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Model X Tally

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Hi Bonnie, with all due respect. they have had them at my local Tesla sales and service center. They are selling them but some have been on the lot for over a month now with window stickers and cleaned up and lined up along the road that I commute past and I checked the Vin #s on a few just to know whether they are the same. Some may be D-caused cancellations of cars. it is above-and-beyond customer service to allow an order to be changed after the car is produced or even hits the service center. Someone here posted they cancelled their P85 when it was at their Toronto sales center in favor of a P85D order. I try to keep private, as an investor, but I do want to know what is going on with the cars and company. The latest delivery looks like all 60 and 85 models without P designation so I have to believe that 60 owners would not have cancelled for a P85D. I swing by there every few weeks and take a look at what is there.

If you want, I can share details in a private message. My feeling is the only way Tesla can grow is to do both. Handle custom orders and drop in some inventory into the larger sales centers to offer "buy it now" solutions to peoples' wants and desires. If a truck is short one car for a busy sales center, add a loaner/inventory on it to try to sell it off the lot. I have a feeling that at some point in the future, California residents will be able to visit Fremont and be able to look at "today's extra production" and buy one on the spot. I just don't think Telsa can rely on custom-orders only as their long-standing future.

I think andrew already answered, above.
 
Model X Tally reaches 23,145 as of November 30, 2014

Stats as of November 30, 2014


  • 23,145 Global Total / 639 in the past month (2.8% increase)
  • 20.6 per day (43% decrease)
    • USA: 16.4 per day (30% decrease)
  • Average to Date of 688 per month / 20.6 per day (<1% decrease)
Model X Global Tally November 2014.png


Stats by Region



Region
Tally on
Nov 30​
Tally
on
Oct
31​
Tally
on
Sep 30​
Tally
on
Aug 31​
Tally
on
July 31

Nov
Per
Day
Oct
Per
Day
Sept
Per
Day
August
Per
Day
July
Per
Day

Lifetime
Average
Per Day
Lifetime
Average
Per Month
Canada916916837774697
02.52.12.57.2
0.927.2
US16,18815,69614,97314,04813,271
16.423.330.825.120.7
15.8480.8
European3,5873,5293,3623,0322,725
1.95.411.09.94.9
3.5106.5
Asia Pacific2,4542,3652,1722,0991,907
3.06.22.46.26.2
2.472.9
Global23,14522,50621,34419,95318,600
20.637.546.443.639.1
22.6687.5
 
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Thanks again, Paul!

Now let's speculate wildly! What caused the big drop in reservations?
  • Dual-Motor announcement pulled reservations to the D?
  • The delay announced in the Quarterly Report pushed reservations to the S?
  • The delay announced in the Quarterly Report pushed people to other cars?
  • Something else?

Let's hear some wild theories!
 
I'd say it's a combination of the D announcement and the further delay. As time goes on without getting any more concrete information about the Model X, it becomes increasingly difficult to capture the attention of new people. Most of those who are willing to buy the Model X sight unseen have already placed their reservations. We won't see a big jump again until the production model reveal or, perhaps more importantly, the design studio launch with pricing and equipment information.

For people who were just wanting AWD, they can order the Model S and have it within 3 months. This is much more appealing than waiting until sometime in 2016 for a Model X. There's also no telling how many existing reservations were converted, so the reduced reservation rate only tells part of the story. I wouldn't be surprised if there really has been a net decrease in the number of reservations.
 
It is definitely the tremendous delay. In the customers eye, they are now playing in the same league like Audi and battling for the crown of the "world announce champion". So it was a loss of trust, too.

If you are planing to buy a car, how long do the most people plan upfront? How long are the most (not crazy) people willing to wait for a new car, once the decision for a new one is made, or their actual leasing/finance ends?

For me, I'm still in the reservation line waiting, but my mental state and especially my wife's understanding for that, are pointing an edge. If they again don't start delivering the X next year, they can start shipping psychiatrists instead of cars.

Personally I think, the possibility to make a reservation, more than 6 month before the final release, also irritates sales of the actual model.

I believe they will change this policy for upcoming Models.

Greetings
Earl

Ps. Thanks again for the stats. And like timf I'm also wishing we could find out, how many of the reservation holders dropped out.
 
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There was a downtrend at the end of last year also, so there may be a seasonal component to orders.

My wife got a call yesterday from Tesla offering sell her a Model S while she was waiting for her Model X. Apparently they would give her a good trade in when the X arrived. She didn't get any further details after she told the person we already have a Model S.

Anyone else get a call like that ?
 
My wife got a call yesterday from Tesla offering sell her a Model S while she was waiting for her Model X. Apparently they would give her a good trade in when the X arrived. She didn't get any further details after she told the person we already have a Model S.

Anyone else get a call like that ?

I'd be tempted. Not sure about the Mrs though.

Perhaps this is Tesla clearing out pre-autopilot or S60 models?
 
My wife and I have talked about how useful a program to lease a Model S until our Model X is shipping would be. Heck - even a SC enabled 60 would do, and if we had the Model S in the garage now, we might discover that it meets our needs just fine.

Unfortunately, we haven't received a phone call like that from our local gallery :)
 
My friend in Canada just reserved Production 924. I've attempted to update the wiki. That is 13 more production Xs in Canada since the last update.

Aside -- while at the dentist yesterday my dentist and another patient told of how they had a total of 3 Xs on reservation for them. I personally know two others in my network with an X reservation.

This thing is going to sell like hotcakes....
 
Not one have posted new reservation numbers in Norway since the D-Event, more people is posting that they have ordered a D and canceled the X. :-(

That would not surprise me, i would not expect the x to sell well outside north america, its far too physically large. I dont know about norway specifically as i have never been, but elsewhere in europe and asia people have much smaller vehicles compared to canada
 
That would not surprise me, i would not expect the x to sell well outside north america, its far too physically large. I dont know about norway specifically as i have never been, but elsewhere in europe and asia people have much smaller vehicles compared to canada

I actually expect the X to do well in europe. we have the Range R and the Q7 which are in the same category seize wise and do very well. but I think many people reserved an X for the 4x4 capability and not for the SUV practicality. so there will be quite a few reservations being reshuffled to Ds for this reason. however, when the X finally arrives the orders will pick up significantly again as a reflection of actually being available to buy rather than a long term "dream"
 
Back when we had the Upgrade snafu I asked if they would be adjusting the reservation numbers and assigning a new one instead of reinstating the original Production number and was told they would not do that because adjustments to the reservation queue is internal corporate info. I suspect if you asked you would get a similar response.