Natural Gas vs Heat pumps for heating

[mspohr]

So I think what you're you're saying is the Roseville, CA model is more like the right model? Where Roseville has its own gas generation sources (mostly gas) plus some community solar + batteries (still in pilot). Roseville still sources from the Federal DOE WAPA, and gets general energy resiliency from this federal energy market (so Roseville doesn't go dark if one of their gas turbines goes offline). But, Roseville maintains its own transmission lines and doesn't really share with neighboring cities or PG&E (only shares with the WAPA).

I think the challenge I've seen in this Roseville model is that it would be too difficult for the city itself to make the investments necessary to rapidly grow it's green generation (with big ole solar farms, lots of turbines, and biomass). And since there's definitely no hydro going on there. Because those other sources require a lot of money to boot up, a city like Roseville (about 130,000 residents) lacks the buying power to get those projects running.

Interesting about Roseville. There are lots of municipal utilities which have similar structures. There are certainly challenges in moving to renewable energy regardless of the structure of the system. It seems to be easier for large utilities to organize financing for large generating plants. However, that does not mean this is the best route to follow. Roseville would certainly benefit from increased distributed resources on the grid.
California has been planning for DERs for some time:

Distributed Energy Resource (DER) Action Plan

www.cpuc.ca.gov

https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/-/media/cpuc-website/divisions/energy-division/documents/distributed-energy-resources-action-plan/draft-der-action-plan-20-public.pdf

The grid is addressed in this section:
TRACK TWO: Grid Infrastructure
The Infrastructure Track is focused on CPUC actions to guide utility infrastructure planning and
operations to maximize the value of DERs interconnected to the electric grid.
Vision Element 2A
Utility infrastructure business processes, including planning, all-source resource
acquisition, and operations, are transparent, responsive to local conditions and community
needs, and seamlessly integrate cost-effective distributed energy resources.

I think it's important to understand and recognize the difference between transmission and distribution. Transmission refers to unidirectional power from large generators over long distances. The distribution part of the grid distributes power to users and from local resources. It is bi-directional and can cover large areas and definitely benefits from have a large number of generation and user resources.

 

[mspohr]

Do we actually have examples of a local community solar project that is applicable as a model to emulate?

The Jonathan Scott (taller Property Brothers Guy) documentary highlighted a use of Tribal lands to deploy a community solar project on a reservation. But that's not really scalable for "normal" US or California cities/counties where there are lots of roadblocks related to the use of the land near that city/county.

I live in Contra Costa County and we have a community choice aggregator known as MCE. They kind of market/trick residents here into thinking their "deep green" renewable energy tier buys power from a community solar project. But really all MCE does is use the rate to buy energy credits to source energy from "green generation credits". So somewhere out there is a solar farm that MCE is helping subsidize (through those credits). But the only way MCE would work is if PG&E's transmission lines are fully working since there is no community-based solar farm in this model (no community micro grid).

I think Tesla's attempt to equip an entire new subdivision with solar + powerwalls is cool. But PG&E would say it harms poor folks. And is not applicable for the millions of existing homes already in place. And this new subdivision is still grid-tied and ultimately relies on the same large-scale grid and infrastructure.

Other than a small sliver of a renewable solar project within the Roseville, CA example from above, I just can't find reasonably deployed "local community solar" that is working. I do see some community proposals that would need a huge infusion of money. Unfortunately, PG&E thinks they should be the ones to deploy those new solutions at the macro level. And California policymakers tend to agree with PG&E. Sad.

Distributed energy resources are not to be confused with local community projects. A community solar project would benefit from being part of a DER but is not a DER.

 

[holeydonut]

Distributed energy resources are not to be confused with local community projects. A community solar project would benefit from being part of a DER but is not a DER.

I guess I'm missing the point of you bringing up DER as an example though. Because most of the European DERs the way you outline required a large amount of government money to get going. And the DER teams here on the USA side (eg in the Berkeley Labs DER think-tank and the CPUC thing you reference above) are still initiatives to ultimately have the government or state-allowed-monopoly to execute the DER investments.

These DERs are not community driven proposals; they're just ways for PG&E to be a bit more distributed by leaning more on a micro/local grid solution instead of their old school way from the early 1900s. But it's still PG&E running the show end to end.

Anyway, I don't see how the DER plan will be intelligently deployed in the USA with the utilities set up the way they are without a crap ton more government money and a crap ton higher rates. Which means individuals homeowners need to still invest in their own heat pumps (the genesis of this thread), monster solar arrays, and lots of batteries. DER or no DER, we can't trust PG&E or the government to come through for us.

 

[mspohr]

And who pays for this?

An advantage of DERs is that they do not require large generating plants and transmission lines with large capital requirements. They use the existing distribution grid which most of the time has the capacity to accommodate bidirectional power flow.
The investment needs to be in information systems to measure and control power within the distribution grid. These are being developed by FERC DER Order 2222. Distributed Energy Resources
Tesla has implemented systems in California, Texas, and Germany.

 

[mspohr]

I guess I'm missing the point of you bringing up DER as an example though. Because most of the European DERs the way you outline required a large amount of government money to get going. And the DER teams here on the USA side (eg in the Berkeley Labs DER think-tank and the CPUC thing you reference above) are still initiatives to ultimately have the government or state-allowed-monopoly to execute the DER investments.

These DERs are not community driven proposals; they're just ways for PG&E to be a bit more distributed by leaning more on a micro/local grid solution instead of their old school way from the early 1900s. But it's still PG&E running the show end to end.

Anyway, I don't see how the DER plan will be intelligently deployed in the USA with the utilities set up the way they are without a crap ton more government money and a crap ton higher rates. Which means individuals homeowners need to still invest in their own heat pumps (the genesis of this thread), monster solar arrays, and lots of batteries. DER or no DER, we can't trust PG&E or the government to come through for us.

The beauty of DERs is that they do not require large investments in infrastructure. They use the existing grid resources. They open the grid to everyone through transparent rules and regulations. This weakens the power of large utilities such as PG&E by forcing them to cooperate with small producers.
Tesla's California and Texas DERs are a good example of this and show how Tesla could be a major disruptor of the energy grid.

 

[holeydonut]

The beauty of DERs is that they do not require large investments in infrastructure. They use the existing grid resources. They open the grid to everyone through transparent rules and regulations. This weakens the power of large utilities such as PG&E by forcing them to cooperate with small producers.
Tesla's California and Texas DERs are a good example of this and show how Tesla could be a major disruptor of the energy grid.

Just to make sure you and I are on the same page, is what Tesla calls their California VPP the same as what you're calling their California DER?

Or is Tesla doing something else with a DER that I'm not wholly aware of?

Because PG&E insists things like this Tesla VPP significantly harms poor people. To the extent PG&E wants to put a meter between the solar generation and the batteries to make sure homeowners pay their fair share for what they're using for themselves. Then PG&E wants homeowners to pay again if the VPP pushes energy onto PG&E's grid.

I don't see Tesla getting this VPP/DER thing as a means around PG&E. PG&E wants to own this stuff, and seems to be winning that battle. Heat pump or no heat pump in every home, PG&E is going to get their $$$.

 

[jrweiss98020]

Do we actually have examples of a local community solar project that is applicable as a model to emulate?

The Arlington Microgrid in WA is now operational.

Arlington Microgrid Project - Snohomish County PUD

This innovative project provides emergency power through a battery storage system, solar power, vehicle-to-grid charging.

www.snopud.com

 

[mspohr]

Just to make sure you and I are on the same page, is what Tesla calls their California VPP the same as what you're calling their California DER?

Or is Tesla doing something else with a DER that I'm not wholly aware of?

Because PG&E insists things like this Tesla VPP significantly harms poor people. To the extent PG&E wants to put a meter between the solar generation and the batteries to make sure homeowners pay their fair share for what they're using for themselves. Then PG&E wants homeowners to pay again if the VPP pushes energy onto PG&E's grid.

I don't see Tesla getting this VPP/DER thing as a means around PG&E. PG&E wants to own this stuff, and seems to be winning that battle. Heat pump or no heat pump in every home, PG&E is going to get their $$$.

Wood Mackenzie defines a VPP as a set of distributed energy resources (DERs) that are:

1. not co-located
2. able to provide distribution, generation, or transmission services
3. able to be aggregated as a single entity using a software platform

Additionally, VPPs can be an aggregation of a single type of DER or multiple types.

Of course, the utilities like PG&E see this as a threat and don't want to lose control of this power. This will be an epic battle between utilities and DERs.

 

[aesculus]

I think many of these renewables (ie solar) could satisfy all of our needs if fully deployed models are base on the current transportation model of fossil fuels. I have seen projections that the grid would need to be 3x or more if all transportation that was fossil based moved to EV. Now you might be able to say it's only going to be 2X because of the efficiency gained by more modern cars, but even still. And that is before you factor in the move to heat pumps from NG or LP. I have not seen what the projected impacts are for that but I have been using HP for 40 years and know what my loads are when they run. Even my 2021 high end variable compressor model sucks a lot of juice in heating mode.

In my own world driving and heating via heat pumps makes me a net consumer even with 10.5 kW of solar for a small family along with two PWs. I can time shift much of my load but driving is 2 or 3 times my home load for the month except in winter heating months.

And if fusion ever comes about we will go back to a centralized power grid once again so there is no sense in throwing away what we have today to move to something that is not sustainable long term IMHO.

 

[mspohr]

I think many of these renewables (ie solar) could satisfy all of our needs if fully deployed models are base on the current transportation model of fossil fuels. I have seen projections that the grid would need to be 3x or more if all transportation that was fossil based moved to EV. Now you might be able to say it's only going to be 2X because of the efficiency gained by more modern cars, but even still. And that is before you factor in the move to heat pumps from NG or LP. I have not seen what the projected impacts are for that but I have been using HP for 40 years and know what my loads are when they run. Even my 2021 high end variable compressor model sucks a lot of juice in heating mode.

In my own world driving and heating via heat pumps makes me a net consumer even with 10.5 kW of solar for a small family along with two PWs. I can time shift much of my load but driving is 2 or 3 times my home load for the month except in winter heating months.

And if fusion ever comes about we will go back to a centralized power grid once again so there is no sense in throwing away what we have today to move to something that is not sustainable long term IMHO.

The distribution grid in most areas is operating at an average very low capacity factor since it has been built for peak demand which only occurs a few hours a day. It can easily handle much larger average loads through a managed DER scheme.
The distribution grid is by definition distributed and nobody wants to throw that away. It is essential.
The debate is about the need for long distance transmission lines from large power plants.
Fusion power will always be 10 years in the future so is irrelevant.

 

[holeydonut]

The Arlington Microgrid in WA is now operational.

Arlington Microgrid Project - Snohomish County PUD

This innovative project provides emergency power through a battery storage system, solar power, vehicle-to-grid charging.

www.snopud.com

That's good to see in action. But consider what you just linked. 500 kW solar + 1 mW battery export. And a $12mm price tag. That comes out to $12 per watt on the battery export potential (I'm assuming the batteries and solar weren't meant to discharge concurrently)? Am I reading this right?

Think about @h2ofun ... he basically set up a system on his effing house that is 1/20 the scale of this system in Arlington. And he spent what... $50k?

This is why I'm saying that when left up to the IOUs, DERs PUDs, CCAs, TLAs (TLA = three letter acronyms), all these initiatives are just giant money sucks that kind of suck in the end. We need some magical form of distributed generation to really make this stuff work in a truly distributed way. Or else it'll be left up to the centralized Utilities to keep on jamming inefficient solutions while taking guaranteed profits.

 

[nwdiver]

That's good to see in action. But consider what you just linked. 500 kW solar + 1 mW battery export. And a $12mm price tag. That comes out to $12 per watt on the battery export potential (I'm assuming the batteries and solar weren't meant to discharge concurrently)? Am I reading this right?

Think about @h2ofun ... he basically set up a system on his effing house that is 1/20 the scale of this system in Arlington. And he spent what... $50k?

This is why I'm saying that when left up to the IOUs, DERs PUDs, CCAs, TLAs (TLA = three letter acronyms), all these initiatives are just giant money sucks that kind of suck in the end. We need some magical form of distributed generation to really make this stuff work in a truly distributed way. Or else it'll be left up to the centralized Utilities to keep on jamming inefficient solutions while taking guaranteed profits.

If you watch the video that $12M also includes a 'clean energy center' to educate the public on how these sites function. I agree $12M is a lot for 500kW + 1.4MWh of battery. Cost of that is usually closer to ~$2M. No doubt the building and the V2G chargers took up a sizable chunk.

But scale still works. It's cheaper per home to backup 5 homes vs 1, 50 homes vs 5 and 5,000 vs 50.

 

[mspohr]

That's good to see in action. But consider what you just linked. 500 kW solar + 1 mW battery export. And a $12mm price tag. That comes out to $12 per watt on the battery export potential (I'm assuming the batteries and solar weren't meant to discharge concurrently)? Am I reading this right?

Think about @h2ofun ... he basically set up a system on his effing house that is 1/20 the scale of this system in Arlington. And he spent what... $50k?

This is why I'm saying that when left up to the IOUs, DERs PUDs, CCAs, TLAs (TLA = three letter acronyms), all these initiatives are just giant money sucks that kind of suck in the end. We need some magical form of distributed generation to really make this stuff work in a truly distributed way. Or else it'll be left up to the centralized Utilities to keep on jamming inefficient solutions while taking guaranteed profits.

A microgrid is not a DER. A microgrid can be part of a DER.
DERs are designed to be open, transparent to create a truly distributed system.
Again, DERs only require data and communication systems.
The actual resources (batteries, solar, wind, etc.) are a different issue and everyone is free to create and join with their own solution.
Read FERC DER 2222

 

[holeydonut]

If you watch the video that $12M also includes a 'clean energy center' to educate the public on how these sites function. I agree $12M is a lot for 500kW + 1.4MWh of battery. Cost of that is usually closer to ~$2M. No doubt the building and the V2G chargers took up a sizable chunk.

But scale still works. It's cheaper per home to backup 5 homes vs 1, 50 homes vs 5 and 5,000 vs 50.

I get the feeling that if PG&E were to do this... the 1 MW trial would be $30mm. Then the 1000 MW next-phase would need $60Bn. Then the whole thing would catch fire and burn down and they'd just start over.

 

[nwdiver]

I get the feeling that if PG&E were to do this... the 1 MW trial would be $30mm. Then the 1000 MW next-phase would need $60Bn. Then the whole thing would catch fire and burn down and they'd just start over.

Ok... is the problem PG&E or 1MW micro-grids? Seems like instead of giving up on communities working together to solve problems we should fix the ability of communities to work together to solve problems....

 

[holeydonut]

Ok... is the problem PG&E or 1MW micro-grids? Seems like instead of giving up on communities working together to solve problems we should fix the ability of communities to work together to solve problems....

The problem is PG&E won't allow a community to come together and create a 1 MW micro grid... unless that community agrees to completely go off-the-IOU-grid like Roseville. I don't know what they had to pay up front for that privilege, but we aren't seeing many other cities following suit. And the state of California tends to buy into the notion that it's better to allow PG&E to make a 1,000 MW thing than open the door for a middle-of-the-ground solution.

But California previously encouraged individual homeowners to deploy the micro-est-of-micro-grids for the individual home as a compromise. Unfortunately I expect that policy ending very soon as the CPUC has aligned with the IOUs perspective that investment which benefits the micro/few/community comes at the cost of harming the many/poor.

Until we actually elect some people who think PG&E is too big and needs to be knocked into pieces; it will continue to oppose any real/useful progress at re-purposing/re-inventing what the "Grid" is.

 

[nwdiver]

Until we actually elect some people who think PG&E is too big and needs to be knocked into pieces; it will continue to oppose any real/useful progress at re-purposing/re-inventing what the "Grid" is.

Or new leadership. Do bad pilots prove planes are unsafe? Or just that bad pilots are unsafe?

 

[holeydonut]

Or new leadership. Do bad pilots prove planes are unsafe? Or just that bad pilots are unsafe?

Boeing did a pretty good job throwing those two 737 Max pilots under the bus. Or maybe the idiom is throwing them onto a plane equipped with MCAS?.

Boeing still asserts that those two pilots failed to properly inform officials of the operating range of that MCAS during testing. Of course it's 2 pilots fault... it's always the pilots fault and never leadership

As Boeing admitted in court documents, Boeing—through two of its 737 MAX Flight Technical Pilots—deceived the FAA AEG about an important aircraft part called the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) that impacted the flight control system of the Boeing 737 MAX. Because of their deception, a key document published by the FAA AEG lacked information about MCAS, and in turn, airplane manuals and pilot-training materials for U.S.-based airlines lacked information about MCAS.

 

[nwdiver]

Boeing did a pretty good job throwing those two 737 Max pilots under the bus. Or maybe the idiom is throwing them onto a plane equipped with MCAS?.

Boeing still asserts that those two pilots failed to properly inform officials of the operating range of that MCAS during testing. Of course it's 2 pilots fault... it's always the pilots fault and never leadership

And we gave up on planes after that? OR... did we take a look at where the failures occurred and fix the failures?

 

[holeydonut]

And we gave up on planes after that? OR... did we take a look at where the failures occurred and fix the failures?

I'm pretty sure we just let Boeing keep making their planes and the individual passengers just ride in the planes. Ultimately individuals don't have any power. So yeah, if the "we" in your sentence are individuals and community/groups; they've pretty much given up caring for flight and aerospace. "We" didn't do any fix.

Mega-corps and government-subsidized big-businesses own the consumer flight process. It's pretty much like what PG&E wants with energy where you live with what they cram in your face regardless if it kills you or not.

Not sure what you're trying to argue. There is no disaggregated airplane design or manufacturing to give consumers much choice. I saw some cool VTOL aircraft on StartEngine, but you know that's a lot of baloney.