Model X Tally

[Mayhemm]

The sig red is just so darn nice!

So Tesla resurrected Signature Red for the X? Nicely done.

 

[evmile]

Hi...

I would like to propose a table total format (as shown below) instead of the current tally. This way we an see/track totals for Signature vs. Production for North America vs. other markets. I've added it at the bottom of the current wiki Tally. It'll be a little more work with updating the row and column total each time, but I find it useful to know the breakdown subtotals. Thoughts?

Model X Tally	USA	Canada	North America		Europe		Grand Total
Signature (S)	631	13	644		12		656
Production (P)	5,196	171	5,367		535		5,902
Totals	5,827	184	5,998		547		6,558

Interesting to see that the EU interest in the Model X is 10% of the NA interest.

I guess SUVs - even electric ones - are a NA only favorite. I guess that is why MB and BMW build their SUVs over here.

 

[felixtb]

Interesting to see that the EU interest in the Model X is 10% of the NA interest.

I guess SUVs - even electric ones - are a NA only favorite. I guess that is why MB and BMW build their SUVs over here.

I do not think it reflects the true EU market yet since there is no real brand awareness yet (no cars on the road) as you have in NA at this point. I think the Scandinavian and the alpine markers will jump quite a lot once people become more aware of TESLA as a brand. I suspect around 25-30% of the NA market would be more correct

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

I believe there are many folks in Norway interested in the X more than in the S but, may be waiting for a few Ss on the road there and the Supercharger network to be built out further too (they have one already).

Also, the falcon wings are a bit of an unknown (till initial US buyers shake any bugs out of them) and the interplay with Ski racks, bike racks and such (which Elon said they are already trying to address) needs to be understood too.

 

[NigelM]

So Tesla resurrected Signature Red for the X? Nicely done.

I think that's still an unknown.

 

[brianman]

So Tesla resurrected Signature Red for the X? Nicely done.

I think that's still an unknown.

The art on the pages for the X suggest it's still Sig Red, but that may just be early art rather than a hint at a committed color.

 

[Paul Carter]

Finally, a bump in the Canadian Production #s. (Tally Updated) Up 45 since March.... slow and steady she goes....

 

[TT_Lambo]

Can someone please help answer how the reservation number differs from the VIN? I understand a few other members have been tracking production by VIN, but is it safe to apply the same methodology to the reservation number? I am assuming a VIN hasn't been assigned yet for the X, hence using the reservation number as a metric.

 

[Paul Carter]

Can someone please help answer how the reservation number differs from the VIN? I understand a few other members have been tracking production by VIN, but is it safe to apply the same methodology to the reservation number? I am assuming a VIN hasn't been assigned yet for the X, hence using the reservation number as a metric.

Not an expert, but here are my observations so far. Please take this and these numbers with a "grain of salt" as well warned in the Tallies for both the Model S and Model X!

Reservation Numbers come from a commitment to purchase, i.e. a refundable deposit. Since they can get refunded, upgraded or even cannibalized (switch to a Model S from an X, X Production to Signature), the reservation numbers can only really give you a sense of the numbers of reservations made to date. I don't think these numbers are in no way accurate reflection of what has been 'sold'. Since no VINs would be issued yet for the Model X, so we only have these reservation sequence numbers to go by. (Tesla doesn't seem to publish the Model X sales pipeline either). However, it just might help give an idea of how long of a wait it'll be given the backlog once production starts. It might be also interesting to compute the # of sales per month to predict some primarily annual sales projections. However I would say they would not be really reflective of what will happen as its very early in the game. Based on the numbers right now, I would even hazard to guess we are 6 months sold into 2015 right now and about 50-60% sold out of the Signatures.

As far as Model S goes, VIN numbers did appear however to be issued sequentially, but I think as of late the VIN gaps are showing. Thus I would conclude you can't trust VIN sequences to give you the accurate numbers either. Again heed the warning that these can be taken with a "grain of salt".

The official production numbers from Telsa (via their website, SEC filings, press releases, etc...) are as best true numbers you could trust. However, they are stale (released well after the fact).

Hope that helps.

 

[fengshui]

Can someone please help answer how the reservation number differs from the VIN? I understand a few other members have been tracking production by VIN, but is it safe to apply the same methodology to the reservation number? I am assuming a VIN hasn't been assigned yet for the X, hence using the reservation number as a metric.

The reservation number tracks the number of reservations ever issued for the Model X. It is not reduced in the event of cancellations, upgrades to Signature, or other changes. There is also probably a list of pre-Signature reservations for Tesla Staff, Elon, etc. When production begins, Signature reservations will be produced in mostly numeric order. Once general production begins, vehicles will be produced in batches of colors and options, and those allocated to customers in order of their reservation. That means that if you're reservation 500, and not many people want the green color, someone with a reservation number higher than 500 could get their car first if they selected an option set that matches what Tesla produces, or if someone with a lower reservation and an exact match for their options wasn't able to get financing after production was complete.

One other thing I remembered after seeing Pauls post above. Test drive and loaner vehicles also consume VINs but not reservations.

 

[evmile]

The reservation number tracks the number of reservations ever issued for the Model X. It is not reduced in the event of cancellations, upgrades to Signature, or other changes. There is also probably a list of pre-Signature reservations for Tesla Staff, Elon, etc. When production begins, Signature reservations will be produced in mostly numeric order. Once general production begins, vehicles will be produced in batches of colors and options, and those allocated to customers in order of their reservation. That means that if you're reservation 500, and not many people want the green color, someone with a reservation number higher than 500 could get their car first if they selected an option set that matches what Tesla produces, or if someone with a lower reservation and an exact match for their options wasn't able to get financing after production was complete.

One other thing I remembered after seeing Pauls post above. Test drive and loaner vehicles also consume VINs but not reservations.

When I took the factory tour they told us they do not produce batches of cars by color. They can produce each color one at a time. That is in fact what we saw on the production line - a random series of colors.

In general the factory produces each car with whatever options are ordered - no need to batch.

If you order certain options (such as 60 kWh battery) that can delay your order.

 

[fengshui]

When I took the factory tour they told us they do not produce batches of cars by color. They can produce each color one at a time. That is in fact what we saw on the production line - a random series of colors.

In general the factory produces each car with whatever options are ordered - no need to batch.

If you order certain options (such as 60 kWh battery) that can delay your order.

They may be producing one-at-a-time now, but early in the production they were definitely batching, if not by color, than by battery size, suspension type, etc. (Some of this was because some options weren't available at launch) Color was merely an example of how they could batch.

 

[TT_Lambo]

Thanks guys - helpful insight.

Have you guys put down your orders? Is the deposit $2,500 (similar to the S)?

 

[Paul Carter]

Thanks guys - helpful insight.

Have you guys put down your orders? Is the deposit $2,500 (similar to the S)?

Yes, did a sig res on launch day! Deposits are 5k USD or CAD for Production or 40k for the signature. I guess the deposit would drop to the current Model S level of 2.5k once production is underway like what they did with Model S.

 

[TT_Lambo]

Yes, did a sig res on launch day! Deposits are 5k USD or CAD for Production or 40k for the signature. I guess the deposit would drop to the current Model S level of 2.5k once production is underway like what they did with Model S.

Congrats man! How many sig cars do they plan to produce?

 

[NigelM]

Congrats man! How many sig cars do they plan to produce?

The assumption is 1,200 in N.America, same as with Model S.

 

[TT_Lambo]

The assumption is 1,200 in N.America, same as with Model S.

Thanks. Any idea of how many signature X and S models scheduled for Asia & Europe?

 

[felixtb]

Thanks. Any idea of how many signature X and S models scheduled for Asia & Europe?

there were 500 sigs. for MS in Europe, so probably the same for the MX sig. count. for Asia I have no clue.

 

[NigelM]

Thanks. Any idea of how many signature X and S models scheduled for Asia & Europe?

2,500 worldwide; so 1,300 for the world outside N.A.

 

[Jigsaw]

Booked my X Production yesterday. US P 5491. Now on for another 2 years wait and forum lurking/surfing