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Model X Financing questions

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Would like to hear why others went any other direction
My math shows $6,900 cheaper to buy over first 36 month period assuming 49% resale of MSRP. If you get the 52% that lease is based on then you're at $10k advantage over lease. Also, any paint protection, seat back protection, tinting, etc is completely lost in lease turn in. I don't see any numbers from Sukhi. Can you link to the post? All I see is he says it's $8k cheaper. Lease APR is > 4% and Buy APR is < 2%
 
My math shows $6,900 cheaper to buy over first 36 month period assuming 49% resale of MSRP. If you get the 52% that lease is based on then you're at $10k advantage over lease. Also, any paint protection, seat back protection, tinting, etc is completely lost in lease turn in. I don't see any numbers from Sukhi. Can you link to the post? All I see is he says it's $8k cheaper. Lease APR is > 4% and Buy APR is < 2%

Logaintx,
Here is my worksheet. Of course I need only 10k miles so that changes the math a lot. I do not recall saying 8K cheaper but 3 year TCO is definitely cheaper.
Tesla MX TCO lend vs lease
 
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Such: Got the spreadsheet. Thanks so much and I am going to start working on it soon. Tesla told me that the guarantee buy back is 50% of base (with/without Fed tax credit?) and 40 % of options. My $112,200 x90 gets $53,300 at end of 36-39 months. Thinking about it....

It is 50% of the base price plus 45% of the options price. The fed tax credit etc., has no wearing on this.
 
It's definitely NOT cheaper.
My 3 year cost on my $112,900 MSRP X will be
36 payments of $1,591 for 6 year loan at 1.99% = $57,276 + $5k down + Taxes $7,056 = $69,332 - Rebate = $61,832
My loan balance would be 49.1% of MSRP after 36 months.
Tesla's site shows my lease would cost me 36 payments of $1,454 = $52,344 + $7,149 down + Taxes = $66,549
That's almost $5k more for the lease and if my X only had 30k miles on it it would be worth more than 49%.
 
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It's definitely NOT cheaper.
My 3 year cost on my $112,900 MSRP X will be
36 payments of $1,591 for 6 year loan at 1.99% = $57,276 + Taxes $7,056 = $64,332 - Rebate = $56,832
My loan balance would be 49.1% of MSRP after 36 months.
Tesla's site shows my lease would cost me 36 payments of $1,454 = $52,344 + $7,149 down + Taxes = $66,549
That's almost $10k more for the lease and if my X only had 30k miles on it it would be worth more than 49%.

I think we should just end this debate as we seem to be talking past each other. My sheet clearly shows that the TCO for my scenario is different than yours. You have higher taxes on lease plus much higher mileage. Different assumptions lead to different end point.
 
sounds like bottom line may be sales taxes in ca and 2500 state incentive might make or break the difference? the 2500 here is disappearing now after the mar31 cutoff so that may tighten the two decisions up but the sales tax... Hmmm