My new solar and Powerwall installation

[ecarfan]

They were originally describing costs *50%* lower than what they're selling it for right now. Think about it.

Thinking about it, that tells me that demand is very high, and a high ranking Tesla Energy employee confirmed to me directly that US demand is well over 100,000 Powerwall units right now. Plus there is strong Euorpean demand, Australian demand, etc.

So Tesla is doing the smart thing, pricing the product based on what the market will pay.

 

[neroden]

I think this is because they can charge 450$ per kWh and the demand is still there. They are production constrained and with the Powerwall V2.0 I expect the price to drop to 300$ per kWh and I expect them to really deliver a lot of Powerwalls. Volume shipments won't happen until early next year.

This is exactly what I think too.

 

[cziegler]

A couple of comments:

I am an original, Roadster 2.5, Model S (Perf Sig) and Toyota Rav4 EV (Tesla under the hood) owner, and if you are willing to spot me a week or two, an IPO shareholder; I have yet to get a communication from Tesla Energy in response to my Powerwall inquiry so I doubt owning a Tesla product is the qualifying criteria for the prioritization of Powerwall sales.

I've kindofsorta been in the solar PV business as a consultant for 15+ years; based on my experience, I suspect an enormous percentage (80% or better) of PV installations will adopt an energy storage element to their systems - over time. I add the "over time" statement because many of my clients, when discussing energy storage costs, are dismissive and state, "I can just run a generator if the grid goes down". I usually respond with, "if you don't regularly run/diligently maintain your generator, there is a good chance it won't start because the fuel clogs the carburetor". I then perform some quick math with them in regards to the amount of gasoline storage one would need for a 1-week grid outage and discuss the value of food in the freezer/refrigerator etc - to no avail. My 80% SWAG, is based on the post PV installation conversations, in which clients call me back and ask, "Can I add that battery back-up option now?"

What a lot of folks do not understand about energy storage is, even if your storage is very limited i.e. ~6kWh, during the peak of the day you will have access to the maximum amount of energy your system is capable of producing, in other words, during daylight you can be energy rich, then as the sun sets, you then adjust your energy consumption relative to your storage capacity. For example, my 9kW PV system only has 4kWh of storage, yet can easily can easily enable me to live a "normal" American lifestyle, including charging our one of our EV's @ a 5kW rate, for a couple of hours, between 10AM and 3PM - the last time we had a natural disaster, the grid was out for a week, even the ICE folks were afflicted as the nearby gas stations need electricity to operate the pumps. In that one event, my storage investment more than paid for itself.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

In 2015 41% of all German residential PV installations were fitted with battery storage, and that's with prices at their current level. Those folks have obvious incentive to store and shift some of their production each day since the grid is like $.29/W, but the economics will be similar all over the world once Tesla knocks 50% off the price of battery storage. Going to be a wild ride.

TSLA Energy is going to rule the world and my SCTY options are worth squat!

 

[Aussie]

Thinking about it, that tells me that demand is very high, and a high ranking Tesla Energy employee confirmed to me directly that US demand is well over 100,000 Powerwall units right now. Plus there is strong Euorpean demand, Australian demand, etc.

So Tesla is doing the smart thing, pricing the product based on what the market will pay.

I am not sure your information is right. Q1 had 2500 Powerwalls delivered worldwide (note: not installed or sold, "delivered"). In Q2, sales were so great, that the Powerwall wasn't even mentioned in the reporting at all. They have now stopped manufacturing the Powerwall which again doesn't look like it being a great success. Demand in Australia has been strong, however installations still seem to be quite rare. In Europe with the exception of Italy, Powerwalls are very hard to find in any household.

 

[ecarfan]

They have now stopped manufacturing the Powerwall which again doesn't look like it being a great success

What is your source for that assertion?

I know for a fact that Powerwalls are being installed in Northern California right now. I do not believe that Tesla has "stopped manufacturing" them.

 

[cziegler]

I am not sure your information is right. Q1 had 2500 Powerwalls delivered worldwide (note: not installed or sold, "delivered"). In Q2, sales were so great, that the Powerwall wasn't even mentioned in the reporting at all. They have now stopped manufacturing the Powerwall which again doesn't look like it being a great success. Demand in Australia has been strong, however installations still seem to be quite rare. In Europe with the exception of Italy, Powerwalls are very hard to find in any household.

The probability of the above statement being true is near zero. Here's my basis:
Every time I've been to a Tesla production facility, I've observed TE Powerwall/pack pods actively traveling down a production line, yet ques of finished product are minimal.
The last time I was in Nevada, I had a few hours between meetings so I sat outside the Gigafactory for a bit, during that time I observed 53" at least 1 tractor trailer departing the factory and they were loaded heavy (no bounce or sway).
I deduct that TE is likely shipping Power* products.
Additionally, I'll repeat from past posts; every distributor I polled, reports strong consumer demand for Powerwall and maintains a waiting list.

 

[ecarfan]

The probability of the above statement being true is near zero

Agreed. And @Aussie has not yet provided any sources to back up his claims.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Why did you choose powerwall?

 

[ecarfan]

Because over the last several years Tesla has demonstrated that they have the expertise to make highly reliable battery storage systems that are extremely resistant to degradation over time, Tesla has demonstrated expertise in energy management software, and Tesla is doing more to create a sustainable energy future than any other company.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Because over the last several years Tesla has demonstrated that they have the expertise to make highly reliable battery storage systems that are extremely resistant to degradation over time, Tesla has demonstrated expertise in energy management software, and Tesla is doing more to create a sustainable energy future than any other company.

For those watching - I wouldn't put down Outback. They have been fabulous for a while now.

Outback Power Inc. - Home

 

[Aussie]

Agreed. And @Aussie has not yet provided any sources to back up his claims.

Source is what you would call a high ranking Tesla employee. In all seriousness, I might be wrong with the production stop. The source is the same which told me about Samsung being used in the Powerwall V2 before the June announcement so it proved correct there. But of course no guarantee that the person is right again.
In terms of demand, I talk to many installers, read reports, attend conferences and nothing points at an ongoing high demand. There was an initial push which filled up installer warehouses in Australia, Italy and other places. But installations seem to be slow. Lets wait for the next quarterly report. If no new numbers are reported there, then demand can't be high.

For those watching - I wouldn't put down Outback. They have been fabulous for a while now.

Fully agree, Outback is a very good company. Their new Skybox inverter will be great for people looking to be self sufficient and they have a reputation for being very robust. Their inverter is also used in the sonnen product.

 

[ecarfan]

After just over a month of operating my new solar/Powerwall system, I was reviewing my PG&E Consumption records and noticed that, compared to before my system went into operation on August 22nd, since that time I am using much less energy from the grid at peak rate times and using more at off peak times. Of course that is what I have been seeing in my SolarEdge web portal data, but good to see it reflected in my electric utility usage data. Here are some screenshots of my PG&E account showing my usage since the beginning of August. Note the difference in the amount of peak rate usage before and after August 22nd. FYI: the very high usage days are times when I charged my Model S or Roadster after arriving home with the battery at a low state of charge (I do not have a fixed commute).

 

[Joelc]

Thinking about it, that tells me that demand is very high, and a high ranking Tesla Energy employee confirmed to me directly that US demand is well over 100,000 Powerwall units right now. Plus there is strong Euorpean demand, Australian demand, etc.

So Tesla is doing the smart thing, pricing the product based on what the market will pay.

I am in the process of having SolarCity evaluate solar for my home. I emphasized to the consultant that I was very interested in adding a Powerwall unit, but he was adamant about not recommending it.
No specific details other than some vague comments regarding reliability and waiting for the next version (?).

 

[ecarfan]

I am in the process of having SolarCity evaluate solar for my home. I emphasized to the consultant that I was very interested in adding a Powerwall unit, but he was adamant about not recommending it.
No specific details other than some vague comments regarding reliability and waiting for the next version (?).

And that is in part why Tesla Energy has to take over SolarCity: because they need to stop giving dumb advice.

 

[miimura]

My question is why you have any significant peak usage at all since getting the PowerWall installed. Three of the last 4 days in your first chart have significant Part-Peak and Peak usage. Have you looked at the intra-day charts to see what was happening? Are you draining the PowerWall so it has nor more to give, or are you using more power than it can deliver at several points during the day, which leads to grid draw? My PG&E intraday chart with a small solar system and no battery looks like this:

My SmartMeter reports 15 minute intervals, so the first peak is one EV charging at 40A and the second peak is another charging at 30A.

 

[Xminus6]

My question is why you have any significant peak usage at all since getting the PowerWall installed. Three of the last 4 days in your first chart have significant Part-Peak and Peak usage. Have you looked at the intra-day charts to see what was happening? Are you draining the PowerWall so it has nor more to give, or are you using more power than it can deliver at several points during the day, which leads to grid draw? My PG&E intraday chart with a small solar system and no battery looks like this:

View attachment 196087

My SmartMeter reports 15 minute intervals, so the first peak is one EV charging at 40A and the second peak is another charging at 30A.

I'm wondering the same thing. My energy usage during the day shows negative usage during nearly all peak times. Maybe he works at home?

 

[Canuck]

Great thread. Very informative. Thanks for sharing @ecarfan.

 

[ecarfan]

My wife runs her business from home and is at home almost all the time. I work intermittently and am often home during the day. We are not on the typical "leave at 8 and home at 6" commuter schedule.

 

[miimura]

My wife runs her business from home and is at home almost all the time. I work intermittently and am often home during the day. We are not on the typical "leave at 8 and home at 6" commuter schedule.

That still doesn't answer why the PowerWall is not eliminating your Peak usage. Now, if you tell me that you're air conditioning 3,000SF to 75F on a 90F day, then I would understand. I am surprised that you have apparently not drilled down into the details to see exactly why.