Model 3 Timeline (speculation)

[physicsfita]

Yes. If for the only reason to get more people off gas powered cars...like me! Waiting for M3, would suck to have to drive the gas car longer because Model S/X owners got priority.

+1

If I have to wait an extra year or so to get a Model 3 while the S/X owners go to the front of the line, I doubt that my Prius (which is already a bit of a senior citizen at over 300,000 mi) would survive the extra 40,000 miles -- I would probably end up getting a Volt, instead.

 

[igotzzoom]

+1

If I have to wait an extra year or so to get a Model 3 while the S/X owners go to the front of the line, I doubt that my Prius (which is already a bit of a senior citizen at over 300,000 mi) would survive the extra 40,000 miles -- I would probably end up getting a Volt, instead.

Wow. Impressive! Still the original battery? I know a lot of uninformed people have told me they wouldn't buy a hybrid because they'd "have to replace the battery at 100,000 miles."

 

[gregincal]

+1

If I have to wait an extra year or so to get a Model 3 while the S/X owners go to the front of the line, I doubt that my Prius (which is already a bit of a senior citizen at over 300,000 mi) would survive the extra 40,000 miles -- I would probably end up getting a Volt, instead.

Even if they do this (which is a big if) nobody's talking about an extra year. Maybe an extra 2 or 3 months.

 

[physicsfita]

Wow. Impressive! Still the original battery? I know a lot of uninformed people have told me they wouldn't buy a hybrid because they'd "have to replace the battery at 100,000 miles."

Yep -- still the original battery! From everything I've heard from my mechanics, battery replacements are extremely rare. Heck, I'm still on the original 12-V battery!

 

[wallet.dat]

I just hope they have the AWD "P" version of the T≡SLA Model ≡ available at pre-order time.

 

[gjunky]

Just throwing out some more timeline guesswork:

March 9th 2016 Elon tweets that the launch event will be March 30th 2016 at the Design & Engineering Studio in Hawthorne. (it is important to get it all done in Q1 so that they can say they did it in Q1 during the May 4th 2016 Q1 results announcement)

....

March 30th 2016 Launch Event. Attendees should bring their checkbooks! They will be the first people to be able to reserve a Model 3... they'll be at the front of the line.

...

July 2017 Design Studio will open up for Model 3.

September 27th 2017 Delivery Ceremony at the Fremont factory

I think your timeline is fairly optimistic. Elon stated they would unveil the Model 3 in March of 2016. He didn't say anything about them taking orders or there being a design studio. I doubt they will go from unveiling (an alpha) to production models you can take home in 18 months. This is to be a high volume car and they will want to be very sure to get everything (car and production line) worked out before they put cars on the road.

Don't get me wrong, I hope you are right and the timeline would work well for me but I wouldn't hold my breath. This car is something they (once again) need to get right before they release it into the wild.

 

[Nomad]

I just hope they have the AWD "P" version of the T≡SLA Model ≡ available at pre-order time.

I reckon that'll be the version sold exclusively at launch. Then a few months later they'll start delivering the non performance versions. I'm really excited to see the performance statistics.

I also don't think there will be a non-D version of the Model 3. They are moving to a more unified powertrain system across all of the platforms, and single motor variants are on their way out. It won't be long before the standard Model S 85 is no longer available. /speculation

 

[igotzzoom]

I think the Model 3 will be offered with a single-motor configuration, for cost containment. If Musk is serious about hitting the $35k price target, certain goodies will have to be left on the table.

 

[Bj Clean]

Always keep in mind the $35,000 will be for the base model. They can still have their cake and eat it too.i imagine the model 3 has options going up to $50-$55,000.

 

[igotzzoom]

I don't dispute there will be a dual-motor option, but I disagree with Nomad that the 3 will be an all dual-motor lineup.

 

[Red Sage]

When the Tesla Model ≡ is unveiled, it will be not as one, but at least three body configurations. Two of those will certainly be a sedan and crossover. A third may be a wagon. Within two years a coupe and cabriolet would be presented.

There will be no delays of any sort, but there will be a steady, controlled, gradual rollout to worldwide territories. That is, Tesla Motors will prioritize US sales for much of the first twelve months of production. Right hand drive territories will be the last to get Model ≡.

Because of this, reservations will not be accepted for any location that is more than 12-18 months from initial deliveries. No one will be waiting three, four, or five years to get a car they put down a deposit for... But as capacity and production ramp up, some will unfortunately have to wait two years for delivery.

I humbly suggest that everyone who thinks there is 'no way' Tesla Motors delivers any of the Model ≡ before 2019 make sure they don't order one before 2019 -- so as to make sure they aren't disappointed.

;-)

 

[gregincal]

When the Tesla Model ≡ is unveiled, it will be not as one, but at least three body configurations. Two of those will certainly be a sedan and crossover. A third may be a wagon. Within two years a coupe and cabriolet would be presented.

There will be no delays of any sort, but there will be a steady, controlled, gradual rollout to worldwide territories. That is, Tesla Motors will prioritize US sales for much of the first twelve months of production. Right hand drive territories will be the last to get Model ≡.

Because of this, reservations will not be accepted for any location that is more than 12-18 months from initial deliveries. No one will be waiting three, four, or five years to get a car they put down a deposit for... But as capacity and production ramp up, some will unfortunately have to wait two years for delivery.

I humbly suggest that everyone who thinks there is 'no way' Tesla Motors delivers any of the Model ≡ before 2019 make sure they don't order one before 2019 -- so as to make sure they aren't disappointed.

;-)

I'm not quite this optimistic. I feel that they will deliver the Model 3 by the end of 2017 in at least limited numbers, but only because they will just announce and deliver the lift back sedan. Other models will be announced later (and the CUV will not carry the Model 3 designation).

 

[TEG]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102723117

...
Speaking on the affordability of a Tesla vehicle, Musk acknowledged the Model S is a "relatively expensive car," but that a more affordable car is expected to come out in 2017. Customers purchasing Model S and Model X cars this year are directly helping to fund a more affordable electric car in the future, he said. "I wish we could have gotten there sooner, but we are doing the best we can," Musk said...

 

[MassModel3]

I wouldn't mind the wait so much if they'd at least give us some idea what it would look like. It's so frustrating anticipating something and not even knowing if you're going to like it when it comes. Just a rough image, please....

But then, the Model X buyers probably said the same thing 3 years ago -- just a peek, please!

 

[stephenpace]

Tesla should hold off showing the Model 3 as long as possible. The sooner they show it, the faster the other OEMs get a look and may start copying it.

 

[SmartElectric]

Tesla should hold off showing the Model 3 as long as possible. The sooner they show it, the faster the other OEMs get a look and may start copying it.

That's the whole point, advance the advent of affordable sustainable transportation.
Let's hope there is lots of choice in the EV market in two years!

 

[Model 3]

That's the whole point, advance the advent of affordable sustainable transportation.
Let's hope there is lots of choice in the EV market in two years!

It's the drive-line they want others to copy, not the looks. So he got a point.

- - - Updated - - -

It's so frustrating anticipating something and not even knowing if you're going to like it when it comes.

Knowing Tesla and Fraz: You will love it when it comes. Everybody will loves it when it comes. Everybody except those waiting for a P135Q++ 2-doors GT cupe...

 

[guillaumef]

Everybody except those waiting for a P135Q++ 2-doors GT cupe...

The P135Q++ is the one that has quad motors and can go to the moon and back in less than 5 minutes, right ? can't wait to put a deposit on this one, tesla !

 

[SmartElectric]

It's the drive-line they want others to copy, not the looks

I love the look of my Mercedes GLK, but hate the gas engine. If it came in an EV drive train, I'd have bought that instead of the gas in a heartbeat.

So what I am saying is, copying the look of a Tesla is not going to cost Tesla any sales.

My point stands, Tesla should absolutely reveal the Model 3 as soon as practically possible, and not hide it away, the car will be a sensation no matter what, I'm sure of that.

 

[EVNow]

Tesla should hold off showing the Model 3 as long as possible. The sooner they show it, the faster the other OEMs get a look and may start copying it.

But other OEMs take a long time to bring a new car out - Tesla can easily beat them, right ?