Model S as a car (forgetting the EV)

[neroden]

the likelihood that we'll see $6 gas over the next six years is very low (despite what EV proponents want everyone to believe) because it wouldn't be politically prudent for any administration to allow that to happen.

In the US, the administration has a lot less control over gas prices than you might imagine. Last time we had a gas price spike, rather than lowering the prices through subsidies, the government implemented rationing, which would drive people to electric cars at tremendous speed.

(Edit: I was referring to the 1970s here.)

At the moment, the countries which are subsidizing gas prices are having trouble maintaining the subsidies; it's blowing their budget. At the moment, given the mood, I think adding new subsidies to gasoline would be politically impossible. Rationing might be possible, but as I say, that would have its own result.

And on top of that -- politically prudent doesn't seem to be the watchword of the last few administrations.

I don't actually think gas prices will hit $6 in the US in the next couple of years, but that's due to fundamental economic weakness. They'll probably exceed $6 within 10 years (because nobody's going to leave the economy to rot for that long).

 

[brianman]

Now you'll only get hassled about buying a car not made in Detroit! :smile:

There's an easy answer to this one.

"I'm replacing my Detroit guzzler with an EV. Would you rather I buy from California or foreign? While you dig yourself out of that one, where do you want to go for lunch?"

 

[neroden]

There are various gasoline price points out there, though, where supply increases.

This is where the analysis from the Deutsche Bank report comes in. You have to look at the variance in gas prices.

At the 2008 oil price spike, the price passed several of the thresholds for supply increase, but it didn't stay there long enough. A pattern of high spikes followed by deep crashes -- which is the pattern the oil market follows -- is one where the new supply does not appear, not until the low price reaches the profitability threshold. Sellers mentally track the recent low, in order to be safe.

But on the other end, when the prices drop, the buyers don't adjust (by buying more gas) unless the drop is sustained -- buyers mentally track the recent high, in order to be safe.

So high variances in price are, long-term, deadly for the oil market. But there's basically no way to prevent them apart from very heavy-handed regulations on trading, and the people in the (US) oil industry (as opposed to the nationalized oil companies) are ideologically opposed to it.

If you slam around the molecules hard enough, you can convert natural gas to a liquid hydrocarbon that makes a perfectly reasonable (albeit expensive) gasoline substitute. Given that natural gas is currently seen to be cheap and plentiful, that's one check on the upward spiral of gasoline.\

Cheap natural gas is expected to run out in the 2020s at current rates, last I checked. Biomethane should provide a steady supply eventually, but it's slow to come online, and I haven't seen a good estimate on how much is expected to become available.

We've talked about this before, though -- if you try to rationalize the Model S price solely on "this is cheaper than the alternative," you get ambiguous answers depending on a laundry list of factors,

Absolutely.

But honestly, while there are a lot of factors, miles driven per year is the primary determinant of whether getting an electric car is cheaper. If you drive gobs and gobs and gobs and gobs -- 100K/year, for instance -- it's clearly cheaper. (Assuming you can do this with the range.) If you drive barely at all -- 5K/year, for instance -- it's clearly not cheaper.

I'm getting it even though it's clearly not cheaper for me.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

They exist, will they work though?

Amazon.com: External USB DVD/CD f Netbook, Mini, Laptop PC - The Best Holiday Gift!: Electronics

I'd think this is more appropriate for neroden's purpose (assuming the Model S will have an AUX input along with the USB ports):

Amazon.com: Sony Walkman Portable All-in-one Skip-Free CD Player, Digital AM/FM Radio Tuner, Clip Style Earbud Headphones, 40 Preset FM Stations, Digital Mega Bass Sound, AVLS and CD-R/RW Playback: Electronics

Amazing that Sony still makes these (they retired the Walkman in late 2010) - the last Discman that I owned (over 9 years ago) had a ridiculous 3-second skip protection :biggrin:

 

[AnOutsider]

Man, it's been so long so I owned my first MP3 player (1998) that I forgot skipping was even an issue with CDs

 

[PeterW]

But honestly, while there are a lot of factors, miles driven per year is the primary determinant of whether getting an electric car is cheaper. If you drive gobs and gobs and gobs and gobs -- 100K/year, for instance -- it's clearly cheaper. (Assuming you can do this with the range.) If you drive barely at all -- 5K/year, for instance -- it's clearly not cheaper.

I'm getting it even though it's clearly not cheaper for me.

Are there any taxi drivers on this forum?

 

[ckessel]

Are there any taxi drivers on this forum?

Wasn't the guy that plopped down an order for 100 Model S the owner of a taxi company in some place like Iceland?

 

[neroden]

I'd think this is more appropriate for neroden's purpose (assuming the Model S will have an AUX input along with the USB ports):

They probably won't, unfortunately.

 

[strider]

Given that I won't have Wifi and I won't pay extra for cellphone service... how are they going to get access at all?!? Maybe if the cellphone service is free.

Tesla pays for that small diagnostic connectivity - Roadster owners have never seen a cell phone bill. W/ Model S I'm sure there will be data plans based on what you plan to do (diag only - free, NAV/traffic - $X/month, full web surfing, $Y/month, etc.

 

[vfx]

When gasoline was $2.50 a gallon the threshold to customer fury was $3.50 that is that's when people had enough and started cutting back on miles driven, hybrid sales rose, and Google saw a jump in the seach term "electric car".
Now we live with $3.50 as the norm. I'm sure that rhere have been small cutabcks in gas usage and other things to pay for gasoline needed but in general we are used to it. Same will happen at $4.50 and $5.50.

 

[neroden]

When gasoline was $2.50 a gallon the threshold to customer fury was $3.50 that is that's when people had enough and started cutting back on miles driven, hybrid sales rose, and Google saw a jump in the seach term "electric car".
Now we live with $3.50 as the norm. I'm sure that rhere have been small cutabcks in gas usage and other things to pay for gasoline needed but in general we are used to it. Same will happen at $4.50 and $5.50.

The total amount of driving in the US, however, dropped permanently when the spike in price hit, and hasn't rebounded. Likewise, the taste for fuel-inefficient cars took a hit and has not recovered. The same will happen at $4.50 and $5.50; each of these price spikes will do small but *permanent* damage to the gas-car market. After a while that begins to add up.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Along these lines, I considered driving down to my son's wrestling meet yesterday, about 70 miles away (the small independent school league is very spread out). I made the decision that it wasn't worth the gas price (I had seen him wrestle the day before). IF I had my Model S, however, I would have been down there in a heartbeat, if for no other reason than the pleasure of taking the car for a drive!

 

[jcstp]

Wasn't the guy that plopped down an order for 100 Model S the owner of a taxi company in some place like Iceland?

Was the iceland order not for a carshare-programme, and the other guy from Danmark ordering 50 for his taxi-firm?