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Musk: $35,000 Model 3 would cost $38,000 to make right now.
- Thread starter MXWing
- Start date
Having read all of the above comments and opinions .... there is no consensus of opinion. We'll just need to wait and see..
One question that arose ..... is sales compatible with assembly? The November sales data will be interesting. InsideEV shows 17750 M3/s sold in October. That is far short of Octobers assembly numbers.
It would appear (based on multiple comments on various threads on this forum) that Tesla has a growing inventory of rejected M3's.
Are they being re-working? or are they offering them to new buyers for immediate delivery?
Did Tesla "juggle" the VIN's in anticipation of this situation?
There are reports of acquaintances both taking delivery of "new" M3's, but one has a VIN in the 58xxx range and the other in the 124xxx range.
If the report is true (and there is no reason to doubt the poster) it creates suspicion .... and questions.
One question that arose ..... is sales compatible with assembly? The November sales data will be interesting. InsideEV shows 17750 M3/s sold in October. That is far short of Octobers assembly numbers.
It would appear (based on multiple comments on various threads on this forum) that Tesla has a growing inventory of rejected M3's.
Are they being re-working? or are they offering them to new buyers for immediate delivery?
Did Tesla "juggle" the VIN's in anticipation of this situation?
There are reports of acquaintances both taking delivery of "new" M3's, but one has a VIN in the 58xxx range and the other in the 124xxx range.
If the report is true (and there is no reason to doubt the poster) it creates suspicion .... and questions.
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My guess is that Tesla's next effort to make the Model 3 affordable for the "masses" is to offer the SR battery pack but still require PUP.
That continues to drive the price lower and helps with Tesla's margins. Yes some will scream and asked what happened to the $35k car but it would be a step in the right direction.
I think ultimately if Tesla can offer the base model at $37k-$38K citing inflation they will be able to weather the criticism.
Certainly cannot be any worse then Elon's effort to promote the Model S pricing at $49,999 after tax credit.
Tesla Coughs Up Sedan Price, Details on Economy Car
"Speaking at the Tesla dealership in Menlo Park, Calif., company CEO Elon Musk revealed that its all-electric passenger sedan, the Model S, will be priced at $57,499. The government will offer a $7,500 tax credit to bring the price to $49,999.
That continues to drive the price lower and helps with Tesla's margins. Yes some will scream and asked what happened to the $35k car but it would be a step in the right direction.
I think ultimately if Tesla can offer the base model at $37k-$38K citing inflation they will be able to weather the criticism.
Certainly cannot be any worse then Elon's effort to promote the Model S pricing at $49,999 after tax credit.
Tesla Coughs Up Sedan Price, Details on Economy Car
"Speaking at the Tesla dealership in Menlo Park, Calif., company CEO Elon Musk revealed that its all-electric passenger sedan, the Model S, will be priced at $57,499. The government will offer a $7,500 tax credit to bring the price to $49,999.
vjason
Member
FWIW I ordered on Black Friday (Deep Blue AWD LR) and the car arrived at the Raleigh SC early last week (was obviously shipped East without a buyer). Pickup on Tuesday.
My VIN is in the 130xxx range.
I was going to wait for the base model too (was ~#13 in line on I order launch day) but changed my mind given the tax credit is about to drop. I'm spending more than would have, but not as much as I might have given my trade is still worth a bit, and I'm going to go ahead and sell off my NC "winter" Prius.
My VIN is in the 130xxx range.
I was going to wait for the base model too (was ~#13 in line on I order launch day) but changed my mind given the tax credit is about to drop. I'm spending more than would have, but not as much as I might have given my trade is still worth a bit, and I'm going to go ahead and sell off my NC "winter" Prius.
I'm going to throw this out there (as a very impatient Right Hand drive reservation holder), feel free to come back in 3 years and tell me how wrong I was!
- There will not be a $35k Model 3 SR for a long time (2020) - PUP will be required for all SR orders for all of 2019.
- There will NEVER be a RHD SR Model 3, they just wont bother. RHD SR reservation holders (ie. Me) will be offered a Model Y place in line or a MR/LR instead. Yes I know this means pissing off 100's of potential UK, Japanese, Aus and NZ customers. But it just doesnt make enough sense for them to make the effort. Why? See my next point.
- They may even fulfill all the SR Reservations and then discontinue the SR permanently. With the Semi, Model Y, Roadster 2020, Model S and X refresh and Pickup coming, all of these higher profit margin than the SR M3, they will be battery constrained worldwide for the foreseeable future (2022 is my guess). So why bother putting those cells in a very low margin car when they could power a much higher margin product? Short answer, they wont. The Model 3 SR will exist only until Tesla can claim they delivered one to all the original reservation holders. It will then be gone, never to return. The only exception to this is they may choose to make ONLY SR battery packs in the China GF.
They will be able to use the experience they gained in making smaller, cheaper packs to then produce the $25k US small car that Elon has mentioned, but that will be 2022 or later.
TL,DR - There will be no Tesla car available for less than $39k US for many years yet.
- There will not be a $35k Model 3 SR for a long time (2020) - PUP will be required for all SR orders for all of 2019.
- There will NEVER be a RHD SR Model 3, they just wont bother. RHD SR reservation holders (ie. Me) will be offered a Model Y place in line or a MR/LR instead. Yes I know this means pissing off 100's of potential UK, Japanese, Aus and NZ customers. But it just doesnt make enough sense for them to make the effort. Why? See my next point.
- They may even fulfill all the SR Reservations and then discontinue the SR permanently. With the Semi, Model Y, Roadster 2020, Model S and X refresh and Pickup coming, all of these higher profit margin than the SR M3, they will be battery constrained worldwide for the foreseeable future (2022 is my guess). So why bother putting those cells in a very low margin car when they could power a much higher margin product? Short answer, they wont. The Model 3 SR will exist only until Tesla can claim they delivered one to all the original reservation holders. It will then be gone, never to return. The only exception to this is they may choose to make ONLY SR battery packs in the China GF.
They will be able to use the experience they gained in making smaller, cheaper packs to then produce the $25k US small car that Elon has mentioned, but that will be 2022 or later.
TL,DR - There will be no Tesla car available for less than $39k US for many years yet.
BluestarE3
Active Member
Since you're asking for personal opinions, I'd say the latter.
It's impossible to guess what direction future sales will go. Personally, I am suspicious the loss of the Fed rebate is going to really hurt Tesla's sales. I hope not, but that is my suspicion.
You can't deny the loss is January 2019 has bolstered sales the latter part of 2018.
GM stopping production of the Volt is going to stir the mix. Will those Volt buyers turn to Tesla? or to the Bolt.
There is an interesting piece on YouTube comparing the Bolt and the new Kona. The Kona just might well become a "spoiler."
The reviews are good; the EPA has given it an outstanding range value; No report on the price .... but it will come with a $7500 Fed rebate.
No the Kona is not in the Tesla class for sure, but with the Volt vacating the slot .... who knows. Many buyers may drop down to the lower class, ..... it is still an EV. In October, the Bolt was second to the M3 in sales (although significantly lower),
Just some extraneous thoughts.
You can't deny the loss is January 2019 has bolstered sales the latter part of 2018.
GM stopping production of the Volt is going to stir the mix. Will those Volt buyers turn to Tesla? or to the Bolt.
There is an interesting piece on YouTube comparing the Bolt and the new Kona. The Kona just might well become a "spoiler."
The reviews are good; the EPA has given it an outstanding range value; No report on the price .... but it will come with a $7500 Fed rebate.
No the Kona is not in the Tesla class for sure, but with the Volt vacating the slot .... who knows. Many buyers may drop down to the lower class, ..... it is still an EV. In October, the Bolt was second to the M3 in sales (although significantly lower),
Just some extraneous thoughts.
Pragmatically, the Volt remains one-of-a-kind. Honda has released a very close competitor, but it's still not up to 2016 Volt spec. The Volt is the Monday-Friday BEV that changes into a hybrid for the weekends. It always has 100% rated power (120kW) of electromotive drive with or without the gas engine running. All other plug-ins still require the gas engine to be running to get full rated power. It retired as the Champ of the EREVs.
It's going out with a bang, not a whimper though. Now it charges in <2.5h, and has finally has power seats. Neither of which I thought were critical. Fun fact: The Volt's 18.4kWh battery charging at 7.2kw is >2.5C. To put that in perspective, that's a 75kWh battery charging at ~200kW and guaranteed to do for 8 years. At home.
I'm of this opinion this is correct.
He mentions needing to shave pennies of the average $3.80 avg part cost... which makes sense if they are targeting $35K sales prices... but would make no sense if production costs were in that realm for a car they plan on selling at $35K...
I think 100% is pretty confident...
Despite the wording, I don't think it's currently costing $38K just to build an SR.... not when a LR teardown quote some time ago that estimated $28K got Elon's implied confirmation.
They plan to accomplish this as stated here;
Behind the Scenes at Tesla’s Gigafactory: Field Notes From Our Recent Visit
Grohmann Engineering will help module production become three times faster, and three times cheaper, according to Viecha. Their new system will be sent to the Gigafactory by the end of Q3 or beginning of Q4. The Grohmann machine will be in Zones 1, 2, 3, and Tesla will be receiving three machines. The process was designed to alleviate the previous bottleneck in module production which delayed Model 3 production significantly. The machine is already built, and points to the advantage Tesla will have in building future Gigafactories. They have learned many painful lessons, but have a solid blueprint for porting the factory across the world.
Behind the Scenes at Tesla’s Gigafactory: Field Notes From Our Recent Visit
Grohmann Engineering will help module production become three times faster, and three times cheaper, according to Viecha. Their new system will be sent to the Gigafactory by the end of Q3 or beginning of Q4. The Grohmann machine will be in Zones 1, 2, 3, and Tesla will be receiving three machines. The process was designed to alleviate the previous bottleneck in module production which delayed Model 3 production significantly. The machine is already built, and points to the advantage Tesla will have in building future Gigafactories. They have learned many painful lessons, but have a solid blueprint for porting the factory across the world.
Does that assume the same quality of materials as the LR/MR options? Strip it down to cloth seats etc. and make it happen.
So maybe we're better off waiting for the SR. We may lose a portion of the tax credit but we can get PUP and EAP for $10K vs. $15K with the MR. And perhaps they'll have the electronics piece sorted out.
voip-ninja
Give me some sugar baby
Wait and see means you give up $3750 in tax incentives, assuming you qualify for the full $7500 deduction. There's also the possibility that the tax deduction is completely eliminated in the next budget, so I guess it comes down to how long you want to wait, vs. how likely you think it is you'll get a partial tax credit in 6-9 months time, vs getting $7500 in tax credit today with an MR battery vs "saving" $5,000 on an SR battery but losing $3750 of tax incentives.
In short, MR today is a $1250 premium over hypothetical SR of next year. If the SR is delivered in Q3/Q4 the difference is pretty much wiped out and today's MR is actually LESS EXPENSIVE than Q3/4 2019 SR (tax credit down to $1875 2nd half 2019).
It's amazing to me people don't see this. Anyone waiting on an SR who knows they want PUP and qualifies for the tax credit is a dumbass if they are not buying an MR car today. About the only reason I can see waiting is you want APV3 hardware, Tesla continues improving quality, etc.
As far as what Tesla will cut for non PUP models we already know some of it;
1. No power folding mirrors
2. Metal roof
3. "non premium" materials interior, probably meaning cloth seats.
4. Manual seats vs power seats
5. no center console organization... possibly no armrest.
6. Lower end stereo.
7. Various other amenities such as USB ports for charging phones, etc.
One can hypothesize about lots of other things Tesla will do to deliver $35K car. I think if they want to continue to be regarded as luxury brand they will be hobbled in how much further they can go. Base Audi A4 or BMW 3 series are still decent cars even if they have cheapo leatherette interiors.
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