Depends what you define as production. I believe if the noise really is about Y and they are going to be early, the vast majority of first-day reservation holders will get their cars approximately 3-6 months early, perhaps mid-2020 instead of late 2020. So meaningful production will be on-target or early by a few months. However, that doesn't mean the first thousand won't come off the line significantly earlier. Remember, the earliest Model 3s were manufactured in 2017 - presumably they went to whomever Tesla deemed important enough to be at the top of the queue (guessing employees/family), even though the majority of first day reservation-holders for RWD didn't see their cars until Spring 2018. It would generate enormous, absolutely ENORMOUS headlines and buzz for the company to start putting these on the road [in small numbers] by the end of the year. And kick up more pre-orders, which I can bet are much lower than for 3 (because people sort of learned their lesson). If they're actually re-tooling Fremont lines and space for this purpose (and they may not be), why wouldn't they be able to build some by end of year? The car goes together largely like Model 3. The issue isn't with building the Y or even with most of its parts, it's with having enough battery supply to support a production ramp big enough to meet demand (and not sacrifice Model 3). THAT won't happen until 2020. But no reason why you can't put the shared lines in place right now (like S/X) and crank out a few Ys. Right now it's all about what the most profitable use of each battery pack is. If the answer to that question is actually the variant of Model Y they plan on introducing first, why not?