Model S Delivery Dates and Sequencing

[DouglasR]

Did you get a date range?

P.S. All this info is giving my spreadsheet quite the workout. If any Tesla employees are reading this and my spreadsheet has been a thorn in your side for a while, you can feel satisfied that you've made my job very difficult this week

Sorry my post was so cryptic. We were at the theater, and I had just a few moments to respond on my phone.

So I had asked a contact in the Ownership Experience team if he could give me an update on my car. It took him a couple of days, but tonight at around 5:30 he emailed me to say "it's getting close." He gave me my VIN (01527), and said we should have more info in a couple of days, and that the Delivery Team is reaching out to as many people as possible.

This is not as good as getting the "It's time to set up delivery" email, but I certainly feel very hopeful that this will be coming soon. The communication is significant in a couple of respects. First, there has been a lot of speculation that Performance cars were being delayed. Mine is the first Performance P that I know of to get a VIN. Possibly there is a delay involving carbon fiber (I have Lacewood trim, and no spoiler), but at least they are not delaying all Performance cars.

Second, his comment that the Delivery Team is reaching out to as many people as possible implies to me that we just need to be patient. We haven't seen a large enough sample to draw conclusions about which features are causing delays. I suspect that in a few days, this will become much clearer. It is quite possible that some delivery specialists are simply more swamped than others, and that is what is causing the seeming randomness of the sequence numbers we are seeing.

So for those who are curious:

#P983
VIN 01527
P85 Performance
Pearl White
Pano Roof
19" Wheels
Tan Leather
Lacewood
Tech Package
Sound Studio
Active Air
No child seats, package shelf, spoiler, or twin chargers
To be delivered to Seattle

 

[dennis25]

Received my magic email at 5:49pm EST. P1635, non-performance 85kWh, green, pano, air suspension, Tech, Sound Studio, tan leather, lacewood, delivered to Boston. Delivery window December 5-19.

W00t!!

That is awesome, Robert! haven't heard anything yet but i'm checking my email every six seconds. i'm going to stay optimistic and hope that they're going to put my car on your delivery truck. i'll keep you posted. (p1675 - silver, black leather interior, 85kwh, sound and tech package, air suspension)

 

[Francis Lau]

Interesting, I have green, obeche, pano, tech, and am P457 and not a peep. Oh well.

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I promised myself I wouldn't email Tesla, and I would be patient, but seeing all the P's I just emailed. Hoping to hear something soon.

Trying SO hard to be patient!

P457 - been waiting since March 2009...

Mike, I recommend that you email tesla to check in. I think you will get good info from them.

 

[ClearwaterBchSteve]

Just as an FYI, I am P210, and I called today. They had no info for me. They gave me a probably December with no details. I have performance and no carbon fiber.

Happy for those 2000+ getting emails, but feeling a little shorted like the sigs did. I put the deposit down 7:30am the morning I saw the press release 3.5 years ago. I would hope I would see the car this year.

I am in Kentucky a bit out of the way. Wonder if location batching is the problem for me.

This is a puzzle, theoretically since you don't have carbon fiber, you should be getting notified like the other "P's" with 85KWh- there must be something else... I too put down my deposit within a day or so of the original announcement - I was away on a business trip and did it from my laptop in a hotel room. I'm in Florida, even farther from Fremont,CA than Kentucky I think I'll just wait until I'm notified and then will post again... What else can we do but wait and hope?

 

[napabill]

To add to the confusion, I received my VIN#, after requesting it, a couple of days ago. I agreed to not post it here for a couple of days so as to not rile things up. I'm P-83 and my VIN# is 1571 and may be available for factory delivery this weekend. It is curious that P-983 has VIN#1527, well after my P# but well under my VIN#. Also I saw a posting that P-153 is being delivered at Hawthorne on Friday. Inconsistencies seem numerous.

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Forgot to mention that P-83 is Non-Perf, Brown with Tan, Solid Roof, standard sound, Active Air Suspension, Tech, Obeche Matte, 19" wheels.

 

[stinnett_P813]

Just as an FYI, I am P210, and I called today. They had no info for me. They gave me a probably December with no details. I have performance and no carbon fiber.

Happy for those 2000+ getting emails, but feeling a little shorted like the sigs did. I put the deposit down 7:30am the morning I saw the press release 3.5 years ago. I would hope I would see the car this year.

I am in Kentucky a bit out of the way. Wonder if location batching is the problem for me.

I am in the same boat as you. I placed my deposit over 3 years ago. I called yesterday and was given the same information. Which was really that they have no information. All she could say was that I should get it by mid January. My car is 85 kwh performance, blue, no carbon, 21" wheels. I may be wrong, but I am starting to think the wheels may be a hold up. I have only seen a couple 21" wheels with delivery information.

 

[badgerlake]

I am in the same boat as you. I placed my deposit over 3 years ago. I called yesterday and was given the same information. Which was really that they have no information. All she could say was that I should get it by mid January. My car is 85 kwh performance, blue, no carbon, 21" wheels. I may be wrong, but I am starting to think the wheels may be a hold up. I have only seen a couple 21" wheels with delivery information.

Same here (P264). I wish they would just tell me if it's the 21" wheels, b/c then i'd just buy the winter tire package w/ 19" wheels and wait for the 21s when available.

 

[EdA]

I am in the same boat as you. I placed my deposit over 3 years ago. I called yesterday and was given the same information. Which was really that they have no information. All she could say was that I should get it by mid January. My car is 85 kwh performance, blue, no carbon, 21" wheels. I may be wrong, but I am starting to think the wheels may be a hold up. I have only seen a couple 21" wheels with delivery information.

I too was making that conclusion (21" wheels will slow down your order).
Was going to do some data mining on the delivery spreadsheet but:

a.) options are one field
2.) it seems very slow
iii.) got too much real work to do

/Ed

 

[contaygious]

Same here. I deposited very early. I'm told about a week or two until I hear something.

Glad to hear some perf #s contacted, but still don't see any dark rims and only a handful of cf trim in the spreadsheet. I've got to assume they are coming in slower.

Congrats to napa Bill! Hopefully you pickup this weekend!

 

[napabill]

As was said by someone else, nice to have some information, but I don't hear no fat lady singing just yet!

 

[Arnold Panz]

To add to the confusion, I received my VIN#, after requesting it, a couple of days ago. I agreed to not post it here for a couple of days so as to not rile things up. I'm P-83 and my VIN# is 1571 and may be available for factory delivery this weekend. It is curious that P-983 has VIN#1527, well after my P# but well under my VIN#. Also I saw a posting that P-153 is being delivered at Hawthorne on Friday. Inconsistencies seem numerous.

We saw the same thing with the Sigs where some people seemed to jump the line with their VIN relative to their reservation number, and others were way behind. I wouldn't try to discern that it's this or that part (21"wheels, cf, geography etc.). The factory is kind of like a chef getting tons of orders at once and just picking which meals to make in whatever order is best for him, regardless of who placed their order first. Assuming that they get ramped up to 400 cars/week soon, it shouldn't impact delivery times too much (and not nearly as much as it did the out of order Sigs), and you'll drive yourself crazy trying to figure out why one car is ahead or behind in line relative to where it "should" be.

 

[bosgig]

I have a Feb/Mar delivery estimate (P8189). Interestingly, I was told by a Tesla rep that if I order 85kwh with active air, my delivery will likely be in January since those are "in production". I find it surprising, if true, that I would skip that far up. Any others hearing this?

 

[adurstewitz]

I have a Feb/Mar delivery estimate (P8189). Interestingly, I was told by a Tesla rep that if I order 85kwh with active air, my delivery will likely be in January since those are "in production". I find it surprising, if true, that I would skip that far up. Any others hearing this?

Yes, Tesla has said constantly that general production will be built in batches rather than in order. This is why we are seeing huge jumps in the sequence numbers getting there email/VIN right now.

 

[Schlermie]

Since Tesla was having supplier issues for a few months, I have this image of a huge stockpile of partially built cars arrayed into a corner of their facility someplace. Now that the supplier issues are mostly resolved, they can start completing those partially built vehicles, but they can only access the ones at the edge of their stockpile, because the others are painted into a corner. As a result, the cars end up getting completed in a random order as they start pulling cars from the edge of the array.

 

[artsci]

I have a Feb/Mar delivery estimate (P8189). Interestingly, I was told by a Tesla rep that if I order 85kwh with active air, my delivery will likely be in January since those are "in production". I find it surprising, if true, that I would skip that far up. Any others hearing this?

Not what I was told. I ordered 85kwh with active air and my delivery range is Feb/March.

 

[austinm3]

This is a puzzle, theoretically since you don't have carbon fiber, you should be getting notified like the other "P's" with 85KWh- there must be something else... I too put down my deposit within a day or so of the original announcement - I was away on a business trip and did it from my laptop in a hotel room. I'm in Florida, even farther from Fremont,CA than Kentucky I think I'll just wait until I'm notified and then will post again... What else can we do but wait and hope?

I reached out to them again today, and they are looking into it. They told me that there should be nothing in the way of my being in production since they are producing cars like mine right now (mine is very similar to a signature ... basically maxed out). However, he still did not have a VIN or delivery range even though all paperwork is in order, and there seems to be no reason for me not have been contacted.

 

[ModelS1079]

That is awesome, Robert! haven't heard anything yet but i'm checking my email every six seconds. i'm going to stay optimistic and hope that they're going to put my car on your delivery truck. i'll keep you posted. (p1675 - silver, black leather interior, 85kwh, sound and tech package, air suspension)

A Tesla Convoy to Massachusetts would be perfect. Spoke w Tesla and looks like my delivery window will not be available for still a couple of weeks, but "very likely" to be delivered this year. I'll go with that.

 

[PureAmps]

I have a Feb/Mar delivery estimate (P8189). Interestingly, I was told by a Tesla rep that if I order 85kwh with active air, my delivery will likely be in January since those are "in production". I find it surprising, if true, that I would skip that far up. Any others hearing this?

I have the same delivery estimate of Feb/Mar, and had been assuming that means an April delivery based on the delivery rate of signature vehicles and the publicly stated production ramp. But several recent events have led me to believe I will be getting my vehicle sooner rather than later.

The first indication was that Solar City moved up my EV plug installation by two months. They contacted me in late October saying I had no vehicle delivery date, so it would be weeks before my installation would be completed. Then less than a week later (and the day after the Tesla earnings release), they called me up and said that based on my vehicle's delivery date they wanted to schedule installation ASAP. The work was completed the following week. I really didn't think much of it at the time, but something increased their sense of urgency.

Obviously the flurry of general production activity in the past couple of days is a strong indication that production is ramping quite well, despite apparent shortages of certain trim components.

The final piece of evidence for me was watching the Nat Geo manufacturing video and their recent talk of price increases. I have always suspected that Tesla was low-balling their 20k/year vehicle number to set expectations low in case of problems with manufacturing, low demand, etc. They clearly do not have a demand problem, North America alone can easily consume 20k/year based on reservations rates. The price increase further shows that demand is not a problem, as they are already optimizing profit margins. And after watching the video, they clearly can churn out way more than 20k cars a year on that line, assuming supply chain issues are worked out. In one segment of the video they showed a step in final assembly where the team was trying to complete that step in under 4 minutes and 40 secs. If you are only producing 400 cars/week over two shifts you do not need station cycle times under 5 minutes. That's less than 32 hours/week of work on that one station (basically less than one shift).

So while I don't expect my car in January, I'm thinking February is now a more realistic possibility...

 

[HFh]

Same here, I'm 7889... but, I have carbon fiber. Is that's what is holding us back?

 

[Lyon]

I reached out to Tesla yesterday about my delivery date and got a reply today. Nothing new to report, only that I would be contacted 2-4 weeks in advance and that I'm still looking at a January delivery. That feels like a long way away but I'm looking at my calendar and it's really not. Even if it's more like the middle of February (what I'm expecting) it's still not that far away.

For further reference I ordered: Blue/Tan/Matte Obeche, Performance, Silver 21", spoiler, Tech, dual chargers, sound, jumpseats, paint armor. Pretty sure I only left off the parcel shelf and the HPWC.