Musk: $35,000 Model 3 would cost $38,000 to make right now.

[BluestarE3]

So maybe we're better off waiting for the SR. We may lose a portion of the tax credit but we can get PUP and EAP for $10K vs. $15K with the MR. And perhaps they'll have the electronics piece sorted out.

The MR is a quick-fix solution to allow many people holding out for the SR battery pack to get their cars sooner and take advantage of the full tax credit for only $1,250 (and later, $2,250) more than the SR. Since we are now past the 11/30 drop-dead date to be guaranteed a 2018 delivery, one of the appeals of the MR no longer applies.

It'll be interesting to see what Tesla does with the MR in the new year. Will it be discontinued soon or will they keep it around until the SR with PUP is available? If they keep it around, will there be any price adjustments?

 

[BluestarE3]

It's amazing to me people don't see this. Anyone waiting on an SR who knows they want PUP and qualifies for the tax credit is a dumbass if they are not buying an MR car today.

Well, it's already too late. People would have had to jump on the MR by 11/30 to be assured of getting their cars by 12/31 for the full tax credit.

 

[Stirfelt]

Just a quick comment ....
there are legitimate reasons why some of us "dumbass" wannabes could not buy in 2018 ..... and get "high" on rebate "cool-aide."

One last thought:
IF .... this is true......
"As far as what Tesla will cut for non PUP models we already know some of it;

1. No power folding mirrors
2. Metal roof
3. "non premium" materials interior, probably meaning cloth seats.
4. Manual seats vs power seats
5. no center console organization... possibly no armrest.
6. Lower end stereo.
7. Various other amenities such as USB ports for charging phones, etc."

Then owning a Tesla is not worth #35k or 38 whatever the cost is, especially when there are other cars coming on the market with excellent QC, range and value ..... and a $7500 fed rebate.

 

[voip-ninja]

The MR is a quick-fix solution to allow many people holding out for the SR battery pack to get their cars sooner and take advantage of the full tax credit for only $1,250 (and later, $2,250) more than the SR. Since we are now past the 11/30 drop-dead date to be guaranteed a 2018 delivery, one of the appeals of the MR no longer applies.

It'll be interesting to see what Tesla does with the MR in the new year. Will it be discontinued soon or will they keep it around until the SR with PUP is available? If they keep it around, will there be any price adjustments?

I predict that MR won't be discontinued... in fact I predict they add dual motor to it very early in Q1 2019 so that those who want the highly profitable option can do so and still get $3750 in tax credits from the feds.

 

[Stirfelt]

Agreed.
Tesla is showing no inclination or interest in selling a stripped, lower value EV sedan at $35k (a myth in of itself).
The MR will be the lower cost variant, and most buyers will opt for the PUP.
Just because a buyers has no NEED for extended range, it does not mean they are also not interested in luxury, comfort, performance and appeal.

I'd imagine there are many like myself that are retired (no commute); that live with 100 miles of the grandchildren; that will not take long road trips; that will plug-in nightly ........... but still want all the features offered by Tesla.

 

[voip-ninja]

Agreed.
Tesla is showing no inclination or interest in selling a stripped, lower value EV sedan at $35k (a myth in of itself).
The MR will be the lower cost variant, and most buyers will opt for the PUP.
Just because a buyers has no NEED for extended range, it does not mean they are also not interested in luxury, comfort, performance and appeal.

I'd imagine there are many like myself that are retired (no commute); that live with 100 miles of the grandchildren; that will not take long road trips; that will plug-in nightly ........... but still want all the features offered by Tesla.

Tesla will eventually sell a $35,000 Model 3 to at least the reservation holders who reserved early and have held out for it. They might even have to sell it at a slight loss to avoid making it so cheap that it reflects unfavorably on the brand.

 

[kiwiana]

I want an Electric car because I want to stop burning fossil fuels and do my part to reduce Carbon dioxide emissions. I want a Tesla because I think they make better electric cars than any others available to me right now. I want a Model 3 because its the only Tesla I can afford! So I wait....

 

[kiwiana]

Sorry that should say Standard Range Model 3

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

It's amazing to me people don't see this. Anyone waiting on an SR who knows they want PUP and qualifies for the tax credit is a dumbass if they are not buying an MR car today. About the only reason I can see waiting is you want APV3 hardware, Tesla continues improving quality, etc.

Oh, the math is obvious. At least it was with the initial +$5k. At +$6k, a bit closer.

It's those "Tesla continues improving quality, etc" that's a rather important problem, especially to those of us who live 200 miles and the wrong side of Boston from a service center.
Winter-intolerant seals and door handles, dumb software that disables the rear windshield heater, and I know there's some other facepalm out there.

There's also the fact that the very ability to make and sell the base SR for $35k is important for company survival.

 

[voip-ninja]

Oh, the math is obvious. At least it was with the initial +$5k. At +$6k, a bit closer.

It's those "Tesla continues improving quality, etc" that's a rather important problem, especially to those of us who live 200 miles and the wrong side of Boston from a service center.

There's also the fact that the very ability to make and sell the base SR for $35k is important for company survival.

$35,000 Model-3 being profitable may or may not be critical for company survival it probably depends on how much demand there is for higher spec versions.

It would be interesting to know what the breakdown is from other luxury automakers on their bare bones stripped models vs the higher trim options.

Musk himself had predicted that the "average" selling price of a Model 3 would end up being around $44,000 if I remember correctly. That is about the price of a RWD MR that is available today.

 

[Nocturnal]

$35,000 Model-3 being profitable may or may not be critical for company survival it probably depends on how much demand there is for higher spec versions.

It would be interesting to know what the breakdown is from other luxury automakers on their bare bones stripped models vs the higher trim options.

Musk himself had predicted that the "average" selling price of a Model 3 would end up being around $44,000 if I remember correctly. That is about the price of a RWD MR that is available today.

Given the savings on maintenance and fuel, I don't think EVs have to be at the same price mix as ICE cars. The cheapest BMW you can buy is 35k, but factor in those savings and you aren't that far off from the price of the MR. Plus there will still be an EV credit of some sort for another year and many states offer some savings.

 

[voip-ninja]

Given the savings on maintenance and fuel, I don't think EVs have to be at the same price mix as ICE cars. The cheapest BMW you can buy is 35k, but factor in those savings and you aren't that far off from the price of the MR. Plus there will still be an EV credit of some sort for another year and many states offer some savings.

Tesla, like BMW, have a well earned reputation for being extremely cost prohibitive to repair outside of warranty. What's more, the BMW, for the length of the typical lease includes all scheduled maintenance, where-as the Tesla will need brake fluid and battery coolant services in the first four years of ownership that will probably total over $800.

Additionally Tesla cars go through tires more quickly.

Teslas, in most cases, seem to cost more to insure.

Final point. Tesla hostility towards those who want to repair their own vehicles is evident.... they make it very difficult to get access to technical information and don't sell parts to customers. BMW might be expensive to fix but you CAN fix your own car and get parts anywhere, globally, with ease.

 

[BluestarE3]

Agreed.
Tesla is showing no inclination or interest in selling a stripped, lower value EV sedan at $35k (a myth in of itself).
The MR will be the lower cost variant, and most buyers will opt for the PUP.
Just because a buyers has no NEED for extended range, it does not mean they are also not interested in luxury, comfort, performance and appeal.

I'd imagine there are many like myself that are retired (no commute); that live with 100 miles of the grandchildren; that will not take long road trips; that will plug-in nightly ........... but still want all the features offered by Tesla.

Same here. Retired. Local grandchild (soon to be grandchildren). However, I don't think the MR will end up being the low cost variant in lieu of the SR. They will follow through on the SR because they are developing a more efficient, lower-cost battery pack for it, and that improved battery pack design will have implications for future vehicles beyond just the SR Model 3. The non-PUP Model 3 (in any battery configuration), on the other hand, will not likely emerge for some time nor will it likely remain available for long.

 

[Nocturnal]

There should be a sizable inventory of used model 3s by the time the SRs come out as well. Especially if the Ys are also in play. We all like new cars, but if you are choosing the SR for cost savings, a used MR/LR might be a better financial play.

Tesla, like BMW, have a well earned reputation for being extremely cost prohibitive to repair outside of warranty. What's more, the BMW, for the length of the typical lease includes all scheduled maintenance, where-as the Tesla will need brake fluid and battery coolant services in the first four years of ownership that will probably total over $800.

Additionally Tesla cars go through tires more quickly.

Teslas, in most cases, seem to cost more to insure.

Final point. Tesla hostility towards those who want to repair their own vehicles is evident.... they make it very difficult to get access to technical information and don't sell parts to customers. BMW might be expensive to fix but you CAN fix your own car and get parts anywhere, globally, with ease.

That's due to choice of tires to assist range though right?

Sure you can fix your own BMW, but how many do? 5%? Agreed that Tesla will need to open things up sooner or later. I'm a big Tesla fan, but I don't like when I own a product but the manufacturer tells me how I can use it. (i.e. phones etc.)

 

[Badshirt]

Same here. Retired. Local grandchild (soon to be grandchildren). However, I don't think the MR will end up being the low cost variant in lieu of the SR. They will follow through on the SR because they are developing a more efficient, lower-cost battery pack for it, and that improved battery pack design will have implications for future vehicles beyond just the SR Model 3. The non-PUP Model 3 (in any battery configuration), on the other hand, will not likely emerge for some time nor will it likely remain available for long.

Do you think I’ll be able to get a “SR” with PUP in the first quarter next year? I want PUP and EAP for $45k.

 

[suwaneedad]

Do you think I’ll be able to get a “SR” with PUP in the first quarter next year? I want PUP and EAP for $45k.

1Q19 is a stretch given that'd be quicker than Elon Time and rarely (never?) do things occur faster than Elon Time.
That said, I do believe you'll enjoy one of the first builds of the SR since you're planning to get a ~loaded one.

 

[suwaneedad]

Wait and see means you give up $3750 in tax incentives, assuming you qualify for the full $7500 deduction. There's also the possibility that the tax deduction is completely eliminated in the next budget, so I guess it comes down to how long you want to wait, vs. how likely you think it is you'll get a partial tax credit in 6-9 months time, vs getting $7500 in tax credit today with an MR battery vs "saving" $5,000 on an SR battery but losing $3750 of tax incentives.

In short, MR today is a $1250 premium over hypothetical SR of next year. If the SR is delivered in Q3/Q4 the difference is pretty much wiped out and today's MR is actually LESS EXPENSIVE than Q3/4 2019 SR (tax credit down to $1875 2nd half 2019).

It's amazing to me people don't see this. Anyone waiting on an SR who knows they want PUP and qualifies for the tax credit is a dumbass if they are not buying an MR car today. About the only reason I can see waiting is you want APV3 hardware, Tesla continues improving quality, etc.

As far as what Tesla will cut for non PUP models we already know some of it;

1. No power folding mirrors
2. Metal roof
3. "non premium" materials interior, probably meaning cloth seats.
4. Manual seats vs power seats
5. no center console organization... possibly no armrest.
6. Lower end stereo.
7. Various other amenities such as USB ports for charging phones, etc.

One can hypothesize about lots of other things Tesla will do to deliver $35K car. I think if they want to continue to be regarded as luxury brand they will be hobbled in how much further they can go. Base Audi A4 or BMW 3 series are still decent cars even if they have cheapo leatherette interiors.

One thing not reflected in your analysis is that some people waiting for SR rather than jumping on MR/LR may be driving ~fully depreciated cars right now. Those people are better off financially foregoing $3750 in federal tax credits than they are achieving the $3750 and simultaneously swapping into a vehicle that is suddenly depreciating materially each month (vs ~$0 depreciation on the status quo vehicle).

 

[MXWing]

I've not heard of this. Do you have a source?

See below, Model 3 parts catalog. IGBT only exists on the MR at the moment.

 

[BluestarE3]

Do you think I’ll be able to get a “SR” with PUP in the first quarter next year? I want PUP and EAP for $45k.

Don't know if it'll be 1Q19 or not, but when SR makes its debut, your configuration likely will be among the first to be produced.

I was like you, holding out for the SR with PUP, but after waiting 2.75 years and fielding countless inquiries from friends and family about when I will finally get my Tesla, I jumped at the MR as soon as it was announced. I'm usually a patient man, but patience has its limits at my age.

 

[scaesare]

See below, Model 3 parts catalog. IGBT only exists on the MR at the moment.

View attachment 357670

Interesting... thanks @MXWing