Model X Timeline - From Prototype to Production

[HiTech]

Apparently, there is an article from DigitalTrends stating Tesla is delaying Model X to 2016 (see link below).
I'm not certain this is accurate, rather than "journalists" reporting whatever they want. Can anyone help clarify?

http://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-model-x-new-details/

 

[Zaxxon]

Apparently, there is an article from DigitalTrends stating Tesla is delaying Model X to 2016 (see link below).
I'm not certain this is accurate, rather than "journalists" reporting whatever they want. Can anyone help clarify?

http://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-model-x-new-details/

Given that Musk said this week​ that the X will launch next summer 'for sure', I wouldn't give this much credence.

 

[jkliu47]

Apparently, there is an article from DigitalTrends stating Tesla is delaying Model X to 2016 (see link below).
I'm not certain this is accurate, rather than "journalists" reporting whatever they want. Can anyone help clarify?

http://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-model-x-new-details/

I think they got it wrong - probably just caught the tail end of Elon's discussion about the Model X and its large reservation list - and the fact that if you went online and ordered one now, you have to wait UNTIL 2016 to get the car.

 

[Zaxxon]

I think they got it wrong - probably just caught the tail end of Elon's discussion about the Model X and its large reservation list - and the fact that if you went online and ordered one now, you have to wait UNTIL 2016 to get the car.

Also, this.

 

[Svenssons]

Apparently, there is an article from DigitalTrends stating Tesla is delaying Model X to 2016 (see link below).
I'm not certain this is accurate, rather than "journalists" reporting whatever they want. Can anyone help clarify?

http://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-model-x-new-details/

"Journalists" that don't understand...

Yes, people that make new reservations now, today will not see delivery of their Model X until 2016. The deliveries will however start "this summer" as Elon said just a couple of days ago. He was pretty certain about it. How "journalist" just the day after can write something like "Tesla has once again delayed its upcoming Model X, with delivery estimates currently pegged for early 2016." is just plain stupid of the "journalist".

Tesla will deliver thousands of Model X this year, starting "this summer".

 

[Aljohn]

the opening sentence of the article says correctly...."if you order a Model X Today, you will not get delivery until 2016". Don't understand the issue. This is already known, and is on the website. Elon made the point on advertising and demand generation stating that all the production for 2015 is sold out, so why would Tesla pay for advertising. The moderator said "then no super-bowl commercial"....

 

[Zaxxon]

Random fact that may interest only me: there are 249 days until the end of summer.

 

[Paul Carter]

Sept 22 here we come!

 

[Svenssons]

the opening sentence of the article says correctly...."if you order a Model X Today, you will not get delivery until 2016". Don't understand the issue. This is already known, and is on the website. Elon made the point on advertising and demand generation stating that all the production for 2015 is sold out, so why would Tesla pay for advertising. The moderator said "then no super-bowl commercial"....

They have changed entire the article now. The opening sentence was this:

"Tesla has once again delayed its upcoming Model X, with delivery estimates currently pegged for early 2016."

 

[Aljohn]

They have changed entire the article now. The opening sentence was this:

"Tesla has once again delayed its upcoming Model X, with delivery estimates currently pegged for early 2016."

Thanks.... now I understand the comments. I only saw the last version of the article

 

[ronmerkord]

Green Car Reports has just released an article on Model X delays, in which they interviewed a lot of vendors off the record. Here is what they came up with.

Why Tesla Model X Electric SUV Is Late: Range, Towing, 'Falcon Doors'

Ron
SigX #1015

 

[Zaxxon]

Random fact that may interest only me: there are 249 days until the end of summer.

T-225 days.

 

[Merrill]

Would anyone like to speculate on how many Model X vehicles will be produced in 2015. Assume that the first deliveries will happen in August and the ramp up by December at 2000 per month as Elon said. Would like to have a number that will be delivered in 2015.

 

[timf]

I'd still put the high-water mark at 8,000. This would be based on Model S production being 12,500 in Q2 and 22,000 for H1. Assuming they maintain at least the Q2 level of production for the remainder of the year, this would be 25,000/33,000 units of Model S leaving 8,000 units of Model X.

This all assumes the production ramp-up goes perfectly. If there are supply issues, this number could easily be cut in half and the Model S could pick up the extra slack. Hence why Elon and the other executives were hesitant to provide any specific guidance on Model X deliveries besides "significant volume" in Q4. I am more intrigued by the 30,000-50,000 production estimate for 2016. I really think the low end would be selling Model X short and the demand will exceed Model S.

 

[mzpolo]

I'd still put the high-water mark at 8,000.

reservation #7004 likes this :smile:

 

[Wolfgang Nomayer]

Tesla will make it happen! I can't wait for the 3!

 

[Paul Carter]

Would anyone like to speculate on how many Model X vehicles will be produced in 2015. Assume that the first deliveries will happen in August and the ramp up by December at 2000 per month as Elon said. Would like to have a number that will be delivered in 2015.

I'd still put the high-water mark at 8,000. This would be based on Model S production being 12,500 in Q2 and 22,000 for H1. Assuming they maintain at least the Q2 level of production for the remainder of the year, this would be 25,000/33,000 units of Model S leaving 8,000 units of Model X.

This all assumes the production ramp-up goes perfectly. If there are supply issues, this number could easily be cut in half and the Model S could pick up the extra slack. Hence why Elon and the other executives were hesitant to provide any specific guidance on Model X deliveries besides "significant volume" in Q4. I am more intrigued by the 30,000-50,000 production estimate for 2016. I really think the low end would be selling Model X short and the demand will exceed Model S.

I think 8,000 still doesn't factor any supply chain, tooling, and QA ramp up issues. Wondering if we can discuss that over on the following thread. I could try and do just 2015 North America and factor cancellations in too.

Model-X-Estimated-Wait-Times-for-North-America

 

[kiefer]

Remember they are preparing a hole new production line just for the Model X including an aluminium stamper to create parts. They still expect this production line to be ready by the end of Q2 and starting Q3 2015.

I would not expect this production line to be able to producere that many Model X in Q3, usually a construction like this would require a lot of testing before the production line is fully operational

If you expect around a 100 Model X to be built each week in Q3 ramping up to 800 per week in Q4, it would make sense to expect around 8 to 10.000 units to be build in 2015.

My guess is that we will see US car build in Q3, since they can easier recall and fix minor problem on US cars compared to EU. Then starting in Q4 to build EU cars, they can probable pretty fast deliver all reserved EU cars in one batch in a month and still make the Q4 delivery.

Due the longer shipment, my guess is that they will start building EU models in October to deliver them be the end of 2015, then they can still count them into the 2015 financial year.

/Martin

 

[Earlian]

Oh, I love your idea, especially the European part.

Never thought, European reservation holders could get their MX's, that fast, but while looking at the actual D-method, it may be a possible way, I never allowed myself to think of. And now, please someone tell me otherwise, so I don't get disappointed if reality hits me again, like in November '14.

Edit: 20 weeks starting from August. With one unexpected doubling at 500. If it goes so smooth, and that is a big if, it could go your way. Man, I don't want to believe it...

Disaimer: These numbers don't have anything to do with knowledge, I just pushed some buttons on a calculator to try, how it could go. Most likely they represent the most improbable outcome!

 

[Merrill]

Ok, let's speculate on vin# vs reservation #. I was at 16,000 +- reservation number on my model s and got vin 9500+- so that is 6500 difference. How does that translate to the Model X, if you have 10000 reservation number and your vin is 6000 does that mean 6000 built from the start.