2021 | Aug 27 - Sep 8
Aug 15, 2021 | Aug 28 - Sep 7
Aug 16, 2021 | Aug 29 - Sep 7
Aug 17, 2021 | Aug 30 - Sep 7
Aug 17, 2021 | Aug 30 - Sep 7
Aug 18, 2021 | Aug 28 - Sep 3 - VIN Received