Myusername and numerology thread (out of market action)

[myusername]

I never relate how the ER is with how the SP behave. The market is irrational.

As a long term investor, I thought the ER was ok. Not great, but not bad either.

For me, the ER would have been bad if Elon would have said they have no idea when will they get out of production hell, they're just putting all their effort toward it. And that's it.

Remember this?

Oct 9/2017:
https://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-elaborates-on-tesla-model-3-production-hell-w-1819290728

"Following a report from the Wall Street Journal last week claiming that major elements of the Tesla Model 3 production line were being carried out by hand while the machinery meant to be doing it was still being sorted out, Elon Musk posted a video of the production line on Sunday, seemingly in response to the report."

Then this board extrapolated "1/10th of 10k/week means they're running at 1k/wk!!!"... remember that? 5 to 6 months ago?

And now Elon "said" something, and that makes this a "not bad" ER for you?

 

[myusername]

My reservation has been put now on early 2019 from perviously late 2018 as well. Looks like they waited for that expected adjustment after the CC to give people the context.

does "perviously" mean what I think it means?

 

[myusername]

After-hours: 316.00

mods... feel free to move this directly. but again, why?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Remember this?

Oct 9/2017:
https://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-elaborates-on-tesla-model-3-production-hell-w-1819290728

"Following a report from the Wall Street Journal last week claiming that major elements of the Tesla Model 3 production line were being carried out by hand while the machinery meant to be doing it was still being sorted out, Elon Musk posted a video of the production line on Sunday, seemingly in response to the report."

Then this board extrapolated "1/10th of 10k/week means they're running at 1k/wk!!!"... remember that? 5 to 6 months ago?

And now Elon "said" something, and that makes this a "not bad" ER for you?

I don't speak for Starno, but what makes this ER good for me is a good cash preservation tactics. And it doesn't matter that some of these are one off items. Did you notice that Tesla always has some solution? There are smart people working there that are solving hard problems, including how to run cash negative as much as possible in order to invest as much as possible in future products... Most of people that doesn't get Tesla assumes things will stay as is forever, and then Tesla will run out of money. No, it will not, Tesla is growing concern and has flexibility to slow down investments and wait for revenue/gross margin o catch up if they wanted. Which they don't.
And yes, they're not most efficient, and they screw up lots of money in the process. That's ok. That's the price you have to pay to achieve something new, you can't micro-optimize.
I've worked in TCX 2000-2016. At some point it was $18M capitalization. Look it up now. And I've seen this strategy, including many errors and screw ups and thought that was bad. And it wasn't. That was the way to do it to get where TCX is today. BTW, pre-2000 results are not really TCX results, it's a artifact of a reverse-merger of a failed company (Infonautics!?) that Tucows did to became public and shore up its balance sheet in 2000.

And BTW, I get your beef with some ultra-cheerleaders, but they don't represent everyone. I've blocked most of them anyhow, so I don't even know what is being said on that side...

 

[myusername]

Remember this?

Oct 9/2017:
https://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-elaborates-on-tesla-model-3-production-hell-w-1819290728

"Following a report from the Wall Street Journal last week claiming that major elements of the Tesla Model 3 production line were being carried out by hand while the machinery meant to be doing it was still being sorted out, Elon Musk posted a video of the production line on Sunday, seemingly in response to the report."

Then this board extrapolated "1/10th of 10k/week means they're running at 1k/wk!!!"... remember that? 5 to 6 months ago?

And now Elon "said" something, and that makes this a "not bad" ER for you?

hey mods... WTF? why do you move everything I post to this thread? are you scared? are you scared to hear the truth about your company? do you "mod" this forum for only positive reenforcement of the company? are you bias? are you paid?

what is your motivation? there's NOTHING in this post that warrants removal from the thread it was originally posted on.

you need to justify your actions to retain any credibility.... unless this entire forum is a pump scam.

moving this post will only prove my point.

 

[myusername]

imo this sp drop i pure macro and oportunistic shorts driven. ER was solid. a beat with strong guidance.

as in the past sp drop for 2-4 days after ER, almost always. bad macro makes they dive larger. will turn around soon.

my 2019 calls still hurt.. i never learn and hang on..

"ER was solid. a beat with strong guidance."

where'd you get this idea? Phil Lebeau? consensus on this board? they had a record loss and "strong guidance" is code for Elon made big promises again. "I think we could be very cash flow positive and profitable in... oh... about... well... probably... maybe... around... let's say... 5 months... but we should probably invest in the Model Y"

did they just completely whiff on the Model 3? are they finding demand issues and that's the driver for the Model Y? wasn't the Model 3 supposed to make them and you rich beyond your wildest dreams and the Model Y be a simple expense that just doubles down on the wealth?

or does it appear that they are actually just becoming a simple auto company where making cars is hard.

 

[myusername]

Well, that's where my frustration comes from, the fact that I know human life is precious and the whole reason I want to get an EV is to make the world a better place for my daughter and her children. I understand the importance of society switching to producing and using renewable energy and now I have to continue to pollute the Earth with my ICE car until the end of this year. Just sucks and I'm burnt out, but nothing can be done. So we wait.....

Buy a Bolt. You could have done that yesterday. Or a Volt. You could have done that 2 years ago. Or is all of this sentiment you express not worth driving in a car that has a boxy look.

As a matter of fact... I made this point 3 years ago. If the world was being pushed into more BHEVs or PHEVs in the time that Tesla has existed, the world would be well on the path to significantly reducing auto emissions. But instead Elon convinced us that we must drive a S3XY car in order to save the planet. And then he spent 15 years telling us that could be had for $35k.

Now he's convinced everyone that BEV is the ONLY option. Where, if we'd just pushed towards something that didn't require significant infrastructure changes, we wouldn't have to wait.

Imagine if STEP #1 in saving the planet was: Reduce Auto Emissions w/ The Tools We Have

and STEP #2 was: Review and Decide If Further Reductions Are Needed

Imagine a world where 50% of commutes were carbon free... That could have happened years ago with PHEVs. But no... we must wait for Tesla and rebuild ALL of our gas stations.

Guess what would have happened if we went to PHEVs? Gas stations would have started losing money. They would have started reducing in numbers. They would have TRANSITIONED into the new approach.

But instead what we have is: "ICE SUCKS... I HATE ICE... NO MORE ICE" -- so you've created a war and now you can't use any of that infrastructure.

And now Tesla is risking the ENTIRE movement. The WHOLE THING. If they fail... we'll take 10 steps back.

We are exactly at the point I expected. And here's why I've been pissed off and shorting this stock for years...

Because I'm an environmentalist. I am a Democrat. I believe in Government subsidized Science funding. I do not believe in Government funded Luxury Vehicle funding. I do not believe in funding one Guru to save us.

And Tesla and Elon have created a cult of followers that are primed for doing HARM to the whole thing. "It's too boxy... who want's a stupid Chevy... they're old and Tesla's in Silicon Valley"

Thanks. Well done guys. If Tesla nose dives... it's your fault we've taken 10 steps back.

 

[ggies07]

Buy a Bolt. You could have done that yesterday.

I would have already if GM had built out a fast charging network across the states, but they haven't.

I'm sticking with Tesla and waiting on a Model 3 for 2 main reasons:

-battery chemistry
-Supercharger network
then
-looks of the car
-OTA
-Autonomous capability

I can't afford to have the battery degrade an enormous amount in year 6 or 7 as I need this car to last over 10 years.

 

[myusername]

“The “2,000 to 2,500” units per week cited in this comment refers solely to the capacity of the additional automated battery module manufacturing equipment that is currently located in Germany, and not to Tesla’s total Model 3 production run rate or to the capacity of the automated battery module equipment that is already present at Gigafactory 1. Tesla’s ability to meet its target of 2,500 per week by end of Q1 2018 is not dependent on the additional equipment that is currently located in Germany, as that equipment is expected to start ramping production during Q2 2018. With respect to battery module production, Tesla’s ability to meet its target of 2,500 per week by end of Q1 2018 is dependent only on the equipment that is already present at Gigafactory 1, as well as the incremental capacity that is currently being added through the semi-automated lines that were also discussed during the conference call.”

Tesla clarifies comments about Model 3 production ramp – no need for new battery line for 2,500 units per week

The fun part is that me as a non native speaker did not read out of the CC what all you heard. My view was and is that 2,500 give and take is a safe target in Q1 and on track for Q2 as well. As a result I added at $302 considering the situation much better than predicted from most people here. Would not be surprised if we see a nice run early next week if Marcos allow it.

ok... great, but then how long has this been known? 9 months ago they said they planned on hitting 5k/wk 2 months ago. And now we find out that

"Tesla’s ability to meet its target of 2,500 per week by end of Q1 2018 is not dependent on the additional equipment that is currently located in Germany, as that equipment is expected to start ramping production during Q2 2018."

so, how is it possible they did not know this in Q3/Q4?

 

[myusername]

Really good news, but I really have to question how this was handled. Why was their a need to suddenly clarify this particular statement? It wasn't factually wrong, it was just confusingly worded. But that is par for the course with Elon.

because everything they do is engineered to perpetuate a story... they pounce on any misleading negative information... we've seen this repeatedly, with Tweets, headlines, now the 10k. But when the media says "Tesla is receiving 1500 Model 3 reservations per day!"... did you see them update the 10k with: "that meant for the 3 days after the Model 3 initial production delivery party [in July] and shouldn't be extrapolated."

 

[myusername]

Wait. What? How many Twitter followers does he have? How many people here with kids have remarked about their children and their children’s friends knowing about Tesla/being excited about Tesla? What’s the age range of posters on this forum?

FTR, I’m the common man as are almost every person I know. None of us nerds. I don’t know a million people or anything but I do have more than 2 FB friends.

Here’s the deal, Elon doesn’t have to appeal to everyone to accomplish the mission. Those that need to get him now, do. Those that don’t will get him later, or not and they’ll just own an EV at some point because that’ll have become the obvious choice.

And yeah, evil, money hunger, vindictive people most certainly are playing a role here. If you’d prefer to soften that with the word ignorant have at it, but that doesn’t change the motive of the likes of Cory J, Broder, Mark S., Bob L, and the rest if the gang.

I will agree that a large portion of the human population is resistant to change preferring the comfort of what they THINK they know.

Tesla.com 10/16/2016: "We are excited to announce that, as of today, all Tesla vehicles produced in our factory – including Model 3 – will have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability"

Elon 02/07/2018: "But we could have done the coast-to-coast drive, but it would have required too much specialized code to effectively game it or make it somewhat brittle and that it would work for one particular route, but not the general solution."

Today you are able to check a box on the Model 3 options where you can pay for full self driving.

Assuming I fall into your characterization, "evil, money hunger, vindictive people"... I also expect you have a damn good explanation for how the above is not fraud?

 

[myusername]

No cash raise needed. Didnt you hear the CC? The cash flow machine that is 10k model 3s a week will fund Y. Dont forget a couple billion in reservations from Y, Semi and Roadster as well as the coming pickup truck. What is closer to happening, Elon's profitability prediction or GM's profitability on Bolt sans Lidar and fsd hardware much less with it?

You still have no explanation for how GM is going to cut the cost of the Bolt and all the hardware required for Self driving, which they cannot even do with $100k worth of hardware. You also do not address the lack of a charging network or an actual long range EV. 230 miles is ok, but the hardware inside the car to do self driving cuts that range in half so its really a non-starter. Tesla will have a half million AP2+ on the roads by the time FSD is ready and GM will have a few thousand $100,000 bolts? I mean after 10 years of giving Lyfts, those cars might pay back, but probably not. The cost per mile with $100k worth of hardware combined with the downtime is going to be higher then the cost of gas and a driver. GM has no battery supply to create more then 20k bolts a year, which is good because if they did create more then that, they would be losing $10k x 20k or 30k or 40k or what ever amount they build and that does not include the $70k lidar and other hardware required to do roughly what Tesla does with $2500 or less worth of hardware (which customers pay for) at a take rate of about 75%+.

What happens faster.. $70 dollar lidar from $70k today, or Tesla gets Vision and NN to work for self driving? I know your answer as I think you are related to @mmd. But that question is more for those who have you on ignore already.

A) there isn't even an ETA for 10k/wk anymore... if it happened at some point in 2019, then they're going to build a factory and deliver the MY in 1 year?... or are we looking at 2022 now for MY?

B) 10k/wk w/ ASP of $42k = $20B... that combined with MS/MX makes Tesla a $30B car company... 1/4th the size of BMW... well into the 2020s... even if they became cash flow positive, they'd still not have enough FCF to sustain MY, Semi and Truck ambitions. if this continues, they'll be explaining the same things they are today in 2024.

C) FSD was a marketing campaign. The sooner you realize that, the better.

 

[myusername]

Sorry but did you read the 8k ? Tesla doesn't need any equipment from Germany to get to 2500/w.

yeah, so we should expect a $1T market cap soon, right?

please tell me how the 8k fixed everything. 2018 == sub $20B revs, 2019 == sub $30B revs, 2020 ~= $30B revs. -- and that's IF they succeed

Exactly when do you expect Tesla become the size of BMW which is when TSLA's current SP would finally be justified? 2023? 2025? How do you justify today's current SP based on slow growth for Tesla? yes, that's slow growth above for a $300 SP $50B market cap while currently at $12B in revs.

 

[myusername]

They don’t have to prove anything in my books, skeptics gonna be skeptics even when you shove the evidence down their throats. I’m still hearing about how EVs won’t ever be viable vehicles until they can go a bajillion miles on a single charge and then recharge in 15 seconds. Heck, I’m still hearing how Model S is vaporware.

You’re still new here, but people said the same thing about the S and X launch. I’ve seen this movie before and I’m quite certain the ending doesn’t change on this viewing either: we win.

What’s shameful to me is the armchair quarterbacks thinking they’re in some sort of position to be critical of the people working their pootooties off trying to change the world for all our benefits, while they recline in their laz-i-boys, crunch some numbers and try to make money off others hard work.

Hey, if the shoe doesn’t fit then dont try and cram it on your foot. K? But if it does, I hope you get bunions.



*vigorous eyeroll*. The target is $600B. Doesn’t matter if the starting point is 60B or 52B or zero.

"They don’t have to prove anything in my books"

actually... they do. whatever you want to call a success in the past is meaningless. the entire premise of all historical "successes" was always pinned on a mass market vehicle being profitable, affordable and changing the world.

they absolutely have to prove this. if Tesla failed today, the MS and MX would go down in history books as a novelty that allowed a few hundred thousand rich people zoom from 0-60 at ludicrous speed. not only that, but they'd have set the entire environmental front back farther than when they started, because Elon would be considered something relative to Enron.

they are currently proving the skeptics right. as VA suggested.

 

[Krugerrand]

"They don’t have to prove anything in my books"

actually... they do.

No, they don’t. It’s my book. I get to write it anyway I want just as you get to rant and rave and suffer from indigestion and think history hasnt already been drastically changed regardless of the ramp of Model 3. The snowball is already headed down the mountain. If it takes a few seconds more to reach the bottom, so be it. But it’s getting there and you can’t stop it.

 

[Reciprocity]

A) there isn't even an ETA for 10k/wk anymore... if it happened at some point in 2019, then they're going to build a factory and deliver the MY in 1 year?... or are we looking at 2022 now for MY?

B) 10k/wk w/ ASP of $42k = $20B... that combined with MS/MX makes Tesla a $30B car company... 1/4th the size of BMW... well into the 2020s... even if they became cash flow positive, they'd still not have enough FCF to sustain MY, Semi and Truck ambitions. if this continues, they'll be explaining the same things they are today in 2024.

C) FSD was a marketing campaign. The sooner you realize that, the better.

A. They are going to build Y in Fremont to start. It's based on the model 3, so they should be able to build it on the same lines initially. For volume, they will need dedicated lines.

B. Your ASP are off based on actually demand and model 3 info. Com has stats from reservation holders that puts ASP as high as $50k. BMW had revs of $120B/Y? Try $94B in 2016 and growing much slower then Tesla. I assume your mean 1/4 in terms of units. But BMW sells a ton of mini Cooper and 1s and 2s which are basically Corollas with a BMW logo in terms of margins. At some point tesla will go to the credit markets again, just not this year. An example would be a factory I'm China to build everything under one roof.

By 2020 BMW revs will shrink due to competition from model 3 and Y the same way they lost market share in 6/7 series to the model S. Tesla will be making a million cars a year by 2021, ASP in the $65-70k range. But energy products by then could be contributing $30B/y easily. 5 million new roofs per year, at 10% being solar roofs, it would be $25b alone, and another $10b in traditional solar and powerwalls. I know it's not fair because BMW is just a car company, but even BMW is using old batteries for energy storage solutions, so good for them.

C. I disagree. I think Elon explained it well in the CC. Maybe you just don't get it. The alpha go analogy is perfect. It went from impossible, to beating great players to beating all players in less then a year. And alpha zero did it by playing itself. The rate of improvement is beyond exponential. It can go from being a terrible driver today, to being an average driver in 6 months to being the best driver ever 3 months later and 10x better then the best drivers in the world in another 3 months. What won't happen is that lidar won't go from $70k to $700 in the same time scales. Lidar will be the crutch that kills the competition because they will have solved the wrong problem.

 

[myusername]

A. They are going to build Y in Fremont to start. It's based on the model 3, so they should be able to build it on the same lines initially. For volume, they will need dedicated lines.

B. Your ASP are off based on actually demand and model 3 info. Com has stats from reservation holders that puts ASP as high as $50k. BMW had revs of $120B/Y? Try $94B in 2016 and growing much slower then Tesla. I assume your mean 1/4 in terms of units. But BMW sells a ton of mini Cooper and 1s and 2s which are basically Corollas with a BMW logo in terms of margins. At some point tesla will go to the credit markets again, just not this year. An example would be a factory I'm China to build everything under one roof.

By 2020 BMW revs will shrink due to competition from model 3 and Y the same way they lost market share in 6/7 series to the model S. Tesla will be making a million cars a year by 2021, ASP in the $65-70k range. But energy products by then could be contributing $30B/y easily. 5 million new roofs per year, at 10% being solar roofs, it would be $25b alone, and another $10b in traditional solar and powerwalls. I know it's not fair because BMW is just a car company, but even BMW is using old batteries for energy storage solutions, so good for them.

C. I disagree. I think Elon explained it well in the CC. Maybe you just don't get it. The alpha go analogy is perfect. It went from impossible, to beating great players to beating all players in less then a year. And alpha zero did it by playing itself. The rate of improvement is beyond exponential. It can go from being a terrible driver today, to being an average driver in 6 months to being the best driver ever 3 months later and 10x better then the best drivers in the world in another 3 months. What won't happen is that lidar won't go from $70k to $700 in the same time scales. Lidar will be the crutch that kills the competition because they will have solved the wrong problem.

A) no they aren't... they just aren't going to squeeze more out of Freemont. They certainly aren't going to scale there. 1,500 cars in a quarter is not "production".

B) Where do you get your demand info that suggests they're going to sell 500k/yr of a 3-series class of vehicle w/out tax credits for an ASP -- AVERAGE SALE PRICE -- of $50k in the REAL WORLD?... where's this fictitious market?

B-2) That's Euros bro. $94B Euros.

C) No... no more analogies... no more stories... no more "First Principles" lessons. They're out of tools in the "persuasion" box. Time to deliver. FSD does not exist... and you're trying to persuade me that it does with Alpha Go? Because Elon did? That's weird.

"At some point tesla will go to the credit markets again, just not this year."

is this the consensus now? the only question is, will this be disproved in a matter of days, weeks or months.

 

[myusername]

Late to this discussion. Let me just add one contemplation to those already offered:
If that supplier responsible for dropping the modules was PANA, one factor may have been the strict separation of company secrets -- we have heard that there is a "wall" between parts of GF.

Of course, regardless of where the fatuous miss occurred, the blame rests with Tesla and ultimately Elon. And he did take responsibility, publically, at the previous ER, and has worked hard to identify and fix the problem.

I wonder if we will ever know what actually happened. No matter, as long as it is fixed. Yet another lesson learned for Tesla's development -- costly, but hopefully also valuable.

"I wonder if we will ever know what actually happened."

A) no... you won't. the entire conversation on this thread is pure speculation, compounded by further speculation. I would suggest, you know virtually nothing at all in regards to "what's failing".

B) why do you guys keep talking in the past tense? do you have some sort of information that suggests all the problems are fixed? how many times do you need to be disappointed about something said 3 to 6 months ago before it registers as a pattern?

 

[Reciprocity]

A) no they aren't... they just aren't going to squeeze more out of Freemont. They certainly aren't going to scale there. 1,500 cars in a quarter is not "production".

B) Where do you get your demand info that suggests they're going to sell 500k/yr of a 3-series class of vehicle w/out tax credits for an ASP -- AVERAGE SALE PRICE -- of $50k in the REAL WORLD?... where's this fictitious market?

B-2) That's Euros bro. $94B Euros.

C) No... no more analogies... no more stories... no more "First Principles" lessons. They're out of tools in the "persuasion" box. Time to deliver. FSD does not exist... and you're trying to persuade me that it does with Alpha Go? Because Elon did? That's weird.

"At some point tesla will go to the credit markets again, just not this year."

is this the consensus now? the only question is, will this be disproved in a matter of days, weeks or months.

A) sorry, you don't work there so I don't trust you to "know" anything. I know what they tell me which had always proven correct if not late.

B) the ASP today is $50k. Data from places that have gathered massive amounts reservation data like model3info.com show that people expect to pay on average $50k+ and data from @Troy that runs a delivery estimator and gathers data on what people are wanting shows that the cheapest model is the least popular. The base model 3 is competitive with a Camry level car. I have done the math for you a dozen times, I won't do it again. A half million people reserved a car they hadnt even seen in person and waited 2 years. What do you think is going to happen when people actually ride in one? I know to don't get it, but Tesla's are far superior to other vehicles.

B-2) You got me there. But how long with that be 4x tesla when Tesla is growing revs at over 50% a year and BMW is only growing through acquisition of brands like Mini Cooper. $30B becomes $45B, becomes $68B, becomes $102B and so on until Tesla dwarfs BMW.

C) I guess you don't know what an analogy is.. things are impossible until they are not. I trust the guy who regularly does the impossible more then you. Sorry, not sorry.

 

[Reciprocity]

A) sorry, you don't work there so I don't trust you to "know" anything. I know what they tell me which had always proven correct if not late.

B) the ASP today is $50k. Data from places that have gathered massive amounts reservation data like model3info.com show that people expect to pay on average $50k+ and data from @Troy that runs a delivery estimator and gathers data on what people are wanting shows that the cheapest model is the least popular. The base model 3 is competitive with a Camry level car. I have done the math for you a dozen times, I won't do it again. A half million people reserved a car they hadnt even seen in person and waited 2 years. What do you think is going to happen when people actually ride in one? I know to don't get it, but Tesla's are far superior to other vehicles.

B-2) You got me there. But how long with that be 4x tesla when Tesla is growing revs at over 50% a year and BMW is only growing through acquisition of brands like Mini Cooper. $30B becomes $45B, becomes $68B, becomes $102B and so on until Tesla dwarfs BMW.

C) I guess you don't know what an analogy is.. things are impossible until they are not. I trust the guy who regularly does the impossible more then you. Sorry, not sorry.

ASP - Tesla Model 3 average sale price and budget to be closer to $50,000 based on latest data from reservation holders