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Model X reveal impact on TSLA
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
Didn't you here 25% of X reservation holders will cancel if seat does not fold perfectly flat?
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Isn't that a good thing? There will be a big list of new X purchasers who will get their Model X sooner. Those that have been holding off until the reveal to order will be quite happy.
sub
Active Member
The second row seat hysteria seems to be calming down a bit, maybe it was the mocking by other forum members are those that were up in arms realizing it's a seat.
I think the hysteria has burnt itself out in part, because there's only so much speculation that can be done based on the limited available information.
Also, the announcement of the full reveal event on the night of the 29th means that we (TMC collectively) know that Tesla will definitively answer our questions on the 29th. I personally don't feel the need to speculate more now, because I know that there's now a definite conclusion point to all the wrangling. It's just a matter of patience now, and in the meantime, the iPhone 6S launch is providing plenty of side entertainment.
I suspect that others may feel similarly.
Agree. If the reveal shows that the trunk only has 65" of space, the seats don't do anything special like rotate and there are no plans for any other seats anytime soon, we will start to see cancellations. And then the forum will decend into madness.
larmor
Active Member
The thread may go out of control, but IMHO, the MX was designed for the task of taking people around, and likely in the safest way possible. From what was learned from the MS, for the general population, and for convincing our better halves to drop 100k+ on a car, safety is the utmost concern. If the seats fold or don't fold, not sure if that matters as much to the public as does safety or potential safety.
SUV purchases were, at one time, driven by the perceived safety advantages.
SUV purchases were, at one time, driven by the perceived safety advantages.
FWIW it looks to me that the 2nd row will pull forwards and rotate all the way backwards on a hydraulic in the stalk, coming to rest with the back horizontal with the upholstery facing upwards. Probably the upholstery is protected by the third row folding forwards. The base of the second row is shaped in a way that seems to match to the rear of the first row in that position. Looking at the electrical control on the side of the seat I think this is highly likely. If it did not provide a reclining function it would have made more sense to put a bar to push backwards or forwards rather than a representation of the entire seat that invites the action of turning it. I think if this is the case, as seems likely to me at least, and therefore a big deal for reveal day because it is actually really cool, then Tesla staff will have been under orders to give no hint of it under questioning on pain of stealing Elon's thunder.
It is obviously a combination of exciting times and irritating times for people that have waited a very long time for the first cars - both reactions understandable. Not to be confused with regards the stock reaction considering that numerically very few people are actually in either of those positions as a proportion of the investor base. From a more birds eye view, product wise, the seats are going to be one of a number of features, some not yet discussed. Personally I am interested in shock and awe with things like SUV class leading wading depth and hill climb angle that will likely demolish anything that has ever gone before it. Fundamentals wise there are a lot of reservation holders that would be only too delighted to move up in line even if every irritated Sig holder ups and leaves instead of the more probable reaction of OMG standing ovation. Either way the company is very much in control here. The one nervy thing for short term traders is that general config is not yet open (as far as I know), I am a sedan guy regardless. The lack of general config can be taken in one of two ways. 1. The company is so confident of a gold rush upon opening general configuration (and the public-facing design studio) that they can prioritize the big reveal above any and all other consideration. 2. They are further behind schedule than even the revised 50-55K units previously guided for end of year expectations.
If I was going to guess, I think they will make the end of year numbers primarily on Model S regardless, Model X may be incrementally behind but they will scoop the automotive and general media world with the X and cap it with a few insane rocket landings. The upgraded engine on the F9 should allow it to manage a controlled hovering descent on one engine more like the grasshopper rather than behaving like a dart hitting a dart board. I think the mood across Musk industries for the remainder of the year will be upbeat like a rerun of 2013. For those that remember, the market did not enjoy the big spend before the Model S launch either, but it definitely made up for it afterwards.
It is obviously a combination of exciting times and irritating times for people that have waited a very long time for the first cars - both reactions understandable. Not to be confused with regards the stock reaction considering that numerically very few people are actually in either of those positions as a proportion of the investor base. From a more birds eye view, product wise, the seats are going to be one of a number of features, some not yet discussed. Personally I am interested in shock and awe with things like SUV class leading wading depth and hill climb angle that will likely demolish anything that has ever gone before it. Fundamentals wise there are a lot of reservation holders that would be only too delighted to move up in line even if every irritated Sig holder ups and leaves instead of the more probable reaction of OMG standing ovation. Either way the company is very much in control here. The one nervy thing for short term traders is that general config is not yet open (as far as I know), I am a sedan guy regardless. The lack of general config can be taken in one of two ways. 1. The company is so confident of a gold rush upon opening general configuration (and the public-facing design studio) that they can prioritize the big reveal above any and all other consideration. 2. They are further behind schedule than even the revised 50-55K units previously guided for end of year expectations.
If I was going to guess, I think they will make the end of year numbers primarily on Model S regardless, Model X may be incrementally behind but they will scoop the automotive and general media world with the X and cap it with a few insane rocket landings. The upgraded engine on the F9 should allow it to manage a controlled hovering descent on one engine more like the grasshopper rather than behaving like a dart hitting a dart board. I think the mood across Musk industries for the remainder of the year will be upbeat like a rerun of 2013. For those that remember, the market did not enjoy the big spend before the Model S launch either, but it definitely made up for it afterwards.
Julian, stop making sense, please!
Now back to our regular programming, the season premiere of Foldgate.
Now back to our regular programming, the season premiere of Foldgate.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
My guess is that Tesla did extensive research that determined just moving the seats forward up against the front seats was good enough for 95% of potential buyers, and that having the seats move in that way to allow easy 3rd row access was more important to those buyers.
My guess is that Tesla did extensive research of their cash flow that determined that they really needed to get the X released and that moving the seats forward up against the front seats was good enough for enough of the potential buyers that it stop the bleeding while they sorted out the really nifty flat-folding seats.
Trev Page
Member
Perhaps but they just added the option to have seating for 6 instead of 7 by removing the middle second row seat. New pictures from the design centre show the second row seats moved all the way forward as well as tipping forward or moving forward and down, this is not clear yet. Keep in mind, all of of the options for Model X Signature series show the fancy second row seats as standard. What we don't know at this time is if general production seats will be the same or fold flat. Knowing Tesla my guess is that all Model X production cars will have the same seats. Pure and simple. Over time that might change given how many changes they've made to Model S over the years.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Except that simple flat folding seats copied from other SUV designs would have been easier and cheaper than the powered seats that move forward on pedestals.
My guess is that they did extensive research of their business objectives and decided that it made sense to do an uncompromising job of the Model X even it required digging deep into cash flows to do it because the most solid foundation for massive compound growth is reinvestment in superlative excellence in R&D that is evident the product. That way you get to bank and multiply 20+ thousand reservations and get to concentrate on the Gigafactory and R&D for Model 3 without having to revisit Model X as a job half done and a bunch of problems to manage.
Are the moderators on holiday? The forum for the disaffected shorts is at Stock Market Insights | Seeking Alpha
The seats don't just move forwards they also tilt forwards. You don't need that cut out at the front of the pedestal to tilt the seat forwards. That cutout is needed to extend a hydraulic arm when tilting the seat backwards all the way flat. Either that or Musk has had a personality transplant and now all they care about is cash flow statements on quarterly reports.
What I think is a shame is to see the mood here affected by the miserable bears. It is abundantly obvious that a company with one product (Model S) that is prepping manufacturing capacity and global sales service and charging support to double the vehicle product line and launch two additional product lines in fixed storage is going to be spending cash in advance of the commencement of sales.
Naturally people that have lost their shirts shorting Tesla - like Mark Spiegel or Anton Wahlman for example (if those guys are even for real considering if what they says is true they ought to have been insolvent long ago), guys like this are going to try to paint the picture that pre-launch cash flows are the real deal and a solid future trend and post launch cash flows don't exist anywhere in time or space.
Back in reality, Tesla is transitioning from having one very successful product that has met all of the business plan goals to date for Model X and Model S sales combined (see 2012 shareholders meeting) - to borrow an ICE analogy, going before the end of this year from firing on one cylinder to firing on three cylinders. Tesla Model S. Tesla Model X. Tesla Energy. That's a HUGE deal. It is not just three times as good as just selling Model S, it is the transformation of Model X and Tesla Energy from cash flow negative loss centers that Model S is struggling to pay for, to doing a complete 180 and adding TWO additional cash flow positive profit centers alongside Model S.
Just to depict profit and cost centers of the business pre and post sales launch of X and TE.
Pre Launch: Model S - Model X - Tesla Energy = -1
Post Lauch: Model S + Model X + Tesla Energy = +3
Something to think about.
What I think is a shame is to see the mood here affected by the miserable bears. It is abundantly obvious that a company with one product (Model S) that is prepping manufacturing capacity and global sales service and charging support to double the vehicle product line and launch two additional product lines in fixed storage is going to be spending cash in advance of the commencement of sales.
Naturally people that have lost their shirts shorting Tesla - like Mark Spiegel or Anton Wahlman for example (if those guys are even for real considering if what they says is true they ought to have been insolvent long ago), guys like this are going to try to paint the picture that pre-launch cash flows are the real deal and a solid future trend and post launch cash flows don't exist anywhere in time or space.
Back in reality, Tesla is transitioning from having one very successful product that has met all of the business plan goals to date for Model X and Model S sales combined (see 2012 shareholders meeting) - to borrow an ICE analogy, going before the end of this year from firing on one cylinder to firing on three cylinders. Tesla Model S. Tesla Model X. Tesla Energy. That's a HUGE deal. It is not just three times as good as just selling Model S, it is the transformation of Model X and Tesla Energy from cash flow negative loss centers that Model S is struggling to pay for, to doing a complete 180 and adding TWO additional cash flow positive profit centers alongside Model S.
Just to depict profit and cost centers of the business pre and post sales launch of X and TE.
Pre Launch: Model S - Model X - Tesla Energy = -1
Post Lauch: Model S + Model X + Tesla Energy = +3
Something to think about.
Krugerrand
Meow
This makes sense given that Tesla has 'consolidated/reduced' options several times for ease, economics and expediting.
Tesla has said repeatedly to several Signature reservation holders that the seats don't rotate or form a flat floor in any way. I'm not sure I prefer Tesla lying to Tesla not having a flat platform for cargo in the Model X. (Okay, maybe I do - if they lie, that'll be forgotten in three months, but impractical seats can affect the reception of the Model X. But still, that's pretty bad.)
As a Model X reservation holder and Tesla investor with about 60% of my portfolio in TSLA (and 30-35% of my net worth), I seriously hope that Tesla has something up their sleeve regarding the 2nd row seats. But all the evidence points to there not being some magic trick involved. I am fairly sure Tesla's immediate response to foldgate is the 6 seat configuration. And while they may be working on foldable 2nd row bench seats or an upgraded 2 seat second row configuration ("captains' chairs" or 2nd row center console), I doubt we will see any information about this tomorrow.
As a Model X reservation holder and Tesla investor with about 60% of my portfolio in TSLA (and 30-35% of my net worth), I seriously hope that Tesla has something up their sleeve regarding the 2nd row seats. But all the evidence points to there not being some magic trick involved. I am fairly sure Tesla's immediate response to foldgate is the 6 seat configuration. And while they may be working on foldable 2nd row bench seats or an upgraded 2 seat second row configuration ("captains' chairs" or 2nd row center console), I doubt we will see any information about this tomorrow.
Also in the category of what Tesla has said repeatedly to several Sig holders: no reveal event on the 29th.
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