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Or they drop by half because the AWD Model S will be announced and I bet over half with just buy a Model S instead of waiting. It'd definitely crossed my mind.
I'd say very good guess. I guess triple the original spike for Feb-12, so that's 1,860.How about at least 2,000 Tesla Model X reservations in October 2014?
It'll be impossible to tell how many drop out since the numbers aren't reused or compressed. I know regardless of what happens, I'm not taking delivery before November 2015, and I'll evaluate S AWD vs X at that time. I would prefer the higher ride height of the X. If they make S AWD only available with the performance package, it will be a non-issue since I have no desire to spend that much more than the base model. Of course, without firm pricing on either it's hard to make that call. Everyone's criteria is different, and I don't expect S AWD to steal too many X reservations.Or they drop by half because the AWD Model S will be announced and I bet over half with just buy a Model S instead of waiting. It'd definitely crossed my mind.
While I understand that Tesla wants this to happen very much, they will get a lot of pissed off customers and press if they limit the "D and something else" to AWD and driver assist technologies. All previous events put Tesla into spotlight as the innovator in the automotive industry. They were cool and groundbreaking. AWD and driver assist technologies are so old and boring at this point that TSLA may get some massive pounding on Friday if that's all they present. This will basically put them into position to play catchup with other car makers. Really not good!
I am going to be royally disappointed if they don't reveal the Model X beta. They announced Model X in Feb of 2012. It will be 3 years this winter... that's more than enough time to bring a car to market, especially if it's based on a current production platform.
P.S. Well... now that I am thinking this through. Since there are 4,000 mAh 18650 cells already on the market, they can announce the new 100kWh battery, which will be a big enough news to make Wall Street go bananas and have current Model S owners to upgrade to the bigger and better D.
So, I am 95% confident that we will see 3 thing on Thursday:
- Dual motor AWD
- Driver Asset Tech
- either Model X or bigger battery or both
@kiefer If you are fast you get the last one. ;-)