Do you have the details on this? I have no idea how 2016 vehicles and Model S vehicles dealt with capacity loss, whether used a top buffer, or used a degradation threshold like Model 3/Y (and new Model S), etc.
I have seen numerous posts on different locations about model S getting stranded, because they lost the last 10-30 miles very quick and then the cars stopped.
It do not seem extremely unusual that this happens.
If it do, it most probably comes from a overestimate from the BMS.
In
@Peter Lucas case it looks very much.
I would not guess the real loss is 30%, knowing what is needed to achieve 30% loss.
I have idea of a technique to calculate the real capacity. Using SMT (Scan My Tesla) makes it very exact but it can be done without, only using the screen also.
Charge to 70-100% or so. Not important.
Let the car sleep one hour after the charge. No Sentry, no peeking in the app, no doors opened etc. Let it sleep.
Note the indicated SOC % and maybe also the indicated range.
Then drive at least 30% indicated, (50% or more if possible without SMT, but make sure not to run it dry).
When the drive is finished and the car is in park, note the new SOC % and indicated range.
Again, let the car sleep one hour. No Sentry, no peeking in the app etc.
After this, note the SOC% and the indicated range.
The SOC will be messured by the cell Voltage during/after the sleep, and the correct SOC will be shown.
The initial sleep after the charge/before the drive is to ensure that the initial SOC is correct by cell voltage measurement.
The sleep after the drive is to, again get the cell voltage measured SOC.
If the BMS overestimates the capacity, the BMS estimate* when parking will be a higher SOC than the correct and a clear drop will happen.
If a drive use 50% indicated SOC (example, starting at 80% and ending at 30%) from a 100kWh estimated capacity the used energy is 50kWh (for now, disregard the buffer). We can read the used energy on the screen.
After sleeping one hour after the drive, the displayed SOC is for example 28%, we now know that the 50kWh used energy is about 52% of the capacity.
50/0.52 = 96.2kWh. In this case the car estimates the capacity to about 50/0.5= 100kWh but the real capacity is close to 96 kWh.
Without SMT we only have SOC in whole percent but this will give the big picture and its also possible to increase the resolution by using displayed range, km is more exakt than miles.
*) SOC can not be messured correctly other than very approximate during a drive as the battery voltage droop during load.
The shown SOC during a drive is a estimate from “initial SOC —> initial energy minus used energy which is then converted to SOC by using the estimated capacity (nominal full pack).