My Town Hall Notes

[BlackbirdHighway]

They had 2 companies work on the transmission, and now they have another 2 companies that seem to have just started working on the transmission.

They (actually Elon, I think) did say that the 2 new companies are not starting from scratch, but building and improving on the existing design, now that they (Tesla) has a much better understanding of where it went wrong.

With two failed efforts already, and no time left for a third, they are certainly showing they are serious about getting the thing out by pursuing two in parallel. Normally you would not want to incur that sort of expense.

He stressed how long it takes for a transmission development cycle. Molds have to be designed and made in order to produce castings of prototype housings. Other parts have to be machined, then assembled. Then you can't tell if it's successful until many, many miles of testing have been performed, and it all takes lots and lots of time.

 

[TEG]

If you want a Tesla in a timely fashion, get a sinlge speed, get a free transmission upgrade, and get a break on the price in the process.

When you say "get a break on the price" does that just mean the transmission fixes will be free, or are they actually offering discounts to those willing to accept the "temporarily crippled" version of the vehicle?

 

[AGR]

Their most pressing priority is to put cars on the road, they have a single speed (high gear) transmission that works. What stops Tesla from approaching customers with deposits and offering a free transmission upgrade, and a price adjustment on the car for the inconvenience of enduring a transmission and software upgrade at a later date.

Or get a car now, with the single speed plus the upgrade and Tesla pays for the charger and the installation of the charger at the customer's house or business.

How many cars do they need to put on the road in a timely fashion to maintain momentum and credibility? 25-50-75-100? Whatever number they decide, put them on the road in a hurry ASAP....time is of the essence.

This transmission development can drag out, at a juncture where Tesla is almost out of time to have additional delays. They need to have cars on the road driven by customers.

TEG what do you mean by temporarily crippled? They won't do 0 to 60 in 4 seconds, perhaps at this juncture doing "tires to the pavement" is a higher priority than 0 to 60.

 

[tonybelding]

I can't add much to the technical discussion on the transmission, but from what I can tell, the fence-sitters, those that want a Roadster, may even be able to afford it, had better stand back for the time being. Maybe even weigh other EV options.

The way I see it, it's the guys at the front of the line who have the most to worry about. Here I am as number 315, so the problems should be sorted out long before they get to me. The only concern for someone placing a new reservation today would be when they'll get a car, not whether the car will be good. And nobody else is shipping a production EV yet either, so where else are you going to go?

The other impression I got from the meeting is that they are putting intensive resources into the transmission problem. They have major transmission design companies working on it. I haves no doubt whatsoever that they're going to come up with an excellent, reliable transmission. The only enemy is time, because they need it yesterday. Or last year, really.

I hope to hell Tesla figures it out and goes public doing so--and Martin has some sort of options. The now VERY speculative time frame is very close to the Volt's, and at 1/3 the price. That's sobering.

I don't see it.

The Volt is much further from reality than the Roadster, there isn't even a running Volt prototype yet. But more importantly, they're completely different kinds of cars. The Volt isn't a sports car. I'm getting a Roadster as a replacement for my Esprit, not my Bonneville.

 

[TEG]

The Volt is much further from reality than the Roadster, there isn't even a running Volt prototype yet. But more importantly, they're completely different kinds of cars. The Volt isn't a sports car. I'm getting a Roadster as a replacement for my Esprit, not my Bonneville.

Yes! I could see someone going for a Tango, Exige S, or even Lexus GS450h instead of the Roadster, but not the Volt concept. Tesla going out of their way to praise the Volt seems so peculiar to me. I don't see the Volt as any kind of competition to the Roadster.

 

[AGR]

The roadster is a re powered Elise, with enough modifications to make it a viable car.

It would seem that Tesla is realising that a fully electric high volume car (sedan) at a price point that car turn some sort of a profit sell in the market, keep the investors content is intellectually closer to a Volt than a Roadster.

If Tesla is struggling with a transmission, how about a whole car?

If it gets to the point of a Tesla sedan it would have a "range extender" in the form of an ICE to keep the price down, the battery costs down, and sell a reasonable volume to keep the various stakeholders content.

TEG, the roadster is a toy for the individual that wants and can afford a 100K toy! The sedan is the "workhorse" that has to make the money, and its got Volt breathing down its neck.

 

[graham]

The roadster is a re powered Elise, with enough modifications to make it a viable car.

One of the more interesting revelations at the meeting I thought was that only 10% of the Roadster is made of Elise parts. It is almost entirely a new vehicle.

The claim in the meeting was that any given "new" model car you see on the road uses parts from other vehicles of the same manufacturer. So most any new car design isn't entirely new at all.

In the case of the Roadster, it is not so much an Elise conversion anymore because 90% of the parts are unique to the vehicle. It is as much a completely new car as anything else on the road today. While it is true that it is still being assembled on the Lotus manufacturing line, almost all the individual parts come from manufacturers around the globe.

-g

 

[BlackbirdHighway]

Tesla going out of their way to praise the Volt seems so peculiar to me.

Elon spoke about how we need to transition from an oil based transportation system to an electric one as quickly as possible. So anything that helps that cause is worth supporting, hence the support for the Volt.

A lot of people seem to think he is just in it for the money, but I have no reason to doubt the sincerity of his passion for electric cars. If he makes some money on the way, even better.

I also have serious doubts about GM, but I would love to see them prove me wrong.

 

[Dogtown]

Their most pressing priority is to put cars on the road, they have a single speed (high gear) transmission that works.

The absolute worst thing they could do is rush to put cars on the road that is not 100% ready. You start with a bunch of recalls and issue from the production car and you are doomed. You can take time with the test vehicles. The buyers will still be here. Others have waited far longer for far less. The press can overlook the faults with a test car. They will not with a production model.

Elon spoke about how we need to transition from an oil based transportation system to an electric one as quickly as possible. So anything that helps that cause is worth supporting, hence the support for the Volt.

A lot of people seem to think he is just in it for the money, but I have no reason to doubt the sincerity of his passion for electric cars. If he makes some money on the way, even better.

I also have serious doubts about GM, but I would love to see them prove me wrong.

I do not think you can be so sure about that. It is about the money, and it needs to be. It doesn’t do any of us any good if they can not stay in business. After everything that has happened this week it pains me to watch this video. I think it takes on a whole new meaning now:

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x25986_tesla-electric-car_auto

 

[TEG]

I hope they can pull it all together and make it work.

The early optimism and conviction was intoxicating. It is rough to watch reality set in harshly like this.

 

[TEG]

TEG what do you mean by temporarily crippled?

Just what has been discussed. Locked in a single gear and/or "detuned" so that it doesn't perform to published specs, until a later date when it is retrofitted to get back to published specs. I assume that the spec we are really talking about here is the 0-60 < 4. I don't know if these proposed changes would affect range (which is perhaps a bit squishy anyways bouncing around between 200 and 250)

On the positive side of things, the Roadster is still a gorgeous machine. When I saw the concept first introduced, I did expect it would gain some weight and would have a little bit of "spec rot" because that nearly always seems to be the case having watched other cars go from concept->prototype->production.
There are also usually changes to the appearance. So far the changes to the Roadster body are very minor... Like different appearance of the LED taillights that don't seem to detract from the overall design.

Also, on the positive side, I really think Elon would be very dissatisfied with not eventually getting that promised 0-60 time, so I have confidence that they will stay at it until the transmission issue is finally resolved.

I would also guess that there is a small minority of Roadster customers who would actually be OK with it being detuned. Some customers may have come only for the appearance and/or green factor, and may not have any "lead foot" inclinations.

 

[malcolm]

It's not a great pathway, but it is a workable - if unconventional one. Tesla is in the unenviable position of uncovering yet more significant differences between the ICE and the EV at a rather critical point in the development of its first commercial product.

*sugar* happens.

On the positive side, although they missed predicting this, they have the engineering skills available to define and solve the problem and the financial backing to get it done.

It's still a little company attempting to do the impossible. In this respect nothing has changed.

 

[Kardax]

I'm happy to see that the transmission will "probably" be used in WhiteStar. It makes little sense to go through all this money and pain and not carry the fruits of the labor across the whole product line. A result will be that anyone attempting to compete with WhiteStar and other Tesla models will need a transmission to keep up in performance.

I'm also happy to see Elon commiting himself to solving this issue, even if he has do pour more money into Tesla. With both his other companies (Solar City and SpaceX) profitable (and SpaceX not even having a successful launch yet!), he probably has the money to spare...

-Ryan

 

[DDB]

The way I see it, it's the guys at the front of the line who have the most to worry about. Here I am as number 315, so the problems should be sorted out long before they get to me. The only concern for someone placing a new reservation today would be when they'll get a car, not whether the car will be good. And nobody else is shipping a production EV yet either, so where else are you going to go?

The other impression I got from the meeting is that they are putting intensive resources into the transmission problem. They have major transmission design companies working on it. I haves no doubt whatsoever that they're going to come up with an excellent, reliable transmission. The only enemy is time, because they need it yesterday. Or last year, really.



I don't see it.

The Volt is much further from reality than the Roadster, there isn't even a running Volt prototype yet. But more importantly, they're completely different kinds of cars. The Volt isn't a sports car. I'm getting a Roadster as a replacement for my Esprit, not my Bonneville.

I view it a little differently as my motivations are to break our addiction to oil. So, I need a viable EV that looks good. We could argue all day about whether the Roadster is practical, but for my purposes, let's stick with commuter car. I think Tesla would be crazy to place vehicles on the road it knew would have transmission issues several thousand miles later--those could be very costly mistakes as well as PR nightmares that they may never recover from.

I also believe there are other options out there. Supposedly right now you can order a car from hybrid technologies, if you really want to gamble. By the time your number rolls around, I'd bet you lunch GM has a production Volt ready to roll as does Phoenix, miles, and God willing--ZAP. My point is that 2 years is a long way off and in this business, batteries change daily (see Toshibia's press release yesterday and Enerdel's last week). But for Tesla to put rubber on the road knowing it's product isn't complete, is a lawsuit and mistake waiting to happen.

 

[AGR]

The majority of the roadster "drives" have been done in high gear. The car has a 2 speed transmission on the spec sheet, and a single speed transmission when "the rubber meets the road".

Is it possible that these 2 additional transmission companies will come out and say "you need a clutch" lets go back to the drawing board?

 

[tonybelding]

The majority of the roadster "drives" have been done in high gear. The car has a 2 speed transmission on the spec sheet, and a single speed transmission when "the rubber meets the road".

Is it possible that these 2 additional transmission companies will come out and say "you need a clutch" lets go back to the drawing board?

No. We were told they are taking the existing transmission design and correcting the problems with it. These are things like the types of bearings used, the flow of lubricant to the various bearings, mounting flanges that crack from metal fatigue, etc. They aren't changing the fundamental design of the transmission.

Remember they already have a transmission that works as intended for a few thousand miles. They just need to make it robust.

 

[Tesla2Go]

I hope they can pull it all together and make it work.

The early optimism and conviction was intoxicating. It is rough to watch reality set in harshly like this.

It seems the general public is a lot harsher, you get the feeling there's an army of people just dying to say "I told you so" and speculating every little issue to death. Here is a new company trying to build an entirely new high performance vehicle, that has already stirred the big automakers into speeding up their plans for electric vehicles and is slowly but surely changing peoples perceptions about what an electric car can deliver. If it weren't for Tesla all we would hear about would still be ethanol and hydrogen. Teslas contribution is a LOT more than just a product. So is there really a reason to go from ecstasy to doom and gloom so quickly? Tesla is not building a "toy" for rich people. If this is all some people understand then no wonder we haven't seen vehicles like the Roadster until now. If anybody should be frustrated it should be Tesla Motors for trying to deal with the extremely fickle general public while having to deal with hundreds of issues on a daily basis, which frankly we don't know sh*t about. All we have are our precious opinions which in the end amount to nothing, and change nothing. So all my respect to the people who are actually trying.

 

[DDB]

It seems the general public is a lot harsher, you get the feeling there's an army of people just dying to say "I told you so" and speculating every little issue to death. Here is a new company trying to build an entirely new high performance vehicle, that has already stirred the big automakers into speeding up their plans for electric vehicles and is slowly but surely changing peoples perceptions about what an electric car can deliver. If it weren't for Tesla all we would hear about would still be ethanol and hydrogen. Teslas contribution is a LOT more than just a product. So is there really a reason to go from ecstasy to doom and gloom so quickly? Tesla is not building a "toy" for rich people. If this is all some people understand then no wonder we haven't seen vehicles like the Roadster until now. If anybody should be frustrated it should be Tesla Motors for trying to deal with the extremely fickle general public while having to deal with hundreds of issues on a daily basis, which frankly we don't know sh*t about. All we have are our precious opinions which in the end amount to nothing, and change nothing. So all my respect to the people who are actually trying.

I don't disagree that the public is harsh, but that's the free market and the masses will determine the success or failure of Tesla. Opinion does matter. Good point about Tesla igniting a fire that has incited all manufacturers to take notice...GM, Toyota, etc. But opinions DO matter because I spend my money based on my opinion. If a product is promised of a certain quality available at a certain time, then I expect to get it at face value. Moreover, this cuts across some serious social issues for a lot of us even more so than just banter about a performance car (like Tony's interest--which is fine by the way). So, I hope the powers that be are listening out there, as a potential customer who can afford it. I'm weighing my options and expressing concerns I have.

 

[Tesla2Go]

I don't disagree that the public is harsh, but that's the free market and the masses will determine the success or failure of Tesla.

I hope that's not entirely true, because that would be the main reason to be depressed, looking at some of the truly retarded comments posted on various blogs where Tesla is mentioned...

Seeing how much trouble the use of oil to fuel your car brings, besides polluting the areas where concentrations of people live, we have wars, political blackmail, oil tankers destroying some unique wildlife habitat a few times a year....I would gladly accept a less than perfect first product that brings about a new era. But I'm not that naive to think the general public would ease up on their severity for any pioneer, it just strikes me as extremely hypocritical of a person to complain that a company isn't being run according to their high moral and ethical standards regarding openness and sincerity, when that persons free market decisions on buying something seems to be based purely on short sighted, personal gain disregarding the big picture.

 

[tonybelding]

I hope that's not entirely true, because that would be the main reason to be depressed, looking at some of the truly retarded comments posted on various blogs where Tesla is mentioned...

It's striking how uninformed the comments become as soon as you move away from the "green" blog sites. Like for example, the comments on AutoBlog as compared with the ones on AutoBlogGreen.

Everyone has an opinion and is willing to share it. It reminds me of what somebody once said about Texas: Anyone you ask will happily tell you how to get to any place in the state, even if they don't know where it is.

Obviously there is a lot of education to be done.

However, this might be a good moment to remind everyone that the general public doesn't have a clue about Tesla's difficulties. Despite all the publicity, most people still don't know about Tesla. Among those who know the Roadster exists, most of them have no idea about the delays and problems. Those of us who are closely following Tesla's every move need to take a deep breath, step back, and remind ourselves that most of the world isn't closely following Tesla's every move. Not yet, anyhow. In a few months after some celebs begin getting their cars and the glowing reports start appearing in magazines, things will look different.