Blog Musk Responds to Requests for Rain-Sensing Wipers, Disco Mode

On Tuesday, Tesla CEO Elon Musk asked followers for suggestions to improve Tesla’s product offerings. And, he quickly agreed to implement a few of the suggestions.

For instance, he replied to a request for remote operated heated windows, seats and steering wheel by saying to expect the feature in the company’s next software update.

https://twitter.com/x/status/945727563187421185

Rain-sensing windshield wipers seem to be on the way too.

https://twitter.com/x/status/945814723521417217

Better maps and navigation are coming, as Musk mentioned last week.

https://twitter.com/x/status/945749747129659392

He said major browser upgrades are coming to all cars in a few months.

https://twitter.com/x/status/945729852874694656

Musk also mentioned that the company may give more attention to Tesla Energy products in 2018.

https://twitter.com/x/status/945728690507231232

Musk even seemed receptive to a request for a “Disco Mode” that syncs that car’s music to lights, saying the idea “sounds like good, cheesy fun .”

 

[AnxietyRanger]

@lunitiks The beer cases aren't finished yet, are they?

 

[lunitiks]

Allright enough of this. Where’s disco mode, I’m ready to drive

 

[whitex]

True. But together with many other data points they can still be useful.

Can you enlighten me as to what are those are other data points? I mean besides "I have a strong feeling" comments from TMC members crossing their fingers, or other completely unsubstantiated speculations. So far the only hard data I got is:

1. Tesla promised automatic wipers for 12/2016.
2. Tesla did not deliver.
3. Elon tweets it's "coming soon" multiple times through the year, along with "silky smooth" and other AP2 features
4. Auto-wipers still not there months later
5. Tesla removed automatic wipers as a feature from their website and Model S/X/3 (3 never had it to start)
6. Elon tweets "it's coming very soon"
7. Plenty of examples out there of Elon tweeting soon and not delivering years later (using this simply as a data point indicating pattern, not a gripe)

What factual data am I missing?

 

[AnxietyRanger]

@whitex

8. The resident hacker finding, following and reporting on several iterations of rain-sensing neural networks on AP2 cars, which suggest maturing. We have plenty of details, down to how the car reports existence of rain and how that has changed over the year.

9. The Karpathy factor: Tesla admitted to issues in their NN design and finally started using the re-design in .40, suggesting the floodgates for other features might open soon, now that they seem to have gotten the NN design working better. The camera-based blind-spot detection is another one where the resident hacker has provided compelling data points about an impending release.

10. A Tesla exec in (was it?) Netherlands discussing a big update to AP around the end of year.

11. Elon had been quiet for a long time, suggesting he realized the need to shut up. What changed? One thing that could have changed is he knows a major update is coming soon, that would make his word look a bit better.

Look, as said, this is an inexact business. None for the above is a guarantee of anything. It is a constant re-weighing of our own neural networks and judging probabilities.

I'm not even sure why I'm explaining this, because I am not really trying to convince you of this. If you find it unrealistic, that is certainly a very valid opinion. There are no exact answers to future or rumor analysis.

Perhaps what I'm trying to convince you of is that there is method to my madness at least. IMO it provides useful views on product changes, and has hit the mark on several big occasions, but that does not guarantee anything in this particular case.

I fully agree Tesla and Elon have been announcing things that didn't happen for the past year(s). That is taken into consideration in my thinking too.

@verygreen add to the details if you wish.

 

[whitex]

@whitex

8. The resident hacker finding, following and reporting on several iterations of rain-sensing neural networks on AP2 cars, which suggest maturing. We have plenty of details, down to how the car reports existence of rain and how that has changed over the year.

9. The Karpathy factor: Tesla admitted to issues in their NN design and finally started using the re-design in .40, suggesting the floodgates for other features might open soon, now that they seem to have gotten the NN design working better. The camera-based blind-spot detection is another one where the resident hacker has provided compelling data points about an impending release.

10. A Tesla exec in (was it?) Netherlands discussing a big update to AP around the end of year.

11. Elon had been quiet for a long time, suggesting he realized the need to shut up. What changed? One thing that could have changed is he knows a major update is coming soon, that would make his word look a bit better.

Look, as said, this is an inexact business. None for the above is a guarantee of anything. It is a constant re-weighing of our own neural networks and judging probabilities.

I'm not even sure why I'm explaining this, because I am not really trying to convince you of this. If you find it unrealistic, that is certainly a very valid opinion. There are no exact answers to future or rumor analysis.

Perhaps what I'm trying to convince you of is that there is method to my madness at least. IMO it provides useful views on product changes, and has hit the mark on several big occasions, but that does not guarantee anything in this particular case.

I fully agree Tesla and Elon have been announcing things that didn't happen for the past year(s). That is taken into consideration in my thinking too.

@verygreen add to the details if you wish.

1. Care to provide a link to this compelling evidence that resident hackers found for #8 and #9?
2. If true, that #8 and #9 implies is that Tesla realized their old approach was a failure and they are trying a new approach. Is says nothing whether the new approach will be successful or how close they are.
3. re:#10 - What Elon says or Tesla executives say is immaterial as it has no bases in reality whatsoever. I've come to realize it's all simply to create hype aimed mostly at non-Tesla owners (to entice them to desire the car) and partially at the Tesla fanboys. I still meet a lot of people, non-owners, who think P85D produces 700hp, that FSD drives me to work while I sleep on the back seat, or that everyone gets a P100D as a loaner when servicing their cars, etc, etc. Where does the perception comes from? Elon and other Tesla communications which only people who actually buy the product come to find out are not true at this time, but of course with carefully crafted hype they make sure they leave just enough door open to say "we never said when it will happen, soon a relative term, on a cosmic scale for example one million years is soon".
4. re:#11 - Elon being quiet doesn't prove anything is coming - it's not a data point supporting anything new is coming - the opposite, the guy's track history is overpromise and under-deliver, so if he says nothing, you draw your own conclusions

I hope I'm wrong, it annoys me every time I drive out AP2 car that the wipers are not automatic.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

@whitex

I looked up the links and posted there amongst others here: Rumor summary: Blind-spot cameras, Rain sensing, Level 3, Big battery, Interior/HUD

A bit difficult to keep track of it all without making summaries at times...

• re:#10 - What Elon says or Tesla executives say is immaterial as it has no bases in reality whatsoever. I've come to realize it's all simply to create hype aimed mostly at non-Tesla owners (to entice them to desire the car) and partially at the Tesla fanboys. I still meet a lot of people, non-owners, who think P85D produces 700hp, that FSD drives me to work while I sleep on the back seat, or that everyone gets a P100D as a loaner when servicing their cars, etc, etc. Where does the perception comes from? Elon and other Tesla communications which only people who actually buy the product come to find out are not true at this time, but of course with carefully crafted hype they make sure they leave just enough door open to say "we never said when it will happen, soon a relative term, on a cosmic scale for example one million years is soon".

• re:#11 - Elon being quiet doesn't prove anything is coming - it's not a data point supporting anything new is coming - the opposite, the guy's track history is overpromise and under-deliver, so if he says nothing, you draw your own conclusions

We can agree to disagree on this, I'm sure. My point is: I don't place too much value on them, but taken together with other tidbits, they can still help "reading between the lines". Psychology, if you will. A person in the know can send unintended signals and they can be picked up by someone paying attention.

Trust me, I've learned from the AP2 announcement. I am skeptical as heck.

 

[whitex]

@whitex
My point is: I don't place too much value on them, but taken together with other tidbits, they can still help "reading between the lines". Psychology, if you will. A person in the know can send unintended signals and they can be picked up by someone paying attention.

Trust me, I've learned from the AP2 announcement. I am skeptical as heck.

Maybe it's the difference in our backgrounds. I grew up in Eastern Europe where I learned how carefully propaganda can be orchestrated. I've seen "people in the know" dropping hints seeming coincidental but actually being 100% planned and crafted on purpose to mislead people. Elon has been very carefully curating his relationship with the public from the get-go, and he is for all practical purposes the face of Tesla since they don't do any official advertising. As long as his successes kept on coming, he, and therefore Tesla, was in good shape as people don't question crazy promises if most of them are delivered. The problem he is facing now is that he continues to make crazy promises with total certainty, but he's no longer delivering. Crazy leaders who reject reality and substitute their own are considered charismatic and have a lot of followers, but only as long as they deliver successes.

PS> All good discussion points by the way, I enjoy our conversations

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Maybe it's the difference in our backgrounds. I grew up in Eastern Europe where I learned how carefully propaganda can be orchestrated. I've seen "people in the know" dropping hints seeming coincidental but actually being 100% planned and crafted on purpose to mislead people. Elon has been very carefully curating his relationship with the public from the get-go, and he is for all practical purposes the face of Tesla since they don't do any official advertising. As long as his successes kept on coming, he, and therefore Tesla, was in good shape as people don't question crazy promises if most of them are delivered. The problem he is facing now is that he continues to make crazy promises with total certainty, but he's no longer delivering. Crazy leaders who reject reality and substitute their own are considered charismatic and have a lot of followers, but only as long as they deliver successes.

You are correct overall, of course. For example, last summer when Elon replied someone requesting the easy entry feature on Twitter, I considered that a carefully orchestrated event. Not untrue, but not spontaneous request-taking from the audience either - the feature had probably been implemented already by then and Elon took the PR points and publicity value for it on Twitter...

I think an important distinction here is planned propaganda vs. freewheeling commentary. The AP2 announcement in October 2016 clearly was planned propaganda - and it seems to have been so blatant that a lot of us really fell for it. The extent of how misleading (or not) it was compared to Tesla's internal info at the time will probably be figured out in future lawsuits, but in any case it was carefully orchestrated IMO and managed to mislead us badly.

But comments from a Tesla higher-up in an informal setting... they IMO can still be telling. For example the Netherlands case, I think it was an answer to a question that got the higher-up to discuss their current AP plans. When people go off the script a bit, it can be telling. Even Elon goes off the script at interviews at times... It seemed genuine enough to be somewhat telling. Elon's latest tweet-storm too, not really feeling that orchestrated on the response level (the first message would have been orchestrated of course)... So they can be informative on some level, especially if other tidbits support them.

In summary, I'm raising the likelihood of rain-sensing appearing by the end of Q1/2018 from unknown to likely. This is not an exact science. I base it on the technical progress found out by an impartial third-party as well as my personal assessment that the Tesla higher-ups in question probably were fairly genuine this time, call it a hunch... plus the fact that something being so long in the works, at some point the likelihood of it coming out simply because of the time that has passed, becomes higher.

We shall see...

PS> All good discussion points by the way, I enjoy our conversations

Thank you. I have appreciated the exchange as well.

 

[LMichel]

@whitex,
Just curious; with all those Teslas mentioned in your signature, I'm confused about your negativity.
You are a harsh critic of Tesla's sw/fw development process and setbacks, yet you keep purchasing Tesla cars??
Not saying you should stop complaining. But perhaps you should junk your Teslas or get the most $$$ you can from them and move on?
If I were such a detractor as @whitex, at least I'd stop repeating the purchase process. Perhaps I'm missing something..

 

[AnxietyRanger]

@whitex,
Just curious; with all those Teslas mentioned in your signature, I'm confused about your negativity.
You are a harsh critic of Tesla's sw/fw development process and setbacks, yet you keep purchasing Tesla cars??
Not saying you should stop complaining. But perhaps you should junk your Teslas or get the most $$$ you can from them and move on?
If I were such a detractor as @whitex, at least I'd stop repeating the purchase process. Perhaps I'm missing something..

Well, I don't know about @whitex in particular, but some observations in general:

I do think some of us like our cars (i.e. the product) more than the company or some of its policies (which are a separate thing). It is certainly possible to separate the two things and not consider them so related in purchase decisions.

How Happy Are You With Your Tesla?

Some have also simply grown disillusioned after the purchases. Arguably Tesla on 2014, for example, was a very different company than Tesla on 2017 in some of these ways.

 

[Swift]

@whitex,
Just curious; with all those Teslas mentioned in your signature, I'm confused about your negativity.
You are a harsh critic of Tesla's sw/fw development process and setbacks, yet you keep purchasing Tesla cars??
Not saying you should stop complaining. But perhaps you should junk your Teslas or get the most $$$ you can from them and move on?
If I were such a detractor as @whitex, at least I'd stop repeating the purchase process. Perhaps I'm missing something..

I think he pointed out the in his post above that things have gotten worse at Tesla over the time he purchased his vehicles.

Elon has been very carefully curating his relationship with the public from the get-go, and he is for all practical purposes the face of Tesla since they don't do any official advertising. As long as his successes kept on coming, he, and therefore Tesla, was in good shape as people don't question crazy promises if most of them are delivered. The problem he is facing now is that he continues to make crazy promises with total certainty, but he's no longer delivering.

I completely agree with this btw.

That said, if I was purchasing now instead of q4 last year, and I saw the reality of Tesla/Elon’s statements on EAP and FSD, I wouldn’t buy the car (at least not until all this was sorted.) I think I would have been fine if I had purchased earlier models back when whitex did. They lived up to expectations and commitments for the most part.

 

[MYB_S90D]

My suggestion is to help us Tesla owners who live in states that Tesla is not allowed to operate in. Here in NM, auto manufacturers like Tesla are prohibited from selling or servicing vehicles. The nearest service center for me is 420 miles away in Denver. If Tesla can't help us get our backwards state legislators to change the laws, they could establish certified, independent service providers to fill in. Just a thought.

 

[Barklikeadog]

I'm sure the internet is about to be flooded with stories of musk responding with a promise to take care of a request... which won't acknowledge the other 50 times this happened and went unfilled.

 

[whitex]

@whitex,
Just curious; with all those Teslas mentioned in your signature, I'm confused about your negativity.
You are a harsh critic of Tesla's sw/fw development process and setbacks, yet you keep purchasing Tesla cars??
Not saying you should stop complaining. But perhaps you should junk your Teslas or get the most $$$ you can from them and move on?
If I were such a detractor as @whitex, at least I'd stop repeating the purchase process. Perhaps I'm missing something..

It's really not that complicated or confusing. @AnxietyRanger pointed up above, it is possible to like a product and not like the decisions company is making. In my case, I like the product, I like the service, but I no longer trust Elon and anything he promises. It kind of happened over time as @Swift suggested. The timeline went like this:

1. 2013 - bought an S60 as my fist foray into EV's. I was waiting for the Model X but after test driving a Model S on a whim, decided to buy one while I wait. Got a well equipped base model as I was planning to sell it "soon" and base models typically have lowest depreciation. Loved the car, loved the service, Elon was still believable back then.
2. 2015 - Elon announces the 700hp (691hp by spec) P85D and AP which would support summon anyways on private property. After driving the S for a couple of years I realized I like driving a sedan again, and Model X was still "coming soon", and since I had such a good experience with the first Model S, I decided to upgrade to the flagship model. I knew all the capabilities were not all there right away, I was told my full 691hp was coming within a couple of months via OTA as were all the AP features.
3. 2016 - my car would require a 50% power boost in order to attain to the originally advertised 691hp (eventually Tesla admitted that it only produces 463hp, a long way from 691). Worst of all, they made a completely weasel excuse how the motors are capable but limited by the battery capacity. Sadly, they wouldn't let me pay for a P100D upgrade with a check fully capable of the upgrade price, but limited by my account balance. AP also came short on promises and a number of promises made back in 2013 (for example SDK kit to write applications for the car) also didn't come true. My blind spot monitoring works 50% at best. I also found out my 85KWh battery was another Tesla stretch - only 81KWh when new and including brick buffer (77KWh usable).
4. End of 2016, still liking the products and service (and lacking any other viable EV options), I decided to get my wife into a Tesla. I figured the car has been in production long enough that it's no longer just for early adopters (which I am, my wife is not). However, having had the P85D experience I knew that Elon's promises are nowhere near believable anymore. I was also following Elon's other overreaches like the P90DL countergate, so, rather than going to Tesla's top performance and latest vapourware (had he delivered on P85D I would have probably bought P100D), I got an S60D instead, knowing it actually has a bigger battery. I also didn't pay for EAP or FSD - the only outstanding features were automatic headlights, AEB, a reliable blind spot monitoring and rain sensing wipers. I thought they were simple enough features as other car manufacturers on much cheaper cars had them already, so I figured Tesla would get there within a year. I was wrong by the way. I did upgrade to 75KWh once the price went down, mostly because I figured most people will and I didn't want to have a configuration which was likely tested less. There was nice bonus which we got, the free uncorking. I figured it partially offset the missing hp from P85D (an extra 75hp vs. missing 228hp).

Lastly, I am not complaining. I'm simply warning people to not believe any Elon's promises or bleeding edge specifications. My advice is to make your decisions purely of what you can get your hands on today. I still think Tesla's can be worth buying for people (myself included), just set your expectations such that you don't make the purchase based on any future features - best way to avoid disappointment.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Sadly, they wouldn't let me pay for a P100D upgrade with a check fully capable of the upgrade price, but limited by my account balance.

The. Best. Analogy. Ever.

 

[PDZ]

I have not responded to Elon's tweet, and won't now because there are thousands of others ahead of me. But if I had seen it in time, I would have said something to the effect that to be great, his company needs to expand its design perspective beyond California. The cars so far are not truly practical in cold climates, in particular. My biggest beef is the frameless windows. They are simply a pain in the butt in ice or snow, and impractical even with using preheat and other tricks to minimize the effort to remove ice before you try to open a door. Another example is the very weak rear window defroster on the Model S. Yes, i know the cars sell well in Norway, but I think that is in large part because of strong financial incentives. And I applaud the Norwegians for tolerating the winter inadequacies of the Teslas.
Yes, the cars are manageable in winter. Mine is a daily driver and I have used in every day in our current cold snap, and driven it in snow and so on. But it could be a lot better and more competitive.

 

[PDZ]

Where do you live? I'm in Central Massachusetts. It's currently 10°F and snowing, and my RWD 2013 P85 with snow tires handles snow far better than any Audi Quattro I've ever owned. Being able to put the car into the highest suspension setting to clear snow banks left from the plows is also a huge advantage. The combination of electric drive—which can respond to loss of traction or steering direction far faster than an ICE—and the enormous weight of the car are some of the reasons the Norwegians like the car. In fairness, I mainly park the car in my garage or in a covered parking garage at work, but when I have had to clear snow or ice from the windows, the Model S was far easier than our Audi S4 or TTRS. Plus, even in the bitter cold, the car is always 74°F inside if I pre-heat it before I lock my office door at the end of the day.

 

[pdq]

Can you enlighten me as to what are those are other data points? I mean besides "I have a strong feeling" comments from TMC members crossing their fingers, or other completely unsubstantiated speculations. So far the only hard data I got is:

1. Tesla promised automatic wipers for 12/2016.
2. Tesla did not deliver.
3. Elon tweets it's "coming soon" multiple times through the year, along with "silky smooth" and other AP2 features
4. Auto-wipers still not there months later
5. Tesla removed automatic wipers as a feature from their website and Model S/X/3 (3 never had it to start)
6. Elon tweets "it's coming very soon"
7. Plenty of examples out there of Elon tweeting soon and not delivering years later (using this simply as a data point indicating pattern, not a gripe)

What factual data am I missing?

 

[pdq]

I took delivery of my P90D in September of 2015.

My car was recently in the Service Center for 9 days for a repair and I was given a 100D as a loaner. While my car was the P model, they were pretty similar except for acceleration, but that's ok. Here are some things I noted.

• My P90D has rain sensitive windshield wipers with 2 settings. The 100D does not -- a step backwards
• The 100D had much more noticeable motor sound both when accelerating and cruising
• Both my P90D and the 100D have the same problem that intermittently causes the radio to come off mute when you open a door -- I've been reporting it for 2 years and thought it'd be fixed in the new cars.
• While the lane assist in the 100D does a better job of keeping the car centered, it started doing scary stuff like veering sharply to the point of crossing into the adjacent lane. You definitely want to keep a hand on the wheel. I like my P90D better.
• Both cars have the Smart Air suspension and the 100D seemed a bit more supple.
• Alcantra dash board in no longer available. Shame -- many people have commented on how nice it is in my car
• I don't like sun roofs, so I was put off by the solid glass roof, by that's my personal preference.
• The 100D, like my 2 year old P90D still doesn't have coat hooks

 

[SkagitDoug]

Obviously you know the voltage ranges I refer to. In fact there is variance on the line voltage that equipment uses on many places. IE working in a power plant I see 208v up to 240v on those type circuits (that is plate rating, not measured).

You misunderstood my proposed device. It would remain at 110v (or 120v if you'e got to be picky), the delivered amps would be increased spread over 2 or 3 breakers. I am not a sparky, but I do know that what you mention requires a transformer (changing voltage). Drawing power on 3 seperate circuits for a higher total output should be doable, but I don' know what switches, relays etc might be required. The concept is like muxing, using several slow connections to create one fast one.

Electric codes prohibit supplying one device from multiple circuits without special breakrs to protect the power supply should a fault be experienced..