Model 3 Supercharging Capable Discussion

[Red Sage]

I agree with Red Sage broadly however, the vehicles per gas/charge station comparison needs to factor in throughput i.e. refill times. Roughly speaking if we say it would take 6x as much time to charge an EV compared to refill an average gas tank, then the there would have to be 6x as many charge stations for a fair comparison. Or there will have to be more refill points in any one EV charge station compared to a gas station.

So to equal 2083 vehicles per gas station, we need to reach approximately 348 EVs per SC location - something like that - this assumes a similar numbers of refill points in each case and range per refill to be roughly equal between EVs and ICE - which is the case now with Tesla.

I thought I had factored that in, with at least one, maybe two, of my prior posts. That is, if it takes a mythical 'five minutes' to fill an ICE vehicle, and most Supercharger stops are roughly 30 minutes, you would need six times as many Supercharger locations per electric vehicle to match distribution of gas stations to ICE.

Currently, there are around 250,000,000 ICE vehicles in the US, and around 120,000 gas stations. So, ~2,083 ICE vehicles per gas station. Thereby, around 347 Supercharger locations per enabled EV.

In Los Angeles County, there are around 6,000,000 vehicles registered, and only about 1,900 gas stations. So, ~3,158 ICE vehicles per gas station -- not including those that are just passing through. So, ~526 cars per Supercharger location would match that distribution.

Today there are 270 Active Superchargers in the US, 15 under Construction, and 17 that are Permitted. Through May 2016, around 73,103 of Model S, and perhaps 6,108 Model X have reached US Customers. So, nearly 79,211 Supercharger enabled vehicles. That amount divided by the Active locations alone, you get 293 cars per Supercharger in the US. If you add those under Construction and Permitted, then it is only 262 cars per Supercharger.

No matter how you cut it, Tesla Motors is already well ahead of the curve, and better distributed per vehicle than US gas stations already. This is why I despise the Supercharger Armageddon prognostications. One must assume that people will regularly plug in at a Supercharger stall for an hour or more, or that Tesla Motors will simply STOP building Supercharger locations, to even approach there being a problem.

 

[Garlan Garner]

No matter how you cut it, Tesla Motors is already well ahead of the curve, and better distributed per vehicle than US gas stations already. This is why I despise the Supercharger Armageddon prognostications. One must assume that people will regularly plug in at a Supercharger stall for an hour or more, or that Tesla Motors will simply STOP building Supercharger locations, to even approach there being a problem.

Asside from the fact that each ICE station contains 6 pumps or so.....

I fully agree that Tesla is far ahead of the game....just be patient folks.

 

[MP3Mike]

Asside from the fact that each ICE station contains 6 pumps or so.....

I fully agree that Tesla is far ahead of the game....just be patient folks.

But don't most Supercharger stations have 6 "pumps" or so? (Yes some have fewer but some have up to 20 right?)

 

[Red Sage]

Elon Musk said in his two interviews this week that I watched that:

• Can't bundle free SC with lowest price M3. (For the record, I assumed that, at the $35K price point.)

I urge you to consider that he said 'for LIFE' each time (instead of, as some presume, 'at ALL'). That does not mean that Supercharger access will not be free of additional fees. It does not mean that it will be pay per use. It does not mean that there will be a subscription or billing plan. It only means that Supercharger access will NOT be 'for LIFE' with the base version of the car.

I hope this means that Supercharger access will be available for everyone, but that it may be limited in some way for those that do not purchase either a higher capacity battery pack, or the 'FREE for LIFE' package. That limitation may be a certain number of uses per week or month... It could be a trial program that makes it available for only a short period, possibly 1-to-3 months after Delivery. It could be that it is available for a longer period, maybe three-to-five years, and then expires... It could be available only to the original purchaser, and the next person would have to pay to activate it.

 

[Garlan Garner]

But don't most Supercharger stations have 6 "pumps" or so? (Yes some have fewer but some have up to 20 right?)

Yes, however his original post only spoke of ICE stations...not ICE pumps. Its not that important. There will eventually be enough SC's out there to remove all congestion.

 

[jkk_]

Asside from the fact that each ICE station contains 6 pumps or so.....

I fully agree that Tesla is far ahead of the game....just be patient folks.

Really? Not trying to be cute, there are plenty of "cold stations" (payment only with card to a meter, no staff, only fuel pumps) here where there are only 2 pumps so it feels weird that the majority would be stations with 6 or more pumps.

 

[Red Sage]

I'm not, but maybe just a hair more practical or frugal. If unlimited Supercharging is $2000, assuming it costs approximately $9 in electricity to charge the Model 3, that's roughly 222 charges. Given our driving habits, we venture out of the area maybe once every couple months, but far enough to require hitting a Supercharger maybe 3-4 times for the total trip. If I hit a Supercharger four times every two months, that's 24 times per year. It would take me nearly 10 years to recoup that investment, which isn't reasonable for us. As the expense drops, it becomes more reasonable.

Once again, I think in terms of how far I could drive an ICE vehicle using the same amount of money. $2,000 would last me perhaps nine months of driving even a fuel efficient ICE that got 40 MPG in practice. When I compare nine months to '...for LIFE!' there is no question which choice is better for the money spent. I doubt that the 'FREE for LIFE!' Supercharge access option on Model ☰ will be as high as $2,000 anyway. Many call for it to be $1,000 at the time of order placement, exactly half what it was for the $69,900 Model S 60 for the $35,000 Model ☰. I would rather it were a proportional amount of the profit margin instead. So, I figure $500 would be appropriate.

You do realize what Elon's first major start-up was, right? Tesla wouldn't be considered a utility any more than any existing gas station, who also have pumps that sit there, unattended, ready to accept credit card payment. Frankly, the PPU Supercharger would be even more secure, as the owner wouldn't need their physical card, just plug the car in, the Supercharger recognizes the VIN (or however it identifies it), and the CC on file is charged the amount. The only way someone could "hack" the system to get owner credit card information would be to hack a stored database, probably the same database that already houses our credit card information from where we paid our deposits...

Elon Musk made his initial fortune when he sold a company called Zip2 to Compaq. He made his next fortune by selling PayPal to ebay. I guess you are talking about the PayPal deal, right? Here the thing is... Pay-per-use, as demonstrated by what you wrote here, almost always presumes that someone is debited instantly, immediately, at the time of the transaction. And, it always assumes there is a 'credit card on file'. Most people aren't going to be buying a new car from Tesla Motors four-to-six times per month. They might get one every other year or so, and that frequency of use is not apt to cause to many problems. Anyone with a hard hat, reflective vest, and a clipboard can make it seem as if they are doing service, without being challenged. If someone were to sneak into the utility area at a Supercharger and devise a means to skim information through Tesla's systems, it would be really, very bad. With no transaction data being transmitted at all, they would be Sierra Oscar Lima. Rather than a new transaction every time you 'buy' usage of Superchargers, which is the case with gas stations, I'd rather that there was a single monthly or quarterly bill issued. And I don't like that either. I prefer for things to be simple, direct, straightforward, to the point. Buy the car with the appropriate options to enable 'FREE (of additional fees) for LIFE (the life of the car)!' access to the Supercharger network. Sorted.

Tesla itself doesn't want folks over utilizing the Supercharger network - I'm sure you remember the communication to owners regarding that. The network is designed to enable travel without fear of range to allow that ecstasy you refer to. Allowing a PPU system along with lifetime options would enable a greater number of owners to experience that and share in the EV mission.

The issue was not over use. The problem was that people were being incredibly inconsiderate of others. They were using Supercharger stalls as their own personal parking space. Pulling in, and sitting there for hours, often without charging at all. Making life extra-special miserable for travelers at one particular extremely busy location. Tesla Motors hired Valets to move cars when they are done charging. Tesla Motors reminded people that it was OK to use local Superchargers occasionally, but that it was best to charge at home when you have that option available. Once again, the problem was not the Supercharger network. The problem was people.

 

[Red Sage]

Asside from the fact that each ICE station contains 6 pumps or so.....

I fully agree that Tesla is far ahead of the game....just be patient folks.

There are actually fewer gas stations now than there used to be. Most newer gas stations sport around 16-to-24 pumps. Older, legacy locations may still have as few as two or four pumps in extremely remote locations. But since cars have greater fuel economy than ever before, those wondrous examples of cut-throat capitalism known as 'Last Chance GAS!' locations that were literally in the middle of nowhere are largely abandoned, decrepit, unused and closed. At least a third of Tesla Motors' Supercharger locations have eight stalls. Many of the newer ones have 12 or more. I would not doubt that dedicated Supercharger locations with up to 24 stalls will appear some day.

 

[ChadFeldheimer]

That amount divided by the Active locations alone, you get 293 cars per Supercharger in the US

You forgot to account for the fact that everyone who drives a Tesla loves the experience so much that they drive it much much more. In your case, you now drive some 40k miles a year, which is about 3x the ICE average. Once we factor this in, it is clear that the supercharger network is doomed unless Tesla begins a pay as you go plan.

For best effect, I expect Tesla to only accept payment via nickels and dimes.

I'm here all week folks.

 

[Raindog1]

Just My two cents.... Maybe everyone who pre-ordered before seeing the car (this includes me too) Should get free supercharging!..... No?..... okay how about free Ludicrous Mode!?! you know... for taking the "leap of faith".

 

[FlatSix911]

There are actually fewer gas stations now than there used to be. Most newer gas stations sport around 16-to-24 pumps. Older, legacy locations may still have as few as two or four pumps in extremely remote locations. But since cars have greater fuel economy than ever before, those wondrous examples of cut-throat capitalism known as 'Last Chance GAS!' locations that were literally in the middle of nowhere are largely abandoned, decrepit, unused and closed. At least a third of Tesla Motors' Supercharger locations have eight stalls. Many of the newer ones have 12 or more. I would not doubt that dedicated Supercharger locations with up to 24 stalls will appear some day.

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[Red Sage]

You forgot to account for the fact that everyone who drives a Tesla loves the experience so much that they drive it much much more. In your case, you now drive some 40k miles a year, which is about 3x the ICE average. Once we factor this in, it is clear that the supercharger network is doomed unless Tesla begins a pay as you go plan.

For best effect, I expect Tesla to only accept payment via nickels and dimes.

I'm here all week folks.

I'm certain that I would drive a Supercharger enabled vehicle no less than 50,000 miles per year... And that at least half of that would be charged either at home, or the residences of Friends and Family. I really enjoy driving. If I only needed to travel 12,000 to 15,000 miles per year, I wouldn't need a car.

 

[MichFin]

You guys are delusional if you think Tesla can build a supercharger infrastructure to support all the future Tesla's that are coming.

Just look at a turnpike rest stop that has 20 pumps in either direction. Each car is in and out in 5 minutes and add a range of about 300-400 miles. Dozens of cars zipping in and out.

Now same scenario with Tesla has each car stopping for 30-40 minutes and adding 150-200 miles of range.

Right now in the midwest you rarely see more than 1 or 2 cars at a supercharger at any given time but keep in mind the expected growth

Right now there are around 60k tesla's in US. 2017 100k, 2018 250k, 2019 500k, 2020 800k+

As you can see the number increases by a factor of 10 in 4 years so even the quiet mid west superchargers are going to be packed.

 

[Garlan Garner]

You guys are delusional if you think Tesla can build a supercharger infrastructure to support all the future Tesla's that are coming.

Just look at a turnpike rest stop that has 20 pumps in either direction. Each car is in and out in 5 minutes and add a range of about 300-400 miles. Dozens of cars zipping in and out.

Now same scenario with Tesla has each car stopping for 30-40 minutes and adding 150-200 miles of range.

Right now in the midwest you rarely see more than 1 or 2 cars at a supercharger at any given time but keep in mind the expected growth

Right now there are around 60k tesla's in US. 2017 100k, 2018 250k, 2019 500k, 2020 800k+

As you can see the number increases by a factor of 10 in 4 years so even the quiet mid west superchargers are going to be packed.

People thought Tesla (new startup) was delusional that they would have the lead in the EV market in 6 years over companies such as GM and Nissan etc. Soooo. If you criticize me a delusional....that's fine with me.
I believe there will be enough.
Not EVERY car will have to charge at the same time. Just like not ever ICE will ever have to get gas at the same time. You don't need SC's 1 for 1.
The problem with your post is that you will never be able to prove your point concerning the entire US. I currently charge at a SC that I've never ever seen anyone visit.

Again...save your post for the next few years and lets see who's delusional.

 

[JeffK]

You guys are delusional if you think Tesla can build a supercharger infrastructure to support all the future Tesla's that are coming.

Just look at a turnpike rest stop that has 20 pumps in either direction. Each car is in and out in 5 minutes and add a range of about 300-400 miles. Dozens of cars zipping in and out.

I'm pretty sure there are more homes with garages than gas station pumps in this country so the infrastructure is not terribly difficult. The number of superchargers needed is a factor of how many people have no alternatives to charge ( renters, etc) and how many people with Teslas will be travelling at any one time along any given route.

I'm sure Tesla has information on what superchargers are more heavily utilized than others and what percentage of Model S/X owners are actually using the superchargers. There's also no need to scale out too quickly, a modest ramp up should be fine.

 

[MichFin]

People thought Tesla (new startup) was delusional that they would have the lead in the EV market in 6 years over companies such as GM and Nissan etc. Soooo. If you criticize me a delusional....that's fine with me.
I believe there will be enough.
Not EVERY car will have to charge at the same time. Just like not ever ICE will ever have to get gas at the same time. You don't need SC's 1 for 1.
The problem with your post is that you will never be able to prove your point concerning the entire US. I currently charge at a SC that I've never ever seen anyone visit.

Again...save your post for the next few years and lets see who's delusional.

I live in the Midwest where there are few Tesla's but as I go to superchargers in the Midwest I see 1 or 2 when I charge. The superchargers are great now but as you add another million Tesla's in the next 4-5 years there will be 10-20 times more cars at the same superchargers. First the charge level will be reduced if all the stalls are full and there will be people waiting for one to open up.

I love what Tesla has done with the superchargers and life is great right now. My point here is that unless Tesla wan't to get into the business of building 1000 more supercharging stations in the US in the next five years they're going to need private businesses to step up... Which is hard when they have to compete against the free or prepaid superchargers.

 

[llngoc]

Once again, I think in terms of how far I could drive an ICE vehicle using the same amount of money. $2,000 would last me perhaps nine months of driving even a fuel efficient ICE that got 40 MPG in practice. When I compare nine months to '...for LIFE!' there is no question which choice is better for the money spent. I doubt that the 'FREE for LIFE!' Supercharge access option on Model ☰ will be as high as $2,000 anyway. Many call for it to be $1,000 at the time of order placement, exactly half what it was for the $69,900 Model S 60 for the $35,000 Model ☰. I would rather it were a proportional amount of the profit margin instead. So, I figure $500 would be appropriate.


Elon Musk made his initial fortune when he sold a company called Zip2 to Compaq. He made his next fortune by selling PayPal to ebay. I guess you are talking about the PayPal deal, right? Here the thing is... Pay-per-use, as demonstrated by what you wrote here, almost always presumes that someone is debited instantly, immediately, at the time of the transaction. And, it always assumes there is a 'credit card on file'. Most people aren't going to be buying a new car from Tesla Motors four-to-six times per month. They might get one every other year or so, and that frequency of use is not apt to cause to many problems. Anyone with a hard hat, reflective vest, and a clipboard can make it seem as if they are doing service, without being challenged. If someone were to sneak into the utility area at a Supercharger and devise a means to skim information through Tesla's systems, it would be really, very bad. With no transaction data being transmitted at all, they would be Sierra Oscar Lima. Rather than a new transaction every time you 'buy' usage of Superchargers, which is the case with gas stations, I'd rather that there was a single monthly or quarterly bill issued. And I don't like that either. I prefer for things to be simple, direct, straightforward, to the point. Buy the car with the appropriate options to enable 'FREE (of additional fees) for LIFE (the life of the car)!' access to the Supercharger network. Sorted.


The issue was not over use. The problem was that people were being incredibly inconsiderate of others. They were using Supercharger stalls as their own personal parking space. Pulling in, and sitting there for hours, often without charging at all. Making life extra-special miserable for travelers at one particular extremely busy location. Tesla Motors hired Valets to move cars when they are done charging. Tesla Motors reminded people that it was OK to use local Superchargers occasionally, but that it was best to charge at home when you have that option available. Once again, the problem was not the Supercharger network. The problem was people.

Anyone here experienced the Christmas crunch at the SC? I was at the Tejon Ranch SC on 12/28 and guess what, there were about 10 Model S ahead of me and Tesla has sent in an employee there to manage the queue. The wait time for a stall was over an hour.

And also at the local Dublin SC, there is also a wait of one-two cars there every time I stopped by there even it is a large facility with over 12 stalls. (Not sure the exact number)

Not sure how Tesla can handle this once 500k+ Model 3's are put into service.

 

[MichFin]

. There's also no need to scale out too quickly, a modest ramp up should be fine.

The cars are scaling up very fast so superchargers have to keep pace. So even if everyone charges at home when they decide to go to XYZ on memorial day weekend which requires 1 supercharger stop and they arrive to find 20 cars lined up waiting to charge they will be very unhappy. Furthermore, everyone will look at that and say wow thank god we don't have an electric car. I can see the news headlines now.

 

[pinski]

Once again, I think in terms of how far I could drive an ICE vehicle using the same amount of money. $2,000 would last me perhaps nine months of driving even a fuel efficient ICE that got 40 MPG in practice. When I compare nine months to '...for LIFE!' there is no question which choice is better for the money spent. I doubt that the 'FREE for LIFE!' Supercharge access option on Model ☰ will be as high as $2,000 anyway. Many call for it to be $1,000 at the time of order placement, exactly half what it was for the $69,900 Model S 60 for the $35,000 Model ☰. I would rather it were a proportional amount of the profit margin instead. So, I figure $500 would be appropriate.

I think that's one of the major differences in our mindset when considering this - I'm thinking in terms of Model 3 PPU vs Model 3 Unlimited Supercharging and taking my current travel needs into consideration. If unlimited Supercharging does end up at $500 or $1000, I'd sign up for it without thinking twice, honestly, even though I would rarely use it.

Elon Musk made his initial fortune when he sold a company called Zip2 to Compaq. He made his next fortune by selling PayPal to ebay. I guess you are talking about the PayPal deal, right? Here the thing is... Pay-per-use, as demonstrated by what you wrote here, almost always presumes that someone is debited instantly, immediately, at the time of the transaction. And, it always assumes there is a 'credit card on file'. Most people aren't going to be buying a new car from Tesla Motors four-to-six times per month. They might get one every other year or so, and that frequency of use is not apt to cause to many problems. Anyone with a hard hat, reflective vest, and a clipboard can make it seem as if they are doing service, without being challenged. If someone were to sneak into the utility area at a Supercharger and devise a means to skim information through Tesla's systems, it would be really, very bad. With no transaction data being transmitted at all, they would be Sierra Oscar Lima. Rather than a new transaction every time you 'buy' usage of Superchargers, which is the case with gas stations, I'd rather that there was a single monthly or quarterly bill issued. And I don't like that either. I prefer for things to be simple, direct, straightforward, to the point. Buy the car with the appropriate options to enable 'FREE (of additional fees) for LIFE (the life of the car)!' access to the Supercharger network. Sorted.

What does buying a new car four-to-six times per month have to do with anything? I think that point just flew well over my head . My assumption is that the Supercharger can identify the car that's plugged into it, correct? By VIN or some other identifier. The Supercharger has to connect to a database of Tesla's that will differentiate cars that have purchased unlimited Supercharging, thus allowing them to charge and denying those who haven't enabled it. All I'm saying is that Tesla will just need to have a card on file, linked to VIN or vehicle ID, that will be charged when that vehicle plugs into the system. Zero risk for skimming as there will be no reader - the only information traveling through the series of tubes we call our Internet will be the car's VIN or ID.

The issue was not over use. The problem was that people were being incredibly inconsiderate of others. They were using Supercharger stalls as their own personal parking space. Pulling in, and sitting there for hours, often without charging at all. Making life extra-special miserable for travelers at one particular extremely busy location. Tesla Motors hired Valets to move cars when they are done charging. Tesla Motors reminded people that it was OK to use local Superchargers occasionally, but that it was best to charge at home when you have that option available. Once again, the problem was not the Supercharger network. The problem was people.

The more cars sold, the higher likelihood of running into another inconsiderate owner - someone constantly charging up near their home, etc. With an additional 200,000+ vehicles on US roads by the end of 2018, this will only be exacerbated. Aside from asking people to play nice, what do you think the solution is?

 

[Garlan Garner]

I live in the Midwest where there are few Tesla's but as I go to superchargers in the Midwest I see 1 or 2 when I charge. The superchargers are great now but as you add another million Tesla's in the next 4-5 years there will be 10-20 times more cars at the same superchargers. First the charge level will be reduced if all the stalls are full and there will be people waiting for one to open up.

I love what Tesla has done with the superchargers and life is great right now. My point here is that unless Tesla wan't to get into the business of building 1000 more supercharging stations in the US in the next five years they're going to need private businesses to step up... Which is hard when they have to compete against the free or prepaid superchargers.

My estimation is that if 500K new M3's went out today - and dispersed evenly in the US only....that there would be 9K more EV cars in the state of Illinois. The current SC Tesla capacity would be fine what that number as it stands right now. Not everyone charges as the same time and Half of the folks won't even purchase the SC package as it stands. SC'ing will be just fine.

Now lets turn the numbers back to reality and know that the 325K M3 reservations span the globe. Not just the US. I would be shocked if there 2K orders in Illinois. 2K orders in 18 months (after many more SC's will be installed ) will be able to charge when they want. Its not really going to be a problem.