Model X Tally

[Paul Carter]

Strange..
The latest post I can see on Norwegian forum is Sig #330 at 2014-05-15. I suspect EU Sig res #422 is wrong.
By the way on Norwegian Tesla site it still says "Estmated delivery summer 2015 for new reservations"

I've emailed the person. I think it must of been 322 and it fits with the other data we have before and after.

- - - Updated - - -

Here you go:

Date	Delivery Guideline	Approximate Res. Count (USA Prod)
5/29/2014	Fall 2015	10,123
4/3/2014	Summer 2015	8,838
12/10/2013	2015	7,000

As well here is the global count

Date	Delivery Guideline	Approximate Res. Count (USA Prod)	Global
5/29/2014	Fall 2015	10,123	15,656
4/3/2014	Summer 2015	8,838	13,307
12/10/2013	2015	7,000	~ 9,900

 

[fengshui]

Here you go:

Date	Delivery Guideline	Approximate Res. Count (USA Prod)
5/29/2014	Fall 2015	10,123
4/3/2014	Summer 2015	8,838
12/10/2013	2015	7,000

Awesome. Thanks. That gives 1285 reservations during the Summer 2015 window, or 428 deliveries per month in Summer of 2015. The math here doesn't really add up. How can they make ~8000 cars for delivery before Summer 2015 if they're only delivering 428 per month in Summer of 2015? We can speculate that some of the 8000 cars will be delivered in and should be counted in the monthly production rate, but they're still going to have to spin up very fast to build ~10k Model X cars before October 1st.

 

[CmdrThor]

Awesome. Thanks. That gives 1285 reservations during the Summer 2015 window, or 428 deliveries per month in Summer of 2015. The math here doesn't really add up. How can they make ~8000 cars for delivery before Summer 2015 if they're only delivering 428 per month in Summer of 2015? We can speculate that some of the 8000 cars will be delivered in and should be counted in the monthly production rate, but they're still going to have to spin up very fast to build ~10k Model X cars before October 1st.

These are rough estimates subject to change put out by Tesla. Those 7,000 are most certainly not getting their cars delivered before Summer 2015. Most likely the sigs and maybe the first few thousand or so general production might get delivered in Spring 2015 if we are lucky. Then if they are at full production by Summer 2015, that should mean about 6,500 cars during the 13 weeks of Summer if they are producing at 500 per week.

All of this is of course subject to change, but if they weren't pretty close to finalizing the design I am not sure they would be putting estimated dates for delivery other than "2015". Using seasons is a good marketing tactic because everyone feels like summer is Memorial Day to Labor Day, but it is really late June to late September, so they get a few extra weeks to deliver and still be accurate.

 

[Blake]

Reserved mine on 16May in China. #1268!!

 

[AlexT]

My wife just asked if we could reserve one based on:
Leaked Model X photos or the lack there of...

I'm just happy to comply... haha...

 

[Paul Carter]

Model X Global Tally approaches 16k!

Stats of as May 2014:

• ~ 16k Global Total (15,923)
• 1,318 in the past month[SUP]1[/SUP]
• 42.5 per day
• Average to Date of 576 per month (5% increase)
• Average to Date of 18.9 per day
• Trend line[SUP]2[/SUP] is now showing we could expect over 1,350 reservations in June!

Footnotes:
1. Spike in monthly rate in March is due to first China Stat of 764.
2. Per month values are spiky due to the nature of the tally not being exact values at the end of the month. Trend line meant to show this smoothed out.

 

[Bgarret]

Thanks Paul...nice work. See you at TMC connect.

 

[Paul Carter]

Thanks Paul...nice work. See you at TMC connect.

Thank-you looking forward to it.

 

[Ocelot]

great graph paul, thanks!

 

[Benz]

Stats of as May 2014:

• ~ 16k Global Total (15,923)
• 1,318 in the past month[SUP]1[/SUP]
• 42.5 per day
• Average to Date of 576 per month (5% increase)
• Average to Date of 18.9 per day
• Trend line[SUP]2[/SUP] is now showing we could expect over 1,350 reservations in June!

View attachment 50746

Footnotes:
1. Spike in monthly rate in March is due to first China Stat of 764.
2. Per month values are spiky due to the nature of the tally not being exact values at the end of the month. Trend line meant to show this smoothed out.

Great graph, could you please give us a monthly update of the graph?

 

[Paul Carter]

Great graph, could you please give us a monthly update of the graph?

Thanks. Will do.

 

[AlMc]

Thanks. Will do.

Not to be too redundant.....But thanks for keeping the tally going and for the excellent graph. I think everyone is getting excited (ansy) about the final reveal/event. There are several of us that will owe you a beer/glass of wine when/if we run into at the event. Thanks Al

 

[Phil Seastrand]

Reserved one today: #10,357

 

[Paul Carter]

Reserved one today: #10,357

Congrats, tally updated. Also welcome to TMC! You're wait time will be likely the shortest so far for a production model if they ramp up quickly. Would say you're looking at 16 to 19 months. Join us at TMC Connect if you like. Was a blast last year and looking forward to attending next month.

 

[Phil Seastrand]

Congrats, tally updated. Also welcome to TMC! You're wait time will be likely the shortest so far for a production model if they ramp up quickly. Would say you're looking at 16 to 19 months. Join us at TMC Connect if you like. Was a blast last year and looking forward to attending next month.

I was hoping to be able to take delivery around the first of 2016, so your estimate is right in line with that -- one of the big reasons I reserved now. I'll check into TMC Connect, thanks!

 

[maoing]

Tally updated from 06/09 China reservation. Exceeding 16000 now!

 

[Jinzion]

S-350 Europe, 10/6/2014

 

[MikeL]

Tally Ho ! ( Just wanted to post on page 100 before it's too late ) :smile:

 

[PoweredByRain]

Tally Ho ! ( Just wanted to post on page 100 before it's too late ) :smile:

Last spot!

On topic: I once had a low-numbered Model X reservation. I got the Model S instead. AWD is going to be awesome, but... just can't wait that long!

 

[MikeL]

Last spot!

On topic: I once had a low-numbered Model X reservation. I got the Model S instead. AWD is going to be awesome, but... just can't wait that long!

Yeah, I decided on the X and have been stubborn in the face of some pretty substantial delays. I REALLY thought, when I made my reservation, that I would have it by now. Some waited much longer for their Tesla (without griping (much)) others make a current Model S order and freak out over "the wait" :tongue:. I'm in there in the middle somewhere. Waiting a little, and griping about it (some).

thousandth post ! Here's to ALL of our Model Xs to come !