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Model X Depreciation....WoW!

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I was watching the resale values on Model Ss for about 6 months. I noticed the Pxx models depreciate much faster than the non-Ps. The Performance models are a different market from the lower trim cars and there is a lot of turn over of the Performance models as new features come out. Performance buyers tend to want the latest and greatest and enough have essentially unlimited funds, so they flip their cars.

When the dual drive cars came out, the P85s and P85+s flooded the used market. When the P90DL became available, P85Ds flooded the used market. Now the "slow poke" P90DLs are going to get dumped as people upgrade to the P100DL.

I doubt the non-performance cars have depreciated as much, though all cars depreciate by $7500 because of the rebate.
 
I am not a tax attorney and this is not tax or legal advice. You need to be careful claiming a federal EV credit on a vehicle which you dispose of in a short amount of time. IRC 30D states that a vehicle can not be for resale and if you are audited there's a good chance the auditor will see that you only had the vehicle for X short days/weeks and say your intent was for resale and not for use regardless of reality and then deny or clawback the credit. And it would probably cost you more than $7500 to take them to court to challenge it.

Pro Tip: Don't get audited.

26 U.S. Code § 30D - New qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicles
 
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I forgot the tax credit. That would make the depreciation 17.2%. Still high but not as bad as before.
Ebay prices (completed sales) for the X aren't so bad - and they're a tad higher than the MS. The thing is, the X isn't a 'limited production' car like the 918 spyder - msrp $800K + ... now going for over $1M.
But I thought the 90's were upgradable ... and w/ under 1K miles, there's no way Tesla could argue they have to replace the pack.
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Ebay prices (completed sales) for the X aren't so bad - and they're a tad higher than the MS. The thing is, the X isn't a 'limited production' car like the 918 spyder - msrp $800K + ... now going for over $1M.
But I thought the 90's were upgradable ... and w/ under 1K miles, there's no way Tesla could argue they have to replace the pack.
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The 90s are upgradable, but with a new battery pack only. The 100 pack is a brand new design with a different configuration and more battery cells.

Technically the used 90 pack could go into another car, but Tesla insists on taking back the old packs for recycling. They will not install used parts in a car (except a temporary battery swap, which isn't done anymore).
 
The 90s are upgradable, but with a new battery pack only. The 100 pack is a brand new design with a different configuration and more battery cells.

Technically the used 90 pack could go into another car, but Tesla insists on taking back the old packs for recycling. They will not install used parts in a car (except a temporary battery swap, which isn't done anymore).

I called my local SC and asked if I could upgrade to the new 100 battery pack and they said no. They said I must have a P90DL to upgrade. I just have the regular 90D. I think my plan is to just keep my X and in three years trade it on the latest and greatest. Like I said before maybe by then they will have a P200DL
 
I called my local SC and asked if I could upgrade to the new 100 battery pack and they said no. They said I must have a P90DL to upgrade. I just have the regular 90D. I think my plan is to just keep my X and in three years trade it on the latest and greatest. Like I said before maybe by then they will have a P200DL
This could help P90DL owners for resale. It allows prospective buyers to upgrade the the latest and greatest for 20,000. Finally, an advantage to owning Ludicrous! At 20,000 for upgrade the price comes to about the same as the new P100L ($165,000 loaded). Anyone buying a used one would actually get the best at a discount.
 
so I called my advisor today to have him run some numbers on trading my 3 week old 90D in on a P100D. I figured I would take a 10% to 15% hit. It has 540 miles. Imagine when he quoted me a 23% hit! I almost fell over. I thought Land Rovers were bad but I think Tesla wins with the fastest depreciation. 23 friggen percent!!!

You cannot base any cars value on a below wholesale trade in value.
 
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Humm, trying to trade in a luxury car after a couple weeks is bound to result in a huge loss... I mean if you bought say a 110k MSRP 750i today and tried to go back late Sep. and sell it to the dealership, I think you ll be lucky to get an offer in the low 80s...
 
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You think this is bad? When the Model 3 hits the market and people have them delivered, Tesla is going to depreciate in general extremely fast. Not to even mention when there are other EV from other car brands.

I just recently traded my 2016 RRS SCV8 purchased in April and only lost overall 10K from the purchase price. Not bad, but not like a Tesla...
 
I appreciate I was able to take advantage of the $7,500 fed tax credit (and will again soon later this year), but I also won't be incredibly sad when it finally does expire. It plays havoc with resale values of EVs...especially when you toss in state incentives.

When/if the fed credit does expire, does that automatically mean used EV values will suddenly jump $7,500? Or something close to that?
 
so I called my advisor today to have him run some numbers on trading my 3 week old 90D in on a P100D. I figured I would take a 10% to 15% hit. It has 540 miles. Imagine when he quoted me a 23% hit! I almost fell over. I thought Land Rovers were bad but I think Tesla wins with the fastest depreciation. 23 friggen percent!!!
Anyone who would trade in a 90D for a 100D doesn't care about money antway
 
Depreciation of electric vehicles is high do to a perceived loss of battery capacity, or uncertainty in that. This is likely to continue until there is firm data that it isn't the case (assuming that's the fact).

That said, depreciation on 6 month old $100,000 cars is always going to be high. It will be presumed that owner's don't care about their (or other people's) money.

Thank you kindly.
 
You think this is bad? When the Model 3 hits the market and people have them delivered, Tesla is going to depreciate in general extremely fast. Not to even mention when there are other EV from other car brands.

I just recently traded my 2016 RRS SCV8 purchased in April and only lost overall 10K from the purchase price. Not bad, but not like a Tesla...

I'm not sure, it could go either way. Right now Tesla is moderately well known, but not on a lot of people's radar. When the M3 comes out a lot of neighborhoods that have never seen a Tesla will have one on the block and that person will be showing off their car to all the neighbors setting off a firestorm of word of mouth activity.

Tesla will already be backed up with M3 orders and that could push demand much, much higher. People with enough money to afford a used S might keep the resale prices of Ss up for at least a while until the demand gets filled.

On the other hand, the MS and M3 might be too close in features and demand for new Ss could fall off a cliff which could then hurt the used market too.

I appreciate I was able to take advantage of the $7,500 fed tax credit (and will again soon later this year), but I also won't be incredibly sad when it finally does expire. It plays havoc with resale values of EVs...especially when you toss in state incentives.

When/if the fed credit does expire, does that automatically mean used EV values will suddenly jump $7,500? Or something close to that?

It probably won't be immediate, but it probably will buoy up prices a bit.

Depreciation of electric vehicles is high do to a perceived loss of battery capacity, or uncertainty in that. This is likely to continue until there is firm data that it isn't the case (assuming that's the fact).

That said, depreciation on 6 month old $100,000 cars is always going to be high. It will be presumed that owner's don't care about their (or other people's) money.

Thank you kindly.

As I said above, the depreciation on non-P Model Ss is not that sharp at all. Especially the dual motor cars with AP. Anyone who has done any research knows Tesla batteries don't degrade much, usually about 5% in the first year, then levels out. The batteries on Nissan Leafs have degraded more because their battery management is poor compared to Tesla. It's probably worse in hot climates than milder ones, but used Leafs can be picked up for a song.

I just checked sold listings on Ebay. I see a used S70D that went for $65K, another that went for $68K. A post refresh 70D (upgradable to 75D) for $73,800. An X75D that went for $85,990. There is one S85D that sold for $68K but I think there is something wrong with it, it sold more than once and another S85D that went for $70K. It had an accident apparently and in the listing the owner needed to sell quick due to a work transfer to Europe.

The P cars and smaller battery cars come up for resale a lot more than the 85Ds and 90Ds. I was watching the market before I bought for a used S90D and there were very few. The few that were available were going for less than $7500 off the original price. There are so few Xs for sale it's difficult to price them from the open market.

If the OP really wanted to sell their X, they could do better selling in the direct market than trading it into Tesla.
 
Hmmm I am not a tax attorney either but as long as you have the paperwork to prove you bought the car and claimed the credit, that's all there is. I would love to take the case where they argue 'but your intent was to sell it' based on one transaction and (here is the key) you point to a loss on your part. Your counter argument would be, no, no intent to resell at time of purchase, AND I do, post purchase, have the right to change my mind. Pound sand dudes.

Now if they can point to you owning a used car business and/or you doing 3+ transactions a year for many yrs, maybe yes, they could prove intent. But they are so not going to bother you with one transaction.

Proving intent is going to be hard for the IRS, they know it and they have the burden of proof. They have limited amounts of resources - they're going to hunt bigger, easier game.
 
It's really an odd market still, markups occur for but I think knowledgable persons know what to pay. For example, on eBay right now, there are X P90s, marked up or close to new prices.

There are 2 90Ds listed as well. 1 at a dealer, asking $124,800,which they would likely take around $114K or less, but that is more than new. Most 90Ds run in the $113k range with most options, and then have a tax credit that you wouldn't get on this used dealer one with 2K miles. You could get a new inventory for around $106K with tax credit and that many miles - at most.

The other 90D is a private party asking $110K, which isn't reasonable either due to not having tax credit, having 4K miles on it. They should be asking about $95K a most. There are two bids for 90K on it right now and reserve isn't met. So if sells soon for low 90s seems pretty reasonable with not too much depreciation like a normal car even.

Perhaps when the X is more common, when there is a1##D standard X, and new AP hardware comes out then another 10% depreciation would hit, but it shouldn't be much more than that - as its still 99% of what you need, a great driving car, etc.
 
I was watching the resale values on Model Ss for about 6 months. I noticed the Pxx models depreciate much faster than the non-Ps. The Performance models are a different market from the lower trim cars and there is a lot of turn over of the Performance models as new features come out. Performance buyers tend to want the latest and greatest and enough have essentially unlimited funds, so they flip their cars.

When the dual drive cars came out, the P85s and P85+s flooded the used market. When the P90DL became available, P85Ds flooded the used market. Now the "slow poke" P90DLs are going to get dumped as people upgrade to the P100DL.

I doubt the non-performance cars have depreciated as much, though all cars depreciate by $7500 because of the rebate.
That has been true for nearly every example I can think of in high performance anything (cars, boats and airplanes come to mind). Donald Trump knows about that since he always buys aircraft used. His Citation X, for example is one of the oldest in use (SN 23) and was worth ~2.5 million ($14 million new) when he bought it very, very used from Netjets. All of us could make great deals if we did not care about actual performance and just cared about image. A 2012 Model S would be comparable in comparison. His B757 though is 25 years old and was owned by two airlines that went broke then flown by Paul Allen for 15 years. He then spent lots of money making it look good. The people who buy those do get good deals, but many buyers really want the latest and greatest. Those with the oldest refurbished S do have a car that looks new to idle observers, and does have cheap price as an advantage. Buying new does carry a depreciation penalty; always has; probably always will.
 
It's really an odd market still, markups occur for but I think knowledgable persons know what to pay. For example, on eBay right now, there are X P90s, marked up or close to new prices.

There are 2 90Ds listed as well. 1 at a dealer, asking $124,800,which they would likely take around $114K or less, but that is more than new. Most 90Ds run in the $113k range with most options, and then have a tax credit that you wouldn't get on this used dealer one with 2K miles. You could get a new inventory for around $106K with tax credit and that many miles - at most.

The other 90D is a private party asking $110K, which isn't reasonable either due to not having tax credit, having 4K miles on it. They should be asking about $95K a most. There are two bids for 90K on it right now and reserve isn't met. So if sells soon for low 90s seems pretty reasonable with not too much depreciation like a normal car even.

Perhaps when the X is more common, when there is a1##D standard X, and new AP hardware comes out then another 10% depreciation would hit, but it shouldn't be much more than that - as its still 99% of what you need, a great driving car, etc.

When the first second hand Xs became available, they went for a premium and a few people made a profit. There are still some people chasing those prices, but with X production in close to full flow now, that's a pipe dream.

People can ask anything they like on Ebay. To get an idea of what people are willing to pay, you have to look at the items that sold. There are always some outliers in the high and low range, but if you have enough examples, you can usually get an idea what the market value really is.