Model Y will arrive sooner than expected

[woodisgood]

I didn't give you a thumbs down but the Tesla website says "Production is expected to begin late next year"

You think production will begin one full year early?

Depends what you define as production. I believe if the noise really is about Y and they are going to be early, the vast majority of first-day reservation holders will get their cars approximately 3-6 months early, perhaps mid-2020 instead of late 2020. So meaningful production will be on-target or early by a few months.

However, that doesn't mean the first thousand won't come off the line significantly earlier. Remember, the earliest Model 3s were manufactured in 2017 - presumably they went to whomever Tesla deemed important enough to be at the top of the queue (guessing employees/family), even though the majority of first day reservation-holders for RWD didn't see their cars until Spring 2018. It would generate enormous, absolutely ENORMOUS headlines and buzz for the company to start putting these on the road [in small numbers] by the end of the year. And kick up more pre-orders, which I can bet are much lower than for 3 (because people sort of learned their lesson).

If they're actually re-tooling Fremont lines and space for this purpose (and they may not be), why wouldn't they be able to build some by end of year? The car goes together largely like Model 3. The issue isn't with building the Y or even with most of its parts, it's with having enough battery supply to support a production ramp big enough to meet demand (and not sacrifice Model 3). THAT won't happen until 2020. But no reason why you can't put the shared lines in place right now (like S/X) and crank out a few Ys. Right now it's all about what the most profitable use of each battery pack is. If the answer to that question is actually the variant of Model Y they plan on introducing first, why not?

 

[MakeUSGreat]

Is possible, that they will be making some, by the end of year for employees, so they can test them and get the bugs out. Then 6 months later go into production for the rest of us,

 

[KJD]

Tesla supplier hints at massive increase in Model 3 production - Electrek
A Model 3 supplier saying they're doubling parts orders? And Y shares many parts with 3....hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

Based on the track record so far, I have serious doubts about this theory. Tesla has never delivered a new model early. Every new car so far has been late, as in really really late.

If the above article is actually true ( a very big IF by the way ). It could mean that the giga factory in china will be producing model 3's soon. It could also mean that they expect to make a lot of 3 sales in China.

 

[11thIndian]

Based on the track record so far, I have serious doubts about this theory. Tesla has never delivered a new model early. Every new car so far has been late, as in really really late.

Tesla started manufacturing Model 3s in July of 2017 when they said they would at the March 2016 unveiling. It was the scale of the ramp that was way off.

Right now the only two delivery metrics they've used for Model Y are "Fall 2020" for LR deliveries, and "Volume production by the end of 2020"

If Tesla is internally trying to beat those estimates, as Elon said during the Shareholders meeting, then I think a nice, optimistic schedule would be first production in the June/July (no matter how limited in quantity), with the ramp they wanted to have for Model 3, meaning 5K/week by the end of the year.

I think anyone believing they'll start shipping this year are just setting themselves up for disappointment.

 

[MikeDog77]

The biggest thing I think Tesla is keeping an eye on is cannibalization. They want people to keep buying the 3 in record numbers, and when they start making the Y, they will ramp it up very fast because many potential 3 buyers will jump over to the Y. The target of "Fall 2020" allows them to basically start making building the Y line, start making some cars for testing ahead of time and possibly build up an inventory and do a grand delivery event in the 5,000 or possibly 50,000 rather than 50.

 

[CarlK]

The biggest thing I think Tesla is keeping an eye on is cannibalization. They want people to keep buying the 3 in record numbers, and when they start making the Y, they will ramp it up very fast because many potential 3 buyers will jump over to the Y. The target of "Fall 2020" allows them to basically start making building the Y line, start making some cars for testing ahead of time and possibly build up an inventory and do a grand delivery event in the 5,000 or possibly 50,000 rather than 50.

You're probably worrying too much. Model S was not that much affected by the Model X. Even SUV/CUV is hot now Honda, Toyota and BMW are still selling tons of Accorde, Civic, Camry, Corolla and 3 series cars. These are for different markets there are still people who want to buy good sedans.

 

[woodisgood]

Model X is a very different vehicle from S. A lot of people who bought 3 would have bought Y instead.

 

[GenSao]

The biggest thing I think Tesla is keeping an eye on is cannibalization. They want people to keep buying the 3 in record numbers, and when they start making the Y, they will ramp it up very fast because many potential 3 buyers will jump over to the Y. The target of "Fall 2020" allows them to basically start making building the Y line, start making some cars for testing ahead of time and possibly build up an inventory and do a grand delivery event in the 5,000 or possibly 50,000 rather than 50.

Agreed.

Tesla is likely installing a combined 3/Y line with the free space from the combining S & X GA lines and moving of some parts production to Lathrop, CA. The existing Model 3 line(s) will remain in production as they tweak and finalize the new 3/Y combo line this year.

Once all the bugs are worked out, they could convert the existing model 3 line(s) to be a combo 3/Y line in 2020. And/or build a semi, truck, or combo semi/truck line. Build up inventory to not affect sales when they do the switch. This will provide Tesla flexibility and be capital efficient.

 

[mtndrew1]

Do we know what kind of parts this doubled order is for?

If could be turn signal stalks and window switches and they could be making those things uniform between S/X/3.

 

[GenSao]

Do we know what kind of parts this doubled order is for?

If could be turn signal stalks and window switches and they could be making those things uniform between S/X/3.

Electronic relays per the original source.

Optimistically: 2X parts order means increase in production of up to 2X.
Pessimistically: Parts order replaces the loss of parts form another manufacturer or used in other parts of the car. No net increase.

 

[CyberShy]

Maybe it’s service parts. I heard those people are pretty pissed at the wait times.

 

[CyberShy]

The biggest thing I think Tesla is keeping an eye on is cannibalization. They want people to keep buying the 3 in record numbers, and when they start making the Y, they will ramp it up very fast because many potential 3 buyers will jump over to the Y. The target of "Fall 2020" allows them to basically start making building the Y line, start making some cars for testing ahead of time and possibly build up an inventory and do a grand delivery event in the 5,000 or possibly 50,000 rather than 50.

Fears of cannibalization are unfounded and technically it doesn’t happen... ever.

You can’t steal a sale from yourself. You are only going to sell one car to one buyer. You’re just giving the buyer choice. That’s why different body styles and sizes exist in the first place.

And some buyers buy more than one because they can afford it.

Market saturation is what some people call cannibalization. It’s not the same thing.

 

[M3BlueGeorgia]

Electronic relays per the original source.

Optimistically: 2X parts order means increase in production of up to 2X.
Pessimistically: Parts order replaces the loss of parts form another manufacturer or used in other parts of the car. No net increase.

OK, but if the US factory produces 6K a week instead of just under 5K, and the China factory ramps up to 3K, then you've almost doubled production. We know Elon thinks he can get 7K out of the California factory "without major investment", so perhaps they are aiming to ramp up 7K in California?

 

[ZeApelido]

Fears of cannibalization are unfounded and technically it doesn’t happen... ever.

You can’t steal a sale from yourself. You are only going to sell one car to one buyer. You’re just giving the buyer choice. That’s why different body styles and sizes exist in the first place.

And some buyers buy more than one because they can afford it.

Market saturation is what some people call cannibalization. It’s not the same thing.

Osborne effect absolutely does happen.

 

[CyberShy]

The Osborne effect is a different “effect”.

Tesla has more demand than capacity. There is no Osborne Effect.

People waiting for a Y are not going to buy a 3. There’s a reason different body styles exist.

Heck, some will sell their 3 and get a Y. What “effect” is that? I call it upgrade-itis. It’s very costly, though.

 

[vickh]

The Osborne effect is a different “effect”.

Tesla has more demand than capacity. There is no Osborne Effect.

People waiting for a Y are not going to buy a 3. There’s a reason different body styles exist.

Heck, some will sell their 3 and get a Y. What “effect” is that? I call it upgrade-itis. It’s very costly, though.

not if you get a price at trade in... That's my plan or give the 3 to my 16 y.o.

 

[ZeApelido]

The Osborne effect is a different “effect”.

Tesla has more demand than capacity. There is no Osborne Effect.

People waiting for a Y are not going to buy a 3. There’s a reason different body styles exist.

Heck, some will sell their 3 and get a Y. What “effect” is that? I call it upgrade-itis. It’s very costly, though.

There will be partial Osborne effect in the months that the Model Y isn't available but known it will be shortly.

If Tesla announces deliveries of Model Y will start in December, you better believe sales of Model 3 and Model X right now will be affected. Average selling price will drop.

Exactly how large the effect, who knows. But just like Model 3 ate into Model S. And Tesla's actions around Model Y support this.

 

[brucet999]

Thank you. That is further proof.
There is no way there is a doubling of Model 3 production, so the obvious explanation is Model Y, which is being made in China
I just hope Tesla has sufficient longer term lithium supply contracts locked in - it’s the biggest bottleneck, as VAG has discovered
Also being reported by Teslarati:
Tesla Model 3 supplier to double parts shipments in Q3, says sources

Please, that is not proof of anything about Model Y.
That Chinese company provides a relay used in M3 and has orders for double its present monthly volume beginning in October.
M3 production in China is set to begin in October at something like 3,000 units per week.
Fremont M3 production is expected to increase in the coming year to 7,000 per week, which would require some increase in demand.
No one even knows if that supplier is the sole supplier of those relays. Maybe another supplier is being cut back or eliminated.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Tesla Gigafactory 3 employees to start end of July ahead of Model 3 production: report

Chinese publication 21st Century Business Herald has noted that Tesla’s Gigafactory 3 is currently expected to begin trial runs of Model 3 production in September, around the same time as the completion of a substation being built southwest of the expansive general assembly building....According to a Yicai Global report, employees who were able to meet Tesla’s standards have already received oral confirmation notifying them of their employment with the electric car maker. The workers have reportedly been informed to report for duty around the end of July 2019.

 

[mazers]

Report to the dorms and tell their families that they'll see them in a few months.